Gabe Bierman

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	7	0	10	2.70	5.10	21.4%	9.5%	—	K 21.4% · BB 9.5% · FIP 5.11
2025	25	MIX2 levels	37	0	61	3.26	3.58	21.8%	13.3%	—	K 17.0% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.24
2026	26	AAMIA	33	2	62	5.55	4.28	29.4%	14.1%	—	K 23.8% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.26
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	1	0	1	5.60	5.60	20.6%	17.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIA	18	0	19	5.53	5.56	20.8%	16.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBMIA	22	0	23	5.53	5.60	20.7%	16.2%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsGrant Black (age 27) · Cameron Foster (age 25) · Taylor Grover (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 123

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%20.6%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	28	118	31	11	4	88%	3.5	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	3.6%	4.50	4.80	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	28	118	31	11	4	88%	3.5	26.3%	9.3%	16.9%	3.4%	4.50	3.92	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	19	108	469	116	49	10	86%	4.9	18.3%	13.0%	5.2%	3.2%	4.49	4.96	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	19	108	469	116	49	10	86%	4.9	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	2.1%	4.49	3.52	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	91	373	68	37	3	100%	4.8	14.0%	11.4%	2.6%	1.2%	3.46	4.03	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	91	373	68	37	3	100%	4.8	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	0.8%	3.46	3.25	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	10	42	9	4	2	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	4.8%	2.70	5.11	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	10	42	9	4	2	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	4.8%	2.70	5.11	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	10	42	9	4	2	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	4.8%	2.70	5.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	61	285	62	38	3	0%	1.6	17.0%	15.1%	1.9%	1.2%	3.26	4.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	61	285	62	38	3	0%	1.6	17.0%	15.1%	1.9%	1.2%	3.26	4.24	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	61	285	62	38	3	0%	1.6	21.8%	13.3%	8.4%	1.1%	3.26	3.58	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	33	2	62	269	79	38	9	6%	1.9	23.8%	15.5%	8.2%	4.0%	5.55	5.26	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	33	2	62	269	79	38	9	6%	1.9	23.8%	15.5%	8.2%	4.0%	5.55	5.26	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	33	2	62	269	79	38	9	6%	1.9	29.4%	14.1%	15.2%	3.3%	5.55	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.6%	17.2%	3.4%	3.1%	5.60	5.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	48	0	50	211	44	35	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	16.5%	4.2%	3.2%	5.53	5.56	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	39	0	41	175	36	28	6	0%	1.1	20.7%	16.2%	4.5%	3.3%	5.53	5.60	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	18	0	19	80	17	13	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	16.5%	4.2%	3.2%	5.53	5.56	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	22	0	23	97	20	16	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	16.2%	4.5%	3.3%	5.53	5.60	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	177	37	29	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	16.3%	4.4%	3.2%	5.53	5.20	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	139	29	0%	1.1	20.7%	16.3%	4.4%	3.2%	5.53	5.20	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		126	47	360	1556	285	207	40	37%	2.9	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	2.6%	4.15	4.65	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	26	200	865	158	115	22	37%	2.9	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	2.6%	4.15	4.65	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 62 IPFIP 4.25 → 5.26 (+1.02)K% 29.4% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.37%	—	×0.810	23.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.13%	—	×1.100	15.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.01%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.25 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 41 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.00 (+0.77)K% 22.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.68%	—	×0.770	17.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.92%	—	×1.150	16.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷1.006	×1.250	0.64%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 20 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.74 (+0.58)K% 19.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.78%	—	×0.810	16.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.09%	—	×1.100	13.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷1.103	×1.200	2.39%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 7 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.73 (+1.52)K% 16.7% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.740	12.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.180	15.73%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷0.888	×1.300	4.88%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 91 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.03 (+0.78)K% 18.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.23%	—	×0.770	14.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×1.150	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷0.817	×1.250	1.23%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AJupiter Hammerheads · 96 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.96 (+1.25)K% 24.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.71%	—	×0.740	18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.06%	—	×1.180	13.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷0.959	×1.300	3.19%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 12 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.14 (+0.57)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.885	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 18 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.80 (+1.49)K% 28.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.75%	—	×0.740	21.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.891	×1.300	3.65%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabe Bierman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	20.6%	17.2%	3.1%	—	5.58	20.7%	4.4%	91	-0.02	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	74
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	73
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	72
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	72
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	72
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	72
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	71
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	71
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	71
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	71
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	71
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	70
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	70
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	69
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	69
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	69
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	69
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	69
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	20.7%	16.7%	1.23	5.56
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*