Gabe Bierman — OGILVIE

Gabe Bierman P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%15.7%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%-0.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	28	118	31	11	4	88%	3.5	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	3.6%	4.50	4.80	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	28	118	31	11	4	88%	3.5	26.3%	9.3%	16.9%	3.4%	4.50	3.92	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	19	108	469	116	49	10	86%	4.9	18.3%	13.0%	5.2%	3.2%	4.49	4.96	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	19	108	469	116	49	10	86%	4.9	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	2.1%	4.49	3.52	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	91	373	68	37	3	100%	4.8	14.0%	11.4%	2.6%	1.2%	3.46	4.03	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	91	373	68	37	3	100%	4.8	14.0%	11.4%	2.6%	1.2%	3.46	4.03	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	91	373	68	37	3	100%	4.8	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	0.8%	3.46	3.25	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	10	42	9	4	2	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	4.8%	2.70	5.11	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	10	42	9	4	2	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	4.8%	2.70	5.11	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	10	42	9	4	2	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	4.8%	2.70	5.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	61	285	62	38	3	0%	1.6	17.0%	15.1%	1.9%	1.2%	3.26	4.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	61	285	62	38	3	0%	1.6	17.0%	15.1%	1.9%	1.2%	3.26	4.24	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	61	285	62	38	3	0%	1.6	21.8%	13.3%	8.4%	1.1%	3.26	3.58	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	33	2	62	269	79	38	9	6%	1.9	23.8%	15.5%	8.2%	4.0%	5.55	5.26	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	33	2	62	269	79	38	9	6%	1.9	23.8%	15.5%	8.2%	4.0%	5.55	5.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	MIA	33	2	62	269	79	38	9	6%	1.9	29.4%	14.1%	15.2%	3.3%	5.55	4.25	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	25	4	4	1	0%	1.0	15.7%	16.2%	-0.5%	2.6%	5.63	5.63	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	68	294	83	42	10	—	—	28.2%	14.3%	13.9%	3.3%	5.55	5.30	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	66	0	69	291	48	46	8	0%	1.0	16.5%	15.6%	0.9%	2.7%	5.52	5.53	-0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	282	48	43	8	0%	1.0	16.9%	15.3%	1.6%	2.8%	5.49	5.53	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	46	41	8	0%	1.0	17.0%	15.2%	1.8%	3.0%	5.53	5.60	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	25	0	26	110	18	17	3	0%	1.0	16.5%	15.6%	0.9%	2.7%	5.52	5.53	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	38	0	40	169	29	26	5	0%	1.1	16.9%	15.3%	1.6%	2.8%	5.49	5.53	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	43	0	45	190	32	29	6	0%	1.0	17.0%	15.2%	1.8%	3.0%	5.53	5.60	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	79	72	13	0%	1.0	16.8%	15.3%	1.5%	2.8%	5.51	5.18	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	130	23	0%	1.1	16.8%	15.3%	1.5%	2.8%	5.51	5.18	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		126	47	360	1556	285	207	40	37%	2.9	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	2.6%	4.15	4.65	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	26	200	865	158	115	22	37%	2.9	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	2.6%	4.15	4.65	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabe Bierman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	15.7%	16.2%	2.6%	—	5.55	16.8%	1.4%	200	-0.08	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	83
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	80
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	79
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	79
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.59	20.3%	8.6%	172	-1.23	2.64	280	78
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	78
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	77
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	77
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	77
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	76
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	76
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	76
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	76
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	76
Endrys Briceno R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	26	SU	4.76	14.0%	13.2%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	303	76
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	75
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	17.6%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.07	16.7%	7.2%	231	-0.56	3.52	483	75
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	75
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	75
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	16.5%	15.6%	1.06	5.54
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77