Jackson Jobe
P
Detroit Tigers
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.54
FIP4.75
xFIP5.14
SIERA5.26
K%20.4%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%9.0%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†5555
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p4624.7%
K%
p2117.9%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
SL+0.8 (31%)
SI (13%)
CU (8%)
FB-2.2 (44%)
CH-3.8 (17%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 21 | 21 | 77 | 333 | 81 | 30 | 14 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 4.8% | 3.84 | 5.54 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 16 | 16 | 64 | 258 | 84 | 6 | 9 | 24.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 2.81 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 23 | 21 | 96 | 391 | 98 | 46 | 4 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 0.9% | 2.26 | 3.50 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 10 | 10 | 49 | 218 | 39 | 27 | 7 | 17.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | DET | 14 | — | 14 | 61 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.68 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 47 | 22 | 6 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 48 | 22 | 6 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | DET | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 47 | 21 | 6 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | DET | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 45 | 21 | 6 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | DET | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | DET | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 21.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | DET | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 37 | 19 | 6 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | DET | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | DET | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 19.6% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | DET | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | DET | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 26 | 17 | 5 | 18.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 5.37 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 68 | 286 | 1200 | 249 | 125 | 40 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 3.15 | 4.50 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 48 | 200 | 839 | 174 | 87 | 28 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 3.15 | 4.50 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Jobe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.50 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 147 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.79 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .336 | 3.35 | 26.7% | 14.0% | 140 | -0.44 | 3.30 | 184 | 86 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 86 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 84 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 84 |
| Nick Mears R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 3.7% | .301 | 3.48 | 27.7% | 14.2% | 125 | -1.09 | 3.06 | 254 | 83 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 83 |
| Nick Robertson R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.19 | 23.2% | 12.6% | 167 | -0.19 | 3.43 | 281 | 83 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 83 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 83 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.64 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.22 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.42 | 1.21 | 538 | 82 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 82 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 82 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 82 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .270 | 4.50 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 164 | 81 |
| Will Vest R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 81 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .371 | 4.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 128 | +0.14 | 3.89 | 176 | 81 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 81 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 81 |
| Eli Villalobos R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.75 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | .337 | 4.99 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 153 | +1.24 | 3.75 | 198 | 81 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.035 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $4M | +$0.1M | ||