Jackson Jobe

P Detroit Tigers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX4 levels	23	21	96	2.26	3.04	25.1%	11.8%	2.8	K 21.9% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.49
2025	23	MLBDET	10	10	49	4.22	5.02	17.9%	12.4%	0.2
2026	24	MIX5 levels	14	14	61	3.38	3.34	26.4%	7.8%	1.5	K 26.4% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.00
2027PROJ	25	MLBDET	8	8	47	4.09	4.23	26.6%	9.2%	0.6
2028PROJ92% MLB	26	MLBDET	12	12	71	4.03	4.04	27.5%	9.0%	1.1
2029PROJ94% MLB	27	MLBDET	12	12	74	4.07	4.09	27.1%	9.0%	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.035First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$4M2029Arb-2$6M2030Ext$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%73

xwOBA vs60

Form3.90 ERA (proj 4.09) · K 31.9% (proj 26.6%) · BB 7.1% (proj 9.2%) ▲▲ last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsShohei Ohtani (age 24) · Landon Knack (age 25) · Dylan DeLucia (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA4.09

FIP4.23

K%26.6%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%17.4%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p7326.4%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$8M	+$5M
2029	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$8M	+$3M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$10M		$18M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	77	333	81	30	14	100%	3.7	18.1%	10.6%	7.5%	4.5%	3.84	5.41	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	77	333	81	30	14	100%	3.7	24.3%	9.0%	15.3%	4.2%	3.84	4.52	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	16	64	258	84	6	9	100%	4.0	24.7%	3.1%	21.7%	5.3%	2.81	4.30	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	16	64	258	84	6	9	100%	4.0	32.6%	2.3%	30.2%	3.5%	2.81	2.58	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	21	96	391	98	46	4	91%	4.2	21.9%	14.0%	8.0%	0.9%	2.26	3.49	+2.2
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	21	96	391	98	46	4	91%	4.2	21.9%	14.0%	8.0%	0.9%	2.26	3.49	+2.2
2024	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	21	96	391	98	46	4	91%	4.2	25.1%	11.8%	13.3%	1.0%	2.26	3.04	+2.8
2025	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	10	10	49	218	39	27	7	100%	4.9	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.4%	4.22	5.00	+0.2
2025	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	10	10	49	218	39	27	7	100%	4.9	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.4%	4.22	5.00	+0.2
2025	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	10	10	49	218	39	27	7	100%	4.9	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.2%	4.22	5.02	+0.2
2026	24	MIX MLE	5 levels	14	14	61	258	68	20	7	100%	4.4	26.4%	8.3%	18.1%	3.8%	3.38	4.00	+1.0
2026	24	MIX MLE	5 levels	14	14	61	258	68	20	7	100%	4.4	26.4%	8.3%	18.1%	3.8%	3.38	4.00	+1.0
2026	24	MIX RAW	5 levels	14	14	61	258	68	20	7	100%	4.4	26.4%	7.8%	18.6%	2.7%	3.38	3.34	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	19	99	427	92	44	14	90%	4.7	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.3%	3.91	4.41	+1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	DET	8	8	47	198	53	18	7	100%	5.9	26.6%	9.2%	17.4%	3.3%	4.09	4.23	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	77	326	90	29	11	100%	5.9	27.5%	9.0%	18.4%	3.3%	4.11	4.12	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	79	334	90	30	11	100%	6.1	27.1%	9.0%	18.1%	3.3%	4.15	4.17	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	76	322	86	29	11	100%	5.9	26.7%	9.1%	17.6%	3.4%	4.21	4.26	+1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	69	291	76	27	10	100%	6.3	26.0%	9.3%	16.7%	3.6%	4.33	4.42	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	59	250	63	24	9	100%	5.9	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	3.8%	4.51	4.62	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	48	202	49	20	8	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	4.0%	4.72	4.86	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	48	203	52	19	9	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	4.2%	4.79	4.84	+0.3
2035	33	MLB MLE	DET	6	6	35	147	37	15	7	100%	5.8	24.9%	10.0%	14.9%	4.5%	4.99	5.12	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	71	300	82	27	10	100%	5.9	27.5%	9.0%	18.4%	3.2%	4.03	4.04	+1.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	74	312	85	28	10	100%	6.2	27.1%	9.0%	18.1%	3.2%	4.07	4.09	+1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	72	304	81	28	10	100%	6.0	26.7%	9.1%	17.6%	3.3%	4.13	4.18	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	65	274	71	25	9	100%	5.9	26.0%	9.3%	16.7%	3.4%	4.25	4.34	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	56	236	60	23	9	100%	6.2	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	3.6%	4.42	4.53	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	45	190	47	19	7	100%	5.6	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	3.8%	4.63	4.77	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	46	194	50	19	8	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	4.1%	4.69	4.74	+0.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	33	139	35	14	6	100%	5.5	24.9%	10.0%	14.9%	4.3%	4.88	5.01	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	96	563	2384	604	227	83	98%	5.7	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	3.5%	4.24	4.07	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	848	215	81	30	98%	5.7	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	3.5%	4.24	4.07	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		84	82	347	1458	317	146	49	98%	4.1	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	3.4%	3.19	4.39	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	47	200	840	183	84	28	98%	4.1	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	3.4%	3.19	4.39	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 7 IPFIP 1.94 → 2.41 (+0.47)K% 24.1% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.810	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.100	7.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 2.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 74 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.49 (+0.70)K% 27.1% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.09%	—	×0.810	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.71%	—	×1.100	13.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.67%	÷0.941	×1.200	0.85%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 9 IPFIP 5.75 → 6.79 (+1.04)K% 16.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.28%	—	×0.860	14.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×0.900	10.47%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷0.792	×1.100	6.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 58).

Result: FIP 5.75 → 6.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 9 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.41 (+0.59)K% 24.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.770	18.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.150	6.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.889	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 40 IPFIP 2.89 → 4.58 (+1.69)K% 33.8% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.75%	—	×0.770	25.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.88%	—	×1.150	2.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.38%	÷0.882	×1.250	6.20%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 16 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.65 (+0.86)K% 29.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.740	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.41%	—	×1.180	5.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.216	×1.300	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 6 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.39 (+0.40)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.055	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 62 IPFIP 4.49 → 5.32 (+0.83)K% 26.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.30%	—	×0.740	19.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.26%	—	×1.180	10.93%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷1.279	×1.300	4.52%

Result: FIP 4.49 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Jobe (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.18	27.1%	18.0%	233	-0.05	—	—	—
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	77
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	74
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	74
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	72
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	72
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	71
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	71
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	71
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	70
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	70
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	70
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	69
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	69
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	68
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	68
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	68
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	68
Clarke Schmidt R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP	3.81	25.4%	7.6%	3.5%	.313	3.40	23.9%	16.4%	335	-0.41	2.77	537	68
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	67
Brandon Sproat R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.264	3.94	21.7%	11.0%	261	-0.45	3.43	377	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	59	25.5%	9.5%	1.38	4.30
Will Smith ('24)	3.3	59	27.4%	8.7%	1.16	3.85
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Dominic Leone ('24)	2.1	54	23.9%	10.4%	1.26	3.94
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Cecilio Guante ('82-'90, 6 WAR*)	3.0	66	26.6%*	9.2%*	1.30*	3.85*
Jeff Brantley ('88-'01, 9 WAR*)	4.3	72	24.3%*	10.0%*	1.43*	3.73*