Jackson Jobe P FCL Tigers
Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs ROK Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.5 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 108
ERA4.51
FIP4.73
K%23.0%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
K: +0.3 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+0KBB: -1.3 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-1BBCONTACT: -0.9 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +4.3 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+4STAMTotal WAR: +0.25 (69 IP)+0.3WAR
0.00.81.60.00.00.00.0-$15M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP70
STUF6565
CTRL5555
CMD4555
K†5560
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p4624.7%
K%
p2117.9%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
SL+0.8 (31%)
SI (13%)
CU (8%)
FB-2.2 (44%)
CH-3.8 (17%)
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   1.035 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$0.3M+0.0$0.0M-$0.3M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M
2028Arb-1$5M
2029Arb-2$9M
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.3M $-1M -$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202220MIX2 levels212177333813014100%3.718.1%10.6%7.5%4.1%3.845.16
202220MIX2 levels212177333813014100%3.724.3%9.0%15.3%4.2%3.844.52
202321MIX4 levels1616642588469100%4.024.7%3.1%21.7%5.8%2.814.60
202321MIX4 levels1616642588469100%4.032.6%2.3%30.2%3.5%2.812.58
202422MIX4 levels2321963919846491%4.221.9%14.0%8.0%0.9%2.263.52+2.0
202422MIX4 levels2321963919846491%4.225.1%11.8%13.3%1.0%2.263.04+2.5
202523MLBDetroit Tigers10104921839277100%4.917.9%12.4%5.5%3.5%4.225.08-0.3
202523MLBDetroit Tigers10104921839277100%4.917.9%12.4%5.5%3.2%4.225.02-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
202624ALakeland Flying Tigers22417500100%2.22.08
ROS24MLBDET12126527463329100%5.423.0%11.6%11.4%3.1%4.514.73-0.1
ROS24MLBDET1128210100%2.023.0%11.6%11.4%3.0%4.444.66-0.0
2026 TOT24MLBDET692916832923.4%10.9%12.5%3.0%4.364.43+0.3
2026 FULL24MLBDET2821023.0%11.6%11.4%3.0%4.444.27+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBDET22221295451345717100%5.924.5%10.5%14.0%3.1%4.454.44+1.4
202826MLBDET24241415951516118100%5.925.3%10.2%15.1%3.1%4.384.34+1.7
202927MLBDET23231395861476018100%6.025.1%10.2%15.0%3.1%4.374.37+1.7
203028MLBDET22221355691425818100%6.124.9%10.3%14.7%3.2%4.424.45+1.5
203129MLBDET21211295431325718100%6.124.4%10.5%13.9%3.4%4.544.61+1.2
203230MLBDET20201215101215518100%6.023.7%10.8%12.8%3.6%4.714.82+0.8
202725MLBDET10105724159257100%5.724.5%10.5%14.0%3.0%4.384.37+0.1
202826MLBDET1616954011024112100%5.925.3%10.2%15.1%3.0%4.314.27+1.1
202927MLBDET18181084561154614100%6.025.1%10.2%15.0%3.0%4.304.30+1.4
203028MLBDET19191144811204915100%6.024.9%10.3%14.7%3.1%4.344.37+1.4
203129MLBDET19191134771165015100%5.924.4%10.5%13.9%3.2%4.464.53+1.1
203230MLBDET18181094601095016100%6.123.7%10.8%12.8%3.4%4.634.74+0.8
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career11211065027566632918698%5.824.0%10.6%13.5%3.1%4.374.12+9.7
/ 200 IP3434200848204892698%5.824.0%10.6%13.5%3.1%4.374.12+3.0
Career727029012172541254097%4.020.9%10.3%10.6%3.3%3.134.44+3.3
/ 200 IP5048200838175862797%4.020.9%10.3%10.6%3.3%3.134.44+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jackson Jobe (OGILVIE) 4.73 23.0%11.6%3.1% 4.38 25.0%14.7%409 -0.35
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP 3.87 23.2%10.7%2.5%.239 5.71 20.0%6.1%278 +1.84 3.87 325 83
Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP 23 SP 4.85 22.0%10.4%4.2%.284 4.83 12.8%-9.4%22 -0.02 3.51 140 80
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 24 SP 4.24 18.9%10.3%2.6%.329 4.33 21.3%10.9%132 +0.09 2.63 213 77
Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP 24 SP 3.57 23.3%11.5%1.8%.269 3.64 25.1%17.3%216 +0.07 2.28 473 76
Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP 24 SP 5.06 23.6%10.4%4.8%.259 3.77 258 75
Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP 24 SP 4.65 21.1%10.2%3.7%.288 4.28 18.7%10.9%389 -0.37 3.21 630 75
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP 25 SP 4.52 19.2%11.9%2.8%.279 5.47 15.6%5.5%168 +0.95 4.52 239 75
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP 23 SP 3.66 21.5%12.3%1.5%.330 3.46 158 74
Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP 24 SP- 3.62 24.6%12.6%1.8%.312 3.26 22.7%16.2%237 -0.36 1.21 621 74
Burch Smith R 2029 · 3.94 FIP 27 SP 3.94 19.5%12.6%1.6%.234 4.41 22.2%10.5%192 +0.47 3.39 382 74
Angel Jimenez R 2025 · 3.95 FIP 23 SP 3.95 22.7%9.7%2.8%.279 3.04 194 73
Luke Gabrysh R 2025 · 5.55 FIP 23 SP 5.55 21.8%13.7%4.7%.278 4.59 138 73
Carson Seymour R 2026 · 4.11 FIP 24 SP- 4.11 19.8%10.2%2.5%.292 4.64 19.9%9.2%315 +0.53 3.28 538 73
Corbin Martin R 2025 · 4.88 FIP 23 SP 4.88 23.4%12.4%4.0%.315 5.69 19.7%8.1%143 +0.81 3.26 440 73
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 4.20 FIP 24 SP 4.20 21.9%11.4%2.8%.333 3.98 26.8%18.7%54 -0.22 3.63 209 73
Yariel Rodríguez R 2029 · 3.80 FIP 27 SP 3.80 25.1%11.8%2.4%.275 3.77 24.2%12.3%89 -0.03 2.60 196 73
Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP 24 SP 4.39 16.1%11.4%2.2%.309 4.74 18.4%9.4%172 +0.35 4.39 353 73
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.32 FIP 22 SP 4.32 21.9%11.3%3.0%.245 2.56 253 72
Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP 24 SP- 4.35 18.1%8.1%3.2%.312 4.78 14.6%6.1%291 +0.43 4.25 412 72
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP 24 SP 3.59 26.4%10.6%2.5%.333 3.20 24.9%17.2%345 -0.39 2.15 702 72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION712424.5%10.5%1.264.48
Francisco Liriano ('19)513022.3%11.2%1.094.30
Zack Godley ('20)69422.1%9.5%1.134.86
Jhoulys Chacín ('22)710819.4%9.3%1.134.51
Héctor Santiago ('21)69920.3%10.5%1.564.48
Vince Velasquez ('23)98524.9%9.3%1.484.88
Jimmy Nelson ('21)511722.2%9.1%0.974.08