Jackson Jobe — OGILVIE

Jackson Jobe P Detroit Tigers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.15

FIP4.34

K%22.1%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p1019.2%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

SL+0.8 (31%)

SI (13%)

CU (8%)

FB-2.2 (44%)

CH-3.8 (17%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$5M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$8M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$11M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$9M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	77	333	81	30	14	100%	3.7	18.1%	10.6%	7.5%	4.5%	3.84	5.41	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	77	333	81	30	14	100%	3.7	24.3%	9.0%	15.3%	4.2%	3.84	4.52	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	16	64	258	84	6	9	100%	4.0	24.7%	3.1%	21.7%	5.3%	2.81	4.30	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	16	64	258	84	6	9	100%	4.0	24.7%	3.1%	21.7%	5.3%	2.81	4.30	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	16	64	258	84	6	9	100%	4.0	32.6%	2.3%	30.2%	3.5%	2.81	2.58	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	21	96	391	98	46	4	91%	4.2	21.9%	14.0%	8.0%	0.9%	2.26	3.49	+1.6
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	21	96	391	98	46	4	91%	4.2	21.9%	14.0%	8.0%	0.9%	2.26	3.49	+1.6
2024	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	21	96	391	98	46	4	91%	4.2	25.1%	11.8%	13.3%	1.0%	2.26	3.04	+2.2
2025	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	10	10	49	218	39	27	7	100%	4.9	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.4%	4.22	5.00	-0.1
2025	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	10	10	49	218	39	27	7	100%	4.9	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.4%	4.22	5.00	-0.1
2025	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	10	10	49	218	39	27	7	100%	4.9	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.2%	4.22	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	16	81	359	67	40	12	89%	4.5	18.7%	11.1%	7.5%	3.3%	4.09	4.85	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	11	11	44	190	43	16	5	100%	4.0	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	4.2%	3.50	4.85	+0.0
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	11	11	44	190	43	16	5	100%	4.0	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	4.2%	3.50	4.85	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	DET	1	1	3	11	4	0	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.03	—
2026	24	A RAW	DET	1	1	1	6	1	0	0	100%	1.3	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	1.69	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	DET	1	1	4	19	5	2	0	100%	4.0	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.21	—
2026	24	AA RAW	DET	2	2	7	29	7	2	0	100%	3.5	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	0.0%	1.29	1.94	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	DET	6	6	28	125	26	12	5	100%	4.7	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	4.0%	4.45	4.76	+0.0
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	DET	6	6	28	125	26	12	5	100%	4.7	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	4.0%	4.45	4.76	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	8	35	8	4	1	100%	8.4	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	3.1%	4.15	4.34	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	DET	1	1	8	34	7	4	1	100%	8.0	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	3.0%	4.08	4.27	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	52	225	51	20	6	—	—	22.6%	8.8%	13.7%	2.7%	3.61	4.77	-0.1
FULL	24	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	37	155	51	20	6	—	—	32.8%	12.9%	19.9%	3.9%	5.10	4.10	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	112	472	116	48	15	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.1%	14.4%	3.2%	4.48	4.44	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	21	21	124	522	135	52	17	100%	5.9	25.8%	9.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.36	4.30	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	122	514	132	51	17	100%	6.1	25.6%	9.9%	15.7%	3.2%	4.34	4.33	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	118	499	127	50	17	100%	5.9	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	3.3%	4.38	4.41	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	113	476	118	49	16	100%	5.9	24.8%	10.2%	14.6%	3.5%	4.50	4.58	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	106	448	108	47	16	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	3.7%	4.67	4.78	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	99	417	97	45	16	100%	6.2	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	3.9%	4.88	5.01	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	DET	18	18	106	448	110	45	14	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.1%	14.4%	3.1%	4.41	4.37	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	20	20	118	498	129	49	15	100%	5.9	25.8%	9.9%	15.9%	3.0%	4.29	4.23	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	116	490	126	48	15	100%	6.1	25.6%	9.9%	15.7%	3.1%	4.27	4.26	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	112	473	120	47	15	100%	5.9	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	3.2%	4.30	4.33	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	DET	18	18	107	452	112	46	15	100%	5.9	24.8%	10.2%	14.6%	3.3%	4.42	4.50	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	DET	17	17	101	426	103	45	15	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	3.5%	4.58	4.69	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	94	397	93	43	15	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	3.7%	4.79	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		146	144	843	3575	866	368	116	99%	5.8	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	3.3%	4.39	4.15	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	848	205	87	28	99%	5.8	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	3.3%	4.39	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		81	79	330	1390	288	143	47	98%	4.1	20.7%	10.3%	10.5%	3.4%	3.19	4.52	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	48	200	843	175	87	29	98%	4.1	20.7%	10.3%	10.5%	3.4%	3.19	4.52	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Jobe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	22.9%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.35	25.4%	15.4%	357	-0.33	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	80
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	80
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	77
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	77
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	76
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	76
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	75
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	75
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	75
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	75
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	74
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	74
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	74
Cam Sanders R 2021 · 5.39 FIP	24	SP	5.39	22.5%	12.5%	4.7%	.265	4.77	23.9%	7.4%	217	-0.62	3.43	516	73
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	73
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.55	18.9%	9.6%	348	+0.59	3.39	572	73
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	73
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	111	24.7%	10.3%	1.30	4.50
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45