Shane Smith — OGILVIE

Shane Smith P Charlotte Knights

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.1 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.78

FIP3.82

K%23.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

SI (14%)

CU (24%)

FB-1.9 (47%)

CH-2.3 (18%)

SL-3.1 (11%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$6M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$14M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	3	3	3	17	4	3	0	100%	1.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	0.0%	6.00	3.35	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Gold	3	3	3	17	4	3	0	100%	1.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	0.0%	6.00	3.43	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	60	232	86	21	5	0%	1.6	28.1%	10.4%	17.7%	2.7%	1.96	3.52	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	60	232	86	21	5	0%	1.6	28.1%	10.4%	17.7%	2.7%	1.96	3.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	60	232	86	21	5	0%	1.6	37.1%	9.1%	28.0%	2.2%	1.96	2.36	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	94	382	113	29	6	50%	2.9	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	1.7%	3.05	3.01	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	94	382	113	29	6	50%	2.9	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	1.7%	3.05	3.01	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	16	94	382	113	29	6	50%	2.9	29.6%	7.6%	22.0%	1.6%	3.05	2.45	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	29	146	616	145	57	17	100%	5.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.7%	3.81	3.77	+2.0
2025	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	29	146	616	145	57	17	100%	5.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.7%	3.81	3.77	+2.0
2025	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	29	29	146	616	145	57	17	100%	5.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.8%	3.81	3.80	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	32	155	665	156	66	18	100%	4.8	23.5%	9.9%	13.5%	2.7%	4.19	3.88	+1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	23	17	63	302	71	47	4	74%	2.8	18.5%	13.9%	4.6%	1.4%	6.54	4.07	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	23	17	63	302	71	47	4	74%	2.8	18.5%	13.9%	4.6%	1.4%	6.54	4.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	CWS	2	2	5	20	8	2	0	100%	2.4	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	0.0%	5.79	0.99	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CWS	18	12	50	233	52	36	3	67%	2.8	22.3%	15.5%	6.9%	1.3%	5.90	3.88	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	CWS	3	3	8	49	11	9	1	100%	2.8	22.4%	18.4%	4.1%	2.0%	10.80	4.65	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CWS	3	3	8	49	11	9	1	100%	2.8	22.4%	18.4%	4.1%	2.0%	10.80	4.65	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CWS	2	2	13	55	13	5	2	100%	6.6	23.9%	9.7%	14.2%	2.7%	3.78	3.82	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CWS	2	2	13	55	13	5	2	100%	6.5	23.9%	9.7%	14.2%	2.8%	3.80	3.84	+0.2
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	76	357	84	52	6	—	—	23.6%	14.7%	8.9%	1.5%	6.06	4.03	+0.6
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	21	91	84	52	6	—	—	93.0%	57.8%	35.2%	6.1%	21.62	5.93	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	148	625	153	66	17	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.7%	4.22	4.25	+1.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	148	625	152	66	18	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.29	4.33	+1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	24	24	141	597	142	65	18	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	3.0%	4.41	4.49	+0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	133	561	129	63	18	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	3.2%	4.59	4.70	+0.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	124	523	117	60	18	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	3.4%	4.80	4.93	-0.0
2032	32	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	115	484	104	58	18	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	3.7%	5.03	5.19	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	141	595	146	62	17	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.8%	4.25	4.28	+1.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	141	595	145	63	17	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.32	4.36	+0.9
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	134	566	134	61	17	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	3.1%	4.44	4.52	+0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	126	532	123	59	17	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.73	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	118	498	111	57	17	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.83	4.96	-0.0
2032	32	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	109	460	99	55	17	100%	6.1	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	3.7%	5.07	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	163	936	3965	926	430	123	100%	5.7	23.4%	10.8%	12.5%	3.1%	4.49	4.20	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	847	198	92	26	100%	5.7	23.4%	10.8%	12.5%	3.1%	4.49	4.20	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		125	65	367	1549	363	157	34	52%	2.9	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.2%	3.80	3.60	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	35	200	845	198	86	18	52%	2.9	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.2%	3.80	3.60	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	24.8%	9.3%	2.8%	—	4.35	24.2%	13.5%	438	+0.27	—	—	—
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	670	72
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	71
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	69
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	68
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	26	SW	3.22	21.3%	8.8%	1.5%	.330	4.62	18.0%	7.3%	110	+1.40	3.22	221	68
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	23.3%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.74	22.5%	9.1%	172	-0.90	3.29	461	67
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	67
Bryce Jarvis R 2023 · 4.18 FIP	25	SP-	4.18	18.9%	10.3%	2.5%	.281	5.02	16.6%	6.0%	224	+0.84	4.18	533	67
Adam Warren R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	27	SW	3.32	19.5%	7.1%	1.8%	.272	3.72	21.9%	14.4%	174	+0.40	2.72	392	66
Tyler Guilfoil R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	23	SP-	3.18	26.0%	12.3%	1.3%	.305	5.52	17.8%	4.4%	190	+2.34	3.18	274	66
Nick Pivetta R 2019 · 4.36 FIP	26	SW	4.36	23.9%	10.2%	3.6%	.290	4.29	24.4%	15.0%	350	-0.07	1.37	1,583	65
Kutter Crawford R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP-	4.47	21.9%	7.7%	4.1%	.316	4.15	24.1%	17.4%	313	-0.32	3.30	741	65
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	65
Adrian Houser R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	26	SP-	3.45	25.1%	7.2%	2.9%	.279	4.09	16.8%	6.7%	301	+0.64	3.45	1,221	65
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	65
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.07	21.2%	12.4%	191	-0.44	3.35	451	65
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	65
Deck McGuire R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	18.2%	6.2%	2.4%	.301	4.44	18.9%	9.2%	411	+0.75	3.41	622	64
Louis Varland R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	22.7%	6.4%	3.9%	.309	3.34	25.0%	18.0%	279	-0.78	1.69	684	64
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	135	23.5%	10.8%	1.19	4.46
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67