Shane Smith
P
Chicago White Sox
+0.7
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.5 · 2027
ERA4.05
FIP4.20
xFIP5.76
SIERA5.40
K%23.6%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.5%
IP146
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p6527.7%
K%
p5723.5%
xwOBA vs
p520.310
SI (14%)
CU (24%)
FB-1.9 (47%)
CH-2.3 (18%)
SL-3.1 (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 38 | 0 | 60 | 232 | 86 | 21 | 5 | 28.1% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 1.96 | 3.53 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 32 | 16 | 94 | 382 | 113 | 29 | 6 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 3.05 | 2.98 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 29 | 29 | 146 | 616 | 145 | 57 | 17 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 3.89 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 4 | 4 | 12 | 66 | 16 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.49 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 58 | 261 | 64 | 28 | 7 | 24.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 5.20 | 3.25 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 547 | 133 | 56 | 15 | 24.4% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 124 | 53 | 14 | 24.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.30 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 110 | 463 | 111 | 48 | 13 | 23.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 97 | 44 | 12 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 85 | 40 | 11 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.56 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 81 | 34 | 10 | 24.1% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.41 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 70 | 30 | 9 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 27 | 9 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 42 | 22 | 7 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 52 | 316 | 1313 | 323 | 125 | 32 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 3.48 | 3.55 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 33 | 200 | 832 | 205 | 79 | 20 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 3.48 | 3.55 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.12 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.31 | 24.2% | 13.9% | 360 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 70 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 68 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 68 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 67 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 67 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 62 | +1.27 | 3.36 | 206 | 67 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 67 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 67 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.13 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 0.9% | .268 | 3.36 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 25 | +0.23 | 3.13 | 179 | 66 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 66 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 66 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 66 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.17 | 2.57 | 167 | 66 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 66 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2029 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 66 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.88 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .320 | 4.35 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 259 | +0.47 | 3.73 | 399 | 66 |
| Anthony Vizcaya R 2025 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.22 | 21.9% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .259 | 7.22 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 13 | +4.00 | 3.22 | 115 | 66 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.38 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 1.1% | .249 | 3.34 | 22.4% | 14.4% | 133 | -0.04 | 3.08 | 205 | 66 |
| Seth Simmons R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 66 |
| Ryan Shreve R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .332 | 5.13 | 11.6% | 0.4% | 59 | +1.16 | 3.15 | 290 | 65 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $12M | +$12M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $3M | +1.4 | $12M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.2 | $10M | +$6M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $13M | $42M | +$29M | ||