Shane Smith
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 240 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 2.1 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10394vR 84
ERA3.60
FIP3.64
K%25.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%15.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (14%)
CU (24%)
FB-1.9 (47%)
CH-2.3 (18%)
SL-3.1 (11%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 17.6% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 3.35 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 17.6% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 3.43 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 60 | 232 | 86 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.1% | 10.4% | 17.7% | 2.6% | 1.96 | 3.44 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 60 | 232 | 86 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 37.1% | 9.1% | 28.0% | 2.2% | 1.96 | 2.36 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 16 | 94 | 382 | 113 | 29 | 6 | 50% | 2.9 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 1.5% | 3.05 | 2.87 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 16 | 94 | 382 | 113 | 29 | 6 | 50% | 2.9 | 29.6% | 7.6% | 22.0% | 1.6% | 3.05 | 2.45 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 29 | 29 | 146 | 616 | 145 | 57 | 17 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 3.75 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 29 | 29 | 146 | 616 | 145 | 57 | 17 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.80 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 10 | 10 | 31 | 146 | 42 | 20 | 2 | 100% | 3.1 | 26.3% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 1.4% | 6.46 | 3.22 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.0% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 3.64 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 69 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.0% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 2.7% | 3.63 | 3.67 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 95 | 420 | 110 | 46 | 9 | — | — | 26.3% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 4.52 | 3.51 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 73 | 309 | 110 | 46 | 9 | — | — | 35.8% | 14.9% | 20.8% | 3.0% | 5.92 | 3.63 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 153 | 66 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.23 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 152 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 141 | 597 | 142 | 65 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.47 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 133 | 561 | 129 | 63 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.68 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 124 | 523 | 117 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.91 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 146 | 62 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.26 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 145 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.34 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 134 | 61 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 123 | 59 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 111 | 57 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 158 | 158 | 879 | 3724 | 883 | 396 | 110 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.07 | +13.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 847 | 201 | 90 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 112 | 58 | 334 | 1393 | 345 | 133 | 30 | 52% | 3.0 | 24.8% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 3.53 | 3.40 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 35 | 200 | 834 | 207 | 80 | 18 | 52% | 3.0 | 24.8% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 3.53 | 3.40 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.33 | 24.2% | 13.5% | 438 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 71 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 70 |
| Louis Varland R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.44 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .329 | 2.26 | 29.3% | 22.5% | 122 | -2.18 | 1.21 | 660 | 68 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.25 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.63 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.38 | 3.25 | 221 | 67 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 67 |
| Adam Warren R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .272 | 3.73 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.71 | 392 | 65 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.81 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.45 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 411 | +0.64 | 3.23 | 622 | 65 |
| Michael Bowden R 2028 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 65 |
| Kutter Crawford R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.08 | 24.1% | 17.4% | 313 | -0.39 | 3.35 | 741 | 65 |
| Nick Pivetta R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.47 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 4.22 | 24.4% | 15.0% | 350 | -0.25 | 1.18 | 1,578 | 65 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 64 |
| Carlos Martinez R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.09 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 1.0% | .277 | 3.86 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 151 | +0.77 | 2.49 | 849 | 64 |
| Adrian Houser R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.58 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 3.1% | .279 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 6.7% | 301 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 1,191 | 64 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 64 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.64 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.74 | 459 | 64 |
| Will Schomberg R 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.84 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 63 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .324 | 3.73 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 114 | +0.16 | 3.57 | 230 | 63 |
| Mike Baumann R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .336 | 4.23 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 123 | +0.67 | 2.98 | 559 | 63 |
| Carson Seymour R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.76 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .277 | 4.15 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 67 | -0.61 | 3.28 | 538 | 63 |
| Mike Clevinger R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.60 | 26.5% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .274 | 3.13 | 28.3% | 20.3% | 368 | -0.47 | 2.28 | 1,227 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 132 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 1.14 | 4.38 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |