Shane Smith

P Charlotte Knights

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.8 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	32	16	94	3.05	2.45	29.6%	7.6%	—	K 24.3% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.01
2025	25	MLBCWS	29	29	146	3.81	3.80	23.5%	9.3%	2.8
2026	26	MIX3 levels	26	17	66	6.24	3.90	23.3%	15.7%	1.2	K 19.0% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	23	23	136	4.16	4.28	23.6%	10.9%	1.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBCWS	16	16	93	4.31	4.39	23.5%	11.0%	1.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBCWS	12	12	71	4.46	4.55	22.9%	11.2%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.081First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Arb-3$2M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45Command50FB velo55

CompsSam Lewis (age 27) · John Ely (age 25) · Tyler Yates (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.16

FIP4.28

K%23.6%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$14M	+$14M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$27M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	3	3	3	17	4	3	0	100%	1.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	0.0%	6.00	3.35	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Gold	3	3	3	17	4	3	0	100%	1.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	0.0%	6.00	3.43	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	60	232	86	21	5	0%	1.6	28.1%	10.4%	17.7%	2.7%	1.96	3.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	60	232	86	21	5	0%	1.6	37.1%	9.1%	28.0%	2.2%	1.96	2.36	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	94	382	113	29	6	50%	2.9	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	1.7%	3.05	3.01	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	94	382	113	29	6	50%	2.9	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	1.7%	3.05	3.01	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	16	94	382	113	29	6	50%	2.9	29.6%	7.6%	22.0%	1.6%	3.05	2.45	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	29	146	616	145	57	17	100%	5.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.7%	3.81	3.77	+2.9
2025	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	29	146	616	145	57	17	100%	5.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.7%	3.81	3.77	+2.9
2025	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	29	29	146	616	145	57	17	100%	5.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.8%	3.81	3.80	+2.8
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	66	313	73	49	4	65%	2.6	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	1.4%	6.24	4.01	+1.1
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	66	313	73	49	4	65%	2.6	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	1.4%	6.24	4.01	+1.1
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	17	66	313	73	49	4	65%	2.6	23.3%	15.7%	7.7%	1.3%	6.24	3.90	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	32	155	665	156	66	18	100%	4.8	23.5%	9.9%	13.5%	2.7%	4.19	3.88	+2.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	23	23	136	574	135	62	15	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.9%	12.7%	2.6%	4.16	4.28	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	97	411	96	45	11	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.0%	12.4%	2.7%	4.28	4.36	+1.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	74	314	72	35	9	100%	6.2	22.9%	11.2%	11.6%	2.8%	4.43	4.52	+0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	58	246	55	28	7	100%	5.8	22.2%	11.6%	10.6%	3.0%	4.61	4.73	+0.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	CWS	7	7	44	187	40	22	6	100%	6.3	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.82	4.96	+0.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	CWS	5	5	32	134	28	17	5	100%	6.4	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	3.5%	5.06	5.22	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	93	393	92	43	11	100%	5.8	23.5%	11.0%	12.4%	2.7%	4.31	4.39	+1.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	71	300	69	34	9	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.2%	11.6%	2.9%	4.46	4.55	+0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	55	232	51	27	7	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.6%	10.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.76	+0.4
2031	31	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	42	177	38	21	6	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	3.3%	4.85	4.99	+0.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	CWS	5	5	30	127	26	16	5	100%	6.0	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	3.6%	5.09	5.25	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	80	446	1893	432	206	55	100%	5.6	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	2.9%	4.44	4.14	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	850	194	92	25	100%	5.5	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	2.9%	4.44	4.14	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		128	65	370	1560	366	159	34	51%	2.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	2.2%	3.77	3.59	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	35	200	844	198	86	18	51%	2.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	2.2%	3.77	3.59	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 53 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.01 (+0.13)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.13%	—	×0.860	19.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.57%	—	×0.900	14.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 5 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.96 (+0.97)K% 40.0% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.770	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 88 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.01 (+0.57)K% 29.9% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.94%	—	×0.810	24.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.34%	—	×1.100	8.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.198	×1.200	1.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 7 IPFIP 2.35 → 2.51 (+0.16)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×0.900	9.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.909	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.35 → 2.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 31 IPFIP 2.04 → 3.40 (+1.35)K% 40.3% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.32%	—	×0.740	29.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×1.180	9.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷1.072	×1.300	2.93%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 26 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.67 (+1.07)K% 33.7% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.66%	—	×0.770	25.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.90%	—	×1.150	11.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.033	×1.250	2.40%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	23.6%	10.9%	2.6%	—	4.51	22.9%	11.7%	230	+0.23	—	—	—
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	70
John Ely R 2011 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	23.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	113	62
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	62
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	62
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	62
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	62
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	61
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	235	61
Tylor Megill R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	27	SP-	3.70	25.5%	6.5%	3.5%	.302	3.88	22.8%	12.8%	359	+0.18	3.02	603	61
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	60
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	60
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	60
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	60
Kyle Wright R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	27	SP-	4.41	21.9%	11.0%	3.2%	.354	5.09	19.7%	6.4%	13	+0.68	3.32	669	59
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	59
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	59
Jake Lee R 2022 · 3.27 FIP	27	SP-	3.27	16.8%	7.1%	1.3%	.338	5.88	15.9%	9.6%	93	+2.61	2.78	181	59
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	59
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	59
Cody Sedlock R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	27	SW	4.21	20.1%	13.0%	2.1%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	378	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	85	23.0%	11.0%	1.08	4.36
Dick Kelley ('64-'71, 3 WAR*)	2.6	87	21.4%*	10.6%*	1.04*	4.26*
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78