Jac Caglianone — OGILVIE

Jac CaglianoneRF Kansas City Royals

Age 23 L/L 6'4" / 250 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 0.686 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION349 act + 232 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 8352vR 40

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .308 / .437

PA232

HR10

K%27

BB%7

BABIP296

ISO195

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 49 / POW 72

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT49

Whiff%

905.2%

xwOBA

800.343

POWER72

Barrel%

8613.6

Avg EV

8691.6

Bat Spd

9076.0

EYE35

Chase%

9016.5%

SPEED40

Sprint

4227.1

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 315 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

226

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

267

258

◀L

ISO

172

118

◀◀L

BABIP

222

224

—

27.0%

23.4%

▶R

BB%

4.5%

8.8%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.686 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.7	$3M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$10M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$9M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+1.4	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$20M		$50M	+$37M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	2 teams	—	226	212	40	10	1	3	8	60	4	4	1	189	232	288	520	99	245	27	4	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	2 teams	—	226	205	49	13	1	7	15	45	4	4	1	239	304	415	718	176	271	20	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	3 teams	—	536	485	110	19	1	24	38	121	8	4	1	227	294	419	712	192	249	23	7	310	95	-3	+0	-7	-6	+15	0.0
2025	22	MLB	3 teams	—	536	474	122	20	1	27	49	109	8	4	1	257	337	475	812	217	277	20	9	355	130	+18	+0	-7	-6	+15	2.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	MLB	KC	—	349	319	83	15	2	15	25	102	4	3	1	260	322	461	783	201	335	29	7	341	119	+7	+0	+1	-4	+10	1.5
YTD	23	MLB	KC	—	349	319	83	15	2	15	25	102	4	3	1	260	322	461	783	201	335	29	7	345	122	+9	+0	+1	-4	+10	1.6
ROS	23	MLB	KC	100%	232	210	51	9	1	10	17	63	3	2	1	242	308	437	745	195	298	27	7	327	108	+2	+0	-3	-2	+7	0.4
ROS	23	MLB	KC	100%	233	211	50	9	1	9	17	63	3	2	1	237	303	417	720	180	294	27	7	313	98	-1	+0	-3	-2	+7	0.1
FULL	23	MLB	KC	—	582	530	133	24	3	24	42	165	7	5	2	251	314	443	758	192	318	28	7	330	110	+7	+0	-2	-6	+16	1.5
TOT	23	MLB	KC	—	581	529	134	24	3	25	42	165	7	5	2	253	316	451	767	198	319	28	7	335	115	+10	+0	-2	-6	+16	1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	KC	65%	570	516	127	22	3	25	42	154	7	5	2	246	312	446	757	200	298	27	7	332	112	+8	+0	-7	-6	+16	1.1
2028	25	MLB	KC	65%	559	505	127	22	3	27	42	150	7	5	2	251	318	467	785	216	299	27	8	341	119	+12	+0	-7	-6	+16	1.6
2029	26	MLB	KC	65%	547	494	123	21	2	26	41	147	7	5	1	249	315	457	773	209	299	27	7	342	120	+12	+1	-7	-6	+15	1.6
2030	27	MLB	KC	65%	539	486	121	21	2	26	41	145	7	5	1	249	316	461	777	212	299	27	8	342	120	+12	+1	-6	-6	+15	1.6
2031	28	MLB	KC	65%	531	478	120	21	2	26	41	143	7	4	1	251	319	467	786	215	298	27	8	340	119	+11	+0	-7	-6	+15	1.4
2032	29	MLB	KC	65%	519	468	116	20	2	25	40	141	6	4	1	248	315	459	775	212	297	27	8	338	117	+10	+0	-8	-6	+15	1.2
2033	30	MLB	KC	65%	507	456	112	19	2	24	40	139	6	4	1	246	315	454	769	208	295	27	8	335	115	+8	+0	-8	-5	+14	1.0
2034	31	MLB	KC	65%	495	447	108	18	2	23	39	137	6	3	1	242	311	445	756	204	291	28	8	330	111	+6	+0	-9	-5	+14	0.6
2035	32	MLB	KC	65%	485	438	103	17	1	22	38	137	6	2	1	235	305	429	734	194	286	28	8	323	106	+3	+0	-9	-5	+14	0.2
2036	33	MLB	KC	65%	443	401	91	15	1	19	34	127	5	2	1	227	295	411	707	185	280	29	8	315	99	-0	+0	-10	-5	+13	-0.2
2037	34	MLB	KC	60%	397	360	79	12	1	17	30	116	4	1	0	219	287	400	687	181	271	29	8	305	91	-4	+0	-10	-4	+11	-0.7
2038	35	MLB	KC	56%	343	310	65	9	1	14	26	103	4	1	0	210	279	381	660	171	262	30	8	293	82	-7	+0	-10	-4	+10	-1.1
2027	24	MLB	KC	65%	370	335	82	14	2	16	27	100	5	3	1	245	311	442	752	197	294	27	7	318	101	+0	+0	-4	-4	+10	0.3
2028	25	MLB	KC	65%	363	328	82	14	2	17	27	97	5	3	1	250	317	460	777	210	295	27	7	326	108	+3	+0	-4	-4	+10	0.6
2029	26	MLB	KC	65%	356	322	81	14	2	17	27	95	4	3	1	252	317	466	783	214	295	27	8	327	108	+3	+0	-4	-4	+10	0.6
2030	27	MLB	KC	65%	350	316	78	13	2	16	27	94	4	3	1	247	314	453	767	206	294	27	8	327	108	+3	+0	-4	-4	+10	0.6
2031	28	MLB	KC	65%	345	311	76	13	1	16	27	93	4	3	1	244	313	447	760	203	294	27	8	326	108	+3	+0	-5	-4	+10	0.5
2032	29	MLB	KC	65%	337	304	74	13	1	16	26	92	4	3	1	243	311	451	762	207	292	27	8	324	106	+2	+0	-5	-4	+10	0.4
2033	30	MLB	KC	65%	330	297	71	12	1	15	26	91	4	2	1	239	309	438	747	199	290	28	8	321	104	+1	+0	-5	-4	+9	0.2
2034	31	MLB	KC	65%	322	290	68	11	1	14	25	89	4	2	1	234	304	424	728	190	287	28	8	316	100	+0	+0	-6	-3	+9	-0.0
2035	32	MLB	KC	65%	315	283	66	11	1	14	25	89	4	2	0	233	304	428	732	194	282	28	8	310	95	-2	+0	-6	-3	+9	-0.2
2036	33	MLB	KC	65%	288	261	58	9	1	12	22	83	3	1	0	222	290	402	693	180	276	29	8	302	89	-4	+0	-6	-3	+8	-0.5
2037	34	MLB	KC	60%	240	217	47	7	1	10	18	70	3	1	0	217	286	396	682	180	268	29	8	292	81	-5	+0	-6	-3	+7	-0.7
2038	35	MLB	KC	56%	192	173	36	5	1	7	15	58	2	0	0	208	279	370	649	162	259	30	8	280	73	-6	+0	-5	-2	+5	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4273	3858	902	151	18	186	327	1166	53	29	9	234	303	427	729	193	283	27	8	312	97	-15	+2	-71	-49	+121	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	137	23	3	28	50	177	8	4	1	233	302	426	728	193	283	27	8	312	97	-2	+0	-11	-7	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	6929	6266	1493	255	25	311	517	1883	87	51	15	238	305	436	741	198	287	27	7	325	107	+55	+4	-106	-74	+196	7.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	140	24	2	29	48	177	8	5	1	238	304	434	738	196	288	27	7	325	107	+5	+1	-10	-7	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	116	28	9	1	2	7	26	3	2	0	241	302	388	690	147	295	21	6	309	94	-1	+0	—	—	+4	0.3
2024	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	100	89	21	4	0	5	8	19	1	2	1	236	306	449	756	213	239	19	8	327	109	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	22	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	232	210	33	6	1	7	18	52	4	1	0	157	237	295	532	138	172	22	8	244	45	-14	+0	-7	-6	+7	-2.1
2025	22	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	129	112	40	6	0	11	12	20	3	1	0	357	433	705	1.138	348	349	16	9	481	226	+18	+0	—	—	+4	2.3
2025	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	175	152	49	8	0	9	19	37	1	2	1	322	401	553	954	230	367	21	11	411	173	+14	+0	—	—	+5	2.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	232	210	33	6	1	7	18	52	4	1	0	157	237	295	532	138	172	22	8	244	45	-14	+0	-7	-6	+7	-2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	13	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	/162	664	32	7	245	314	469	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#2Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	9	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
	/162	664	39	3	242	314	491	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	4,965	221	36	238	303	436	-53	-38	12.2	10.9
	/162	664	30	5	238	303	436	-7.1	-5.1	1.6	pk7: 10
#3Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#4Eddie Rosariolast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,347 PA	10	4,347	169	65	262	298	450	-47	-39	7.0	8.7
	/162	664	26	10	262	298	450	-7.1	-6.0	1.1	pk7: 10
#5Mitch Hanigerlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,089 PA	8	3,089	130	19	250	324	448	-31	-36	7.8	8.4
	/162	664	28	4	250	324	448	-6.7	-7.8	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jac Caglianone (OGILVIE)	23	45→49	67→72	40	35	253/316/451	198	319	25	5	28%	7%	115	+1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2014 · MLB	23	49→51	56→60	42→45	42	250/306/446	196	324	24	4	30%	7%	111	+2.5	228/287/413	185	293	24	3	30%	6%	95	+1.4	215/292/414	198	292	26	3	34%	8%	95	+0.7
●Matt Adams 2013 · MLB	24	49→57	57→65	45→40	41	259/293/454	196	298	26	4	24%	4%	108	+2.3	271/310/454	183	324	22	4	23%	5%	115	+2.7	252/312/487	235	279	33	0	23%	7%	118	+1.8
●Franmil Reyes 2019 · MLB	24	47→51	57→65	41→45	43	249/304/442	193	313	27	3	29%	7%	110	+2.4	254/319/482	228	316	33	3	29%	9%	126	+3.5	252/322/498	246	306	37	2	30%	9%	128	+2.5
●Jay Bruce 2009 · MLB	22	51→54	56→65	46→50	41	263/308/461	199	329	23	9	28%	6%	115	+2.8	256/323/463	207	300	27	8	23%	9%	122	+3.3	254/334/472	219	297	28	7	24%	10%	119	+3.1
★Chris Davis 2010 · MLB	24	49→53	60→70	43→40	39	256/303/470	214	332	28	4	32%	6%	116	+2.8	246/295/426	180	332	23	4	32%	6%	102	+1.8	238/337/508	269	291	38	3	31%	12%	131	+4.0
●Eloy Jiménez 2020 · MLB	23	49→56	58→65	42→40	42	259/302/461	202	301	28	2	25%	6%	114	+2.7	264/312/464	200	315	28	2	25%	6%	118	+3.0	268/322/458	191	318	27	0	24%	7%	119	+1.5
●Randal Grichuk 2016 · MLB	24	45→50	57→70	47→45	38	237/281/443	206	295	24	8	29%	5%	100	+1.7	241/289/476	235	297	29	7	29%	6%	112	+2.6	237/287/481	244	284	32	5	29%	5%	111	+2.1
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	46	56→60	42→45	44	239/302/433	194	316	24	4	31%	8%	105	+2.1	232/302/422	190	306	24	3	31%	9%	103	+1.9	238/310/455	217	291	31	4	29%	9%	108	+2.1
●Chris Carter 2010 · AAA	23	47→54	58→65	46→45	46	243/315/447	204	309	26	7	29%	9%	115	+2.8	232/305/435	203	297	26	5	30%	9%	108	+2.3	213/311/464	252	256	36	3	32%	11%	114	+2.5
●Matt Joyce 2009 · MLB	24	44→53	53→60	39→50	46	227/292/411	183	284	20	4	27%	8%	96	+1.5	239/319/430	191	290	21	10	24%	10%	112	+2.6	250/345/452	202	293	22	9	22%	12%	121	+2.5
●Rowdy Tellez 2020 · MLB	25	45→50	53→65	43→45	44	237/296/413	176	287	22	5	26%	7%	98	+1.6	247/315/462	215	277	29	3	22%	8%	120	+3.1	239/317/473	234	248	33	1	20%	9%	114	+1.7
✕Travis Snider 2011 · MLB	23	48→53	56→60	43→50	44	249/306/441	192	315	24	8	29%	8%	110	+2.4	247/304/388	141	315	14	13	25%	7%	95	+1.4	250/320/395	145	307	17	5	23%	9%	99	+1.1
★Rafael Devers 2019 · MLB	22	47→57	55→65	45	44	246/295/430	184	292	24	7	25%	7%	102	+1.9	271/326/491	220	308	27	6	21%	7%	131	+3.9	260/357/494	233	302	30	3	23%	12%	133	+4.4
●Josh Naylor 2020 · MLB	23	48→58	52→60	43→55	48	249/304/414	165	278	20	5	19%	7%	102	+1.8	248/304/406	158	277	18	6	17%	7%	99	+1.7	278/342/467	189	295	24	16	15%	8%	123	+3.2
●MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	39→49	65→60	40→50	46	226/295/469	243	272	35	5	32%	9%	113	+2.6	227/308/420	193	280	23	6	26%	10%	105	+2.1	220/304/400	180	274	20	5	26%	10%	95	+1.3
●Triston Casas 2023 · MLB	23	44→48	55→60	48→40	53	232/315/417	185	272	23	6	24%	10%	108	+2.3	239/332/437	198	296	25	3	27%	12%	119	+3.1	237/337/441	205	292	27	0	27%	13%	116	+1.4
●Kyle Stowers 2023 · MLB	25	46→56	53→65	45	41	231/297/410	179	328	21	6	35%	7%	98	+1.6	233/305/439	206	304	26	5	31%	8%	109	+2.4	248/324/474	226	317	28	3	30%	9%	122	+2.2
★Pete Alonso 2018 · AA	23	47→50	54→70	41→40	41	243/303/424	182	305	22	5	28%	6%	105	+2.1	248/331/500	252	295	34	2	28%	9%	136	+4.2	248/338/510	262	255	37	4	21%	10%	132	+4.3
●Ian Happ 2018 · MLB	23	45→55	56→60	48→50	44	236/301/429	193	308	24	11	31%	8%	105	+2.1	229/322/417	188	313	23	10	32%	12%	110	+2.4	249/345/427	178	308	19	11	24%	12%	118	+3.3
●Jesús Sánchez 2022 · MLB	24	49→54	59→60	45→50	43	259/315/469	210	321	28	4	29%	7%	121	+3.2	252/317/445	193	317	23	8	27%	8%	115	+2.8	249/317/431	182	314	21	10	27%	8%	108	+1.9