Jackson Ferris — OGILVIE

Jackson Ferris P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 22 LHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.6 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%20.3%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4550

CTRL4045

CMD4555

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.5	$9M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.4	$8M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+1.3	$7M	+$0.0M
Totals		$30M		$36M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	56	237	77	33	1	100%	3.1	24.0%	16.4%	7.6%	0.6%	3.38	3.47	—
2023	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	56	237	77	33	1	100%	3.1	24.0%	16.4%	7.6%	0.6%	3.38	3.47	—
2023	19	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	56	237	77	33	1	100%	3.1	32.5%	13.9%	18.6%	0.4%	3.38	2.35	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	127	530	145	57	6	100%	4.7	21.3%	12.2%	9.0%	1.3%	3.20	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	127	530	145	57	6	100%	4.7	21.3%	12.2%	9.0%	1.3%	3.20	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	127	530	145	57	6	100%	4.7	27.4%	10.8%	16.6%	1.1%	3.20	2.78	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	126	557	135	66	9	92%	4.8	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.21	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	126	557	135	66	9	92%	4.8	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.21	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	126	557	135	66	9	92%	4.8	24.2%	11.8%	12.4%	1.6%	3.86	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	23	21	101	457	106	53	9	91%	4.4	19.3%	10.4%	8.8%	2.2%	5.51	3.99	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	23	21	101	457	106	53	9	91%	4.4	19.3%	10.4%	8.8%	2.2%	5.51	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AAA RAW	LAD	23	21	101	457	106	53	9	91%	4.4	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.0%	5.51	3.69	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	LAD	2	2	8	34	7	4	1	100%	4.0	20.3%	12.5%	7.8%	2.4%	4.67	4.67	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	109	491	113	57	10	—	—	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	2.0%	5.45	4.04	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	138	584	124	63	14	100%	5.3	21.3%	10.8%	10.4%	2.4%	4.49	4.39	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	28	28	158	666	146	65	16	100%	5.6	21.9%	9.8%	12.1%	2.4%	4.32	4.21	+1.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	172	725	161	66	18	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	2.5%	4.19	4.11	+1.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	175	739	166	67	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	2.5%	4.13	4.09	+1.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	172	728	163	66	18	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	2.5%	4.13	4.13	+1.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	172	728	162	67	19	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	2.6%	4.18	4.21	+1.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	27	27	165	695	153	66	19	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	2.8%	4.28	4.34	+1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	155	653	142	64	19	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.52	+0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	144	609	130	62	19	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.2%	11.2%	3.2%	4.60	4.72	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	134	564	118	59	19	100%	6.1	20.9%	10.5%	10.3%	3.4%	4.81	4.95	-0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	122	517	105	57	19	100%	6.1	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	3.7%	5.04	5.20	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	75	317	67	34	8	100%	5.4	21.3%	10.8%	10.4%	2.5%	4.55	4.45	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	114	481	105	47	12	100%	5.7	21.9%	9.8%	12.1%	2.5%	4.38	4.27	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	24	24	142	600	133	55	15	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	2.6%	4.25	4.17	+1.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	154	650	146	59	17	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	2.6%	4.19	4.15	+1.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	157	663	149	60	17	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	2.6%	4.19	4.19	+1.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	159	671	150	62	18	100%	6.1	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	2.7%	4.24	4.27	+1.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	153	646	143	61	19	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.34	4.40	+1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	24	24	145	612	133	60	19	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	3.1%	4.49	4.59	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAD	23	23	137	578	123	59	19	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.2%	11.2%	3.3%	4.67	4.79	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	127	536	112	57	19	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.5%	10.3%	3.6%	4.89	5.03	-0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	116	490	100	54	19	100%	6.1	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	3.9%	5.13	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		250	250	1481	6251	1362	609	184	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.11	+13.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	82	25	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		94	90	410	1781	367	224	30	96%	4.4	20.6%	12.6%	8.0%	1.7%	4.00	3.87	+9.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	869	179	109	14	96%	4.4	20.6%	12.6%	8.0%	1.7%	4.00	3.87	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Ferris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	20.3%	12.5%	2.4%	—	4.23	21.8%	12.0%	468	-0.44	—	—	—
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	93
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	89
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	88
Brycen Mautz L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	22	SP	3.62	18.7%	11.6%	1.1%	.308	4.61	20.1%	9.7%	322	+0.99	3.62	426	88
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.56	1,435	88
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	87
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	87
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	87
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	85
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	85
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	85
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	85
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	85
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	84
Travis Ott L 2017 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	20.9%	12.3%	1.7%	.253	3.67	24.7%	14.4%	70	-0.15	3.67	188	83
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	83
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	82
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	82
Tyler Pike L 2016 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	19.5%	14.8%	2.7%	.278	4.33	19.3%	1.2%	175	-0.46	3.41	565	81
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.0	150	21.7%	9.9%	1.07	4.40
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01