Jackson Ferris
P
Oklahoma City Comets
Age 22
LHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.5 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106116vR 125
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
K%20.3%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%8.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 18 | 18 | 56 | 237 | 77 | 33 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | 24.0% | 16.4% | 7.6% | 0.6% | 3.38 | 3.48 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 18 | 18 | 56 | 237 | 77 | 33 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | 32.5% | 13.9% | 18.6% | 0.4% | 3.38 | 2.35 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 127 | 530 | 145 | 57 | 6 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 1.3% | 3.20 | 3.56 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 127 | 530 | 145 | 57 | 6 | 100% | 4.7 | 27.4% | 10.8% | 16.6% | 1.1% | 3.20 | 2.78 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 26 | 24 | 126 | 557 | 135 | 66 | 9 | 92% | 4.8 | 19.6% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 3.86 | 4.26 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 26 | 24 | 126 | 557 | 135 | 66 | 9 | 92% | 4.8 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 1.6% | 3.86 | 3.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 14 | 14 | 53 | 248 | 49 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 17.4% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 6.96 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.3% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 118 | 522 | 105 | 67 | 13 | — | — | 20.0% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 5.70 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 6 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 20.3% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.63 | 4.25 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 92 | 386 | 82 | 41 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 4.39 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 87 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.9% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.22 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 89 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 4.19 | 4.11 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 90 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 94 | 395 | 89 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.13 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 91 | 383 | 85 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 87 | 366 | 81 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 82 | 344 | 75 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.52 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 63 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.9% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 2.4% | 4.28 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 73 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 4.15 | 4.07 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 80 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 4.05 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 80 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 79 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.17 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 75 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 70 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.47 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 105 | 612 | 2585 | 571 | 244 | 66 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 3.83 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 80 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 85 | 83 | 362 | 1572 | 322 | 211 | 27 | 98% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 4.01 | 4.00 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 46 | 200 | 869 | 178 | 117 | 15 | 98% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 4.01 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Ferris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 20.3% | 12.3% | 2.4% | — | 4.24 | 21.8% | 12.0% | 280 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.30 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.04 | 2.54 | 743 | 93 |
| Mason Molina L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.28 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.56 | 23.3% | 13.3% | 69 | -0.72 | 3.56 | 165 | 91 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 4.01 | 258 | 90 |
| Joe Whitman L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .303 | 3.53 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 199 | -0.37 | 3.35 | 302 | 89 |
| Greg Farone L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 89 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.22 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.37 | 4.00 | 170 | 89 |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 1.1% | .308 | 4.55 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 305 | +0.94 | 3.61 | 409 | 87 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 87 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 87 |
| Dylan Carmouche L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.37 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .332 | 4.42 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 70 | +0.05 | 4.37 | 192 | 86 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.91 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .301 | 3.79 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 378 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 1,397 | 86 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 85 |
| Damon Jones L 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.16 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .321 | 3.96 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.20 | 3.85 | 269 | 85 |
| Justin Sinibaldi L 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.79 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .286 | 6.01 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.22 | 4.79 | 163 | 85 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.00 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.6% | .275 | 3.80 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 141 | -0.20 | 3.73 | 245 | 85 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 85 |
| Pete Hansen L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.17 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.84 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 325 | -0.33 | 3.66 | 437 | 85 |
| Austin Krob L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.73 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .329 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 171 | +0.37 | 3.73 | 280 | 85 |
| Matt Wilkinson L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.82 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .312 | 3.36 | 24.3% | 14.4% | 62 | -1.46 | 3.17 | 284 | 84 |
| Tyler Schweitzer L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.66 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 3.2% | .293 | 4.22 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 274 | -0.44 | 3.87 | 381 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 91 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 1.00 | 4.31 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Garrett Richards ('22) | 7 | 82 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 0.98 | 3.95 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |