Jackson Ferris
P
Oklahoma City Comets
+1.1
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 2.5 · 2030
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%9.2%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.5peak
2030
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 18 | 18 | 56 | 237 | 77 | 33 | 1 | 24.0% | 16.4% | 0.6% | 3.38 | 3.47 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 20 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 27 | 127 | 530 | 145 | 57 | 6 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 3.20 | 3.59 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 26 | 24 | 126 | 557 | 135 | 66 | 9 | 19.6% | 13.0% | 2.0% | 3.86 | 4.21 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 2 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 8.53 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 107 | 60 | 12 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 126 | 536 | 111 | 65 | 14 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.30 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 144 | 610 | 133 | 65 | 15 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 30 | 30 | 164 | 693 | 155 | 68 | 17 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 4.26 | 4.17 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 32 | 32 | 178 | 752 | 171 | 70 | 19 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.16 | 4.09 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 32 | 32 | 178 | 752 | 173 | 70 | 19 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.07 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 32 | 32 | 177 | 747 | 172 | 70 | 19 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 32 | 32 | 174 | 736 | 169 | 69 | 19 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.10 | 4.11 | +2.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 31 | 31 | 170 | 719 | 164 | 68 | 18 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.16 | +2.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 30 | 30 | 165 | 698 | 158 | 67 | 18 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +2.0 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 29 | 29 | 159 | 673 | 151 | 65 | 18 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +1.8 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 153 | 646 | 143 | 63 | 18 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +1.6 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 146 | 617 | 134 | 62 | 18 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.48 | +1.4 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 126 | 60 | 17 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 131 | 552 | 116 | 58 | 17 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 71 | 315 | 1353 | 283 | 181 | 22 | 20.9% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 3.60 | 3.92 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 45 | 200 | 859 | 180 | 115 | 14 | 20.9% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 3.60 | 3.92 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Ferris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | — | 4.18 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 487 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Carmouche L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .332 | 4.38 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 70 | +0.01 | 4.37 | 192 | 92 |
| Greg Farone L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 92 |
| Travis Ott L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.80 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .253 | 3.67 | 24.7% | 14.4% | 70 | -0.13 | 3.67 | 188 | 92 |
| Pete Hansen L 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 91 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 91 |
| Joe Whitman L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.91 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .303 | 3.79 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 131 | -0.12 | 3.78 | 234 | 90 |
| Brandon Finnegan L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.50 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .287 | 5.02 | 18.5% | 6.5% | 273 | +0.52 | 3.85 | 489 | 90 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 90 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 90 |
| Austin Krob L 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.5% | .329 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 171 | +0.50 | 3.56 | 280 | 89 |
| Damon Jones L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 3.83 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.29 | 3.69 | 269 | 89 |
| Ixan Henderson L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 1.4% | .280 | 3.27 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 132 | -0.49 | 3.27 | 236 | 88 |
| Parker Messick L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.93 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .296 | 3.27 | 24.6% | 15.8% | 298 | -0.66 | 2.37 | 419 | 88 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.7% | .275 | 3.73 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 116 | -0.33 | 2.85 | 221 | 88 |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.62 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 1.1% | .308 | 4.57 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 249 | +0.95 | 3.62 | 353 | 87 |
| A.J. Block L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 87 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.85 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.73 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 378 | -1.12 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 87 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 87 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 87 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.1 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.4 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.5 | $23M | +$22M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +2.4 | $22M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.3 | $22M | +$14M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +2.2 | $22M | +$10M |
| Totals | $28M | $127M | +$100M | ||