Jackson Ferris

P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.6 · 2029

Overview

AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP45OGV rank#97ETA2028MLB%14%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	27	27	127	3.20	2.78	27.4%	10.8%	—	K 21.3% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.59
2025	21	AALAD	26	24	126	3.86	3.46	24.2%	11.8%	—	K 19.6% · BB 13.0% · FIP 4.21
2026	22	AAALAD	24	22	109	5.12	3.48	24.7%	11.2%	—	K 21.2% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.71
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	2	2	11	4.45	4.45	20.8%	11.0%	0.1
2028PROJ50% MLB	24	MLBLAD	10	10	54	4.38	4.32	21.4%	9.8%	0.7
2029PROJ70% MLB	25	MLBLAD	13	13	75	4.27	4.21	21.9%	9.1%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$5M2032Arb-3$7M

Career WAR0.6 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 19, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 64%

CompsJoe Whitman (age 22) · Pete Hansen (age 23) · Sam Weatherly (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 118

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%20.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$8M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+1.3	$7M	+$3M
Totals		$18M		$34M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	56	237	77	33	1	100%	3.1	24.0%	16.4%	7.6%	0.6%	3.38	3.47	—
2023	19	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	56	237	77	33	1	100%	3.1	32.5%	13.9%	18.6%	0.4%	3.38	2.35	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	127	530	145	57	6	100%	4.7	21.3%	12.2%	9.0%	1.3%	3.20	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	127	530	145	57	6	100%	4.7	21.3%	12.2%	9.0%	1.3%	3.20	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	127	530	145	57	6	100%	4.7	27.4%	10.8%	16.6%	1.1%	3.20	2.78	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	126	557	135	66	9	92%	4.8	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.21	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	126	557	135	66	9	92%	4.8	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.21	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	126	557	135	66	9	92%	4.8	24.2%	11.8%	12.4%	1.6%	3.86	3.46	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	24	22	109	482	119	54	9	92%	4.5	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	2.1%	5.12	3.71	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	24	22	109	482	119	54	9	92%	4.5	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	2.1%	5.12	3.71	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	24	22	109	482	119	54	9	92%	4.5	24.7%	11.2%	13.5%	1.9%	5.12	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	2	2	11	46	10	5	1	100%	5.5	20.8%	11.0%	9.8%	2.4%	4.45	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	107	450	96	44	11	100%	5.6	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.4%	4.32	4.26	+1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	107	452	99	41	11	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.1%	12.7%	2.5%	4.21	4.15	+1.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	109	461	102	42	12	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	2.5%	4.16	4.13	+1.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	109	459	101	42	12	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.0%	13.0%	2.6%	4.17	4.17	+1.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	106	449	99	41	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	2.7%	4.22	4.25	+1.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	99	418	91	39	12	100%	6.2	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.39	+1.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	90	380	81	37	11	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.7%	11.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.56	+0.9
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	80	339	71	34	11	100%	6.2	20.9%	10.1%	10.9%	3.2%	4.65	4.77	+0.6
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	71	301	62	32	10	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.99	+0.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	63	264	53	29	10	100%	6.3	20.0%	10.9%	9.1%	3.8%	5.09	5.24	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	54	228	49	22	6	100%	5.4	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.6%	4.38	4.32	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	75	317	69	29	8	100%	5.8	21.9%	9.1%	12.7%	2.6%	4.27	4.21	+1.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	89	376	83	34	10	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	2.6%	4.22	4.19	+1.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	94	397	88	36	11	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.0%	13.0%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+1.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	96	405	89	37	11	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	2.8%	4.28	4.31	+1.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	91	384	83	36	11	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.9%	4.39	4.46	+1.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	83	350	75	34	11	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.7%	11.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.63	+0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	75	317	66	32	11	100%	6.2	20.9%	10.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.73	4.85	+0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	68	287	59	30	10	100%	6.2	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.6%	4.94	5.07	+0.3
2037	33	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	59	249	50	27	10	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.9%	9.1%	3.9%	5.18	5.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	132	784	3311	711	318	99	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.14	+11.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	81	25	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.14	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		95	91	418	1806	381	225	30	96%	4.4	21.1%	12.5%	8.7%	1.6%	3.92	3.80	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	865	183	108	14	96%	4.4	21.1%	12.5%	8.7%	1.6%	3.92	3.80	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 109 IPFIP 3.46 → 3.71 (+0.25)K% 24.7% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.69%	—	×0.860	21.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.20%	—	×0.900	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AATulsa Drillers · 126 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.21 (+0.76)K% 24.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.810	19.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.85%	—	×1.100	13.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷0.957	×1.200	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 98 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.39 (+0.88)K% 29.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.770	22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.54%	—	×1.150	12.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.036	×1.250	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 28 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.26 (+0.60)K% 21.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.31%	—	×0.810	17.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.48%	—	×1.100	12.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.063	×1.200	1.85%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 56 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.47 (+1.11)K% 32.5% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.49%	—	×0.740	24.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.92%	—	×1.180	16.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.42%	÷0.957	×1.300	0.57%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Ferris (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	4.18	21.8%	12.5%	323	-0.27	—	—	—
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	89
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	87
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	87
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	86
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	3.99	17.6%	7.2%	171	+0.40	3.59	280	86
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	85
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	84
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	84
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	84
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	84
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	84
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	84
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	84
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	83
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	83
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	83
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	83
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	83
Zack Erwin L 2017 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	17.6%	9.0%	1.3%	.271	3.97	16.2%	9.9%	194	+0.53	2.65	529	82
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	93	21.4%	9.7%	1.08	4.40
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Darren Dreifort ('04)	4.4	97	21.2%	10.3%	0.93	4.36
Mike Bielecki ('84-'97, 9 WAR*)	6.2	95	18.4%*	9.1%*	1.15*	4.47*
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)	7.6	109	19.1%	10.3%	1.05	4.58
Matt Young ('83-'93, 8 WAR*)	5.9	119	22.8%*	10.5%*	0.91*	4.53*