Emmett Olson
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%20.4%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 2.50 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 2.50 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 103 | 436 | 95 | 35 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 3.16 | 3.95 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 103 | 436 | 95 | 35 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 1.4% | 3.16 | 3.03 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 9 | 8 | 35 | 151 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 89% | 3.9 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.58 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 9 | 8 | 35 | 151 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 89% | 3.9 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 13.9% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 3.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 146 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 146 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 3 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 83 | 35 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 76 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 29 | 139 | 594 | 99 | 54 | 14 | 94% | 4.5 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 3.43 | 4.09 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 42 | 200 | 855 | 143 | 78 | 20 | 94% | 4.5 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 3.43 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Emmett Olson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.40 | 21.4% | 12.5% | 103 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 81 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 80 |
| Dalton Pence L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 79 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 78 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 77 |
| Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.48 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .276 | 2.79 | 21.0% | 16.1% | 87 | -0.69 | 2.79 | 219 | 77 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 76 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 76 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 14.8% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 141 | 76 |
| Matt Portland L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 143 | 76 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 75 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 75 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 75 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 75 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.38 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 0.9% | .280 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 364 | +2.03 | 3.38 | 431 | 74 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 74 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .362 | 3.22 | 19.1% | 11.9% | 285 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 524 | 73 |
| Mason Molina L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.56 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 165 | 73 |
| Parker Mushinski L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.61 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .303 | 3.72 | 23.3% | 13.3% | 106 | +0.11 | 3.21 | 439 | 72 |
| Grant Watson L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 180 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 34 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 1.14 | 4.44 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |