Emmett Olson

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	21	103	3.16	3.03	21.8%	8.0%	—	K 16.6% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.88
2025	23	A+MIA	9	8	35	4.15	3.71	21.2%	7.3%	—	K 16.3% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.59
2026	24	MIX3 levels	7	7	18	9.50	7.27	18.3%	20.4%	—	K 10.0% · BB 19.2% · FIP 8.50
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.15	5.15	17.2%	11.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBMIA	2	2	12	5.02	4.99	18.6%	10.9%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJohn Gast (age 24) · John Koronka (age 25) · Erik Rivera (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%17.2%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	1	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	5.40	2.50	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	1	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	5.40	2.50	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	103	436	95	35	6	100%	4.9	16.6%	9.3%	7.4%	1.8%	3.16	3.88	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	103	436	95	35	6	100%	4.9	16.6%	9.3%	7.4%	1.8%	3.16	3.88	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	103	436	95	35	6	100%	4.9	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	1.4%	3.16	3.03	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	9	8	35	151	32	11	4	89%	3.9	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.3%	4.15	4.59	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	9	8	35	151	32	11	4	89%	3.9	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.3%	4.15	4.59	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	9	8	35	151	32	11	4	89%	3.9	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	2.6%	4.15	3.71	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	7	18	93	17	19	4	100%	2.6	10.0%	19.2%	-9.2%	6.9%	9.50	8.50	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	7	18	93	17	19	4	100%	2.6	10.0%	19.2%	-9.2%	6.9%	9.50	8.50	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	7	18	93	17	19	4	100%	2.6	18.3%	20.4%	-2.2%	4.3%	9.50	7.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	11.1%	6.1%	3.1%	5.15	5.15	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	5	5	28	118	22	13	4	100%	5.6	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	5.02	4.99	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	2	2	12	51	9	6	2	100%	6.0	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	5.02	4.99	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	12	51	9	6	2	100%	6.0	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	5.02	4.61	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	100	33	100%	6.0	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	5.02	4.61	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		38	36	157	687	109	72	19	95%	4.1	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	2.8%	4.13	4.65	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	46	200	875	138	92	25	95%	4.1	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	2.8%	4.13	4.65	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 10 IPFIP 7.17 → 8.50 (+1.33)K% 13.0% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.96%	—	×0.770	9.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.150	19.17%
HR / BF /BF	5.56%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.17 → 8.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 5 IPFIP 4.64 → 6.39 (+1.76)K% 31.8% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.740	23.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.180	16.09%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.91%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 6.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 35 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.59 (+0.90)K% 21.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.19%	—	×0.770	16.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.28%	—	×1.150	8.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.006	×1.250	3.29%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 87 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.16 (+0.84)K% 20.2% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.16%	—	×0.770	15.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.22%	—	×1.150	9.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷0.935	×1.250	2.13%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 16 IPFIP 1.24 → 2.10 (+0.86)K% 32.2% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.740	23.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.180	8.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.888	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.24 → 2.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmett Olson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	17.2%	11.1%	3.1%	—	4.99	18.6%	7.7%	28	-0.16	—	—	—
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	88
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	81
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	77
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	77
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	77
Pedro Hernandez L 2013 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	11.0%	8.4%	3.8%	.347	4.09	13.1%	4.2%	68	-1.22	4.09	124	74
J.C. Romero L 2001 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP-	4.89	13.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.285	3.46	20.7%	10.3%	218	-1.43	2.88	652	73
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	72
Chris Rusin L 2012 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	15.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.343	4.42	13.3%	6.8%	245	-0.09	2.89	596	72
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	72
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	72
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	72
Nate Robertson L 2003 · 4.66 FIP	25	SP	4.66	16.3%	10.3%	3.0%	.343	4.54	16.1%	8.6%	602	-0.12	4.13	1,144	70
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	70
Justin Steele L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP	4.07	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	.400	3.71	24.2%	14.1%	203	-0.36	2.74	785	70
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	70
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	70
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	70
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2016 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP	4.78	11.0%	8.5%	2.8%	.336	4.87	11.7%	1.5%	176	+0.09	4.58	321	70
Zach Penrod L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	17.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.263	4.41	21.7%	7.3%	141	+0.14	3.37	174	69