Emmett Olson
P
Beloit Sky Carp
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.4%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 21 | 21 | 103 | 436 | 95 | 35 | 6 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 1.8% | 3.16 | 3.86 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 9 | 8 | 35 | 151 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 21.3% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 29 | 139 | 594 | 99 | 54 | 13 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 3.43 | 4.03 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 42 | 200 | 855 | 142 | 78 | 19 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 3.43 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Emmett Olson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.37 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 148 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 85 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 84 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 84 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 84 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.98 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.09 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.11 | 3.98 | 104 | 84 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.27 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .317 | 3.29 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.98 | 2.97 | 245 | 84 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 84 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.03 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .263 | 4.14 | 16.3% | 0.5% | 152 | +0.11 | 3.82 | 244 | 84 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.05 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.67 | 4.31 | 201 | 84 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 83 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .310 | 3.67 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 44 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 111 | 83 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 83 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 83 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 2.8% | .294 | 3.59 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 63 | -1.06 | 2.63 | 160 | 83 |
| Billy Strode L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.85 | 16.0% | 7.3% | 47 | -0.83 | 2.51 | 155 | 83 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.42 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 4.9% | .307 | 4.91 | 17.3% | 4.7% | 158 | -0.51 | 3.41 | 195 | 83 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 83 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.1M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||