Emmett Olson — OGILVIE

Emmett Olson P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%17.6%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	1	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	5.40	2.50	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	1	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	5.40	2.50	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	1	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	5.40	2.50	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	103	436	95	35	6	100%	4.9	16.6%	9.3%	7.4%	1.8%	3.16	3.88	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	103	436	95	35	6	100%	4.9	16.6%	9.3%	7.4%	1.8%	3.16	3.88	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	103	436	95	35	6	100%	4.9	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	1.4%	3.16	3.03	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	9	8	35	151	32	11	4	89%	3.9	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.3%	4.15	4.59	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	9	8	35	151	32	11	4	89%	3.9	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.3%	4.15	4.59	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	9	8	35	151	32	11	4	89%	3.9	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	2.6%	4.15	3.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	7	7	18	93	17	19	4	100%	2.6	10.0%	19.2%	-9.2%	6.9%	9.50	8.50	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	7	7	18	93	17	19	4	100%	2.6	10.0%	19.2%	-9.2%	6.9%	9.50	8.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	MIA	2	2	5	22	7	3	1	100%	2.5	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	3.60	4.64	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	MIA	4	4	10	54	7	9	3	100%	2.4	13.0%	16.7%	-3.7%	5.6%	13.03	7.17	—
2026	24	AA RAW	MIA	1	1	3	17	3	7	0	100%	3.3	17.6%	41.2%	-23.5%	0.0%	8.10	6.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	94	395	75	34	11	100%	5.8	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.59	4.55	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	94	395	78	34	11	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.51	4.48	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	92	389	77	33	11	100%	6.1	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.50	4.50	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	89	377	75	33	11	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.55	4.58	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	85	361	70	32	12	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	3.2%	4.65	4.71	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	80	339	65	31	12	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	75	316	66	28	11	100%	6.2	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.6%	4.81	4.82	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	40	169	32	15	5	100%	5.7	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	2.7%	4.51	4.47	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	62	262	52	22	7	100%	6.2	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	2.7%	4.43	4.40	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	71	300	59	26	8	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	2.8%	4.42	4.42	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	75	317	63	27	9	100%	6.2	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	2.9%	4.47	4.50	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	75	317	62	28	10	100%	6.2	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.62	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	72	304	58	28	10	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.80	+0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	69	291	61	25	10	100%	5.8	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.4%	4.71	4.72	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	464	1961	387	172	59	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.8%	11.0%	3.0%	4.55	4.19	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	74	25	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.8%	11.0%	3.0%	4.55	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		38	36	157	687	109	72	19	95%	4.1	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	2.8%	4.13	4.65	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	46	200	875	138	92	25	95%	4.1	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	2.8%	4.13	4.65	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmett Olson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	17.6%	8.9%	2.9%	—	4.51	19.5%	11.0%	279	-0.19	—	—	—
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	85
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	81
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	78
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	76
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	76
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	75
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	74
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	74
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	73
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	73
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	73
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	72
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	72
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	72
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	72
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	72
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	72
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	72
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	72
Josh Hendrickson L 2022 · 5.04 FIP	24	SP	5.04	17.8%	10.9%	3.8%	.339	6.26	14.6%	4.3%	108	+1.22	3.80	365	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	80	19.6%	8.7%	1.20	4.62
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43