Liomar Martinez
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 165 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.3 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 113
ERA5.00
FIP5.00
K%20.4%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 9 | 2 | 24 | 108 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 22% | 2.7 | 8.8% | 9.3% | -0.4% | 1.7% | 4.12 | 4.48 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 9 | 2 | 24 | 108 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 22% | 2.7 | 13.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 4.12 | 4.02 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 9 | 7 | 28 | 146 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 78% | 3.1 | 10.2% | 12.0% | -1.7% | 5.8% | 9.53 | 6.94 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 9 | 7 | 28 | 146 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 78% | 3.1 | 15.1% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 9.53 | 5.78 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 52 | 235 | 52 | 39 | 7 | 88% | 3.0 | 15.4% | 20.2% | -4.8% | 5.1% | 4.88 | 7.17 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 52 | 235 | 52 | 39 | 7 | 88% | 3.0 | 22.1% | 16.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 5.11 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 22 | 20 | 101 | 424 | 119 | 41 | 9 | 91% | 4.6 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 3.30 | 4.21 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 22 | 20 | 101 | 424 | 119 | 41 | 9 | 91% | 4.6 | 28.1% | 9.7% | 18.4% | 2.1% | 3.30 | 3.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 15 | 14 | 65 | 295 | 95 | 46 | 9 | 93% | 4.3 | 24.8% | 17.9% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 6.26 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 5.00 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.4% | 12.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.95 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 129 | 569 | 151 | 80 | 17 | — | — | 26.5% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 5.63 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.4% | 12.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 127 | 537 | 117 | 59 | 16 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 132 | 557 | 126 | 56 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 135 | 571 | 133 | 54 | 16 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.30 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 136 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.22 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 137 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 135 | 569 | 135 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 131 | 552 | 131 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 125 | 527 | 123 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 117 | 496 | 114 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 110 | 462 | 105 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 63 | 266 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.61 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 96 | 405 | 92 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.39 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 110 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.26 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 121 | 511 | 120 | 46 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 125 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 125 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 122 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 118 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 109 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 99 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.78 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 189 | 189 | 1099 | 4641 | 1079 | 444 | 138 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 3.98 | +18.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 81 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 58 | 270 | 1208 | 222 | 176 | 45 | 81% | 3.7 | 18.4% | 14.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.42 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 43 | 200 | 896 | 165 | 131 | 33 | 81% | 3.7 | 18.4% | 14.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.42 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Liomar Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.00 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.46 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 394 | -0.54 | — | — | — |
| Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.73 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.46 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.73 | 4.73 | 226 | 91 |
| Will Watson R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .275 | 5.43 | 15.2% | 2.1% | 20 | +1.24 | 4.19 | 141 | 90 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.9% | .309 | 3.76 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.91 | 2.15 | 702 | 88 |
| Jurrangelo Cijntje S 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.16 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 4.0% | .242 | 5.35 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 80 | +0.19 | 5.16 | 189 | 88 |
| Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.15 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .297 | 4.41 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 211 | +0.26 | 4.15 | 321 | 88 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.80 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 778 | 86 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 86 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .335 | 3.97 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 254 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 357 | 85 |
| Will Sanders R 2027 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.17 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .297 | 4.04 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 167 | -1.13 | 3.89 | 259 | 85 |
| Miguel Almonte R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.94 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .300 | 4.40 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 143 | +0.46 | 3.02 | 247 | 85 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.63 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.9% | 5.2% | 391 | +0.34 | 4.09 | 498 | 85 |
| Bryce Conley R 2028 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 84 |
| Chris McElvain R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.79 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | .275 | 5.18 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 191 | +0.39 | 4.01 | 287 | 84 |
| Lucas Elissalt R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 1.9% | .253 | 4.98 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 60 | +1.13 | 3.85 | 149 | 83 |
| Ty Cummings R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.14 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .329 | 5.29 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 150 | +1.15 | 4.14 | 267 | 83 |
| Derek True R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.67 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 73 | -0.09 | 4.50 | 170 | 83 |
| Adam Hill R 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 6.36 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 91 | +1.40 | 4.96 | 213 | 83 |
| Jamison Hill R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.09 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .280 | 4.70 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | -0.39 | 4.44 | 326 | 82 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 82 |
| Josh Grosz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.85 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 4.61 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 156 | -0.24 | 4.00 | 274 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 128 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 1.18 | 4.48 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |