Liomar Martinez

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#167ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	17	15	52	4.88	5.11	22.1%	16.6%	—	K 15.4% · BB 20.2% · FIP 6.84
2025	20	AMIA	22	20	101	3.30	3.12	28.1%	9.7%	—	K 20.8% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.25
2026	21	A+MIA	23	21	102	5.19	3.57	33.0%	12.9%	—	K 25.4% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.84
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIA	—	—	0	4.98	4.98	24.5%	14.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIA	10	10	53	4.68	4.59	25.0%	12.6%	0.4
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIA	15	15	83	4.50	4.39	25.3%	11.5%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 17, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 74%

CompsTrace Bright (age 22) · Brandon Young (age 22) · Cade Smith (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%24.5%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$59M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M
Totals		$9M		$29M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	9	2	24	108	14	8	2	22%	2.7	8.8%	9.3%	-0.4%	2.1%	4.12	4.67	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	9	2	24	108	14	8	2	22%	2.7	13.0%	7.4%	5.6%	1.9%	4.12	4.02	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	7	28	146	22	14	6	78%	3.1	10.2%	12.0%	-1.7%	5.8%	9.53	6.93	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	9	7	28	146	22	14	6	78%	3.1	15.1%	9.6%	5.5%	4.1%	9.53	5.78	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	52	235	52	39	7	88%	3.0	15.4%	20.2%	-4.8%	4.5%	4.88	6.84	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	52	235	52	39	7	88%	3.0	15.4%	20.2%	-4.8%	4.5%	4.88	6.84	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	52	235	52	39	7	88%	3.0	22.1%	16.6%	5.5%	3.0%	4.88	5.11	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	101	424	119	41	9	91%	4.6	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.7%	3.30	4.25	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	101	424	119	41	9	91%	4.6	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.7%	3.30	4.25	—
2025	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	101	424	119	41	9	91%	4.6	28.1%	9.7%	18.4%	2.1%	3.30	3.12	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	23	21	102	443	146	57	13	91%	4.4	25.4%	14.8%	10.6%	3.7%	5.19	4.84	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	23	21	102	443	146	57	13	91%	4.4	25.4%	14.8%	10.6%	3.7%	5.19	4.84	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	23	21	102	443	146	57	13	91%	4.4	33.0%	12.9%	20.1%	2.9%	5.19	3.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.5%	14.4%	10.0%	3.2%	4.98	4.98	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	106	450	112	57	14	100%	5.3	25.0%	12.6%	12.4%	3.1%	4.76	4.67	+0.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	119	502	127	58	15	100%	5.7	25.3%	11.5%	13.9%	3.1%	4.58	4.47	+1.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	125	529	135	57	16	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.0%	4.44	4.36	+1.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	125	527	135	56	16	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.7%	15.0%	3.0%	4.37	4.33	+1.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	122	514	132	55	16	100%	6.1	25.7%	10.7%	14.9%	3.1%	4.37	4.37	+1.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	116	491	125	53	16	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.9%	14.7%	3.2%	4.42	4.45	+1.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	108	458	116	51	15	100%	6.0	25.3%	11.1%	14.2%	3.3%	4.52	4.58	+1.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	98	416	104	47	15	100%	6.2	25.0%	11.4%	13.6%	3.5%	4.66	4.76	+0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	88	372	91	44	14	100%	5.9	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.8%	4.84	4.96	+0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	78	329	79	40	13	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.2%	12.0%	4.0%	5.05	5.19	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	53	224	56	28	7	100%	5.3	25.0%	12.6%	12.4%	2.9%	4.68	4.59	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	83	350	89	40	10	100%	5.5	25.3%	11.5%	13.9%	2.9%	4.50	4.39	+0.9
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	102	431	110	46	12	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	2.9%	4.36	4.28	+1.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	109	460	118	49	13	100%	6.1	25.7%	10.7%	15.0%	2.9%	4.29	4.25	+1.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	110	464	119	50	14	100%	6.1	25.7%	10.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+1.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	107	452	115	49	14	100%	5.9	25.6%	10.9%	14.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.36	+1.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	101	426	108	47	14	100%	5.9	25.3%	11.1%	14.2%	3.2%	4.43	4.49	+1.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	92	388	97	44	13	100%	6.1	25.0%	11.4%	13.6%	3.4%	4.56	4.66	+0.7
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	84	355	87	42	13	100%	6.0	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.6%	4.74	4.86	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	74	312	75	38	12	100%	6.2	24.1%	12.2%	12.0%	3.8%	4.94	5.08	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	155	915	3861	974	434	121	100%	5.9	25.2%	11.2%	14.0%	3.1%	4.48	4.11	+14.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	213	95	26	100%	5.9	25.2%	11.2%	14.0%	3.1%	4.48	4.11	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		80	65	307	1356	261	189	49	81%	3.8	19.3%	13.9%	5.3%	3.6%	4.83	5.22	+10.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	42	200	882	170	123	32	81%	3.8	19.3%	13.9%	5.3%	3.6%	4.83	5.22	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 102 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.84 (+1.29)K% 33.0% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.96%	—	×0.770	25.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.87%	—	×1.150	14.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.93%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 101 IPFIP 3.12 → 4.25 (+1.13)K% 28.1% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.07%	—	×0.740	20.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.67%	—	×1.180	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷1.035	×1.300	2.67%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 35 IPFIP 4.13 → 6.10 (+1.97)K% 25.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.85%	—	×0.680	17.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.61%	—	×1.250	17.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷0.898	×1.400	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 6.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 17 IPFIP 6.36 → 8.07 (+1.71)K% 15.9% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.91%	—	×0.740	11.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.59%	—	×1.180	25.48%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷0.888	×1.300	4.99%

Result: FIP 6.36 → 8.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Marlins · 28 IPFIP 5.30 → 6.93 (+1.63)K% 15.1% → 10.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.07%	—	×0.680	10.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.250	11.99%
HR / BF /BF	4.11%	÷0.995	×1.400	5.78%

Result: FIP 5.30 → 6.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Miami · 24 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.67 (+0.71)K% 13.0% → 8.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.96%	—	×0.680	8.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.250	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.249	×1.400	2.08%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liomar Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.49	25.3%	13.7%	351	-0.49	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.85	19.4%	6.3%	322	+0.59	4.26	422	93
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	87
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	87
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	86
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	85
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	84
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	82
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	82
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	82
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.37	20.4%	10.5%	363	-0.47	3.89	479	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	81
Rick Van Den Hurk R 2007 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.6%	11.3%	4.0%	.331	4.31	21.2%	12.5%	90	-0.57	3.27	172	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	80
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.39	24.2%	13.0%	346	-0.66	3.90	519	80
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	107	25.2%	11.5%	1.26	4.60
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92