Liomar Martinez — OGILVIE

Liomar Martinez P Beloit Sky Carp

+0.7 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.6 · 2030

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.8%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.0%

IP101

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.6peak

2030

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Miami	9	2	24	108	14	8	2	8.8%	9.3%	1.8%	4.12	4.52	+0.1
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	9	7	28	146	22	14	6	10.2%	12.0%	5.8%	9.53	6.94	-0.6
2024	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	17	15	52	235	52	39	7	15.4%	20.2%	4.8%	4.88	6.98	-1.2
2025	20	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	101	424	119	41	9	20.8%	11.4%	2.7%	3.30	4.25	+1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	2	2	7	32	14	6	1	—	—	—	7.71	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	MIA	18	18	101	426	93	46	13	21.8%	10.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	+0.7
2026 Total	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	108	458	107	52	14	23.4%	11.4%	3.0%	4.87	4.37	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	MIA	23	23	128	541	123	53	16	22.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.50	4.42	+1.3
2028	23	MLB	MIA	28	28	153	646	151	59	19	23.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.35	4.26	+1.8
2029	24	MLB	MIA	31	31	173	729	174	64	21	23.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.23	4.15	+2.3
2030	25	MLB	MIA	34	34	187	789	191	67	23	24.2%	8.5%	2.9%	4.15	4.09	+2.6
2031	26	MLB	MIA	34	34	187	789	193	67	23	24.4%	8.5%	2.9%	4.10	4.07	+2.6
2032	27	MLB	MIA	34	34	186	783	191	67	23	24.4%	8.5%	2.9%	4.09	4.08	+2.6
2033	28	MLB	MIA	33	33	183	771	188	66	23	24.4%	8.6%	2.9%	4.10	4.11	+2.5
2034	29	MLB	MIA	32	32	179	754	183	65	22	24.3%	8.6%	3.0%	4.13	4.15	+2.3
2035	30	MLB	MIA	31	31	173	731	176	64	22	24.1%	8.7%	3.0%	4.18	4.22	+2.1
2036	31	MLB	MIA	30	30	167	706	168	63	22	23.8%	8.9%	3.1%	4.25	4.29	+1.9
2037	32	MLB	MIA	29	29	160	677	160	61	22	23.6%	9.0%	3.2%	4.33	4.38	+1.7
2038	33	MLB	MIA	28	28	153	647	150	59	21	23.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.42	4.47	+1.4
2039	34	MLB	MIA	26	26	146	614	141	58	21	22.9%	9.4%	3.4%	4.52	4.58	+1.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			59	46	212	945	163	129	34	17.2%	13.7%	3.6%	4.75	5.35	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—			56	43	200	892	154	122	32	17.2%	13.7%	3.6%	4.75	5.35	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liomar Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	21.8%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.26	23.4%	14.3%	454	-0.41	—	—	—
Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	93
Jackson Nezuh R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	18.6%	9.7%	72	+0.50	3.90	193	91
Mason Hickman R 2027 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP-	4.73	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.45	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.72	4.73	300	91
Jack Wenninger R 2027 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP-	4.25	20.9%	9.3%	3.2%	.309	3.90	21.4%	13.1%	136	-0.35	3.90	251	90
David Perez R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.20	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.21	3.99	151	90
Griffin Canning R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	22	SP-	3.70	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.13	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.43	3.65	705	90
Logan Hofmann R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	21	SP-	4.51	22.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.239	6.75	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.24	4.51	129	90
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	90
CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	89
Nick Sinacola R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	89
Jaden Hamm R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	21	SP-	3.82	23.5%	8.9%	2.9%	.273	4.78	17.1%	7.3%	83	+0.96	3.82	182	89
Will Sanders R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	89
Josh Grosz R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	88
Daniel Eagen R 2027 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP-	4.14	25.1%	12.6%	2.9%	.263	7.80	20.3%	9.7%	12	+3.66	4.14	129	88
Austin Cates R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	88
Brandon Young R 2027 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP-	4.11	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.57	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.54	3.13	319	88
Ty Cummings R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	19.0%	10.5%	2.7%	.329	5.00	14.2%	5.9%	116	+0.70	4.30	233	88
Ian Bedell R 2028 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	88
Brandon Bailey R 2027 · 3.52 FIP	22	SP-	3.52	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.92	3.52	306	88
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.6	$23M	+$23M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.6	$24M	+$23M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.6	$25M	+$24M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.5	$25M	+$20M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.3	$23M	+$15M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+2.1	$22M	+$11M
Totals		$27M		$142M	+$116M