Liomar Martinez — OGILVIE

Liomar Martinez P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%20.4%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4555

CTRL4045

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$14M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	9	2	24	108	14	8	2	22%	2.7	8.8%	9.3%	-0.4%	2.1%	4.12	4.67	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	9	2	24	108	14	8	2	22%	2.7	13.0%	7.4%	5.6%	1.9%	4.12	4.02	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	7	28	146	22	14	6	78%	3.1	10.2%	12.0%	-1.7%	5.8%	9.53	6.93	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	7	28	146	22	14	6	78%	3.1	10.2%	12.0%	-1.7%	5.8%	9.53	6.93	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	9	7	28	146	22	14	6	78%	3.1	15.1%	9.6%	5.5%	4.1%	9.53	5.78	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	52	235	52	39	7	88%	3.0	15.4%	20.2%	-4.8%	4.5%	4.88	6.84	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	52	235	52	39	7	88%	3.0	15.4%	20.2%	-4.8%	4.5%	4.88	6.84	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	52	235	52	39	7	88%	3.0	22.1%	16.6%	5.5%	3.0%	4.88	5.11	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	101	424	119	41	9	91%	4.6	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.7%	3.30	4.25	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	101	424	119	41	9	91%	4.6	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.7%	3.30	4.25	—
2025	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	101	424	119	41	9	91%	4.6	28.1%	9.7%	18.4%	2.1%	3.30	3.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	23	21	102	443	146	57	13	91%	4.4	25.4%	14.8%	10.6%	3.7%	5.19	4.84	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	23	21	102	443	146	57	13	91%	4.4	25.4%	14.8%	10.6%	3.7%	5.19	4.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	MIA	23	21	102	443	146	57	13	91%	4.4	33.0%	12.9%	20.1%	2.9%	5.19	3.56	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	MIA	2	2	10	43	9	6	1	100%	5.1	20.4%	13.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	113	486	155	63	14	—	—	31.8%	12.9%	18.9%	2.9%	5.18	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	127	537	117	62	16	100%	5.1	21.8%	11.6%	10.3%	2.9%	4.84	4.72	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	132	557	126	58	16	100%	5.3	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	2.9%	4.61	4.49	+0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	135	571	133	56	16	100%	5.6	23.2%	9.8%	13.5%	2.9%	4.44	4.34	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	137	578	136	54	17	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.33	4.25	+1.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	137	578	137	54	17	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.3%	14.4%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+1.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	135	569	135	54	17	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.4%	14.4%	2.9%	4.27	4.27	+1.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	131	552	131	53	17	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.6%	14.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.35	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	125	527	123	52	17	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.2%	4.42	4.48	+0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	117	496	114	50	17	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	3.4%	4.56	4.66	+0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	110	462	105	48	17	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.4%	12.2%	3.6%	4.74	4.86	+0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	101	428	95	46	16	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	3.8%	4.95	5.09	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	63	266	58	31	7	100%	5.2	21.8%	11.6%	10.3%	2.8%	4.76	4.64	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	96	405	92	42	11	100%	5.3	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	112	473	110	46	13	100%	5.6	23.2%	9.8%	13.5%	2.7%	4.36	4.26	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	121	511	120	48	14	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.17	+0.9
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	125	528	125	49	14	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.3%	14.4%	2.7%	4.19	4.15	+1.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	125	528	125	50	15	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.4%	14.4%	2.8%	4.19	4.19	+0.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	122	515	122	49	15	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.6%	14.1%	2.9%	4.24	4.27	+0.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	119	502	118	49	15	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.39	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	112	473	109	48	15	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.57	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	104	439	99	46	15	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.4%	12.2%	3.4%	4.64	4.76	+0.0
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	96	405	90	44	15	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	205	1195	5046	1169	502	150	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.03	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	196	84	25	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		80	65	307	1356	261	189	49	81%	3.8	19.3%	13.9%	5.3%	3.6%	4.83	5.22	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	42	200	882	170	123	32	81%	3.8	19.3%	13.9%	5.3%	3.6%	4.83	5.22	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liomar Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	20.4%	13.3%	3.0%	—	4.51	22.6%	12.0%	394	-0.59	—	—	—
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	88
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	86
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	86
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	86
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	84
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	84
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	84
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	84
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	83
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	83
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	82
Zack Bird R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	18.1%	15.6%	1.9%	.281	5.37	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.78	4.59	149	82
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	82
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	82
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.73	19.9%	8.5%	305	-0.04	3.90	538	81
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	81
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.40	23.9%	12.8%	346	-0.65	3.90	519	81
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	126	22.9%	10.3%	1.20	4.55
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98