Bishop Letson

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP45OGV rank#87ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ACarolina Mudc…	16	14	63	3.13	3.81	22.2%	10.5%	—	K 16.4% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.80
2025	20	MIX2 levels	11	9	41	2.40	2.23	30.8%	7.5%	—	K 23.3% · BB 7.3% · FIP 2.44
2026	21	AAMIL	22	22	95	4.85	3.87	23.5%	11.1%	—	K 19.0% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIL	1	1	5	4.73	4.73	20.9%	11.4%	0.0
2028PROJ52% MLB	23	MLBMIL	10	10	54	4.62	4.53	22.3%	10.3%	0.6
2029PROJ71% MLB	24	MLBMIL	15	15	83	4.46	4.37	23.1%	9.6%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$5M2034Arb-3$6M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 76%

CompsWill Sanders (age 22) · Josh Bostick (age 22) · Tanner Burns (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%20.9%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$52M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$8M	+$6M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$7M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$17M		$46M	+$37M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	16	14	63	257	57	27	6	88%	4.0	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	2.8%	3.13	4.80	—
2024	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	16	14	63	257	57	27	6	88%	4.0	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	2.8%	3.13	4.80	—
2024	19	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	16	14	63	257	57	27	6	88%	4.0	22.2%	10.5%	11.7%	2.3%	3.13	3.81	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	41	159	49	12	2	82%	3.8	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	0.7%	2.40	2.44	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	41	159	49	12	2	82%	3.8	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	0.7%	2.40	2.44	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	41	159	49	12	2	82%	3.8	30.8%	7.5%	23.3%	1.3%	2.40	2.23	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	95	422	99	47	10	100%	4.3	19.0%	12.3%	6.8%	2.8%	4.85	4.61	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	95	422	99	47	10	100%	4.3	19.0%	12.3%	6.8%	2.8%	4.85	4.61	—
2026	21	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	95	422	99	47	10	100%	4.3	23.5%	11.1%	12.3%	2.4%	4.85	3.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIL	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	20.9%	11.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.73	4.73	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	105	442	98	45	12	100%	5.2	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	2.8%	4.54	4.45	+1.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	117	492	114	47	14	100%	5.6	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	2.8%	4.38	4.29	+1.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	124	525	124	48	15	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	2.8%	4.27	4.20	+1.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	124	522	124	48	15	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.1%	14.6%	2.8%	4.21	4.17	+1.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	121	509	121	47	15	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.2%	14.6%	2.9%	4.21	4.21	+1.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	115	486	115	45	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	3.0%	4.26	4.29	+1.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	107	453	106	43	14	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.1%	4.36	4.42	+1.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	98	412	95	41	14	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.9%	13.2%	3.3%	4.51	4.60	+0.9
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	87	369	83	38	13	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	3.5%	4.69	4.80	+0.6
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	77	326	72	35	12	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	3.8%	4.89	5.03	+0.3
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	68	287	62	32	12	100%	6.2	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	4.1%	5.12	5.28	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	54	228	51	23	7	100%	5.4	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.62	4.53	+0.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	83	350	81	34	10	100%	5.5	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.37	+1.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	102	431	101	40	13	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.35	4.28	+1.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	109	460	109	42	14	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.1%	14.6%	3.0%	4.29	4.25	+1.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	109	460	109	42	14	100%	6.1	23.7%	9.2%	14.6%	3.0%	4.29	4.29	+1.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	106	448	106	42	14	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	3.1%	4.34	4.37	+1.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	100	422	99	40	14	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.51	+1.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	91	384	88	38	13	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.9%	13.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.69	+0.8
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	83	350	79	36	13	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.79	4.90	+0.6
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	73	308	68	33	12	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	4.0%	4.99	5.13	+0.3
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	65	274	59	30	12	100%	5.9	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	4.3%	5.23	5.39	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	165	976	4121	953	400	135	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.3%	4.54	4.18	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	82	28	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.3%	4.54	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		49	45	199	838	159	95	20	92%	4.1	19.0%	11.4%	7.7%	2.4%	3.79	4.26	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	45	200	841	160	95	20	92%	4.1	19.0%	11.4%	7.7%	2.4%	3.79	4.26	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 95 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.61 (+0.78)K% 23.5% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.46%	—	×0.810	19.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.14%	—	×1.100	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.84%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 37 IPFIP 1.73 → 2.44 (+0.71)K% 30.3% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.28%	—	×0.770	23.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.34%	—	×1.150	7.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.70%	÷1.246	×1.250	0.71%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 1.73 → 2.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 63 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.80 (+0.96)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.18%	—	×0.740	16.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.51%	—	×1.180	12.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.101	×1.300	2.76%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bishop Letson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.31	23.0%	13.4%	346	-0.42	—	—	—
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	92
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	92
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	92
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	91
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	90
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	90
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	88
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	88
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	88
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	87
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	809	87
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	87
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	87
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	87
Rick Van Den Hurk R 2007 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.6%	11.3%	4.0%	.331	4.31	21.2%	12.5%	90	-0.57	3.27	172	87
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	86
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	86
Trenton Denholm R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	.368	4.07	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.37	579	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	86
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	103	22.9%	9.8%	1.19	4.47
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)	7.6	109	19.1%	10.3%	1.05	4.58