Bishop Letson — OGILVIE

Bishop Letson P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.9 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%22.5%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$73M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4550

CMD3550

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$12M	+$11M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$12M	+$11M
2032	Arb-1	$7M	+2.0	$10M	+$7M
2033	Arb-2	$10M	+1.8	$8M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$13M	+1.5	$7M	+$1.0M
Totals		$32M		$59M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	16	14	63	257	57	27	6	88%	4.0	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	2.8%	3.13	4.80	—
2024	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	16	14	63	257	57	27	6	88%	4.0	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	2.8%	3.13	4.80	—
2024	19	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	16	14	63	257	57	27	6	88%	4.0	22.2%	10.5%	11.7%	2.3%	3.13	3.81	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	41	159	49	12	2	82%	3.8	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	0.7%	2.40	2.44	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	41	159	49	12	2	82%	3.8	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	0.7%	2.40	2.44	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	41	159	49	12	2	82%	3.8	30.8%	7.5%	23.3%	1.3%	2.40	2.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	95	422	99	47	10	100%	4.3	19.0%	12.3%	6.8%	2.8%	4.85	4.61	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	95	422	99	47	10	100%	4.3	19.0%	12.3%	6.8%	2.8%	4.85	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	AA RAW	MIL	22	22	95	422	99	47	10	100%	4.3	23.5%	11.1%	12.3%	2.4%	4.85	3.83	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	MIL	1	1	7	29	7	3	1	100%	6.9	22.5%	9.6%	12.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.30	+0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	102	451	106	50	11	—	—	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	2.4%	4.81	4.59	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	133	563	132	50	15	100%	5.1	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.7%	4.18	4.10	+1.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	32	32	172	727	176	61	20	100%	5.4	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	2.7%	4.06	3.98	+1.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIL	31	31	175	739	182	60	20	100%	5.6	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	2.7%	3.97	3.90	+2.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIL	30	30	177	748	187	60	20	100%	5.9	24.9%	8.0%	17.0%	2.7%	3.90	3.85	+2.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIL	30	30	177	748	188	59	20	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.0%	17.2%	2.7%	3.86	3.83	+2.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIL	29	29	174	737	185	59	20	100%	6.0	25.1%	8.0%	17.1%	2.7%	3.86	3.87	+2.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIL	28	28	169	715	179	58	20	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.2%	16.8%	2.8%	3.91	3.95	+1.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	162	683	169	57	20	100%	6.0	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	3.0%	4.01	4.08	+1.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	152	642	157	56	20	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	3.2%	4.16	4.26	+1.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	142	598	144	54	20	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	3.4%	4.34	4.46	+0.7
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	131	554	131	52	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.4%	14.1%	3.6%	4.55	4.69	+0.3
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	120	508	117	50	20	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.9%	13.2%	3.9%	4.78	4.94	-0.1
2039	34	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	110	462	104	48	20	100%	6.1	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	4.2%	5.04	5.21	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	67	283	67	25	8	100%	5.2	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.9%	4.25	4.17	+0.6
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	126	532	129	45	15	100%	5.2	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	2.8%	4.13	4.05	+1.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIL	26	26	145	612	151	50	17	100%	5.6	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	2.8%	4.04	3.97	+1.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIL	27	27	157	663	165	53	19	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.0%	17.0%	2.8%	3.97	3.92	+2.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIL	27	27	162	684	172	54	19	100%	6.0	25.1%	8.0%	17.2%	2.8%	3.93	3.90	+2.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIL	27	27	162	684	172	55	20	100%	6.0	25.1%	8.0%	17.1%	2.9%	3.93	3.94	+2.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIL	26	26	159	671	168	55	20	100%	6.1	25.0%	8.2%	16.8%	3.0%	3.99	4.03	+1.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIL	26	26	154	650	161	55	20	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	3.1%	4.09	4.16	+1.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	144	608	149	53	20	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	3.3%	4.25	4.35	+1.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	135	570	137	52	20	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	3.6%	4.43	4.55	+0.7
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	125	528	124	50	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.4%	14.1%	3.8%	4.65	4.79	+0.3
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	114	481	111	48	20	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.9%	13.2%	4.1%	4.89	5.05	-0.1
2039	34	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	99	418	94	43	19	100%	6.2	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	4.4%	5.16	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		298	298	1748	7382	1799	636	237	100%	5.9	24.4%	8.6%	15.7%	3.2%	4.24	3.89	+21.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	206	73	27	100%	5.9	24.4%	8.6%	15.7%	3.2%	4.24	3.89	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		49	45	199	838	159	95	20	92%	4.1	19.0%	11.4%	7.7%	2.4%	3.79	4.26	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	45	200	841	160	95	20	92%	4.1	19.0%	11.4%	7.7%	2.4%	3.79	4.26	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bishop Letson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	22.5%	9.6%	2.8%	—	3.98	24.2%	15.7%	481	-0.32	—	—	—
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	92
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	88
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	88
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	88
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	801	87
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	87
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	87
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	87
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	87
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	86
Levi Kelly R 2019 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP	3.40	22.9%	11.3%	1.5%	.285	6.29	19.4%	-7.9%	25	+2.89	3.40	125	85
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	85
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	85
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.67	20.7%	10.8%	364	+0.72	3.95	567	85
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	84
Mason Englert R 2021 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.55	21.9%	14.9%	249	+1.12	2.74	508	84
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	84
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	84
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.4	148	24.3%	8.6%	1.17	4.16
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68