Wei-En Lin — OGILVIE

Wei-En Lin P Midland RockHounds

Age 20 LHP 6'2" / 179 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8795vR 103

ERA3.69

FIP3.69

K%26.1%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%20.1%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$48M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD5055

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.7	$9M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+1.7	$9M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$12M	+1.7	$8M	+$2M
Totals		$28M		$50M	+$35M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	13	87	350	117	22	9	50%	3.3	25.4%	6.5%	18.9%	3.1%	3.72	3.46	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	13	87	350	117	22	9	50%	3.3	25.4%	6.5%	18.9%	3.1%	3.72	3.46	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	13	87	350	117	22	9	50%	3.3	33.4%	6.3%	27.1%	2.6%	3.72	2.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	12	12	53	214	54	17	2	100%	4.4	21.6%	7.2%	14.4%	1.2%	3.23	2.85	—
YTD	20	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	12	12	53	214	54	17	2	100%	4.4	21.6%	7.2%	14.4%	1.2%	3.23	2.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	AA RAW	OAK	10	10	51	199	53	13	2	100%	5.1	26.6%	6.5%	20.1%	1.0%	1.93	2.23	—
2026	20	AAA RAW	OAK	2	2	2	15	1	4	0	100%	0.8	6.7%	26.7%	-20.0%	0.0%	43.20	5.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	82	347	91	21	10	100%	5.5	26.2%	6.1%	20.2%	3.0%	3.70	3.66	+1.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	86	364	98	21	11	100%	5.4	26.9%	5.8%	21.0%	2.9%	3.62	3.54	+1.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	90	378	103	21	11	100%	5.3	27.4%	5.6%	21.8%	2.9%	3.53	3.45	+1.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	92	387	108	21	11	100%	5.7	27.8%	5.4%	22.4%	2.8%	3.45	3.38	+1.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	93	392	110	21	11	100%	5.8	28.2%	5.3%	22.9%	2.8%	3.37	3.32	+1.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	93	392	111	21	11	100%	6.2	28.4%	5.2%	23.1%	2.8%	3.33	3.30	+1.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	91	386	109	21	11	100%	6.1	28.3%	5.3%	23.0%	2.9%	3.33	3.34	+1.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	89	375	106	20	11	100%	5.9	28.2%	5.5%	22.8%	3.0%	3.38	3.42	+1.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	85	358	100	20	11	100%	6.0	28.0%	5.7%	22.3%	3.1%	3.48	3.55	+1.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	80	336	100	17	11	100%	6.1	29.6%	5.2%	24.4%	3.3%	3.47	3.46	+1.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	74	313	92	17	11	100%	6.2	29.2%	5.5%	23.7%	3.5%	3.58	3.66	+1.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	69	290	83	17	11	100%	6.2	28.8%	5.9%	22.8%	3.8%	3.76	3.89	+0.8
2039	33	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	63	266	75	17	11	100%	6.3	28.3%	6.4%	21.9%	4.1%	3.99	4.14	+0.6
2027	21	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	41	173	45	11	5	100%	5.1	26.2%	6.1%	20.2%	2.9%	3.66	3.62	+0.6
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	63	266	71	15	8	100%	5.2	26.9%	5.8%	21.0%	2.8%	3.58	3.50	+1.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	76	321	88	18	9	100%	5.4	27.4%	5.6%	21.8%	2.8%	3.49	3.41	+1.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	82	346	96	19	10	100%	5.5	27.8%	5.4%	22.4%	2.8%	3.41	3.34	+1.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	85	359	101	19	10	100%	5.7	28.2%	5.3%	22.9%	2.8%	3.33	3.28	+1.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	87	367	104	19	10	100%	6.2	28.4%	5.2%	23.1%	2.8%	3.29	3.26	+1.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	87	367	104	20	10	100%	6.2	28.3%	5.3%	23.0%	2.8%	3.29	3.30	+1.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	84	355	100	19	10	100%	6.0	28.2%	5.5%	22.8%	2.9%	3.34	3.38	+1.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	80	338	95	19	10	100%	6.2	28.0%	5.7%	22.3%	3.0%	3.44	3.51	+1.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	76	321	95	17	10	100%	5.8	29.6%	5.2%	24.4%	3.2%	3.42	3.41	+1.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	70	296	86	16	10	100%	5.8	29.2%	5.5%	23.7%	3.5%	3.53	3.61	+1.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	65	274	79	16	10	100%	5.9	28.8%	5.9%	22.8%	3.7%	3.71	3.84	+0.8
2039	33	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	60	253	72	16	10	100%	6.0	28.3%	6.4%	21.9%	4.0%	3.93	4.08	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	164	956	4038	1138	225	123	100%	5.8	28.2%	5.6%	22.6%	3.0%	3.47	3.10	+21.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	238	47	26	100%	5.8	28.2%	5.6%	22.6%	3.0%	3.47	3.10	+4.5
Career	—	MLE		38	25	140	564	135	38	13	66%	3.7	24.0%	6.8%	17.2%	2.4%	3.54	3.23	+18.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	36	200	806	193	54	19	66%	3.7	24.0%	6.8%	17.2%	2.4%	3.54	3.23	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wei-En Lin (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.69	26.1%	6.0%	3.0%	—	3.55	26.8%	21.0%	258	-0.14	—	—	—
Nick Bennett L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	21	SP-	2.85	21.7%	5.8%	1.6%	.264	5.13	19.3%	9.8%	227	+2.28	2.85	346	77
Colton Gordon L 2022 · 2.73 FIP	23	SP-	2.73	28.4%	4.7%	2.6%	.277	4.42	20.4%	12.9%	394	+1.69	2.73	581	76
Antonio Jimenez L 2021 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP-	3.40	23.1%	8.8%	2.1%	.292	4.35	19.3%	7.8%	248	+0.95	3.33	422	74
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	74
Denny Roman L 2018 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	25.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.348	5.55	15.7%	-1.0%	21	+2.31	3.24	109	74
Brant Hurter L 2022 · 2.84 FIP	23	SP-	2.84	23.7%	5.5%	1.9%	.337	3.34	21.3%	14.5%	298	+0.50	2.84	432	73
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	73
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	72
Marcelo Martinez L 2018 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	22.0%	6.5%	2.2%	.303	5.47	18.6%	10.2%	234	+2.18	3.29	427	72
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	71
Henry Lalane L 2023 · 3.50 FIP	19	SP-	3.50	26.3%	5.7%	3.5%	.298	3.82	21.0%	9.6%	116	+0.32	2.71	227	71
John Doxakis L 2021 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	21.0%	5.3%	2.2%	.279	4.95	17.9%	5.3%	229	+1.76	3.19	332	71
Benony Robles L 2021 · 3.65 FIP	20	SP-	3.65	22.3%	10.1%	2.1%	.262	5.09	19.2%	4.5%	135	+1.44	3.65	271	71
Jaime Arias L 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	24.3%	5.2%	4.9%	.275	5.27	15.6%	5.2%	155	+0.89	4.38	243	70
Patrick Wicklander L 2022 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP-	4.88	21.5%	7.9%	4.7%	.320	5.00	16.4%	5.8%	156	+0.12	4.88	254	70
Josh Hader L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	21	SP-	3.47	22.1%	8.8%	2.0%	.287	3.41	31.9%	20.5%	307	-0.06	1.31	836	69
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	69
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	69
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	69
Noah Schultz L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	19	SP	4.07	27.0%	6.8%	4.4%	.246	3.71	21.9%	11.8%	271	-0.36	2.52	298	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	82	28.0%	5.6%	1.20	3.53
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46