Ethan Holliday — OGILVIE

Ethan HollidaySS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION152 act + 101 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .309 / .414

PA101

HR4

K%33

BB%9

BABIP300

ISO190

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 63

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT46

scouting grade only

POWER63

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$14M	+$13M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$15M	+$15M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.9	$16M	+$15M
2032	Arb-1	$6M	+3.0	$15M	+$12M
2033	Arb-2	$11M	+3.2	$15M	+$10M
2034	Arb-3	$16M	+3.2	$14M	+$7M
Totals		$35M		$90M	+$73M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	11	2	0	2	7	49	1	0	0	145	226	250	476	105	360	58	8	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	71	17	4	0	2	12	33	1	0	0	239	357	380	737	141	417	39	14	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	COL	—	152	129	27	4	1	8	16	58	5	1	1	209	320	442	762	233	292	38	11	327	108	+1	-0	+0	+2	+4	0.7
YTD	19	A	COL	—	152	122	32	5	2	9	23	43	5	1	1	262	400	557	957	295	319	28	15	412	173	+13	-0	+0	+2	+4	1.9
ROS	19	A	COL	4%	101	89	20	3	1	4	9	33	2	1	1	224	309	414	723	190	288	33	9	307	93	-1	-0	-0	+1	+3	0.3
ROS	19	MLB	COL	4%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						311	25	0	318	101	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	19	A	COL	—	156	133	27	4	1	8	16	59	5	1	1	203	312	429	740	226	279	38	10	327	108	+1	-0	-0	+2	+4	0.7
TOT	19	A	COL	—	253	218	47	7	2	12	25	91	7	2	2	215	316	431	746	215	296	36	10	319	102	+1	-0	-0	+3	+7	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	COL	45%	281	249	55	9	2	11	25	88	5	4	1	221	305	406	710	185	291	31	9	313	98	-1	+0	-0	+3	+8	1.1
2028	21	MLB	COL	62%	395	350	79	13	3	15	35	120	7	6	2	226	309	409	717	183	292	30	9	319	103	+1	+0	-0	+4	+11	1.7
2029	22	MLB	COL	68%	472	418	96	16	3	19	43	140	8	7	3	230	313	419	732	189	293	30	9	324	106	+3	+0	-0	+5	+13	2.2
2030	23	MLB	COL	71%	521	460	107	18	4	21	47	153	9	8	3	233	316	426	742	193	294	29	9	327	108	+5	+0	-1	+6	+15	2.6
2031	24	MLB	COL	71%	552	488	114	19	4	23	50	162	9	9	3	234	316	430	747	197	295	29	9	330	110	+7	+1	-1	+6	+16	2.9
2032	25	MLB	COL	71%	569	503	117	19	4	24	52	166	9	9	3	233	316	429	745	197	295	29	9	331	112	+8	+1	-1	+6	+16	3.0
2033	26	MLB	COL	71%	577	509	120	20	4	25	53	169	10	10	3	236	320	438	758	202	295	29	9	332	113	+8	+1	-1	+6	+16	3.2
2034	27	MLB	COL	69%	577	508	120	20	4	25	54	169	10	10	3	236	322	439	761	203	295	29	9	333	113	+8	+1	-1	+6	+16	3.2
2035	28	MLB	COL	69%	573	504	118	19	4	25	54	169	10	9	3	234	320	437	757	202	295	29	9	332	112	+8	+1	-1	+6	+16	3.0
2036	29	MLB	COL	67%	563	496	116	19	4	24	53	167	9	9	3	234	319	433	752	200	294	30	9	330	111	+7	+1	-2	+6	+16	2.8
2037	30	MLB	COL	66%	552	486	111	18	3	23	52	165	9	8	3	228	314	420	734	191	293	30	9	327	109	+5	+0	-3	+6	+16	2.5
2038	31	MLB	COL	65%	538	473	107	17	3	22	51	163	9	8	3	226	313	414	728	188	291	30	9	324	106	+4	+0	-3	+6	+15	2.2
2039	32	MLB	COL	65%	520	458	102	16	3	21	49	159	8	7	3	223	309	408	717	186	288	31	9	318	102	+1	+0	-4	+6	+15	1.8
2040	33	MLB	COL	65%	490	433	95	15	3	19	46	152	8	7	2	219	306	400	705	180	283	31	9	312	97	-2	+1	-5	+5	+14	1.3
2041	34	MLB	COL	60%	444	393	83	12	3	17	41	141	7	6	2	211	297	387	684	176	278	32	9	303	90	-5	+0	-5	+5	+13	0.8
2042	35	MLB	COL	56%	389	344	70	10	2	14	36	126	6	5	2	203	290	366	656	163	272	32	9	293	83	-8	+0	-6	+4	+11	0.2
2027	20	MLB	COL	45%	126	112	28	5	1	6	11	39	2	2	1	250	328	473	801	223	315	31	9	325	107	+1	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.6
2028	21	MLB	COL	62%	243	215	53	9	2	11	22	74	4	4	1	247	328	460	788	214	316	30	9	332	112	+3	+0	-0	+3	+7	1.3
2029	22	MLB	COL	68%	323	286	71	12	2	15	29	96	5	5	2	248	328	462	790	213	318	30	9	337	116	+6	+0	-0	+3	+9	1.9
2030	23	MLB	COL	71%	371	328	83	14	3	18	34	109	6	6	2	253	334	479	813	226	319	29	9	340	119	+8	+0	-0	+4	+11	2.3
2031	24	MLB	COL	71%	392	347	88	15	3	19	36	115	6	6	2	254	334	478	813	225	320	29	9	343	121	+9	+0	-0	+4	+11	2.5
2032	25	MLB	COL	71%	404	357	91	15	3	20	37	118	7	7	2	255	337	482	818	227	320	29	9	345	122	+10	+1	-0	+4	+11	2.7
2033	26	MLB	COL	71%	409	362	92	16	3	20	37	120	7	7	2	254	335	481	816	227	320	29	9	346	123	+11	+1	-0	+4	+12	2.7
2034	27	MLB	COL	69%	401	354	90	15	3	20	37	118	7	7	2	254	337	483	820	229	320	29	9	346	123	+11	+1	-0	+4	+11	2.7
2035	28	MLB	COL	69%	394	347	89	15	3	20	37	116	7	6	2	256	340	490	830	233	319	29	9	345	122	+10	+0	-1	+4	+11	2.5
2036	29	MLB	COL	67%	377	333	84	14	3	18	35	112	6	6	2	252	334	474	809	222	319	30	9	344	121	+9	+0	-1	+4	+11	2.3
2037	30	MLB	COL	66%	363	320	80	13	2	18	34	109	6	6	2	250	333	472	805	222	317	30	9	341	119	+8	+0	-2	+4	+10	2.1
2038	31	MLB	COL	65%	351	309	77	13	2	17	33	106	6	5	2	249	333	469	803	220	315	30	9	337	116	+6	+0	-2	+4	+10	1.8
2039	32	MLB	COL	65%	337	297	72	12	2	16	32	103	5	5	2	242	326	458	784	215	311	31	9	331	111	+4	+0	-3	+4	+10	1.5
2040	33	MLB	COL	65%	316	278	65	10	2	14	30	98	5	4	1	234	319	435	755	201	307	31	9	324	106	+2	+0	-3	+3	+9	1.2
2041	34	MLB	COL	60%	267	236	54	8	2	11	25	85	4	3	1	229	313	419	733	191	300	32	9	315	99	-0	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.7
2042	35	MLB	COL	56%	216	191	42	6	1	9	20	70	3	3	1	220	304	403	707	183	293	32	9	304	91	-2	+0	-3	+2	+6	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5294	4676	1159	192	37	252	489	1589	86	82	27	248	330	466	797	219	317	30	9	337	116	+96	+6	-21	+57	+150	29.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	143	24	5	31	60	195	11	10	3	249	332	470	802	221	319	30	9	337	116	+12	+1	-3	+7	+18	3.6
Career	—			—	8198	7237	1641	265	54	334	757	2491	136	123	43	227	312	417	728	190	293	30	9	322	104	+41	+7	-33	+88	+232	34.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	129	21	4	26	60	197	11	10	3	225	310	411	721	186	291	30	9	322	104	+3	+1	-3	+7	+18	2.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	71	17	4	0	2	12	33	1	0	0	239	357	380	737	141	417	39	14	338	117	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	10	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	/162	664	28	3	241	336	447	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#2Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	10	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
	/162	664	29	10	242	319	448	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	5,295	217	81	229	310	421	+53	+4	24.1	19.4
	/162	664	27	10	229	310	421	+6.7	+0.6	3.0	pk7: 15
#3Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#4Evan Gattislast yr '18 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,662 PA	6	2,662	139	3	248	300	476	+30	+20	17.0	17.0
	/162	664	35	1	248	300	476	+7.6	+4.9	4.2	pk7: 17
#5Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	9	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
#5Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	/162	664	23	11	249	308	437	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Holliday (OGILVIE)	19	33→46	47→63	46→45	57	215/316/431	215	296	12	2	36%	10%	102	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	47→50	45→40	47	217/283/352	135	277	15	5	27%	8%	76	+0.1	243/301/378	135	296	16	4	23%	7%	91	+1.1	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	50→60	47→50	43	237/292/389	152	313	18	7	30%	7%	90	+1.0	242/299/403	161	346	17	3	33%	7%	96	+1.5	244/307/431	187	323	23	5	30%	8%	103	+1.7
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	43	54→60	38→45	41	220/283/396	176	316	23	4	37%	8%	89	+0.9	203/255/348	145	298	17	4	36%	6%	64	-0.8	213/287/426	213	282	31	7	35%	9%	96	+1.2
●Gary Sánchez 2012 · A	19	43→50	48→65	45	37	217/266/360	142	312	17	4	35%	6%	71	-0.3	226/274/364	138	298	16	6	29%	5%	76	+0.0	240/315/464	224	265	32	4	23%	9%	117	+2.4
✕Eric Arce 2012 · A	20	41	55→60	47→30	47	215/313/403	188	288	23	4	32%	10%	104	+2.0	199/289/354	155	336	18	4	42%	10%	81	+0.4	142/252/289	146	259	20	0	49%	11%	47	-0.5
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	43→53	50→70	49→45	44	225/281/372	147	272	18	5	25%	7%	82	+0.5	253/302/420	167	306	22	7	25%	6%	102	+1.9	260/323/512	251	270	38	5	20%	8%	130	+3.2
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→49	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	70	-0.3	206/250/349	143	284	18	2	33%	5%	62	-0.9	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	227/283/376	149	325	15	6	34%	7%	83	+0.6	217/273/363	146	324	14	6	35%	6%	76	+0.0	247/298/412	164	344	17	8	31%	6%	96	+1.3
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	39→49	53→70	46→45	44	207/282/382	175	291	21	5	35%	9%	85	+0.7	227/308/454	227	315	29	7	35%	9%	115	+2.7	242/333/468	226	340	30	2	35%	11%	124	+3.1
✕Heriberto Hernández 2019 · A	19	43→49	54→60	46→50	55	223/325/414	191	274	20	7	26%	12%	111	+2.5	223/302/390	167	328	17	6	35%	9%	95	+1.4	221/302/428	208	278	28	9	31%	9%	103	+1.2
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	82	+0.5	219/304/418	199	291	25	6	32%	9%	104	+2.0	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Jackson Chourio 2023 · AA	19	40→50	49→60	50→55	37	208/257/357	149	297	17	12	35%	6%	67	-0.5	252/297/423	171	319	19	23	26%	6%	101	+1.8	273/321/471	198	320	23	21	22%	6%	120	+2.5
●Ian Stewart 2006 · A	21	45→52	50→60	46→45	43	226/288/390	164	303	17	4	30%	7%	89	+0.9	237/299/396	159	311	15	6	27%	7%	95	+1.4	239/315/432	193	304	23	9	28%	9%	108	+2.0
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2011 · A	19	44→47	49→60	45→30	40	227/269/373	145	281	17	4	26%	5%	76	+0.0	210/245/360	150	253	19	3	26%	4%	63	-0.9	238/283/427	188	288	25	1	27%	4%	94	+0.9
✕Nick Weglarz 2008 · A	20	43→47	50→55	44→45	46	218/295/370	152	303	18	3	33%	9%	87	+0.8	225/308/379	154	286	17	5	26%	10%	95	+1.4	223/311/383	161	271	18	5	24%	10%	95	+1.0
●Oswaldo Arcia 2011 · A	20	48→51	49→60	49→45	39	240/279/394	153	303	15	7	26%	4%	85	+0.7	244/291/427	183	329	20	4	31%	6%	100	+1.7	247/307/454	207	317	26	3	30%	7%	110	+2.1
●Mike Moustakas 2009 · A	20	43→53	49→65	46→45	43	221/268/364	143	257	17	6	22%	5%	73	-0.1	231/266/387	156	267	19	5	21%	4%	79	+0.3	264/326/513	248	264	35	2	16%	7%	131	+3.9
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	88	+0.9	191/266/284	93	290	7	5	34%	9%	52	-1.6	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
●Jay Bruce 2007 · A	20	45→54	48→65	47→50	40	225/272/380	155	303	15	11	30%	6%	79	+0.3	253/302/451	198	320	23	9	27%	6%	111	+2.5	254/334/472	219	297	28	7	24%	10%	119	+3.1
✕Roan Salas 2010 · A	20	46	50→65	46→40	45	236/285/393	157	263	17	5	18%	6%	88	+0.9	244/297/371	127	282	12	5	17%	6%	87	+0.8	268/322/383	115	301	9	3	14%	6%	98	+0.7