Ethan Holliday

SS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#304ETA2029MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ACOL	84	.239/.357/.380	2	0	38	—	.145/.226/.211
2026	19	ACOL	152	.262/.400/.557	9	1	106	—	.211/.327/.438
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBCOL	4	.231/.309/.416	0	0	90	0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB	21	MLBCOL	53	.237/.314/.430	2	1	95	0.2
2029PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCOL	119	.241/.318/.442	5	2	99	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$8M2034Arb-3$11M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

ISO97

wRC+88

wOBA87

BB%73

Chase%63

Speed50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 28, comp-based) · star 10% · didn't stick 65%

CompsEric Arce (age 20) · Samuel Basallo (age 19) · Nolan Gorman (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .309 / .416

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%9

BABIP303

ISO175

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$6M	+$1M
2034	Arb-3	$11M	+1.1	$5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$23M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	71	17	4	0	2	12	33	1	0	0	239	357	380	737	141	417	39	14	338	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	122	32	5	2	9	23	43	5	1	1	262	400	557	957	295	319	28	15	412	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	11	2	0	1	7	47	1	0	0	145	226	211	437	66	380	56	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	128	27	4	2	7	17	59	5	1	1	211	327	438	764	227	298	39	11	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	11	2	0	1	7	47	1	0	0	145	226	211	437	66	357	56	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	71	17	4	0	2	12	33	1	0	0	239	357	380	737	141	417	39	14	338	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	128	27	4	2	7	17	59	5	1	1	211	327	438	764	227	312	39	11	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	122	32	5	2	9	23	43	5	1	1	262	400	557	957	295	319	28	15	412	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	11	2	0	1	7	47	1	0	0	145	226	211	437	66	380	56	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	129	27	4	2	7	17	59	5	1	1	209	327	434	761	225	298	39	11	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	11	2	0	1	7	47	1	0	0	145	226	211	437	66	380	56	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	129	27	4	2	7	17	59	5	1	1	209	327	434	761	225	298	39	11	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	COL	4%	262	234	51	8	2	9	23	80	3	4	1	218	296	380	677	163	286	31	9	302	90	-3	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	20	MLB CTX	COL	4%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	231	309	416	725	185	303	25	0	320	90	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	COL	36%	148	132	29	5	1	5	13	44	2	2	1	222	301	393	695	171	288	30	9	309	95	-1	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	COL	49%	243	217	49	8	2	9	21	71	3	4	1	226	305	403	709	177	289	29	9	315	99	-0	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	COL	55%	336	298	68	11	2	13	30	97	5	6	2	230	309	411	720	182	290	29	9	319	102	+1	+0	-0	+4	+7	1.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	COL	56%	399	356	84	14	3	16	35	113	5	7	2	232	311	417	728	185	291	28	9	322	104	+2	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	COL	56%	435	388	90	15	3	17	38	122	6	7	2	234	312	421	734	187	292	28	9	324	106	+3	+1	+1	+5	+9	1.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	COL	56%	453	404	95	16	3	18	40	127	6	7	2	234	313	424	737	189	291	28	9	326	106	+3	+1	+1	+5	+10	2.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	COL	55%	459	409	95	16	3	18	41	129	6	7	2	233	312	421	733	188	291	28	9	324	106	+3	+1	+1	+5	+10	2.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	COL	55%	458	408	95	16	3	18	41	130	6	7	2	232	310	417	727	185	290	28	9	322	104	+2	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.8
2036	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	448	400	91	15	3	17	40	128	5	6	3	229	307	411	718	181	289	29	9	318	101	+1	+0	-1	+5	+10	1.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	COL	53%	438	392	89	15	3	16	38	127	5	6	3	227	304	403	707	177	287	29	9	314	99	-1	+0	-1	+5	+9	1.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	COL	52%	422	378	83	14	2	15	36	124	5	4	4	223	299	394	693	171	284	29	9	308	95	-3	-1	-2	+5	+9	0.8
2039	32	MLB MLE	COL	52%	399	358	78	13	2	14	34	119	4	4	9	218	293	382	675	164	280	30	9	301	90	-5	-3	-3	+4	+9	0.2
2040	33	MLB MLE	COL	56%	364	327	69	11	2	12	30	111	4	3	25	211	286	367	653	155	276	30	8	292	84	-7	-9	-4	+4	+8	-0.8
2028	21	MLB CTX	COL	36%	53	47	12	2	1	2	5	16	1	1	0	237	314	430	745	194	305	30	9	328	95	-0	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	COL	49%	119	106	25	4	1	5	10	35	2	2	1	241	318	442	760	201	306	29	8	334	99	-0	+0	-0	+1	+3	0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	COL	55%	183	163	40	6	2	8	16	53	2	3	1	244	322	450	772	206	307	29	9	339	102	+0	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	COL	56%	222	197	49	8	2	10	20	63	3	4	1	247	324	457	781	210	308	28	9	342	104	+1	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	COL	56%	244	217	54	9	2	11	22	68	3	4	1	249	326	461	787	212	308	28	9	345	106	+2	+0	+0	+3	+5	1.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	COL	56%	255	227	56	9	2	12	23	71	3	4	1	249	326	464	790	215	308	28	9	346	106	+2	+0	+0	+3	+6	1.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	COL	55%	254	226	55	9	2	11	23	71	3	4	1	248	325	461	786	213	308	28	9	345	106	+2	+0	+0	+3	+6	1.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	COL	55%	251	224	55	9	2	11	22	71	3	4	1	246	323	456	779	210	307	28	9	342	104	+1	+0	+0	+3	+5	1.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	239	213	51	8	2	10	21	68	3	3	1	244	320	449	769	205	305	28	9	338	101	+0	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.8
2037	30	MLB CTX	COL	53%	230	205	50	8	2	10	20	67	3	3	2	241	317	441	757	200	303	29	9	333	99	-0	-0	-1	+2	+5	0.6
2038	31	MLB CTX	COL	52%	220	196	46	7	2	9	19	65	3	2	2	236	312	430	742	194	300	30	9	327	95	-1	-0	-1	+2	+5	0.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	COL	52%	207	185	43	7	2	8	18	62	2	2	5	231	306	416	722	185	296	30	9	319	90	-3	-2	-1	+2	+4	0.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	COL	56%	204	183	42	6	2	8	17	62	2	2	14	224	298	400	698	176	291	30	8	309	84	-4	-5	-2	+2	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2681	2389	578	92	24	115	236	772	33	38	31	242	319	445	764	203	306	29	9	335	99	-0	-5	-4	+29	+58	7.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	140	22	6	28	57	187	8	9	8	242	318	446	764	204	305	29	9	335	99	-0	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5327	4751	1071	178	35	199	469	1575	69	72	59	225	304	403	707	178	290	30	9	314	99	-3	-9	-9	+55	+110	14.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	130	22	4	24	57	192	8	9	7	224	302	400	702	176	289	30	9	314	99	-0	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 152 PAwOBA .406 → .325 (−81)K% 28.3% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.29%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	38.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.13%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	10.91%
HBP% /PA	3.29%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	2.68%
Singles /BIP	20.25%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.015	×1.045	19.76%
Doubles /BIP	6.33%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.015	×1.045	5.57%
Triples /BIP	2.53%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.015	×1.045	2.44%
Home runs /BIP	11.39%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	9.52%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .406 → .325; ISO .295 → .233; BABIP .319 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 84 PAwOBA .325 → .224 (−101)K% 39.3% → 56.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.29%	÷0.951	×1.360	—	—	56.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.10%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.66%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.97%
Singles /BIP	28.95%	÷1.022	×0.920	—	×1.050	27.37%
Doubles /BIP	10.53%	÷1.055	×0.830	—	×1.050	8.70%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.910	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷0.870	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.08%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 103, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .325 → .224; ISO .141 → .097; BABIP .417 → .380. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#2Paul DeJonglast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,500 PA	5.3	3,500	146	29	229	294	416	+36	+35	16.1	16.0
/162	664	28	6	+6.8	+6.6	3.1	pk7: 16
#3Mike Pagliarulo'84-'95 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,317 PA	6.5	4,317	134	18	238*	304*	423*	+14	+21	14.1	14.0
/162	664	21	3	+2.2	+3.2	2.2	pk7: 14
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#5Dick Green'63-'74 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,462 PA	6.7	4,462	80	26	246*	308*	382*	+16	+18	11.8	12.8
/162	664	12	4	+2.4	+2.7	1.8	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.0	2,685	102	38	229	303	409	+29	+3	9.7	8.6
/162	664	25	9	+7.1	+0.8	2.4	pk7: 8
#6Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Holliday (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	216/294/377	161	286	3	1	30%	9%	90	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eric Arce 2012 · A	20	41	55→60	47→30	47	214/312/402	188	287	23	4	32%	10%	103	+1.5	198/287/352	154	334	18	4	42%	10%	82	-0.0	140/248/285	145	254	20	0	49%	11%	51	-0.6
✕Samuel Basallo 2024 · AA	19	48→51	51→55	49→45	45	241/301/404	163	305	18	7	27%	8%	98	+1.2	236/295/399	163	297	20	6	27%	7%	95	+0.9	227/288/392	165	278	23	3	27%	7%	90	+0.4
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	44→46	54→60	38→45	41	223/287/401	178	325	23	4	37%	8%	93	+0.8	210/264/355	145	313	16	4	36%	6%	73	-0.6	216/289/434	218	282	33	7	35%	9%	102	+1.2
●Ian Stewart 2006 · A	21	47→55	51→60	46→45	44	233/296/402	169	313	17	4	30%	8%	95	+1.0	245/307/406	161	320	15	6	27%	7%	101	+1.4	243/318/440	197	310	24	9	28%	8%	112	+2.0
✕Nick Weglarz 2008 · A	20	44→48	50	44→45	46	222/301/378	155	310	19	3	33%	9%	93	+0.8	231/317/384	153	294	16	5	25%	10%	99	+1.3	231/323/389	157	284	16	5	23%	10%	101	+1.0
✕Lazaro Montes 2024 · A	19	47	50→60	46→45	47	220/315/383	163	339	17	4	37%	10%	99	+1.3	220/305/402	182	314	23	5	35%	10%	100	+1.3	209/298/408	199	288	27	5	36%	10%	96	+1.0
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	40→50	54→70	46→45	43	211/285/395	184	296	22	5	35%	9%	91	+0.6	230/313/454	224	319	28	7	35%	10%	114	+2.4	244/332/473	229	340	30	2	35%	11%	126	+2.9
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	41→51	46→50	45→40	50	210/283/334	125	261	14	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	248/309/379	131	301	14	4	21%	8%	95	+0.9	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	45→55	52→55	45→50	49	228/310/392	164	299	20	5	30%	10%	99	+1.3	209/309/374	165	282	20	9	31%	12%	95	+1.0	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2010 · AA	21	43→53	52→55	47→45	42	225/273/392	167	271	20	4	25%	6%	85	+0.2	245/295/393	148	289	16	4	21%	5%	93	+0.8	265/317/428	163	306	18	4	19%	6%	110	+1.4
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	47→57	48→55	42→45	40	228/285/378	150	326	15	6	34%	7%	86	+0.3	222/280/369	147	333	14	6	35%	7%	82	-0.0	232/313/397	165	299	19	6	28%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	43→52	47→60	49→50	45	219/279/359	140	286	14	13	28%	8%	79	-0.2	231/278/376	145	308	14	12	28%	6%	82	+0.0	226/292/414	187	279	24	8	28%	8%	94	+0.6
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	215/300/346	131	277	14	9	26%	8%	85	+0.2	217/306/408	191	287	24	6	32%	9%	102	+1.5	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	45→48	49→60	46→50	47	220/300/377	156	305	15	6	31%	9%	92	+0.7	206/285/353	147	323	17	6	38%	9%	81	-0.1	222/305/421	199	281	26	11	30%	10%	104	+1.3
●Tyler Soderstrom 2022 · A	20	51→52	50→60	47→40	42	249/309/414	165	347	17	6	32%	7%	103	+1.5	227/279/411	184	296	24	2	31%	6%	92	+0.7	249/327/456	208	287	26	4	23%	9%	120	+2.2
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	48→55	50→55	47→50	43	240/295/394	155	317	19	7	30%	7%	93	+0.8	250/308/413	163	357	17	3	33%	7%	103	+1.5	253/318/428	175	356	19	2	32%	8%	108	+1.7
✕Xavier Isaac 2024 · A	20	45→44	51→55	55→50	48	228/303/392	164	299	18	9	29%	9%	96	+1.0	216/302/390	174	327	21	12	37%	10%	96	+1.0	205/305/390	184	309	24	14	38%	12%	94	+0.6
●Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	50→53	47→55	53→45	45	241/305/384	143	332	14	8	30%	8%	95	+0.9	257/313/415	158	319	18	5	24%	7%	105	+1.7	260/320/417	157	316	18	4	23%	8%	107	+1.6
●Gary Sánchez 2013 · A	20	46→53	49→65	48→45	37	231/276/378	147	319	17	8	33%	5%	83	+0.1	238/288/377	139	300	16	5	25%	6%	87	+0.4	245/318/474	229	271	32	4	23%	8%	121	+2.3
✕Isan Díaz 2016 · A	20	44→43	47→55	48→45	41	216/276/358	142	306	13	9	32%	7%	78	-0.3	206/276/342	136	304	13	8	34%	8%	74	-0.5	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2

Ethan Holliday

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps