Ethan Holliday — OGILVIE

Ethan HollidaySS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION152 act + 15 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP306

ISO214

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$57M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 64

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT46

scouting grade only

POWER64

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

DEFENSE51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$10M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$6M	+1.9	$10M	+$6M
2033	Arb-2	$11M	+2.0	$9M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$16M	+2.0	$9M	+$2M
Totals		$36M		$55M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	71	17	4	0	2	12	33	1	0	0	239	357	380	737	141	417	39	14	338	115	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	12	2	0	2	7	46	1	0	0	158	238	263	501	105	360	55	8	223	37	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	12	2	0	2	7	46	1	0	0	158	238	263	501	105	357	55	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	71	17	4	0	2	12	33	1	0	0	239	357	380	737	141	417	39	14	338	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	12	2	0	2	7	46	1	0	0	158	238	263	501	105	360	55	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	12	2	0	2	7	46	1	0	0	158	238	263	501	105	360	55	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A MLE	COL	—	152	129	27	4	1	8	16	58	5	1	1	209	320	442	762	233	292	38	11	327	107	+1	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A RAW	COL	—	152	122	32	5	2	9	23	43	5	1	1	262	400	557	957	295	319	28	15	412	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A MLE	COL	4%	15	14	3	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	214	267	429	695	214	288	33	7	308	95	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	19	MLB CTX	COL	4%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						306	0	0	315	95	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	19	MLB A+C	COL	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	315	106	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	A MLE	COL	—	167	143	30	4	1	9	17	63	5	1	1	210	315	441	756	231	288	38	10	325	106	+1	-0	-0	+2	+4	0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	COL	45%	240	212	48	8	2	9	22	74	4	3	1	226	311	410	721	184	290	31	9	315	100	-0	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.8
2028	21	MLB MLE	COL	62%	363	321	73	12	3	14	33	109	6	6	2	227	311	414	725	187	292	30	9	321	104	+2	+0	-0	+4	+8	1.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	COL	68%	449	398	91	15	3	18	41	132	7	7	3	229	312	417	729	188	293	29	9	326	107	+4	+0	-0	+5	+10	1.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	COL	71%	505	446	103	17	3	21	46	147	8	8	3	231	314	424	738	193	294	29	9	329	109	+5	+0	-0	+5	+11	2.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	COL	71%	541	477	113	19	4	23	50	156	9	9	3	237	321	438	759	201	294	29	9	332	111	+7	+1	-0	+6	+12	2.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	COL	71%	562	496	116	19	4	24	52	162	9	9	3	234	318	433	751	200	295	29	9	334	112	+8	+1	-0	+6	+12	2.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	COL	71%	573	505	120	20	4	25	53	165	10	10	3	238	322	442	764	204	295	29	9	335	113	+9	+1	-0	+6	+12	2.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	COL	69%	574	505	120	20	4	25	54	166	10	10	3	238	323	442	765	204	294	29	9	335	113	+9	+1	-0	+6	+12	2.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	COL	69%	571	502	118	19	4	25	54	166	10	9	3	235	322	438	760	203	294	29	9	334	112	+8	+1	-1	+6	+12	2.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	COL	67%	562	495	116	19	4	24	53	164	9	9	3	234	320	434	754	200	293	29	9	332	111	+7	+1	-2	+6	+12	2.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	COL	66%	552	486	112	18	3	24	52	163	9	9	3	230	316	428	744	198	292	30	9	330	109	+6	+1	-2	+6	+12	2.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	COL	65%	538	473	109	18	3	23	51	160	9	8	3	230	317	427	744	197	290	30	9	326	107	+4	+0	-3	+6	+12	2.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	COL	65%	520	458	102	16	3	21	49	157	8	7	3	223	309	408	717	186	287	30	9	321	103	+2	+0	-4	+6	+11	1.6
2040	33	MLB MLE	COL	65%	490	433	95	15	3	19	46	151	8	7	2	219	306	400	705	180	283	31	9	314	99	-1	+1	-4	+5	+11	1.2
2041	34	MLB MLE	COL	60%	444	392	83	12	3	17	42	139	7	6	2	212	299	388	687	176	277	31	9	305	93	-4	+0	-5	+5	+10	0.6
2042	35	MLB MLE	COL	56%	389	344	70	10	2	14	36	125	6	5	2	203	290	366	656	163	271	32	9	296	86	-6	+0	-6	+4	+8	0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	COL	45%	108	95	23	4	1	5	10	33	2	2	1	242	327	463	790	221	309	31	9	324	100	-0	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	COL	62%	223	197	48	8	2	10	20	67	4	3	1	244	326	457	783	213	310	30	9	330	104	+1	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.8
2029	22	MLB CTX	COL	68%	307	271	67	11	3	14	28	90	5	5	2	247	329	465	794	218	311	29	9	335	107	+2	+0	-0	+3	+7	1.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	COL	71%	360	318	80	14	3	17	33	104	6	6	2	252	333	475	808	223	312	29	9	339	109	+4	+0	-0	+4	+8	1.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	COL	71%	384	340	84	14	3	18	35	111	6	6	2	247	328	465	793	218	313	29	9	342	111	+5	+0	-0	+4	+8	1.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	COL	71%	399	352	89	15	3	20	37	115	7	7	2	253	336	483	819	230	314	29	9	344	112	+6	+1	-0	+4	+9	1.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	COL	71%	406	359	90	15	3	20	37	117	7	7	2	251	333	476	809	226	314	29	9	345	113	+6	+1	-0	+4	+9	2.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	COL	69%	399	352	89	15	3	20	37	115	7	7	2	253	336	483	819	230	313	29	9	345	113	+6	+1	-0	+4	+9	2.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	COL	69%	393	346	87	15	3	19	37	114	7	6	2	251	336	477	813	225	313	29	9	344	112	+6	+0	-1	+4	+9	1.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	COL	67%	376	331	82	14	3	18	36	110	6	6	2	248	332	471	804	224	312	29	10	342	111	+5	+0	-1	+4	+8	1.7
2037	30	MLB CTX	COL	66%	363	319	79	13	3	17	35	107	6	6	2	248	333	467	800	219	311	29	10	339	109	+4	+0	-2	+4	+8	1.5
2038	31	MLB CTX	COL	65%	351	309	77	13	3	17	33	105	6	5	2	249	333	476	809	227	309	30	9	335	107	+3	+0	-2	+4	+8	1.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	COL	65%	337	297	71	12	3	15	32	102	5	5	2	239	323	451	775	212	305	30	9	329	103	+1	+0	-2	+4	+7	1.0
2040	33	MLB CTX	COL	65%	316	278	64	10	2	14	30	97	5	4	2	230	316	432	748	201	301	31	9	322	99	-1	+0	-3	+3	+7	0.7
2041	34	MLB CTX	COL	60%	267	236	53	8	2	11	25	84	4	3	1	225	309	415	725	191	294	31	9	313	93	-2	+0	-3	+3	+6	0.4
2042	35	MLB CTX	COL	56%	216	191	42	6	2	9	20	69	3	3	1	220	304	414	717	194	287	32	9	303	86	-4	+0	-3	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5206	4592	1125	187	42	244	485	1540	86	81	28	245	328	463	792	218	311	30	9	335	106	+43	+5	-18	+56	+113	20.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	139	23	5	30	61	192	11	10	3	243	327	457	784	215	308	30	9	335	106	+5	+1	-2	+7	+14	2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	7972	7033	1604	259	52	329	742	2387	130	122	42	228	313	420	733	192	293	30	9	324	106	+60	+8	-28	+85	+171	30.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	131	21	4	27	60	195	11	10	3	229	313	421	734	192	294	30	9	324	106	+5	+1	-2	+7	+14	2.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	8.3	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
/162	664	28	3	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#2Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	7.4	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
/162	664	29	10	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
#3Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	9.0	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	25.0
/162	664	20	20	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.8	5,209	217	81	230	312	425	+52	+6	24.4	19.5
/162	664	28	10	+6.7	+0.7	3.1	pk7: 15
#4Evan Gattislast yr '18 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,662 PA	4.0	2,662	139	3	248	300	476	+30	+20	17.0	17.0
/162	664	35	1	+7.6	+4.9	4.2	pk7: 17
#5Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Holliday (OGILVIE)	19	33→46	51→64	46	57	214/298/389	175	288	4	1	32%	9%	95	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	43→53	50→65	49→45	44	225/281/373	148	272	18	5	25%	7%	84	+0.1	251/299/413	162	303	21	7	24%	6%	99	+1.3	258/322/495	237	270	35	4	20%	8%	121	+2.8
●Gary Sánchez 2012 · A	19	43→50	50→65	45	38	219/270/369	150	311	18	4	35%	6%	79	-0.2	226/275/362	136	297	16	6	28%	6%	78	-0.3	240/315/462	222	266	31	4	23%	8%	115	+1.9
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	43	54→60	38→45	41	219/282/393	174	319	23	4	37%	8%	88	+0.5	203/256/343	140	302	16	4	36%	6%	68	-1.0	216/289/434	218	283	32	7	35%	9%	100	+1.1
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	42→52	47→50	45→40	47	215/281/345	130	270	15	5	26%	8%	77	-0.3	241/299/370	129	293	14	4	22%	7%	89	+0.5	255/314/382	127	304	14	3	20%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Eric Arce 2012 · A	20	41	55→60	47→30	47	215/313/403	188	288	23	4	32%	10%	103	+1.6	199/289/354	155	336	18	4	42%	10%	83	+0.1	142/252/289	146	259	20	0	49%	11%	53	-0.5
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	227/283/376	149	325	15	6	34%	7%	85	+0.2	217/274/360	143	325	13	6	35%	6%	78	-0.3	230/313/394	163	297	19	6	28%	10%	99	+1.3
✕Heriberto Hernández 2019 · A	19	43→48	54→60	46→50	55	223/325/414	191	274	20	7	26%	12%	109	+2.0	222/302/389	167	323	18	6	34%	9%	95	+1.0	219/301/418	199	277	26	10	30%	9%	100	+1.0
★Corey Seager 2014 · A	20	45→55	50→65	50→45	43	233/287/390	157	292	18	9	27%	7%	90	+0.6	269/317/451	182	329	19	6	23%	6%	114	+2.4	287/349/471	183	334	20	4	19%	8%	128	+3.6
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	50→55	47→50	43	237/292/389	152	313	18	7	30%	7%	91	+0.7	242/299/400	158	345	17	3	33%	7%	96	+1.0	245/307/425	181	322	22	5	30%	8%	102	+1.3
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	38→48	54→70	46→45	42	204/276/383	178	286	22	5	35%	8%	84	+0.2	224/304/440	216	310	27	7	35%	9%	108	+1.9	243/334/470	227	339	30	2	35%	11%	122	+2.7
✕Luis Torres 2023 · A	19	51	50→60	45→50	41	254/302/415	161	312	16	9	24%	5%	101	+1.4	215/280/315	100	345	8	5	37%	7%	70	-0.9	183/261/256	73	332	4	0	42%	8%	46	-0.6
●Tyler Soderstrom 2022 · A	20	50→53	50→60	47→40	41	244/303/406	162	341	17	6	32%	7%	99	+1.3	218/270/398	180	289	24	2	32%	6%	86	+0.3	251/333/462	211	292	26	4	23%	10%	119	+2.2
●Jackson Chourio 2023 · AA	19	42→52	50→60	51→55	37	215/262/367	152	302	17	12	34%	6%	75	-0.5	250/295/412	162	311	18	23	25%	6%	97	+1.1	274/325/460	186	323	22	21	22%	7%	115	+2.3
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→50	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	74	-0.6	209/254/346	137	287	16	2	32%	5%	68	-1.0	243/303/441	198	304	26	1	28%	7%	106	+1.5
●Ian Stewart 2006 · A	21	45→52	50→60	46→45	43	226/288/390	164	303	17	4	30%	7%	90	+0.6	238/299/394	156	311	14	6	27%	7%	95	+0.9	239/315/432	193	304	23	9	28%	9%	107	+1.6
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→55	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	84	+0.1	213/299/399	186	281	23	6	32%	9%	97	+1.1	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
●Mike Moustakas 2009 · A	20	43→53	49→65	46→45	43	221/268/364	143	257	17	6	22%	5%	76	-0.4	231/267/388	157	265	19	5	21%	4%	82	-0.0	259/321/497	238	260	33	2	16%	7%	122	+2.9
✕Jaff Decker 2011 · A	21	46→49	54→55	45→55	51	235/324/415	180	304	22	7	29%	10%	109	+2.0	209/292/354	145	278	16	9	29%	10%	84	+0.1	221/295/327	106	285	9	13	24%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Roan Salas 2010 · A	20	46	50→65	46→40	45	236/285/393	157	263	17	5	18%	6%	89	+0.5	244/297/371	127	282	12	5	17%	6%	88	+0.5	268/322/383	115	301	9	3	14%	6%	99	+0.5
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	89	+0.5	191/267/284	93	292	7	5	34%	9%	57	-1.8	188/237/266	78	247	8	4	27%	6%	40	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps