Ethan Holliday — OGILVIE

Ethan HollidaySS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A H +10%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 4.2 · 2033

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .282 / .352

PA92

HR3

K%32

BB%8

MLB%4%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

22↗44

PWR

40↗63

SPD

45→45

FLD

39↗51

EYE

51↗57

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.4peak

2034

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+3.1	$28M	+$27M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.6	$33M	+$32M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+4.0	$38M	+$37M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+4.2	$41M	+$33M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+4.2	$43M	+$28M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+4.1	$43M	+$22M
Totals		$47M		$226M	+$180M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Fresno Grizzlies	84	76	12	2	0	2	7	46	1	0	0	.158	.238	.263	.501	.105	.357	55	8	.226	31	-7	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	57	48	8	1	0	1	6	23	2	1	0	.167	.286	.250	.536	.083	.280	40	11	.231	35	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
ROS	19	MLB	COL	35	32	6	1	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	.188	.257	.312	.570	.125	.290	34	9	.283	75	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.1
TOT	19	MLB	COL	92	80	14	2	0	2	9	35	2	2	0	.175	.275	.275	.550	.100	.273	38	10	.251	50	-5	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 14%	COL	201	177	40	6	1	7	19	57	3	4	1	.226	.312	.390	.701	.164	.287	28	9	.313	97	-1	+0	-0	+2	+6	0.7
2028	21	MLB 31%	COL	333	293	69	11	2	13	32	91	5	7	1	.235	.321	.420	.741	.184	.290	27	10	.324	106	+2	+1	-1	+4	+9	1.6
2029	22	MLB 51%	COL	428	376	88	14	2	17	43	115	6	8	2	.234	.322	.418	.740	.184	.292	27	10	.334	114	+7	+1	-1	+5	+12	2.4
2030	23	MLB 73%	COL	491	431	104	16	3	21	50	130	7	9	2	.241	.330	.439	.768	.197	.293	26	10	.341	119	+11	+1	-1	+5	+14	3.1
2031	24	MLB 89%	COL	532	463	114	18	3	24	56	139	8	9	2	.246	.338	.454	.791	.207	.294	26	11	.348	124	+15	+1	-1	+6	+15	3.6
2032	25	MLB	COL	556	484	120	19	3	26	59	144	8	10	2	.248	.339	.461	.800	.213	.295	26	11	.352	128	+17	+1	-1	+6	+16	4.0
2033	26	MLB	COL	568	493	123	19	3	27	62	147	8	10	1	.249	.343	.465	.807	.215	.295	26	11	.354	129	+19	+2	-1	+6	+16	4.2
2034	27	MLB	COL	572	496	123	19	3	27	63	149	8	9	1	.248	.342	.462	.804	.214	.295	26	11	.354	129	+19	+1	-1	+6	+16	4.2
2035	28	MLB	COL	569	493	122	19	3	27	63	149	8	9	1	.247	.342	.462	.805	.215	.295	26	11	.353	129	+18	+1	-2	+6	+16	4.1
2036	29	MLB	COL	561	486	119	18	3	26	62	149	8	8	1	.245	.340	.455	.795	.210	.294	27	11	.351	127	+17	+1	-2	+6	+16	3.8
2037	30	MLB	COL	551	477	116	18	3	25	61	148	8	8	0	.243	.339	.451	.790	.208	.293	27	11	.348	125	+15	+2	-3	+6	+16	3.6
2038	31	MLB	COL	538	465	112	17	3	24	60	147	8	7	0	.241	.338	.445	.783	.204	.291	27	11	.344	122	+13	+1	-4	+6	+15	3.2
2039	32	MLB	COL	519	450	106	16	2	23	57	144	7	6	0	.236	.331	.433	.764	.198	.290	28	11	.340	118	+11	+1	-5	+6	+15	2.8
2040	33	MLB	COL	490	426	98	15	2	21	54	139	7	6	0	.230	.326	.423	.749	.192	.288	28	11	.334	114	+7	+1	-5	+5	+14	2.3
2041	34	MLB	COL	443	385	87	13	2	18	49	130	6	6	0	.226	.323	.410	.733	.184	.286	29	11	.327	108	+4	+1	-6	+5	+13	1.7
2042	35	MLB	COL	389	339	75	11	2	15	42	118	5	5	0	.221	.316	.398	.714	.177	.283	30	11	.318	102	+1	+1	-6	+4	+11	1.1
2043	36	MLB	COL	329	287	61	9	1	12	35	103	4	5	0	.213	.307	.376	.683	.164	.280	31	11	.309	95	-2	+1	-7	+4	+9	0.5
2044	37	MLB	COL	265	232	48	7	1	9	28	86	3	4	0	.207	.300	.362	.662	.155	.276	32	11	.298	86	-4	+1	-8	+3	+8	-0.0
2045	38	MLB	COL	196	172	34	5	1	6	20	65	2	3	0	.198	.289	.343	.632	.145	.270	33	10	.287	78	-5	+1	-8	+2	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8650	7533	1777	273	43	371	925	2408	120	134	14	.236	.329	.431	.760	.195	.293	28	11	.337	116	+158	+21	-63	+93	+245	46.3
/ 162G	—			650	566	134	21	3	28	70	181	9	10	1	.237	.330	.433	.763	.196	.294	28	11	.337	116	+12	+2	-5	+7	+18	3.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Fresno Grizzlies	84	71	17	4	0	2	12	33	1	0	0	.239	.357	.380	.737	.141	.417	39	14	.338	117	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Holliday (OGILVIE)	19	22→44	40→63	45	57	.209/.282/.352	.143	.290	3	2	32%	8%	77	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Miguel Sanó 2012 · A	19	40→50	52→70	45	36	.209/.255/.376	.167	.298	20	5	36%	6%	71	-0.3	.215/.290/.419	.204	.296	26	6	35%	9%	98	+1.6	.243/.334/.470	.227	.340	31	2	35%	11%	124	+3.1
★Austin Riley 2016 · A	19	44→54	49→65	45→40	38	.218/.279/.361	.143	.320	17	5	36%	6%	78	+0.2	.214/.260/.366	.152	.309	18	3	36%	5%	71	-0.3	.273/.345/.498	.224	.325	30	1	25%	8%	136	+4.9
★Corey Seager 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→65	51→45	44	.231/.283/.361	.130	.288	14	9	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.250/.299/.420	.170	.314	19	7	26%	6%	101	+1.8	.291/.353/.484	.193	.337	22	4	20%	8%	135	+4.6
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	44→52	49→65	49→45	45	.226/.283/.369	.143	.276	17	6	25%	7%	81	+0.4	.250/.300/.421	.171	.300	23	7	24%	6%	102	+1.8	.258/.305/.479	.221	.284	33	5	22%	6%	116	+2.6
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	46→50	46→40	47	.216/.283/.346	.130	.273	14	5	26%	8%	75	-0.0	.241/.299/.377	.136	.292	16	4	22%	7%	90	+1.0	.259/.317/.396	.137	.305	16	3	20%	7%	100	+1.5
●Gary Sánchez 2012 · A	19	43→51	51→65	45	38	.220/.269/.377	.157	.304	20	4	34%	6%	78	+0.2	.225/.273/.367	.142	.295	17	6	29%	5%	76	+0.1	.232/.315/.480	.248	.254	37	1	26%	9%	119	+2.3
★Austin Meadows 2014 · A	19	45→55	43→65	49→55	43	.214/.282/.336	.122	.308	10	6	32%	8%	72	-0.2	.242/.292/.362	.120	.310	9	10	24%	6%	82	+0.5	.255/.336/.495	.240	.289	30	8	23%	10%	129	+2.7
●Trevor Story 2013 · A	20	40→50	46→65	53→55	41	.204/.264/.340	.136	.276	13	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	.192/.252/.330	.138	.298	14	15	38%	7%	58	-1.2	.270/.336/.500	.231	.327	29	25	26%	8%	134	+3.6
●Jay Bruce 2007 · A	20	45→55	48→65	47→50	41	.226/.275/.380	.154	.299	15	11	29%	6%	80	+0.4	.253/.301/.449	.196	.322	22	9	28%	6%	109	+2.4	.253/.334/.464	.210	.300	26	7	24%	10%	115	+2.9
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→50	45→60	43→30	45	.215/.274/.337	.122	.275	14	3	27%	7%	69	-0.4	.206/.251/.346	.140	.279	17	2	32%	5%	62	-0.9	.246/.306/.451	.204	.321	28	0	31%	7%	109	+2.0
●Mike Moustakas 2009 · A	20	43→53	49→65	46→45	43	.223/.271/.366	.143	.257	17	6	21%	5%	76	+0.0	.229/.265/.387	.158	.262	19	5	21%	4%	78	+0.2	.258/.320/.491	.233	.260	33	2	16%	7%	121	+3.2
★Xander Bogaerts 2012 · A	19	43→53	49→60	42→55	41	.222/.273/.365	.143	.281	17	4	27%	6%	76	+0.0	.244/.297/.396	.152	.312	17	5	26%	6%	94	+1.3	.293/.370/.507	.214	.325	27	7	18%	10%	148	+4.3
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2017 · A	19	42→51	43→60	49→60	34	.206/.248/.311	.105	.320	11	11	38%	5%	50	-1.7	.204/.255/.341	.137	.318	16	11	39%	6%	62	-0.9	.248/.322/.446	.198	.304	27	36	27%	9%	113	+2.3
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	.227/.283/.373	.146	.325	15	6	34%	7%	82	+0.5	.215/.270/.360	.145	.319	14	6	35%	6%	73	-0.1	.230/.314/.391	.161	.298	19	6	28%	10%	98	+1.6
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	49→55	47→50	43	.236/.291/.385	.149	.313	18	7	30%	7%	89	+0.9	.245/.301/.404	.159	.345	17	4	32%	7%	98	+1.6	.246/.310/.419	.172	.343	19	2	32%	8%	103	+1.8
●Riley Greene 2021 · A	20	44→54	44→60	53→50	39	.215/.271/.330	.115	.305	11	9	32%	6%	66	-0.6	.252/.315/.404	.152	.357	15	10	31%	8%	103	+1.9	.263/.332/.466	.203	.338	25	5	28%	9%	124	+3.1
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	41→51	47→60	46→45	46	.210/.298/.347	.138	.263	15	10	26%	8%	83	+0.6	.215/.301/.412	.197	.284	25	6	32%	9%	101	+1.8	.261/.318/.433	.172	.316	21	10	23%	6%	110	+1.8
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	43	54→60	39→45	41	.223/.285/.396	.173	.318	23	4	36%	8%	89	+1.0	.205/.259/.351	.146	.301	17	4	36%	6%	66	-0.6	.225/.289/.424	.199	.290	29	6	33%	8%	95	+1.2
★Manny Machado 2012 · A	20	43→53	44→65	48→50	44	.217/.266/.340	.124	.267	11	10	24%	6%	66	-0.6	.250/.295/.396	.146	.294	13	8	19%	6%	92	+1.2	.280/.340/.502	.222	.295	29	7	16%	8%	128	+4.3
✕Samuel Basallo 2023 · A	18	41→49	44→55	48→45	41	.207/.263/.315	.109	.281	12	4	30%	6%	59	-1.1	.234/.289/.391	.157	.301	19	7	28%	7%	89	+1.0	.233/.291/.410	.177	.289	23	6	27%	7%	93	+1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)