MacKenzie Gore — OGILVIE

MacKenzie Gore P Texas Rangers

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 193 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION162 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8795vR 103

ERA3.77

FIP3.67

K%24.9%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%15.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL4555

CMD5055

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p6224.4%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

CH+1.0 (13%)

CT+0.8 (7%)

SI (5%)

CU (18%)

SL (10%)

FB-1.3 (52%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.5M
2027	Arb-3	$13M	+1.6	$12M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.5M		$13M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	7	7	21	84	34	7	0	100%	3.0	27.5%	10.4%	17.1%	0.0%	1.27	2.10	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	7	7	21	84	34	7	0	100%	3.0	40.5%	8.3%	32.1%	0.0%	1.27	0.90	—
2018	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	16	16	61	261	74	18	5	100%	3.8	21.0%	8.1%	12.8%	2.1%	4.45	3.52	—
2018	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	16	16	61	261	74	18	5	100%	3.8	28.4%	6.9%	21.5%	1.9%	4.45	2.62	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	101	378	135	28	7	100%	5.0	27.8%	8.4%	19.4%	2.2%	1.69	3.02	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	101	378	135	28	7	100%	5.0	35.7%	7.4%	28.3%	1.9%	1.69	2.16	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	50	223	61	28	3	100%	4.2	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	1.8%	3.93	3.85	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	50	223	61	28	3	100%	4.2	27.4%	12.6%	14.8%	1.3%	3.93	3.12	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	87	380	88	41	10	86%	4.1	22.7%	10.8%	11.8%	2.6%	4.34	3.99	+0.9
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	87	380	88	41	10	86%	4.1	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	2.6%	4.34	3.99	+0.9
2023	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	27	27	136	582	151	57	27	100%	5.0	25.9%	9.8%	16.2%	4.6%	4.42	4.70	+0.3
2023	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	27	27	136	582	151	57	27	100%	5.0	25.9%	9.8%	16.2%	4.6%	4.42	4.70	+0.3
2023	24	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	27	27	136	582	151	57	27	100%	5.0	25.9%	9.8%	16.2%	4.6%	4.42	4.71	+0.3
2024	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	166	731	181	65	15	100%	5.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.1%	3.90	3.26	+3.4
2024	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	166	731	181	65	15	100%	5.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.1%	3.90	3.26	+3.4
2024	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	32	32	166	731	181	65	15	100%	5.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.1%	3.90	3.27	+3.3
2025	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	30	160	680	185	64	20	100%	5.3	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.61	+2.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	30	160	680	185	64	20	100%	5.3	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.61	+2.5
2025	26	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	30	30	160	680	185	64	20	100%	5.3	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.61	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			136	133	694	3006	761	287	87	98%	5.1	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	2.9%	4.29	3.78	+9.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	31	31	162	704	172	64	18	100%	5.2	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	2.4%	4.62	3.49	+2.8
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	31	31	162	704	172	64	18	100%	5.2	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	2.4%	4.62	3.49	+2.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	TEX	31	31	162	704	172	64	18	100%	5.2	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	2.6%	4.62	3.59	+2.6
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	TEX	31	31	162	704	172	64	18	100%	5.2	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	2.6%	4.62	3.59	+2.6
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TEX	2	2	14	58	14	5	2	100%	6.8	24.9%	9.2%	15.8%	2.8%	3.77	3.67	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	TEX	2	2	14	59	15	5	2	100%	7.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.8%	3.0%	3.88	3.78	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	175	762	186	69	20	—	—	24.5%	9.1%	15.4%	2.6%	4.55	3.51	+3.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	175	740	186	69	20	—	—	25.2%	9.4%	15.8%	2.7%	4.56	3.62	+3.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	27	27	160	674	168	63	19	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	2.8%	4.09	4.08	+1.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	152	644	157	61	19	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	4.24	+1.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	TEX	24	24	143	605	143	59	19	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.45	+0.8
2030	31	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	134	564	129	57	19	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.2%	12.8%	3.4%	4.54	4.68	+0.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	124	522	116	55	19	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.6%	11.6%	3.6%	4.78	4.94	-0.1
2032	33	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	113	479	102	53	19	100%	6.0	21.3%	11.0%	10.3%	3.9%	5.04	5.22	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	27	27	160	676	169	63	20	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	3.0%	4.20	4.19	+1.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	25	25	152	642	157	61	20	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	3.2%	4.30	4.36	+1.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	TEX	24	24	143	604	143	59	20	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	3.4%	4.47	4.58	+0.8
2030	31	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	134	566	130	58	20	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.2%	12.8%	3.6%	4.68	4.82	+0.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	TEX	21	21	124	524	116	55	20	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.6%	11.6%	3.9%	4.93	5.09	-0.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	113	477	102	53	20	100%	5.9	21.3%	11.0%	10.3%	4.2%	5.20	5.38	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		276	273	1534	6552	1591	641	211	99%	5.6	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.05	+15.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	854	207	84	28	99%	5.6	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		196	193	944	4023	1001	378	106	98%	4.8	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	2.6%	3.93	3.64	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	852	212	80	23	98%	4.8	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	2.6%	3.93	3.64	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
MacKenzie Gore (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.98	26.7%	9.3%	2.9%	—	4.25	24.4%	14.8%	456	+0.27	—	—	—
Alex Wood L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	27	SP-	3.16	21.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.285	3.70	24.6%	18.1%	187	+0.54	2.94	1,009	66
Matthew Boyd L 2018 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	22.4%	7.2%	4.0%	.252	4.32	26.2%	19.5%	324	+0.02	2.22	1,440	64
David Peterson L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	27	SP-	4.16	24.9%	10.7%	3.3%	.356	3.57	20.1%	10.9%	421	-0.59	2.81	1,061	58
Shane McClanahan L 2023 · 3.83 FIP	26	SP	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.274	3.44	21.8%	13.8%	118	-0.39	2.95	643	56
Eric Lauer L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	27	SP	4.36	23.8%	8.9%	3.9%	.258	4.48	22.3%	14.4%	294	+0.12	3.75	1,097	54
Jose Quintana L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	27	SP	3.43	21.6%	5.9%	2.6%	.291	3.82	22.8%	15.4%	534	+0.39	2.95	1,596	54
Steven Matz L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	23.2%	8.6%	3.8%	.259	4.21	22.5%	15.9%	342	-0.12	3.19	1,220	52
Max Fried L 2021 · 3.11 FIP	27	SP	3.11	23.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.274	2.86	23.6%	17.7%	437	-0.25	2.56	1,435	52
Robbie Ray L 2019 · 4.12 FIP	27	SP	4.12	31.5%	10.6%	4.2%	.298	4.10	29.5%	20.9%	434	-0.02	3.17	1,607	51
Adam Conley L 2017 · 5.07 FIP	27	SP	5.07	14.6%	8.7%	3.8%	.293	4.43	18.9%	10.6%	151	-0.64	3.55	674	50
Tyler Skaggs L 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	24.2%	7.5%	2.6%	.323	3.64	23.3%	14.9%	80	+0.22	3.18	372	50
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	48
James Paxton L 2016 · 3.09 FIP	27	SP	3.09	22.9%	5.1%	2.3%	.328	3.11	30.1%	22.8%	447	+0.02	2.46	924	47
Matt Moore L 2016 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP	4.15	21.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.282	4.64	18.6%	10.3%	276	+0.49	2.80	861	46
Andrew Heaney L 2018 · 3.77 FIP	27	SP	3.77	24.0%	6.0%	3.5%	.290	4.15	27.1%	20.1%	292	+0.38	3.19	1,197	46
Chris Sale L 2016 · 3.14 FIP	27	SP	3.14	25.7%	4.7%	2.9%	.270	2.28	36.7%	31.2%	520	-0.86	1.56	1,561	46
Roenis Elías L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	18.7%	11.2%	2.1%	.297	4.14	18.2%	10.4%	176	+0.05	3.15	564	46
Joey Lucchesi L 2019 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP	3.98	23.0%	8.2%	3.3%	.269	3.18	26.1%	19.1%	38	-0.80	3.18	817	46
Madison Bumgarner L 2017 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	22.4%	3.8%	4.1%	.267	4.10	21.7%	16.0%	379	+0.18	2.80	1,257	45
Héctor Santiago L 2015 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP	4.43	20.9%	8.5%	3.7%	.245	5.13	19.2%	8.1%	378	+0.70	4.32	713	43

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	141	23.9%	9.9%	1.23	4.40
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01