MacKenzie Gore — OGILVIE

MacKenzie Gore P Texas Rangers

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 193 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8393vR 102

ERA3.69

FIP3.60

K%26.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%16.8%

ROS IP68

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 173 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL4555

CMD5055

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p6925.7%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

CH+1.0 (11%)

CT+0.8 (9%)

SI (5%)

CU (21%)

SL (9%)

FB-1.3 (50%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+1.5	$12M	+$10M
2027	Arb-3	$13M	+2.5	$19M	+$7M
Totals		$16M		$30M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	AZL Padres	7	7	21	84	34	7	0	100%	3.0	27.5%	10.4%	17.1%	0.0%	1.27	2.10	—
2017	18	ROK	AZL Padres	7	7	21	84	34	7	0	100%	3.0	40.5%	8.3%	32.1%	0.0%	1.27	0.90	—
2018	19	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	16	16	61	261	74	18	5	100%	3.8	21.0%	8.1%	12.8%	1.8%	4.45	3.37	—
2018	19	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	16	16	61	261	74	18	5	100%	3.8	28.4%	6.9%	21.5%	1.9%	4.45	2.62	—
2019	20	MIX	2 levels	20	20	101	378	135	28	7	100%	5.0	27.8%	8.4%	19.4%	2.2%	1.69	3.04	—
2019	20	MIX	2 levels	20	20	101	378	135	28	7	100%	5.0	35.7%	7.4%	28.3%	1.9%	1.69	2.16	—
2021	22	MIX	4 levels	12	12	50	223	61	28	3	100%	4.2	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	1.6%	3.93	3.73	—
2021	22	MIX	4 levels	12	12	50	223	61	28	3	100%	4.2	27.4%	12.6%	14.8%	1.3%	3.93	3.12	—
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	21	18	87	380	88	41	10	86%	4.1	22.7%	10.8%	11.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.06	+1.1
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	21	18	87	380	88	41	10	86%	4.1	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	2.6%	4.34	3.99	+1.2
2023	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	27	27	136	582	151	57	27	100%	5.0	25.9%	9.8%	16.2%	4.6%	4.42	4.70	+1.1
2023	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	27	27	136	582	151	57	27	100%	5.0	25.9%	9.8%	16.2%	4.6%	4.42	4.71	+1.1
2024	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	32	32	166	731	181	65	15	100%	5.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.1%	3.90	3.26	+4.2
2024	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	32	32	166	731	181	65	15	100%	5.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.1%	3.90	3.27	+4.1
2025	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	30	30	160	680	185	64	20	100%	5.3	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.61	+3.3
2025	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	30	30	160	680	185	64	20	100%	5.3	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.61	+3.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	20	20	105	448	115	41	12	100%	5.2	25.7%	9.2%	16.5%	2.7%	4.63	3.56	+2.3
ROS	27	MLB	TEX	11	11	68	287	75	26	8	100%	6.2	26.0%	9.2%	16.8%	2.8%	3.69	3.60	+0.9
ROS	27	MLB	TEX	11	11	68	287	75	26	8	100%	6.2	26.0%	9.2%	16.8%	2.8%	3.71	3.62	+0.9
2026 TOT	27	MLB	TEX	—	—	173	735	190	67	20	—	—	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	2.7%	4.26	3.58	+3.7
2026 FULL	27	MLB	TEX	—	—	173	731	190	67	20	—	—	26.0%	9.2%	16.7%	2.8%	4.27	3.59	+3.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	TEX	27	27	160	674	175	63	19	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.3%	16.6%	2.9%	4.06	4.06	+2.5
2028	29	MLB	TEX	25	25	152	644	163	62	20	100%	6.1	25.4%	9.6%	15.8%	3.0%	4.16	4.22	+2.1
2029	30	MLB	TEX	24	24	143	605	149	60	20	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.32	4.43	+1.6
2030	31	MLB	TEX	22	22	134	564	135	58	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.52	4.66	+1.2
2031	32	MLB	TEX	21	21	124	522	121	55	19	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	3.7%	4.76	4.91	+0.7
2032	33	MLB	TEX	19	19	113	479	107	53	19	100%	6.0	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	4.0%	5.02	5.19	+0.3
2033	34	MLB	TEX	17	17	103	436	93	50	19	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	4.3%	5.31	5.50	-0.1
2027	28	MLB	TEX	27	27	160	676	175	63	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.3%	16.6%	2.9%	4.08	4.08	+2.5
2028	29	MLB	TEX	25	25	152	642	163	61	20	100%	6.1	25.4%	9.6%	15.8%	3.1%	4.18	4.24	+2.1
2029	30	MLB	TEX	24	24	143	604	149	60	20	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.9%	14.8%	3.3%	4.34	4.45	+1.6
2030	31	MLB	TEX	22	22	134	566	135	58	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.54	4.68	+1.1
2031	32	MLB	TEX	21	21	124	524	121	56	20	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	3.8%	4.79	4.94	+0.7
2032	33	MLB	TEX	19	19	113	477	106	53	19	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	4.0%	5.05	5.22	+0.2
2033	34	MLB	TEX	17	17	103	435	93	50	19	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	4.3%	5.34	5.53	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			293	290	1635	6961	1721	692	226	99%	5.6	24.7%	9.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.41	4.05	+25.7
/ 200 IP	—			36	35	200	852	211	85	28	99%	5.6	24.7%	9.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.41	4.05	+3.1
Career	—			185	182	888	3767	944	355	101	98%	4.8	25.1%	9.4%	15.6%	2.7%	3.88	3.65	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—			42	41	200	849	213	80	23	98%	4.8	25.1%	9.4%	15.6%	2.7%	3.88	3.65	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
MacKenzie Gore (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.99	26.7%	9.3%	2.9%	—	4.23	25.3%	15.8%	456	+0.24	—	—	—
Matthew Boyd L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	27	SP	4.40	22.4%	7.2%	4.2%	.252	4.44	26.2%	19.5%	324	+0.04	2.22	1,376	42
Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP	4.54	20.9%	8.5%	3.9%	.245	5.12	19.2%	8.1%	378	+0.58	4.40	713	42
Connor Prielipp L 2024 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP	3.55	25.3%	9.4%	2.5%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	184	42
James Paxton L 2026 · 3.18 FIP	27	SP	3.18	22.9%	5.1%	2.5%	.328	3.13	30.1%	22.8%	447	-0.05	2.48	924	41
Alex Wood L 2026 · 3.28 FIP	27	SP-	3.28	21.2%	5.5%	2.3%	.285	3.74	24.6%	18.1%	187	+0.46	3.05	1,009	41
Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.16 FIP	27	SP	4.16	21.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.282	4.66	18.6%	10.3%	276	+0.50	2.82	845	40
David Peterson L 2026 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP-	4.20	25.2%	11.3%	3.3%	.356	3.54	19.9%	10.7%	440	-0.66	2.80	1,080	40
Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	24.2%	7.5%	2.7%	.323	3.72	23.3%	14.9%	80	+0.22	3.21	372	39
Jeff Locke L 2026 · 3.71 FIP	27	SP	3.71	17.5%	7.6%	2.1%	.306	4.50	13.7%	6.5%	159	+0.79	3.71	328	39
Nick Lodolo L 2026 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	24.3%	4.7%	3.2%	.267	4.58	17.9%	8.2%	63	+1.16	1.56	516	39
Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.53 FIP	27	SP	3.53	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	112	38
Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	18.0%	8.4%	2.2%	.304	4.45	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.58	3.39	291	38
Jose Quintana L 2026 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP	3.41	21.6%	5.9%	2.5%	.291	3.72	22.8%	15.4%	534	+0.31	2.90	1,596	38
Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP	26	SP	4.14	16.8%	8.2%	2.6%	.288	5.94	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.80	2.86	282	38
Wade Miley L 2027 · 3.69 FIP	28	SP	3.69	17.7%	7.7%	2.0%	.305	4.19	18.7%	9.8%	429	+0.50	3.36	1,167	37
Tyler Lyons L 2026 · 3.57 FIP	27	SP-	3.57	22.2%	4.4%	3.2%	.313	3.57	26.0%	18.5%	158	-0.00	2.61	376	37
Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP	26	SP	4.00	16.8%	10.8%	1.7%	.343	4.52	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.52	4.00	185	37
Shane McClanahan L 2025 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	25.8%	8.7%	3.4%	.274	3.08	23.2%	15.3%	86	-0.81	3.00	611	37
Matt Krook L 2026 · 4.68 FIP	27	SP-	4.68	22.6%	12.7%	3.4%	.284	3.69	28.1%	10.6%	126	-0.99	2.37	615	37
Reid Detmers L 2026 · 3.24 FIP	27	SP	3.24	27.2%	7.7%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	690	37

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	136	24.4%	10.1%	1.30	4.47
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	7	148	22.1%	8.1%	1.24	3.92
Danny Duffy ('21)	7	124	21.7%	8.1%	1.20	4.04
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chris Archer ('22)	6	164	26.9%	8.3%	1.21	4.10