MacKenzie Gore — OGILVIE

MacKenzie Gore P Texas Rangers

+2.2 WAR

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 193 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.2 · 2026

ERA4.09

FIP4.05

xFIP3.06

SIERA3.23

K%26.1%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%16.8%

IP160

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2026

K†6065

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p7028.4%

p9032.4%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

CH+1.0 (12%)

CT+0.8 (7%)

SI (6%)

CU (21%)

SL (9%)

FB-1.3 (51%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	AZL Padres	7	7	21	84	34	7	0	27.5%	10.4%	0.0%	1.27	2.10	+0.7
2018	19	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	16	16	61	261	74	18	5	21.0%	8.1%	2.2%	4.45	3.57	+0.9
2019	20	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	20	20	101	378	135	28	7	27.8%	8.4%	2.2%	1.69	3.02	+2.6
2021	22	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	12	12	50	223	61	28	3	19.2%	11.0%	1.8%	3.93	3.84	+0.6
2022	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	21	18	87	380	88	41	10	22.7%	10.8%	2.4%	4.34	3.88	+1.3
2023	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	27	27	136	582	151	57	27	25.9%	9.8%	4.7%	4.42	4.75	+0.9
2024	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	32	32	166	731	181	65	15	24.8%	8.9%	1.8%	3.90	3.11	+4.1
2025	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	30	30	160	680	185	64	20	27.2%	9.4%	3.2%	4.17	3.77	+2.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	4	4	21	85	30	11	2	35.3%	12.9%	2.4%	3.00	3.05	+0.5
ROS	27	MLB	TEX	23	23	128	538	159	54	16	29.5%	10.0%	2.9%	3.57	3.46	+2.7
2026 Total	27	MLB	TEX	—	—	148	623	189	65	18	30.3%	10.4%	2.8%	3.49	3.40	+3.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	TEX	25	25	138	583	171	58	17	29.4%	10.0%	2.9%	3.90	3.87	+2.2
2028	29	MLB	TEX	23	23	126	530	153	54	16	28.9%	10.1%	3.0%	3.93	3.94	+1.9
2029	30	MLB	TEX	21	21	113	478	136	49	14	28.4%	10.2%	3.0%	3.99	4.04	+1.6
2030	31	MLB	TEX	18	18	102	429	119	44	13	27.8%	10.3%	3.1%	4.08	4.14	+1.3
2031	32	MLB	TEX	16	16	91	383	104	40	12	27.2%	10.5%	3.2%	4.19	4.26	+1.0
2032	33	MLB	TEX	15	15	81	340	90	36	11	26.5%	10.7%	3.3%	4.31	4.38	+0.7
2033	34	MLB	TEX	13	13	71	301	84	30	10	27.8%	10.1%	3.4%	4.27	4.25	+0.6
2034	35	MLB	TEX	11	11	62	263	71	27	9	27.1%	10.3%	3.5%	4.35	4.40	+0.4
2035	36	MLB	TEX	54	—	54	229	60	24	8	26.3%	10.5%	3.6%	4.48	4.57	+0.2
2036	37	MLB	TEX	47	—	47	198	50	21	7	25.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.64	4.74	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			169	166	804	3404	859	325	92	25.2%	9.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.66	+15.0
/ 200 IP	—			42	41	200	847	214	81	23	25.2%	9.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.66	+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
MacKenzie Gore (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.01	27.0%	9.3%	3.0%	—	3.94	28.9%	18.8%	377	-0.07	—	—	—
Darin Gorski L 2026 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP	4.96	15.2%	11.4%	3.1%	.323	4.49	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.47	4.49	206	46
Brad Mills L 2029 · 4.66 FIP	30	SP	4.66	14.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.294	6.15	14.4%	2.6%	44	+1.49	4.66	182	44
Jeff Locke L 2026 · 3.64 FIP	27	SP	3.64	17.5%	7.6%	1.9%	.306	4.65	13.7%	6.5%	159	+1.01	3.64	328	44
Mike Belfiore L 2025 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP	4.61	12.0%	9.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	135	43
Pete Hansen L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	25	SP	3.75	17.1%	7.0%	2.2%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	378	43
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2029 · 3.51 FIP	30	SP	3.51	14.9%	6.4%	1.6%	.326	3.34	16.3%	10.7%	90	-0.17	3.02	240	43
Wade Miley L 2027 · 3.78 FIP	28	SP	3.78	17.7%	7.7%	2.2%	.305	4.22	18.7%	9.8%	429	+0.44	3.34	1,167	43
Patrick Corbin L 2026 · 4.41 FIP	27	SP	4.41	18.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.317	3.03	27.0%	20.3%	592	-1.38	2.29	1,749	43
Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.36 FIP	27	SP	4.36	20.9%	8.5%	3.5%	.245	5.15	19.2%	8.1%	378	+0.79	4.34	713	43
Adam Conley L 2026 · 4.99 FIP	27	SP	4.99	14.6%	8.7%	3.7%	.293	4.40	18.9%	10.6%	151	-0.59	3.56	674	43
John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 4.35 FIP	27	SP	4.35	13.4%	10.2%	2.0%	.280	5.94	10.8%	-2.1%	12	+1.59	3.72	408	43
Chris Rusin L 2027 · 4.52 FIP	28	SP	4.52	13.5%	6.2%	3.2%	.331	3.39	20.1%	13.3%	224	-1.13	2.93	488	42
Anthony Vasquez L 2027 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	11.8%	9.3%	1.6%	.278	4.19	14.3%	7.3%	423	+0.02	4.01	642	42
Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.19 FIP	27	SP	4.19	21.2%	8.5%	3.3%	.282	4.77	18.6%	10.3%	276	+0.58	2.83	845	42
Jeffry Antigua L 2024 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	133	42
Matt Crouse L 2026 · 4.63 FIP	27	SP	4.63	12.0%	7.4%	2.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	342	42
Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 3.84 FIP	27	SP	3.84	11.7%	7.8%	1.3%	.273	4.15	16.3%	7.0%	160	+0.31	3.44	360	42
Scott Diamond L 2028 · 3.78 FIP	29	SP	3.78	12.6%	4.3%	2.2%	.330	3.45	12.7%	7.9%	166	-0.33	3.45	316	41
Matthew Kent L 2025 · 4.16 FIP	26	SP	4.16	12.0%	8.5%	1.8%	.313	4.26	12.5%	6.7%	205	+0.10	3.09	821	41
Matt Krook L 2026 · 4.69 FIP	27	SP	4.69	22.6%	12.7%	3.4%	.284	3.72	28.1%	10.6%	126	-0.97	2.65	586	41

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$6M	+2.2	$18M	+$12M
2027	Arb-3	$11M	+2.2	$18M	+$7M
Totals		$17M		$36M	+$19M