Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 206 | 862 | 177 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.5% | 4.6% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 3.36 | 2.94 | +5.9 |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 206 | 862 | 177 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.5% | 4.6% | 15.9% | 1.9% | 3.36 | 2.97 | +5.9 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 208 | 837 | 181 | 49 | 22 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.6% | 5.9% | 15.8% | 2.5% | 3.20 | 3.41 | +4.8 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 208 | 837 | 181 | 49 | 22 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.6% | 5.9% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 3.20 | 3.44 | +4.8 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 32 | 189 | 790 | 207 | 57 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 7.2% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 3.36 | +4.5 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 32 | 189 | 790 | 207 | 57 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 7.2% | 19.0% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 3.40 | +4.4 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 32 | 174 | 739 | 158 | 65 | 25 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.03 | 4.22 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 32 | 174 | 739 | 158 | 65 | 25 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.03 | 4.27 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 31 | 171 | 745 | 152 | 46 | 20 | 97% | 5.3 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 3.60 | +3.6 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 31 | 171 | 745 | 152 | 46 | 20 | 97% | 5.3 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 3.65 | +3.5 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 1 | 10 | 41 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 25% | 2.5 | 29.3% | 7.3% | 22.0% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 2.89 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 1 | 10 | 41 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 25% | 2.5 | 29.3% | 7.3% | 22.0% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 2.90 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 10 | 63 | 297 | 85 | 34 | 12 | 34% | 2.2 | 28.6% | 11.4% | 17.2% | 4.4% | 6.43 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 10 | 63 | 297 | 85 | 34 | 12 | 34% | 2.2 | 28.6% | 11.4% | 17.2% | 4.0% | 6.43 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 166 | 679 | 137 | 46 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 1.2% | 2.93 | 2.90 | +4.8 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 166 | 679 | 137 | 46 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 1.2% | 2.93 | 2.91 | +4.8 |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 76 | 32 | 7 | 94% | 5.1 | 18.8% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 3.74 | 3.33 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 76 | 32 | 7 | 94% | 5.1 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 1.8% | 3.74 | 3.48 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 170 | 717 | 135 | 63 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 3.75 | 4.32 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 170 | 717 | 135 | 63 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 3.75 | 4.30 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 92 | 51 | 18 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.05 | 4.74 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 92 | 51 | 18 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.60 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 9 | 9 | 41 | 181 | 20 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 4.6 | 11.0% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 193 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 37 | MLB | COL | — | — | 87 | 374 | 46 | 34 | 12 | — | — | 12.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.99 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 37 | MLB | COL | — | — | 87 | 366 | 46 | 34 | 13 | — | — | 12.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 61 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.28 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 95 | 402 | 48 | 42 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 11.9% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 5.74 | 6.04 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 37 | 39 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 10.7% | 11.2% | -0.4% | 4.5% | 6.18 | 6.47 | -1.4 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 61 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.58 | 5.91 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 48 | 42 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 11.9% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 6.08 | 6.38 | -1.2 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 37 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 10.7% | 11.2% | -0.4% | 5.2% | 6.56 | 6.85 | -1.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 360 | 337 | 1939 | 8172 | 1585 | 638 | 242 | 94% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.07 | +30.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 843 | 163 | 66 | 25 | 94% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 308 | 284 | 1625 | 6848 | 1428 | 501 | 179 | 92% | 5.3 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.70 | +32.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 843 | 176 | 62 | 22 | 92% | 5.3 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Quintana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.97 | 16.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | — | 6.00 | 12.0% | 1.6% | 288 | +1.03 | — | — | — |
| Eric Stults L 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 53 |
| Barry Zito L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 52 |
| Chris Narveson L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 52 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.22 | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 445 | 51 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 50 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 48 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 48 |
| Jason Lane L 2027 · 5.79 FIP | 38 | SP | 5.79 | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.79 | 164 | 48 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 47 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.19 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .273 | 4.34 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 260 | +0.15 | 3.75 | 756 | 47 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 46 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.23 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 408 | 43 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.15 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | .306 | 4.62 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.28 | 199 | 40 |
| Mark Buehrle L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.08 | 11.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 199 | 39 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 39 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 38 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.34 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .221 | 4.94 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 31 |
| Tim Hudson R 2029 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 27 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 26 |
| Aaron Harang R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 25 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 94 | 12.9% | 10.0% | 1.48 | 5.43 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Chi Chi González ('22) | 4 | 64 | 13.3% | 9.0% | 1.41 | 5.44 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |