Dax Kilby — OGILVIE

Dax KilbySS Tampa Tarpons

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs A HR +8%BB +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 3.7 · 2034

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .289 / .355

PA90

HR2

K%29

BB%8

MLB%4%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

33↗58

PWR

33↗51

SPD

58→58

FLD

33↗47

EYE

45↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.1peak

2034

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.7	$24M	+$23M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.2	$30M	+$29M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.5	$33M	+$33M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+3.6	$35M	+$28M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+3.7	$37M	+$24M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+3.5	$37M	+$18M
Totals		$42M		$197M	+$155M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Tampa Tarpons	81	71	21	2	2	0	10	16	0	16	1	.296	.383	.380	.763	.085	.382	20	12	.335	115	+1	+3	+0	+1	+2	0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	NYY	90	82	18	3	1	2	7	26	1	2	0	.220	.289	.354	.643	.134	.296	29	8	.291	81	-2	+0	-1	+1	+3	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 14%	NYY	200	179	42	7	1	6	17	54	2	5	1	.235	.308	.385	.694	.151	.306	27	8	.315	99	-0	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.7
2028	21	MLB 31%	NYY	332	295	72	12	2	10	30	87	4	9	2	.244	.322	.400	.722	.156	.308	26	9	.324	106	+2	+1	-2	+4	+9	1.4
2029	22	MLB 51%	NYY	428	380	94	15	3	14	40	108	5	11	2	.247	.327	.413	.740	.166	.310	25	9	.332	112	+6	+1	-3	+5	+12	2.1
2030	23	MLB 73%	NYY	490	434	110	18	3	17	47	121	6	12	2	.253	.335	.426	.761	.173	.310	25	10	.338	116	+9	+2	-3	+5	+14	2.7
2031	24	MLB 89%	NYY	531	467	120	19	4	19	53	129	6	13	2	.257	.340	.437	.777	.180	.311	24	10	.342	120	+12	+2	-4	+6	+15	3.2
2032	25	MLB	NYY	556	489	126	20	4	20	56	134	6	13	2	.258	.341	.438	.779	.180	.312	24	10	.346	123	+14	+2	-4	+6	+16	3.5
2033	26	MLB	NYY	568	497	129	20	4	21	59	137	7	14	2	.260	.346	.443	.789	.183	.313	24	10	.348	124	+15	+2	-4	+6	+16	3.6
2034	27	MLB	NYY	572	500	129	20	4	21	60	138	7	14	2	.258	.346	.440	.786	.182	.313	24	10	.348	124	+16	+2	-4	+6	+16	3.7
2035	28	MLB	NYY	569	497	128	20	4	21	60	138	7	13	2	.258	.346	.441	.786	.183	.313	24	11	.347	123	+15	+2	-5	+6	+16	3.5
2036	29	MLB	NYY	561	491	126	20	4	20	59	138	6	12	1	.257	.344	.436	.779	.179	.313	25	11	.345	122	+14	+2	-5	+6	+16	3.3
2037	30	MLB	NYY	551	482	122	19	4	19	58	137	6	12	1	.253	.341	.427	.768	.174	.312	25	11	.342	120	+12	+2	-6	+6	+16	3.0
2038	31	MLB	NYY	537	469	117	18	3	18	57	136	6	11	0	.249	.338	.416	.754	.166	.311	25	11	.338	117	+10	+2	-7	+6	+15	2.7
2039	32	MLB	NYY	519	453	112	17	3	17	55	134	6	10	0	.247	.337	.411	.747	.163	.310	26	11	.334	114	+8	+2	-7	+6	+15	2.4
2040	33	MLB	NYY	490	431	105	16	3	16	51	130	5	10	0	.244	.331	.406	.737	.162	.309	27	10	.328	110	+5	+2	-8	+5	+14	1.9
2041	34	MLB	NYY	443	389	94	14	3	14	46	121	5	9	0	.242	.330	.401	.731	.159	.308	27	10	.322	105	+2	+2	-8	+5	+13	1.4
2042	35	MLB	NYY	389	342	79	12	2	11	40	111	4	8	0	.231	.319	.374	.693	.143	.307	29	10	.315	99	-0	+2	-8	+4	+11	0.8
2043	36	MLB	NYY	329	289	66	9	2	9	34	97	3	7	0	.228	.316	.367	.683	.138	.305	29	10	.306	92	-3	+1	-9	+4	+9	0.3
2044	37	MLB	NYY	265	233	52	7	2	7	27	81	3	6	0	.223	.312	.361	.672	.137	.303	31	10	.296	85	-4	+1	-9	+3	+8	-0.2
2045	38	MLB	NYY	196	173	36	5	1	4	19	61	2	4	0	.208	.294	.318	.612	.110	.298	31	10	.286	77	-5	+1	-9	+2	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8697	7643	1898	293	59	286	885	2234	97	211	20	.248	.334	.414	.748	.166	.312	26	10	.333	113	+128	+34	-107	+93	+246	40.3
/ 162G	—			650	571	141	22	4	21	66	167	7	16	1	.247	.332	.410	.742	.163	.311	26	10	.333	113	+10	+3	-8	+7	+18	3.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Tampa Tarpons	81	68	24	2	2	0	13	11	0	16	1	.353	.457	.441	.898	.088	.421	14	16	.407	170	+6	+3	—	—	+2	1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dax Kilby (OGILVIE)	19	33→58	33→51	58	50	.221/.289/.355	.134	.296	2	2	29%	8%	81	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→60	54→50	42	.223/.277/.357	.134	.288	13	15	27%	6%	75	-0.0	.225/.291/.388	.163	.272	19	14	24%	8%	90	+1.0	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
★Corey Seager 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→65	51→45	44	.231/.283/.361	.130	.288	14	9	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.250/.299/.420	.170	.314	19	7	26%	6%	101	+1.8	.291/.353/.484	.193	.337	22	4	20%	8%	135	+4.6
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→52	43→50	52→55	54	.219/.321/.336	.117	.295	9	17	27%	11%	89	+1.0	.230/.314/.374	.144	.298	13	20	25%	10%	95	+1.4	.229/.316/.381	.152	.296	15	21	26%	10%	95	+0.9
★Jason Heyward 2009 · A	19	51→60	44→55	52→50	44	.250/.294/.374	.124	.300	11	9	20%	6%	85	+0.7	.261/.334/.425	.164	.305	17	10	19%	9%	117	+2.9	.255/.348/.438	.183	.301	21	14	22%	12%	121	+3.1
●Aaron Hicks 2009 · A	19	48→56	42→60	54→55	47	.230/.289/.338	.108	.295	8	12	24%	8%	75	-0.0	.221/.296/.327	.106	.300	7	12	26%	10%	76	+0.0	.247/.358/.450	.204	.280	25	11	21%	14%	127	+2.4
●Trevor Story 2012 · A	19	42→52	43→65	54→55	44	.209/.272/.318	.108	.282	10	12	29%	7%	63	-0.8	.193/.253/.326	.133	.287	13	12	36%	7%	57	-1.2	.270/.336/.500	.231	.327	29	25	26%	8%	134	+3.6
●Brandon Marsh 2018 · A	20	49→59	42→50	54→50	37	.235/.276/.347	.112	.314	8	11	27%	4%	72	-0.2	.221/.280/.325	.104	.331	8	12	33%	7%	68	-0.5	.262/.344/.424	.163	.366	16	16	30%	11%	115	+2.2
●Bo Bichette 2017 · A	19	50→60	46→60	53→55	40	.243/.287/.379	.136	.324	13	8	28%	6%	85	+0.7	.267/.312/.417	.150	.332	13	17	23%	6%	105	+2.1	.305/.346/.482	.177	.358	22	13	20%	5%	135	+4.6
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→59	41→50	50	56	.236/.325/.340	.104	.299	8	10	22%	12%	91	+1.1	.251/.334/.388	.137	.334	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	.247/.330/.386	.139	.319	14	15	25%	10%	103	+1.9
●Luis Robert Jr. 2018 · A	20	48→58	43→60	52→60	46	.224/.316/.343	.119	.317	10	15	30%	9%	89	+1.0	.228/.285/.372	.144	.324	14	22	33%	5%	83	+0.6	.284/.330/.497	.213	.339	28	17	24%	5%	131	+2.8
●Jackson Merrill 2023 · A	20	51→58	42→55	51→50	41	.244/.289/.355	.111	.326	9	12	27%	6%	79	+0.3	.259/.300/.414	.155	.299	17	12	19%	5%	99	+1.7	.266/.310/.441	.174	.301	19	10	18%	6%	107	+1.9
●Julio Rodríguez 2019 · A	18	47→56	43→60	59→55	46	.228/.289/.349	.121	.291	8	9	24%	7%	77	+0.1	.249/.303/.399	.150	.321	15	8	26%	6%	97	+1.5	.288/.348/.497	.209	.353	27	29	25%	7%	136	+3.8
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	46→50	46→40	47	.216/.283/.346	.130	.273	14	5	26%	8%	75	-0.0	.241/.299/.377	.136	.292	16	4	22%	7%	90	+1.0	.259/.317/.396	.137	.305	16	3	20%	7%	100	+1.5
●Michael Harris II 2022 · A	21	49→57	42→55	56→55	41	.237/.286/.348	.111	.312	9	19	26%	6%	76	+0.1	.271/.315/.439	.168	.332	18	21	23%	5%	112	+2.6	.278/.321/.456	.177	.328	21	21	21%	5%	116	+2.7
●Corbin Carroll 2022 · A	21	48→54	44→60	57→60	46	.229/.300/.355	.126	.326	11	18	31%	9%	84	+0.6	.252/.333/.461	.209	.312	22	31	25%	9%	125	+3.5	.245/.332/.462	.217	.278	24	37	21%	10%	121	+3.5
●David Dahl 2013 · A	19	52→58	46→60	51→55	41	.256/.291/.397	.142	.309	11	9	21%	4%	91	+1.1	.237/.267/.364	.127	.301	10	13	24%	4%	72	-0.2	.269/.321/.459	.189	.347	21	12	27%	7%	115	+2.2
●Eddie Rosario 2012 · A	20	46→55	53→60	55→50	41	.240/.280/.410	.171	.290	21	16	26%	6%	90	+1.0	.247/.285/.392	.145	.306	14	10	23%	5%	87	+0.8	.277/.313/.475	.198	.296	27	7	17%	5%	116	+2.8
●Alex Verdugo 2015 · A	19	52→58	40→50	56→45	48	.249/.301/.351	.102	.285	6	11	15%	6%	83	+0.6	.253/.290/.359	.106	.289	9	7	16%	5%	80	+0.4	.289/.349/.442	.153	.326	15	7	16%	8%	121	+2.1
●James Wood 2023 · A	20	53→59	48→60	53→55	44	.246/.318/.394	.148	.364	15	17	34%	9%	102	+1.9	.245/.320/.430	.185	.359	20	16	34%	9%	112	+2.6	.270/.366/.491	.222	.360	26	18	30%	13%	138	+3.3
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	44→52	49→65	49→45	45	.226/.283/.369	.143	.276	17	6	25%	7%	81	+0.4	.250/.300/.421	.171	.300	23	7	24%	6%	102	+1.8	.258/.305/.479	.221	.284	33	5	22%	6%	116	+2.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)