Dax Kilby — OGILVIE

Dax KilbySS Tampa Tarpons

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj PA

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .306 / .342

PA90

HR1

K%24

BB%9

ISO111

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$11M	+$11M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$12M	+$12M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$12M	+$11M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+2.4	$11M	+$9M
2034	Arb-2	$8M	+2.4	$10M	+$7M
2035	Arb-3	$12M	+2.3	$9M	+$5M
Totals		$28M		$66M	+$54M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	19	2	2	0	10	16	0	16	1	268	358	352	710	85	345	20	12	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	68	24	2	2	0	13	11	0	16	1	353	457	441	898	88	421	14	16	407	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	NYY	—	90	81	19	3	1	1	8	21	1	4	0	235	311	333	644	99	298	23	9	295	84	-2	+1	-1	+1	+3	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	NYY	36%	200	178	42	6	3	3	18	47	2	9	1	236	313	354	667	118	299	24	9	302	89	-2	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.6
2028	21	MLB	NYY	49%	332	296	70	10	4	6	30	77	3	16	1	236	313	358	671	122	300	23	9	307	93	-3	+3	-2	+4	+9	1.1
2029	22	MLB	NYY	55%	428	382	93	14	5	9	39	98	4	20	2	243	320	377	697	134	301	23	9	310	96	-2	+3	-3	+5	+12	1.6
2030	23	MLB	NYY	57%	490	438	106	16	6	10	45	112	4	23	2	242	318	374	693	132	301	23	9	313	97	-1	+4	-3	+5	+14	1.9
2031	24	MLB	NYY	57%	531	472	116	17	6	12	49	121	5	25	2	246	323	383	707	138	302	23	9	315	99	-1	+4	-3	+6	+15	2.2
2032	25	MLB	NYY	57%	556	495	120	18	6	12	51	126	5	26	2	242	319	376	695	133	302	23	9	316	100	-0	+4	-3	+6	+16	2.3
2033	26	MLB	NYY	57%	568	506	125	19	7	13	52	129	5	27	2	247	323	389	713	142	302	23	9	316	100	+0	+5	-3	+6	+16	2.4
2034	27	MLB	NYY	55%	572	509	126	19	7	13	53	130	5	27	2	248	325	389	714	141	302	23	9	316	100	+0	+5	-3	+6	+16	2.4
2035	28	MLB	NYY	55%	569	505	123	18	6	13	54	130	5	26	2	244	323	380	703	137	302	23	9	316	100	-0	+4	-4	+6	+16	2.3
2036	29	MLB	NYY	53%	561	498	120	18	6	12	53	130	5	24	2	241	320	373	694	133	301	23	9	314	98	-1	+4	-5	+6	+16	2.1
2037	30	MLB	NYY	53%	551	489	118	17	6	12	52	129	5	21	2	241	321	374	695	133	300	23	9	311	96	-2	+3	-5	+6	+16	1.8
2038	31	MLB	NYY	52%	537	476	114	17	6	11	51	127	5	18	2	239	320	370	689	130	299	24	9	307	93	-4	+3	-6	+6	+15	1.4
2039	32	MLB	NYY	52%	519	461	108	15	6	10	49	125	4	14	1	234	313	358	671	124	296	24	9	302	90	-6	+2	-7	+6	+15	1.0
2040	33	MLB	NYY	52%	490	437	100	14	5	9	46	121	4	10	1	229	308	346	654	117	293	25	9	296	85	-8	+2	-7	+5	+14	0.5
2041	34	MLB	NYY	47%	443	395	89	12	5	8	41	112	4	7	1	225	305	342	646	116	288	25	9	288	79	-11	+1	-8	+5	+13	0.0
2042	35	MLB	NYY	43%	389	347	74	9	4	6	36	101	3	4	0	213	293	314	607	101	283	26	9	279	72	-12	+1	-8	+4	+11	-0.4
2043	36	MLB	NYY	34%	329	294	61	7	3	5	30	88	2	2	0	207	285	303	588	95	278	27	9	270	65	-13	+0	-8	+4	+9	-0.8
2027	20	MLB	NYY	36%	72	64	15	2	1	1	7	17	1	3	0	234	319	344	663	109	301	24	10	298	86	-1	+1	-0	+1	+2	0.2
2028	21	MLB	NYY	49%	163	146	35	5	2	3	15	38	1	8	1	240	315	363	678	123	301	23	9	302	90	-2	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.5
2029	22	MLB	NYY	55%	233	208	51	8	3	5	21	53	2	11	1	245	320	385	705	139	302	23	9	306	92	-2	+2	-1	+2	+7	0.8
2030	23	MLB	NYY	57%	278	248	60	9	3	6	25	63	3	13	1	242	319	375	694	133	302	23	9	308	94	-2	+2	-2	+3	+8	1.0
2031	24	MLB	NYY	57%	300	266	66	10	3	7	28	68	3	14	1	248	327	387	714	139	303	23	9	310	96	-1	+2	-2	+3	+8	1.1
2032	25	MLB	NYY	57%	314	279	69	10	4	7	29	71	3	15	1	247	325	387	712	140	303	23	9	311	96	-1	+3	-2	+3	+9	1.2
2033	26	MLB	NYY	57%	321	285	72	11	4	8	30	73	3	15	1	253	330	404	734	151	303	23	9	312	97	-1	+3	-2	+3	+9	1.2
2034	27	MLB	NYY	55%	317	281	69	10	4	7	30	72	3	15	1	246	325	384	709	139	303	23	9	312	97	-1	+3	-2	+3	+9	1.2
2035	28	MLB	NYY	55%	312	277	68	10	4	7	29	72	3	14	1	245	324	386	710	141	303	23	9	311	96	-1	+2	-2	+3	+9	1.1
2036	29	MLB	NYY	53%	300	266	65	10	3	7	28	69	3	13	1	244	323	383	707	139	302	23	9	310	95	-2	+2	-3	+3	+8	1.0
2037	30	MLB	NYY	53%	290	257	62	9	3	6	28	68	3	11	1	241	323	370	693	128	302	23	10	307	93	-2	+2	-3	+3	+8	0.8
2038	31	MLB	NYY	52%	280	249	60	9	3	6	27	66	2	9	1	241	320	373	694	133	300	24	10	303	90	-3	+1	-3	+3	+8	0.6
2039	32	MLB	NYY	52%	269	240	56	8	3	5	25	65	2	7	1	233	311	354	665	121	297	24	9	298	86	-4	+1	-3	+3	+8	0.4
2040	33	MLB	NYY	52%	253	225	52	7	3	5	24	62	2	5	0	231	311	356	666	124	294	25	9	292	82	-5	+1	-4	+3	+7	0.2
2041	34	MLB	NYY	47%	209	185	42	6	2	4	20	53	2	3	0	227	309	346	655	119	289	25	10	284	76	-6	+1	-4	+2	+6	-0.1
2042	35	MLB	NYY	43%	166	149	33	4	2	3	15	43	1	2	0	221	297	336	633	114	284	26	9	275	69	-6	+0	-3	+2	+5	-0.2
2043	36	MLB	NYY	34%	111	99	21	2	1	2	10	30	1	1	0	212	291	313	604	101	278	27	9	266	62	-5	+0	-3	+1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4188	3724	896	130	48	89	391	983	38	159	12	241	319	373	692	132	302	23	9	303	90	-46	+27	-39	+45	+119	10.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	139	20	7	14	61	153	6	25	2	240	319	372	691	131	302	24	9	303	90	-7	+4	-6	+7	+18	1.7
Career	—			—	8236	7330	1743	251	94	165	767	1940	71	319	26	238	316	365	681	127	300	24	9	306	93	-69	+53	-80	+88	+233	23.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	137	20	7	13	61	153	6	25	2	237	316	363	680	126	299	24	9	306	93	-5	+4	-6	+7	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	68	24	2	2	0	13	11	0	16	1	353	457	441	898	88	421	14	16	407	170	+6	+3	—	—	+2	1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Felipe Lopezlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,864 PA	11	4,864	90	124	264	333	391	+31	-19	17.6	18.1
	/162	664	12	17	264	333	391	+4.2	-2.6	2.4	pk7: 19
#3Kolten Wonglast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,283 PA	11	4,283	86	120	256	330	390	+15	+21	18.4	17.8
	/162	664	13	19	256	330	390	+2.4	+3.2	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Jonathan Villarlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,934 PA	10	3,934	101	239	255	322	397	+24	-40	12.8	13.9
	/162	664	17	40	255	322	397	+4.0	-6.8	2.2	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,194	87	160	240	314	370	+41	-9	15.2	12.6
	/162	664	14	25	240	314	370	+6.6	-1.5	2.4	pk7: 10
#5Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#6Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dax Kilby (OGILVIE)	19	38→57	38→52	58	50	232/306/342	110	298	1	4	24%	9%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	45→53	42→50	52→55	54	215/320/330	115	290	9	18	26%	12%	88	+0.9	235/321/384	149	306	13	20	25%	10%	101	+1.8	236/324/395	159	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.2
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	49	41→45	60→65	51	234/321/343	109	284	7	29	19%	8%	91	+1.1	235/310/360	125	296	12	18	23%	8%	91	+1.1	230/307/354	124	286	8	13	21%	9%	82	+0.1
●Trent Grisham 2016 · A	19	49→50	38→60	56→55	48	230/300/314	84	311	4	19	26%	8%	73	-0.1	197/282/285	88	302	6	16	33%	10%	59	-1.1	244/330/446	203	288	24	14	23%	10%	118	+2.3
●Andrés Giménez 2019 · AA	20	51→60	40→50	53→55	43	240/302/341	101	309	5	21	23%	6%	81	+0.4	233/288/358	125	298	11	24	25%	5%	80	+0.4	261/326/416	155	313	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.0
✕Rafael Ortega 2011 · A	20	53→54	39→55	55	46	253/294/338	86	294	6	21	16%	5%	76	+0.1	228/268/320	92	291	7	20	23%	5%	61	-1.0	240/312/405	165	285	19	17	23%	9%	98	+1.2
●Victor Robles 2016 · A	19	50→54	42→50	55→60	45	240/311/353	113	291	8	21	20%	6%	89	+0.9	241/308/357	116	304	7	23	22%	5%	89	+0.9	241/311/384	143	300	12	27	22%	6%	93	+1.0
✕Carlos Jorge 2023 · A	19	44→46	47→45	63→60	45	216/296/360	144	307	13	30	32%	9%	85	+0.7	200/270/313	113	296	10	25	33%	8%	61	-1.0	209/271/302	94	301	8	33	31%	7%	55	-0.9
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	47→54	44→50	61→55	44	226/282/354	129	300	9	28	27%	7%	76	+0.1	240/293/376	136	286	14	16	21%	7%	86	+0.8	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→59	41→50	49→50	58	241/333/346	105	301	8	10	21%	12%	96	+1.5	249/334/387	138	332	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	244/330/384	140	317	13	15	25%	11%	101	+1.8
●Desmond Jennings 2008 · A	21	52→59	42→50	57→60	47	250/310/361	111	295	9	29	18%	6%	90	+1.0	254/316/374	120	301	9	32	18%	7%	95	+1.4	245/325/405	160	290	16	28	20%	9%	105	+2.2
✕Delino DeShields 2013 · A	20	46→55	41→45	61→65	44	223/285/323	100	300	8	36	27%	7%	69	-0.4	229/299/333	104	311	8	37	27%	8%	78	+0.2	242/320/339	97	323	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.6
✕Alexi Amarista 2009 · A	20	53→60	39→45	51→55	50	251/303/341	90	282	6	17	14%	7%	81	+0.4	259/302/360	101	301	5	18	15%	5%	85	+0.7	261/302/363	102	303	4	19	15%	5%	83	+0.5
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→54	37→40	56→65	55	219/317/294	75	290	3	19	23%	11%	77	+0.1	188/270/271	83	290	6	10	34%	10%	50	-1.7	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
●CJ Abrams 2021 · A	20	50→53	42→60	54→60	45	242/287/364	122	283	8	14	18%	5%	80	+0.4	248/295/367	119	308	10	25	22%	5%	85	+0.7	255/324/446	192	293	22	28	21%	7%	115	+2.5
●Rougned Odor 2014 · AA	20	48→52	44→60	52→50	40	234/276/356	122	284	10	18	21%	4%	74	-0.1	250/292/412	162	286	17	12	19%	4%	96	+1.5	256/296/443	186	285	21	10	18%	4%	103	+2.0
✕Luigi Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	49→48	39→50	56→55	43	233/284/327	94	316	5	21	27%	6%	69	-0.4	216/271/307	91	331	7	15	34%	7%	59	-1.1	220/261/367	147	345	19	15	40%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Alen Hanson 2013 · A	20	48→51	46→50	56→60	46	238/294/385	148	293	12	20	23%	7%	89	+1.0	230/270/363	133	289	11	22	24%	5%	72	-0.2	252/286/391	139	300	12	30	20%	4%	83	+0.4
✕Gorkys Hernández 2008 · A	20	53→59	39→45	58→55	43	253/288/340	88	302	6	27	18%	4%	74	-0.1	244/288/325	81	326	5	18	25%	5%	70	-0.3	263/321/381	118	325	11	16	21%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Robert Hassell III 2022 · A	20	50→54	46→45	55	46	241/306/373	132	328	12	19	29%	8%	92	+1.2	220/283/318	98	320	9	16	32%	8%	67	-0.5	232/283/322	91	306	10	19	26%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Tyson Gillies 2010 · A	21	58→64	42→45	57→55	47	278/340/388	110	339	8	25	20%	6%	108	+2.3	258/314/361	103	332	7	17	23%	6%	91	+1.1	235/280/342	107	317	7	15	27%	4%	67	-0.3