Dax Kilby

SS Tampa Tarpons

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#258ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ANYY	81	.353/.457/.441	0	16	120	—	.310/.395/.394
2026	19	A/INTL2 orgs	209	.268/.420/.476	6	17	115	—	.214/.357/.341
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBNYY	4	.226/.318/.362	0	0	92	0.0
2028PROJ45% MLB	21	MLBNYY	67	.230/.322/.374	2	2	96	0.2
2029PROJ62% MLB	22	MLBNYY	150	.234/.325/.383	4	5	99	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$4M2034Arb-2$7M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

BB%95

Speed92

Chase%85

Max EV68

K%68

Z-Con%64

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 20, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 64%

CompsEvan Carter (age 20) · Addison Russell (age 20) · Harry Ford (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .318 / .362

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%11

BABIP297

ISO139

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$34M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$6M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$5M	+$0.7M
Totals		$24M		$32M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	68	24	2	2	0	13	11	0	16	1	353	457	441	898	88	421	14	16	407	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	154	115	30	4	2	4	39	31	0	12	3	261	448	435	883	174	325	20	25	403	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	55	49	14	6	1	2	3	6	1	5	0	286	340	571	911	286	279	11	5	379	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	22	2	2	0	10	15	0	16	1	310	395	394	789	85	385	19	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	154	126	27	3	2	3	28	42	0	12	3	214	357	341	698	127	301	27	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	22	2	2	0	10	15	0	16	1	310	395	394	789	85	393	19	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	68	24	2	2	0	13	11	0	16	1	353	457	441	898	88	421	14	16	407	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	209	168	38	5	3	4	38	57	1	17	3	226	372	363	735	137	312	27	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	209	164	44	10	3	6	42	37	1	17	3	268	420	476	896	207	309	18	20	396	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	22	2	2	0	10	15	0	16	1	310	395	394	789	85	385	19	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	209	168	38	5	3	4	38	57	1	17	3	226	372	363	735	137	301	27	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	22	2	2	0	10	15	0	16	1	310	395	394	789	85	385	19	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	209	168	38	5	3	4	38	57	1	17	3	226	372	363	735	137	301	27	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	4%	264	231	52	8	2	6	29	72	2	8	1	225	317	356	673	131	297	27	11	304	92	-3	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYY	4%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	226	318	362	680	136	297	25	0	307	92	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	45%	149	130	30	5	1	4	17	40	1	4	1	229	321	367	688	138	298	27	11	310	96	-1	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	244	213	49	8	2	6	27	64	2	7	1	232	323	376	700	144	298	26	11	314	99	-0	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	68%	337	294	69	11	3	9	37	87	3	10	2	234	325	383	708	149	299	26	11	318	101	+0	+1	-1	+4	+7	1.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	70%	399	350	82	13	3	11	43	102	3	12	2	236	326	388	715	152	299	26	11	320	103	+1	+2	-1	+4	+9	1.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	70%	435	382	91	15	4	12	47	111	3	13	2	237	326	392	718	154	299	26	11	321	104	+2	+2	-1	+5	+9	1.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	71%	453	397	94	15	4	13	49	115	4	13	2	238	327	392	719	155	299	25	11	322	104	+2	+2	-1	+5	+10	1.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	69%	459	403	95	15	4	13	50	117	3	13	2	236	326	390	715	153	298	25	11	320	103	+2	+2	-1	+5	+10	1.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	69%	458	402	95	15	4	13	50	118	3	11	2	235	324	385	709	150	298	26	11	318	101	+1	+1	-2	+5	+10	1.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYY	67%	448	394	91	15	3	12	48	117	3	9	2	233	321	379	700	147	296	26	11	314	99	-1	+1	-2	+5	+10	1.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYY	66%	438	385	88	14	3	11	47	116	3	7	1	230	318	372	689	142	295	26	11	310	96	-2	+1	-3	+5	+9	1.0
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	422	371	83	13	3	10	45	113	3	3	1	226	313	362	675	136	292	27	11	304	92	-4	+0	-4	+5	+9	0.6
2039	32	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	399	352	78	12	3	9	42	109	2	1	1	221	308	350	658	129	289	27	11	297	87	-6	-0	-4	+4	+9	0.2
2040	33	MLB MLE	NYY	70%	364	321	69	10	3	8	38	101	2	0	0	215	300	336	636	121	284	28	10	288	81	-8	+0	-5	+4	+8	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	45%	67	60	14	2	1	2	7	18	0	2	0	230	322	374	696	144	298	27	10	313	96	-0	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	150	131	30	5	1	4	17	39	1	5	1	234	325	383	708	150	298	26	11	318	99	-0	+1	-1	+2	+3	0.5
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	68%	230	201	48	7	2	7	25	60	2	7	1	236	327	391	717	155	299	26	11	321	101	+0	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	70%	278	244	57	9	2	8	30	71	2	8	2	238	328	396	724	158	300	26	11	324	103	+1	+1	-1	+3	+6	1.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	70%	306	268	64	10	3	9	33	78	2	9	2	239	328	400	728	160	299	25	11	325	104	+1	+1	-1	+3	+7	1.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	71%	320	279	68	11	3	10	35	81	3	9	2	239	328	400	729	161	299	25	11	325	104	+1	+1	-1	+3	+7	1.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	69%	318	279	67	10	3	10	34	81	2	9	2	238	327	398	725	159	299	25	11	324	103	+1	+1	-1	+3	+7	1.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	69%	315	276	65	10	3	9	34	81	2	8	2	237	325	393	718	156	298	26	11	321	101	+0	+1	-1	+3	+7	1.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYY	67%	299	263	62	10	2	9	32	78	2	6	1	234	323	387	709	153	297	26	11	318	99	-0	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.9
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYY	66%	288	253	58	9	2	8	31	76	2	5	1	231	319	379	698	148	295	26	11	313	96	-1	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	275	242	55	9	2	7	29	74	2	2	1	227	315	369	684	142	293	27	11	307	92	-3	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	259	229	51	8	2	6	27	71	1	0	0	222	309	357	665	134	289	27	10	300	87	-4	+0	-3	+3	+6	0.2
2040	33	MLB CTX	NYY	70%	256	227	49	7	2	6	26	71	1	0	0	216	302	342	643	125	285	28	10	291	81	-6	+0	-3	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3361	2952	688	107	28	95	360	879	22	70	15	233	321	385	706	152	297	26	11	316	98	-9	+8	-17	+36	+73	9.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	133	21	5	18	70	170	4	14	3	233	321	382	703	149	298	26	11	316	98	-2	+2	-3	+7	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5385	4712	1092	171	46	137	598	1407	37	139	23	232	323	375	698	143	299	26	11	313	98	-15	+14	-26	+55	+110	14.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	133	21	6	17	72	170	4	17	3	234	324	381	705	148	301	26	11	313	98	-2	+2	-3	+7	+14	1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 154 PAwOBA .394 → .323 (−71)K% 20.1% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.13%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	27.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	25.32%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.030	18.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.001	×1.030	22.58%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.001	×1.030	4.07%
Triples /BIP	2.38%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.001	×1.030	2.23%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.030	3.92%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .394 → .323; ISO .174 → .149; BABIP .325 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 81 PAwOBA .398 → .345 (−53)K% 13.6% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.58%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.05%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×1.045	11.92%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	35.09%	÷1.119	×0.920	×1.050	×1.045	31.65%
Doubles /BIP	3.51%	÷1.046	×0.830	×1.050	×1.045	3.06%
Triples /BIP	3.51%	÷0.913	×0.910	×1.050	×1.045	3.84%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.842	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 124, 2B 109, 3B 83, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .398 → .345; ISO .088 → .089; BABIP .421 → .385. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2Spike Owen'83-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,615 PA	8.5	5,615	46	82	242*	322*	356*	+55	+30	15.6	15.3
/162	664	5	10	+6.5	+3.6	1.8	pk7: 15
#3Mike Bordick'90-'03 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,484 PA	9.8	6,484	91	96	250*	311*	357*	+65	-10	12.7	14.0
/162	664	9	10	+6.7	-1.0	1.3	pk7: 15
#4Jeimer Candelariolast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,576 PA	5.4	3,576	110	19	237	316	412	+8	-5	12.7	13.0
/162	664	20	4	+1.6	-0.9	2.4	pk7: 13
#5Dick Green'63-'74 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,462 PA	6.7	4,462	80	26	246*	308*	382*	+16	+18	11.8	12.8
/162	664	12	4	+2.4	+2.7	1.8	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.1	3,364	89	71	232	318	378	+36	-9	12.8	11.1
/162	664	18	14	+7.1	-1.8	2.5	pk7: 9
#6Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dax Kilby (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	223/315/352	130	297	2	3	27%	11%	92	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Evan Carter 2023 · AA	20	48→55	46→50	55	52	233/315/374	141	290	12	21	23%	10%	96	+1.0	239/326/389	150	309	14	21	25%	10%	103	+1.6	237/330/391	154	306	15	24	25%	10%	104	+0.9
✕Addison Russell 2014 · A	20	49→52	50→55	58→50	46	241/313/409	168	325	15	16	29%	8%	103	+1.6	243/305/404	161	309	18	9	26%	7%	99	+1.3	236/301/401	165	290	19	5	25%	7%	99	+1.1
✕Harry Ford 2023 · A	20	48→53	46→45	53→55	51	224/330/360	136	328	13	14	32%	11%	99	+1.3	225/334/351	126	300	12	18	26%	12%	99	+1.3	226/338/346	120	294	12	19	24%	12%	96	+0.9
✕Marcelo Mayer 2023 · A	20	48→47	48→50	55→50	46	225/305/375	150	338	15	13	35%	10%	93	+0.8	229/286/376	147	307	16	12	29%	7%	86	+0.3	240/295/371	130	302	14	9	24%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Luke Adams 2024 · A	20	42→39	44→50	53→55	51	201/318/323	122	288	11	21	31%	11%	88	+0.4	207/347/351	144	268	15	19	27%	12%	106	+1.8	200/355/358	159	246	17	19	24%	12%	108	+1.1
✕Robert Hassell III 2022 · A	20	53→55	45	55	47	251/318/381	130	337	11	19	28%	9%	98	+1.2	229/292/330	101	327	9	16	30%	8%	77	-0.3	239/292/323	84	319	8	19	26%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	51→52	45	49→50	47	249/304/371	122	299	13	11	21%	7%	91	+0.6	242/328/367	125	291	10	13	19%	10%	99	+1.3	240/330/363	124	285	10	12	18%	10%	97	+1.0
●Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	50→53	47→55	53→45	45	241/305/384	143	332	14	8	30%	8%	95	+0.9	257/313/415	158	319	18	5	24%	7%	105	+1.7	260/320/417	157	316	18	4	23%	8%	107	+1.6
✕Carlos Jorge 2024 · A	20	45→55	46→45	60	45	219/294/354	135	303	12	25	30%	8%	84	+0.1	215/278/322	107	304	10	27	30%	7%	70	-0.8	221/282/318	97	305	9	33	29%	7%	67	-0.8
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	46→54	46→65	54→50	43	228/283/366	137	295	13	16	27%	6%	82	-0.0	231/299/394	163	278	19	14	23%	8%	95	+1.0	243/309/466	223	315	29	3	32%	8%	116	+1.9
✕Alen Hanson 2013 · A	20	49→53	46→50	56→60	45	241/296/389	148	299	11	20	23%	7%	92	+0.7	244/285/377	133	308	10	22	23%	5%	84	+0.2	253/288/390	138	302	12	30	20%	4%	87	+0.3
●Luke Keaschall 2024 · A	21	49→58	44→45	56→55	46	237/309/366	129	311	10	16	26%	8%	92	+0.7	257/344/386	129	308	12	23	20%	9%	110	+2.1	267/360/392	125	312	12	25	17%	9%	117	+2.0
✕Jett Williams 2024 · AA	20	44→48	45→50	60→55	54	209/324/338	129	296	11	25	30%	12%	93	+0.8	216/310/345	129	299	10	23	28%	11%	88	+0.4	214/300/348	134	288	11	26	27%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	49→51	44→50	48→55	46	237/306/359	122	312	12	12	27%	8%	89	+0.5	247/312/378	131	315	13	16	24%	7%	96	+1.0	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●Moisés Ballesteros 2024 · AA	20	46→56	46→50	49→40	50	228/297/354	126	275	14	5	22%	9%	84	+0.2	255/315/385	130	307	14	4	21%	8%	99	+1.2	258/320/384	126	307	14	3	20%	8%	99	+1.1
✕Walker Jenkins 2024 · A	19	53	45→50	53→55	45	257/305/391	134	308	11	11	20%	6%	95	+1.0	245/323/376	131	300	11	17	21%	9%	99	+1.3	248/332/390	141	301	14	20	21%	10%	103	+1.0
●Royce Lewis 2019 · A	20	49→51	43→60	53→50	45	240/293/355	115	293	11	17	22%	6%	83	+0.1	213/260/318	105	291	9	15	29%	5%	62	-1.4	262/323/475	213	304	29	14	24%	8%	123	+1.4
●Rougned Odor 2014 · AA	20	51→56	44→60	52→50	41	248/292/374	126	301	10	18	21%	4%	87	+0.4	254/295/415	161	291	17	12	19%	4%	98	+1.2	256/295/439	183	284	21	10	18%	4%	103	+1.5
✕Termarr Johnson 2024 · A	20	44→53	49→45	50→55	55	213/330/357	143	314	17	9	34%	14%	99	+1.2	217/304/333	116	293	13	16	28%	10%	83	+0.1	212/296/315	103	281	11	21	27%	10%	74	-0.5
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→49	42→45	58→60	54	211/313/323	113	290	8	21	28%	12%	85	+0.2	220/320/345	125	277	13	33	24%	11%	93	+0.8	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8

Dax Kilby

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps