Dax Kilby — OGILVIE

Dax KilbySS Tampa Tarpons

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION154 act + 15 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†98

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%27

BB%13

BABIP302

ISO133

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$73M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 54

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER54

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$10M	+$9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$9M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+1.9	$9M	+$6M
2034	Arb-2	$11M	+1.9	$8M	+$4M
2035	Arb-3	$15M	+1.8	$7M	+$1M
Totals		$35M		$53M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	68	24	2	2	0	13	11	0	16	1	353	457	441	898	88	421	14	16	407	162	+6	+3	—	—	+2	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	21	2	2	0	10	16	0	16	1	296	383	380	763	85	369	20	12	331	110	+1	+3	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	21	2	2	0	10	16	0	16	1	296	383	380	763	85	382	20	12	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	68	24	2	2	0	13	11	0	16	1	353	457	441	898	88	421	14	16	407	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	21	2	2	0	10	16	0	16	1	296	383	380	763	85	369	20	12	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	21	2	2	0	10	16	0	16	1	296	383	380	763	85	369	20	12	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A MLE	NYY	—	154	125	27	4	2	3	29	44	0	12	3	216	364	352	716	136	308	29	19	322	104	+1	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A RAW	NYY	—	154	115	30	4	2	4	39	31	0	12	3	261	448	435	883	174	325	20	25	403	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A MLE	NYY	4%	15	13	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	154	267	154	421		301	27	13	312	98	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	19	MLB CTX	NYY	4%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						302	0	0	312	98	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	19	MLB A+C	NYY	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	312	103	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	A MLE	NYY	—	169	138	29	4	2	3	31	48	0	13	3	210	355	333	688	123	299	28	18	321	103	+1	+1	-0	+2	+4	0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	45%	241	207	48	8	2	6	30	64	2	8	2	232	335	377	712	145	300	27	12	318	102	+0	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.8
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	363	312	74	12	3	10	45	95	3	12	2	237	339	391	730	154	301	26	12	323	105	+2	+2	-2	+4	+8	1.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	68%	450	388	93	15	4	13	55	116	4	15	3	240	340	399	740	160	301	26	12	327	108	+4	+2	-2	+5	+10	1.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	71%	506	435	104	17	4	15	62	129	4	17	3	239	339	400	739	161	302	25	12	330	110	+6	+2	-3	+5	+11	2.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	71%	542	466	111	18	4	16	67	138	4	18	3	238	339	397	736	159	302	25	12	333	111	+7	+2	-3	+6	+12	2.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	71%	562	483	117	19	5	17	69	142	5	18	4	242	343	408	751	166	302	25	12	334	112	+8	+2	-3	+6	+12	2.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	71%	573	492	119	19	5	18	71	145	5	19	4	242	343	411	754	169	302	25	12	335	113	+9	+2	-3	+6	+12	2.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	69%	575	493	120	19	5	18	72	146	5	19	4	243	346	412	757	168	302	25	13	335	113	+9	+2	-3	+6	+12	2.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	69%	571	489	118	19	4	18	72	146	5	18	3	241	345	407	751	166	302	26	13	335	113	+9	+2	-4	+6	+12	2.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYY	67%	562	481	114	18	4	17	71	145	5	16	3	237	341	397	738	160	302	26	13	333	111	+8	+2	-4	+6	+12	2.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYY	66%	552	472	112	18	4	16	70	144	5	14	3	237	342	394	736	157	301	26	13	330	110	+6	+2	-5	+6	+12	2.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	538	461	108	17	4	16	68	142	4	12	2	234	338	393	730	158	299	26	13	327	107	+5	+2	-6	+6	+12	1.8
2039	32	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	520	445	103	16	4	15	66	139	4	10	2	231	336	387	722	155	296	27	13	321	104	+2	+1	-6	+6	+11	1.4
2040	33	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	490	421	95	14	4	13	62	133	4	7	1	226	331	371	701	145	292	27	13	315	99	-0	+1	-7	+5	+11	1.0
2041	34	MLB MLE	NYY	60%	444	383	83	12	3	11	55	124	3	5	1	217	320	350	670	133	287	28	12	307	94	-3	+1	-7	+5	+10	0.5
2042	35	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	389	335	70	9	3	9	48	111	3	3	1	209	313	334	648	125	281	29	12	298	88	-6	+0	-8	+4	+8	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYY	45%	108	92	21	3	1	3	14	29	1	4	1	228	336	380	717	152	302	27	13	318	102	+0	+0	-1	+1	+2	0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	223	191	45	7	2	6	28	58	2	7	1	236	339	387	727	152	302	26	13	322	105	+1	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.9
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	68%	308	265	62	10	2	9	38	79	2	10	2	234	334	389	723	155	303	26	12	326	108	+3	+1	-2	+3	+7	1.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	71%	360	310	75	12	3	11	44	92	3	12	2	242	342	406	748	165	304	26	12	329	110	+4	+2	-2	+4	+8	1.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	71%	385	332	80	13	3	12	47	98	3	13	2	241	340	407	747	166	304	25	12	332	111	+5	+2	-2	+4	+8	1.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	71%	399	344	84	14	3	13	49	101	3	13	3	244	343	416	759	172	305	25	12	333	112	+6	+1	-2	+4	+9	1.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	71%	406	350	86	14	3	14	50	103	3	13	3	246	345	423	768	177	305	25	12	334	113	+6	+1	-2	+4	+9	1.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	69%	400	344	83	13	3	13	50	102	3	13	3	241	343	410	752	169	304	26	12	334	113	+6	+1	-2	+4	+9	1.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	69%	393	338	82	13	3	13	49	100	3	12	2	243	344	414	758	172	304	25	12	333	113	+6	+2	-3	+4	+9	1.8
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYY	67%	376	323	77	12	3	12	47	97	3	11	2	238	340	406	746	167	304	26	12	332	111	+5	+1	-3	+4	+8	1.6
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYY	66%	363	311	75	12	3	12	46	94	3	9	2	241	344	415	759	174	303	26	13	329	110	+4	+1	-3	+4	+8	1.4
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	351	301	72	11	3	11	44	92	3	8	2	239	342	405	747	166	301	26	13	325	107	+3	+1	-4	+4	+8	1.2
2039	32	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	337	289	66	10	2	10	42	90	3	6	1	228	332	381	713	152	298	27	12	320	104	+1	+1	-4	+4	+7	0.9
2040	33	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	316	271	61	9	2	9	40	86	2	5	1	225	329	373	702	148	294	27	13	314	99	-0	+1	-4	+3	+7	0.6
2041	34	MLB CTX	NYY	60%	267	230	50	7	2	7	33	74	2	3	1	217	321	357	677	139	289	28	12	306	94	-2	+0	-4	+3	+6	0.3
2042	35	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	216	186	38	5	1	5	27	62	1	2	0	204	308	323	631	118	283	29	12	296	88	-3	+0	-4	+2	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5209	4478	1057	165	39	160	648	1357	40	141	28	236	338	397	735	161	300	26	12	326	107	+46	+17	-43	+56	+113	19.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	559	132	21	5	20	81	169	5	18	3	236	338	399	737	163	300	26	12	326	107	+6	+2	-5	+7	+14	2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	7974	6847	1612	252	64	228	995	2079	65	228	42	235	338	391	729	155	302	26	12	326	107	+66	+26	-66	+85	+171	28.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	558	132	21	5	19	81	169	5	19	3	237	338	394	732	158	303	26	12	326	107	+5	+2	-5	+7	+14	2.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	7.4	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.3	25.1
/162	664	17	6	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#3Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	9.0	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	25.0
/162	664	20	20	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#4B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	8.8	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
/162	664	19	34	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#5Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	7.5	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#6Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	7.7	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
/162	664	20	11	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.8	5,212	151	141	236	334	393	+52	-8	26.1	20.9
/162	664	19	18	+6.7	-1.0	3.3	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dax Kilby (OGILVIE)	19	41→57	41→54	58	54	223/327/357	133	301	2	5	27%	13%	98	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	55	216/324/330	114	293	8	18	27%	12%	91	+0.6	237/321/380	143	308	13	20	25%	10%	100	+1.3	237/324/389	152	306	14	21	25%	10%	100	+0.9
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→60	41→50	49→50	58	237/329/342	104	299	8	10	22%	12%	94	+0.9	248/333/382	134	332	12	14	26%	11%	104	+1.6	244/329/380	136	317	13	15	25%	11%	100	+1.3
✕Jaff Decker 2009 · A	19	53→49	43→55	53→55	59	249/353/369	120	330	10	10	25%	13%	109	+2.0	230/321/393	163	306	18	8	29%	11%	103	+1.6	214/305/383	170	280	20	8	30%	10%	95	+0.7
●CJ Abrams 2022 · AA	21	53→52	42→60	56→60	43	251/300/368	117	320	8	22	23%	6%	88	+0.5	248/297/383	135	295	13	29	20%	5%	91	+0.7	254/324/453	199	297	22	30	22%	7%	115	+2.5
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	52→58	41→45	46→50	51	249/316/346	97	301	9	15	20%	9%	90	+0.6	231/301/326	95	276	7	10	18%	9%	79	-0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
✕Addison Russell 2014 · A	20	47→53	49→55	58→50	45	233/304/395	162	313	15	16	29%	8%	97	+1.1	240/303/397	157	305	17	9	26%	7%	97	+1.1	239/310/406	168	295	19	5	25%	8%	97	+0.9
●Jackson Merrill 2023 · A	20	51→57	43→60	51→50	42	247/291/361	114	327	10	12	27%	6%	83	+0.1	260/301/422	162	298	18	11	19%	5%	102	+1.5	266/313/459	193	307	23	15	21%	6%	112	+2.1
●Luis Robert Jr. 2018 · A	20	47→57	44→65	53→60	47	224/318/346	122	316	10	16	30%	9%	92	+0.7	229/285/369	140	326	14	22	32%	5%	84	+0.1	282/328/497	215	335	28	17	24%	5%	126	+2.4
★Corey Seager 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→65	51→45	44	231/283/363	132	287	14	9	25%	6%	82	-0.0	251/300/422	171	316	18	7	26%	6%	101	+1.4	287/349/471	183	334	20	4	19%	8%	128	+3.6
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51	43→50	50→55	51	244/315/357	114	300	9	14	21%	9%	92	+0.7	228/318/325	97	308	8	17	26%	11%	86	+0.3	228/320/369	141	283	16	24	24%	11%	94	+0.8
●David Dahl 2013 · A	19	53→57	46→60	51→55	41	259/293/403	145	311	11	10	21%	4%	94	+0.9	238/269/364	126	304	9	14	24%	4%	76	-0.4	267/318/453	186	342	20	12	27%	7%	112	+1.7
●Junior Caminero 2023 · A	20	46→54	50→65	53→45	44	239/293/388	149	284	20	10	24%	6%	91	+0.7	256/302/442	186	299	26	6	23%	6%	107	+1.9	258/322/495	237	270	35	4	20%	8%	121	+2.8
●James Wood 2023 · A	20	53→60	48→60	53→55	44	248/320/397	150	365	15	17	34%	9%	103	+1.6	246/322/426	180	358	19	16	34%	10%	111	+2.1	266/369/481	215	355	25	19	29%	14%	133	+3.8
●Bo Bichette 2017 · A	19	50→60	47→60	53→55	40	246/288/387	141	326	13	8	28%	6%	88	+0.5	264/309/413	149	329	13	17	23%	6%	103	+1.5	296/337/473	177	345	22	13	20%	5%	126	+3.5
✕Robert Hassell III 2022 · A	20	51→53	44→45	55	47	245/311/372	127	329	11	19	28%	8%	94	+0.9	224/286/321	97	321	9	16	30%	8%	73	-0.6	228/280/309	81	303	8	19	26%	6%	64	-0.9
✕Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	48→54	47→55	53→45	45	235/299/375	141	327	14	8	31%	8%	90	+0.6	251/308/406	155	312	17	5	24%	7%	101	+1.4	256/316/410	154	310	18	4	23%	8%	102	+1.3
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	50→51	46→45	49→50	47	248/302/374	126	296	14	11	21%	7%	91	+0.7	233/316/354	121	279	10	13	19%	9%	92	+0.7	238/315/361	123	274	12	9	17%	8%	91	+0.6
●Jurickson Profar 2012 · A	19	49→55	45→60	53→50	50	236/304/384	148	275	10	14	18%	8%	94	+0.9	237/300/364	127	280	11	11	19%	8%	88	+0.4	259/355/422	163	286	18	7	16%	11%	120	+2.5
●Jason Heyward 2009 · A	19	53→60	44→60	52→50	45	259/305/382	123	313	10	9	21%	6%	93	+0.8	266/343/434	168	312	17	10	19%	10%	120	+2.8	262/354/456	194	309	22	14	22%	12%	126	+3.1
●Andrés Giménez 2019 · AA	20	51→60	40→50	53→55	43	241/301/340	99	308	6	21	23%	5%	83	+0.1	231/284/348	117	297	10	24	25%	4%	79	-0.2	260/325/413	154	312	16	25	21%	5%	105	+1.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps