Hurston Waldrep — OGILVIE

Hurston Waldrep P Atlanta Braves

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.5 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA3.97

FIP4.02

K%21.7%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD4045

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

FB+3.4 (21%)

SL+2.7 (12%)

SI (18%)

CU (13%)

CT-1.4 (23%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.599 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.1	$7M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$11M	+1.0	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$31M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	8	29	123	41	16	1	100%	3.7	33.3%	13.0%	20.3%	0.8%	1.53	2.38	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	8	29	123	41	16	1	100%	3.7	33.3%	13.0%	20.3%	0.8%	1.53	2.38	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	8	29	123	41	16	1	100%	3.7	33.3%	13.0%	20.3%	0.8%	1.53	2.38	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	21	21	100	446	100	53	8	100%	4.8	19.3%	10.4%	8.9%	1.6%	4.40	3.65	+1.5
2024	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	21	21	100	446	100	53	8	100%	4.8	19.3%	10.4%	8.9%	1.6%	4.40	3.65	+1.5
2024	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	21	21	100	446	100	53	8	100%	4.8	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	1.8%	4.40	3.73	+1.4
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	148	637	147	71	11	97%	5.1	20.6%	10.4%	10.3%	1.9%	3.83	3.72	+2.1
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	148	637	147	71	11	97%	5.1	20.6%	10.4%	10.3%	1.9%	3.83	3.72	+2.1
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	148	637	147	71	11	97%	5.1	23.1%	11.1%	11.9%	1.7%	3.83	3.52	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	13	74	321	67	39	9	87%	4.9	20.9%	12.1%	8.7%	2.8%	4.99	4.45	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	9	8	29	130	24	23	4	89%	3.2	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	5.4%	4.97	6.95	-0.7
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	9	8	29	130	24	23	4	89%	3.2	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	5.4%	4.97	6.95	-0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	ATL	2	2	4	18	4	5	0	100%	2.0	22.2%	27.8%	-5.6%	0.0%	2.25	4.74	—
2026	24	AA RAW	ATL	1	1	4	15	3	0	1	100%	3.7	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	6.7%	9.82	5.07	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	ATL	3	3	11	41	8	8	0	100%	3.6	19.5%	19.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.84	3.92	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	ATL	3	2	11	56	9	10	3	67%	3.6	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	5.4%	8.44	6.95	-0.2
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	ATL	3	2	11	56	9	10	3	67%	3.6	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	5.4%	8.44	6.95	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ATL	2	2	13	55	12	7	1	100%	6.6	21.7%	11.8%	9.8%	2.3%	3.97	4.02	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	ATL	2	2	13	55	12	7	1	100%	6.5	21.7%	11.8%	9.8%	2.3%	3.97	4.02	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	42	185	36	30	5	—	—	19.4%	15.9%	3.5%	2.8%	4.66	6.03	-0.7
FULL	24	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	24	100	36	30	5	—	—	35.8%	29.4%	6.4%	5.2%	8.24	6.68	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ATL	30	30	177	748	171	83	19	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.1%	11.7%	2.6%	4.40	4.36	+1.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	30	30	177	748	174	81	19	100%	5.9	23.3%	10.8%	12.5%	2.6%	4.33	4.30	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	174	737	171	79	20	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.33	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	174	737	170	79	20	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	ATL	28	28	167	703	158	77	21	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.57	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	157	661	144	75	21	100%	6.0	21.8%	11.3%	10.5%	3.1%	4.67	4.78	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	146	616	130	72	21	100%	6.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.4%	3.3%	4.88	5.01	-0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	135	570	115	69	20	100%	5.9	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	3.6%	5.11	5.27	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	ATL	29	29	168	709	162	79	18	100%	5.8	22.8%	11.1%	11.7%	2.6%	4.40	4.36	+1.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	28	28	168	709	165	76	18	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.8%	12.5%	2.6%	4.33	4.30	+1.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	28	28	166	701	163	75	19	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.33	+1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	28	28	166	701	162	75	19	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	ATL	26	26	158	667	150	73	19	100%	6.1	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.57	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	ATL	25	25	149	629	137	71	20	100%	6.0	21.8%	11.3%	10.5%	3.1%	4.67	4.78	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	139	587	123	68	20	100%	6.0	21.0%	11.7%	9.4%	3.3%	4.88	5.01	-0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	ATL	21	21	128	540	109	65	19	100%	6.1	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	3.6%	5.11	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	224	1329	5622	1251	629	163	99%	5.9	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	2.9%	4.57	4.23	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	188	95	25	99%	5.9	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	2.9%	4.57	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		67	65	307	1336	279	152	27	97%	4.6	20.9%	11.4%	9.6%	2.0%	3.90	3.89	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	871	182	99	18	97%	4.6	20.9%	11.4%	9.6%	2.0%	3.90	3.89	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hurston Waldrep (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	22.9%	11.1%	2.2%	—	4.33	23.1%	12.3%	529	+0.17	—	—	—
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	84
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	82
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	82
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	81
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	81
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	80
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	80
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	79
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	79
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Josh Roberson R 2019 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	17.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.298	5.37	21.7%	5.5%	60	+1.70	3.17	229	78
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	78
Tristan Beck R 2019 · 3.48 FIP	23	SP	3.48	19.1%	10.1%	1.3%	.375	4.02	20.2%	11.7%	141	+0.54	3.48	495	77
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	77
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.3	163	22.4%	11.1%	1.10	4.50
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45