Hurston Waldrep

P Atlanta Braves

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX5 levels	21	21	100	4.40	3.73	22.4%	11.9%	2.0	K 19.7% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.62
2025	23	MIX2 levels	29	28	148	3.83	3.52	23.1%	11.1%	3.4	K 21.1% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.68
2026	24	MIX4 levels	9	8	29	4.97	5.62	18.5%	17.7%	-0.1	K 16.1% · BB 17.9% · FIP 6.95
2027PROJ	25	MLBATL	15	15	88	4.46	4.56	22.5%	12.1%	0.9
2028PROJ88% MLB	26	MLBATL	16	16	99	4.45	4.47	23.1%	11.7%	1.1
2029PROJ91% MLB	27	MLBATL	13	13	77	4.47	4.49	23.0%	11.4%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.163First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$4M2031Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo45

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsAntonio Guzman (age 27) · Ryan Jennings (age 25) · Stephen Fife (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.46

FIP4.56

K%22.5%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP106

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.163 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.6M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$18M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	8	29	123	41	16	1	100%	3.7	33.3%	13.0%	20.3%	0.8%	1.53	2.38	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	8	29	123	41	16	1	100%	3.7	33.3%	13.0%	20.3%	0.8%	1.53	2.38	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	21	21	100	446	100	53	8	100%	4.8	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	1.6%	4.40	3.62	+2.2
2024	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	21	21	100	446	100	53	8	100%	4.8	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	1.6%	4.40	3.62	+2.2
2024	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	21	21	100	446	100	53	8	100%	4.8	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	1.8%	4.40	3.73	+2.0
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	148	637	147	71	11	97%	5.1	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	1.9%	3.83	3.68	+3.1
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	148	637	147	71	11	97%	5.1	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	1.9%	3.83	3.68	+3.1
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	148	637	147	71	11	97%	5.1	23.1%	11.1%	11.9%	1.7%	3.83	3.52	+3.4
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	8	29	130	24	23	4	89%	3.2	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	5.4%	4.97	6.95	-0.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	8	29	130	24	23	4	89%	3.2	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	5.4%	4.97	6.95	-0.5
2026	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	9	8	29	130	24	23	4	89%	3.2	18.5%	17.7%	0.8%	3.1%	4.97	5.62	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	13	74	321	67	39	9	87%	4.9	20.9%	12.1%	8.7%	2.8%	4.99	4.45	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ATL	15	15	88	372	84	45	10	100%	5.9	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	2.6%	4.46	4.56	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	112	471	109	55	13	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.7%	11.5%	2.7%	4.45	4.47	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	85	359	83	41	10	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.47	4.49	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	74	311	71	35	9	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.52	4.56	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	61	258	57	30	8	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.63	4.71	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	48	202	44	24	6	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.80	4.92	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	ATL	6	6	36	150	31	18	5	100%	5.9	20.8%	12.2%	8.6%	3.4%	5.01	5.15	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	99	418	97	49	11	100%	6.2	23.1%	11.7%	11.5%	2.7%	4.45	4.47	+1.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	77	325	75	37	9	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.47	4.49	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	68	287	66	33	8	100%	6.2	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.52	4.56	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	57	241	54	28	7	100%	5.7	22.2%	11.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.63	4.71	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	45	190	41	22	6	100%	5.6	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.80	4.92	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	34	144	30	17	5	100%	5.7	20.8%	12.2%	8.6%	3.4%	5.01	5.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	76	453	1923	428	225	55	97%	5.8	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.65	4.29	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	848	189	99	24	97%	5.8	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.65	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		67	65	307	1336	284	152	27	97%	4.6	21.2%	11.4%	9.9%	2.0%	3.90	3.86	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	871	185	99	18	97%	4.6	21.2%	11.4%	9.9%	2.0%	3.90	3.86	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 11 IPFIP 3.92 → 3.91 (−0.02)K% 19.5% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.51%	—	×0.860	16.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.51%	—	×0.900	17.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 92 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.09 (+0.27)K% 22.5% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.55%	—	×0.860	19.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.25%	—	×0.900	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷0.961	×1.100	2.24%

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMississippi Braves · 49 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.35 (+0.63)K% 22.4% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.43%	—	×0.810	18.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.94%	—	×1.100	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷0.906	×1.200	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 40 IPFIP 3.71 → 3.96 (+0.25)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×0.900	12.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷0.968	×1.100	1.98%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMississippi Braves · 10 IPFIP 4.23 → 5.44 (+1.21)K% 24.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.810	19.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.56%	—	×1.100	17.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.793	×1.200	3.36%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 12 IPFIP 1.32 → 2.26 (+0.94)K% 37.8% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.78%	—	×0.770	29.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.022	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 1.32 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 4 IPFIP 2.89 → 2.99 (+0.11)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×0.900	13.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.984	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hurston Waldrep (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.50	23.0%	11.5%	270	-0.06	—	—	—
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	77
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	77
Stephen Fife R 2012 · 3.87 FIP	25	SP	3.87	17.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.284	3.94	17.4%	10.4%	58	+0.07	3.11	264	77
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	76
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	76
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	76
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	75
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	75
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	74
Justin Dunn R 2021 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP	4.44	22.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.231	6.06	16.1%	3.2%	60	+1.62	3.54	607	74
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	74
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	73
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	72
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	72
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	71
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	71
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	70
Seth Keener R 2024 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	20.7%	13.6%	0.6%	.280	5.85	15.8%	2.8%	123	+2.45	3.40	187	70
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	70
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	76	22.3%	11.8%	1.10	4.61
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Jerry Johnson ('68-'77, -4 WAR*)	3.9	77	19.4%*	11.3%*	1.06*	5.08*
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Dick Kelley ('64-'71, 3 WAR*)	2.6	87	21.4%*	10.6%*	1.04*	4.26*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06