Hurston Waldrep — OGILVIE

Hurston Waldrep P Gwinnett Stripers

+0.9 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.2 · 2028

ERA3.69

FIP4.24

xFIP3.66

SIERA3.96

K%21.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%10.8%

IP130

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2028

K†5555

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p7028.5%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p520.310

FB+3.4 (21%)

SL+2.7 (12%)

SI (18%)

CU (13%)

CT-1.4 (23%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	21	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	8	8	29	123	41	16	1	—	—	—	1.53	—	—
2024	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	21	21	100	446	100	53	8	19.9%	11.4%	1.5%	4.40	3.71	+1.8
2025	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	29	28	148	637	147	71	11	21.3%	11.5%	1.9%	3.83	3.81	+2.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	ATL	12	12	65	275	64	30	6	23.4%	11.0%	2.2%	3.67	4.11	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	ATL	26	26	144	607	143	62	14	23.6%	10.1%	2.3%	3.88	4.02	+2.1
2028	26	MLB	ATL	27	27	151	637	151	63	15	23.7%	9.9%	2.3%	3.96	4.01	+2.2
2029	27	MLB	ATL	28	28	154	649	153	64	15	23.6%	9.8%	2.4%	4.01	4.03	+2.2
2030	28	MLB	ATL	28	28	153	648	152	64	16	23.5%	9.8%	2.4%	4.04	4.06	+2.2
2031	29	MLB	ATL	27	27	150	633	146	63	16	23.1%	9.9%	2.5%	4.10	4.14	+2.0
2032	30	MLB	ATL	26	26	145	614	138	61	15	22.5%	10.0%	2.5%	4.18	4.23	+1.8
2033	31	MLB	ATL	26	26	140	592	130	60	15	21.9%	10.1%	2.6%	4.27	4.33	+1.5
2034	32	MLB	ATL	24	24	135	569	121	58	15	21.3%	10.3%	2.7%	4.38	4.45	+1.3
2035	33	MLB	ATL	23	23	129	543	112	57	15	20.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.50	4.58	+1.0
2036	34	MLB	ATL	22	22	122	516	103	55	15	19.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.63	4.72	+0.8
2037	35	MLB	ATL	21	21	115	486	93	53	14	19.2%	10.9%	3.0%	4.77	4.87	+0.6
2038	36	MLB	ATL	20	20	108	455	84	51	14	18.4%	11.1%	3.1%	4.93	5.03	+0.3
2039	37	MLB	ATL	18	18	100	422	74	48	14	17.6%	11.4%	3.2%	5.10	5.21	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			58	57	278	1206	266	140	20	22.0%	11.6%	1.7%	3.79	3.63	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—			42	41	200	869	192	101	14	22.0%	11.6%	1.7%	3.79	3.63	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hurston Waldrep (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	23.4%	11.0%	2.2%	—	4.02	23.6%	13.7%	448	-0.09	—	—	—
Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	24	SW	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.8%	.312	3.22	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.42	1.21	538	91
Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	24	SW	3.78	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.47	2.87	223	89
Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	24	SW	3.73	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	104	89
Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	24	SW	3.65	22.4%	11.2%	1.8%	.282	4.58	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.57	304	88
Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	26	SW	3.85	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.07	3.23	161	87
Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	24	SW	3.54	22.7%	11.5%	1.6%	.315	4.14	20.3%	9.8%	50	+0.60	2.36	229	86
Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	24	SW	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.42	155	86
Collin Baumgartner R 2027 · 2.99 FIP	25	SW	2.99	26.1%	11.5%	1.2%	.280	3.76	23.9%	11.6%	61	+0.77	2.99	117	86
Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	24	SW	3.86	20.6%	10.4%	2.2%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.03	3.40	134	86
Trevor Holloway R 2026 · 3.44 FIP	24	SW	3.44	21.9%	11.7%	1.3%	.266	4.55	17.9%	6.1%	43	+1.11	3.44	112	86
Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	25	SW	3.73	23.7%	10.1%	2.5%	.284	3.72	20.3%	12.4%	167	-0.01	3.05	290	86
Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	24	SW	3.74	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.00	22.6%	8.2%	94	+0.26	3.60	154	86
Peter Tago R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	24	SW	3.66	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.22	3.26	207	86
Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	24	SW	4.00	22.4%	13.6%	2.0%	.331	4.03	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.03	3.31	213	86
Zack Jones R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	24	SW	3.56	23.9%	14.0%	1.3%	.280	3.63	28.1%	10.9%	57	+0.07	2.56	109	85
Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 3.19 FIP	24	SW	3.19	27.1%	14.0%	1.1%	.299	3.77	24.8%	10.5%	195	+0.58	3.19	246	85
Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	85
Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 3.12 FIP	24	SW	3.12	22.8%	11.7%	0.8%	.276	5.17	16.7%	4.0%	75	+2.05	3.12	141	85
Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	85
Brandon Peterson R 2026 · 3.27 FIP	24	SW	3.27	24.0%	13.3%	0.9%	.271	5.13	20.5%	3.1%	20	+1.86	2.64	141	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.599 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$17M	+$17M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$19M	+$18M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+2.2	$19M	+$13M
2030	Arb-2	$11M	+2.2	$20M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$16M	+2.0	$19M	+$2M
Totals		$36M		$97M	+$61M