Hurston Waldrep
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 2.2 · 2028
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 97
ERA4.13
FIP4.22
K%22.1%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%9.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p1016.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.359
FB+3.4 (21%)
SL+2.7 (12%)
SI (18%)
CU (13%)
CT-1.4 (23%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 8 | 29 | 123 | 41 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 33.3% | 13.0% | 20.3% | 0.8% | 1.53 | 2.38 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 8 | 29 | 123 | 41 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 33.3% | 13.0% | 20.3% | 0.8% | 1.53 | 2.38 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 21 | 21 | 100 | 446 | 100 | 53 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 4.40 | 3.78 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 21 | 21 | 100 | 446 | 100 | 53 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 4.40 | 3.73 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 148 | 637 | 147 | 71 | 11 | 97% | 5.1 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 3.83 | 3.84 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 148 | 637 | 147 | 71 | 11 | 97% | 5.1 | 23.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 1.7% | 3.83 | 3.52 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 8 | 7 | 26 | 120 | 22 | 21 | 4 | 88% | 3.2 | 16.1% | 17.9% | -1.8% | 5.4% | 5.54 | 6.95 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 60 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 61 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 91 | 394 | 82 | 56 | 11 | — | — | 20.9% | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 5.00 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 75 | 319 | 82 | 56 | 11 | — | — | 25.9% | 17.5% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 5.45 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 30 | 30 | 177 | 748 | 173 | 88 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.43 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 30 | 30 | 177 | 748 | 176 | 85 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 29 | 174 | 737 | 173 | 83 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 29 | 174 | 737 | 172 | 83 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 28 | 167 | 703 | 160 | 81 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.64 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 157 | 661 | 146 | 78 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.84 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 131 | 75 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.07 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 29 | 168 | 709 | 164 | 83 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.43 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 167 | 81 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 28 | 166 | 701 | 164 | 79 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 28 | 166 | 701 | 163 | 79 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 158 | 667 | 152 | 77 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.64 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 139 | 74 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.84 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 125 | 72 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 218 | 216 | 1253 | 5298 | 1201 | 619 | 150 | 99% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.22 | +17.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 846 | 192 | 99 | 24 | 99% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 64 | 304 | 1326 | 285 | 162 | 27 | 97% | 4.6 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 3.94 | 3.97 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 873 | 188 | 106 | 18 | 97% | 4.6 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 3.94 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hurston Waldrep (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 2.2% | — | 4.40 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 529 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 85 |
| Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.66 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 1.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 158 | 83 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 82 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 81 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 81 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 80 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .269 | 3.64 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 216 | +0.07 | 2.28 | 473 | 80 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 79 |
| Jaron DeBerry R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.03 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 3.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 175 | 79 |
| Burch Smith R 2029 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 78 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 78 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2029 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 78 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 78 |
| Shane Davis R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.08 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 129 | 77 |
| Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 253 | 77 |
| Tristan Beck R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.52 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .375 | 4.07 | 20.2% | 11.7% | 141 | +0.55 | 3.52 | 473 | 77 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 76 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 76 |
| Josh Roberson R 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.61 | 17.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .298 | 5.39 | 21.7% | 5.5% | 60 | +1.78 | 3.17 | 229 | 76 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 161 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 1.08 | 4.51 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |