Justin Dunn — OGILVIE

Justin Dunn P Salt Lake Bees

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.83

FIP5.83

K%17.8%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p2922.4%

p1015.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.431

SL-1.0

CH-3.4

FB-5.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	20	16	95	433	75	46	5	80%	4.8	13.3%	12.2%	1.1%	1.6%	5.00	4.39	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	St. Lucie Mets	20	16	95	433	75	46	5	80%	4.8	17.3%	10.6%	6.7%	1.2%	5.00	3.66	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	135	576	156	51	9	100%	5.6	21.6%	9.9%	11.7%	1.8%	3.59	3.54	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	135	576	156	51	9	100%	5.6	27.1%	8.9%	18.2%	1.6%	3.59	2.79	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	138	583	163	48	13	100%	4.8	23.1%	7.8%	15.4%	3.6%	3.51	4.10	+1.3
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	138	583	163	48	13	100%	4.8	28.0%	8.2%	19.7%	2.2%	3.51	3.01	+3.3
2020	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	10	10	46	198	38	30	10	100%	4.6	19.2%	15.2%	4.0%	5.2%	4.34	6.24	-0.7
2020	24	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	10	10	46	198	38	30	10	100%	4.6	19.2%	15.2%	4.0%	5.1%	4.34	6.25	-0.7
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	50	219	49	30	6	92%	4.2	22.5%	13.3%	9.2%	2.8%	3.75	4.44	+0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	50	219	49	30	6	92%	4.2	22.4%	13.7%	8.7%	2.7%	3.75	4.49	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	62	287	49	36	15	100%	3.9	16.1%	12.9%	3.2%	4.9%	6.10	6.06	-0.8
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	62	287	49	36	15	100%	3.9	17.1%	12.5%	4.5%	5.2%	6.10	6.41	-1.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	3	15	5	2	1	67%	1.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	6.7%	5.40	5.63	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	3	15	5	2	1	67%	1.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	6.7%	5.40	5.63	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	3	15	5	2	1	67%	1.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	6.7%	5.40	5.80	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	54	281	57	45	9	74%	2.8	18.2%	14.7%	3.5%	3.5%	9.67	5.34	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	54	281	57	45	9	74%	2.8	18.2%	14.7%	3.5%	3.5%	9.67	5.34	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	14	54	281	57	45	9	74%	2.8	20.3%	16.0%	4.3%	3.2%	9.67	5.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	32	134	584	113	85	27	100%	4.2	19.3%	14.6%	4.8%	4.6%	4.44	5.94	-1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	27	2	40	193	39	29	5	7%	1.5	16.8%	13.5%	3.2%	2.8%	6.13	4.96	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	27	2	40	193	39	29	5	7%	1.5	16.8%	13.5%	3.2%	2.8%	6.13	4.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	LAA	27	2	40	193	39	29	5	7%	1.5	20.2%	15.0%	5.2%	2.6%	6.13	4.72	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	LAA	5	0	5	22	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.8%	15.6%	2.2%	3.4%	5.83	5.83	-0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	45	215	43	32	6	—	—	20.0%	15.1%	4.9%	2.7%	6.09	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	54	227	39	36	8	100%	6.0	17.0%	15.9%	1.1%	3.7%	5.97	6.07	-0.7
2028	32	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	50	210	34	34	8	100%	6.2	16.2%	16.3%	-0.1%	3.9%	6.18	6.32	-0.8
2027	31	MLB CTX	LAA	3	3	20	84	14	13	3	100%	6.7	17.0%	15.9%	1.1%	3.7%	5.97	6.07	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	LAA	4	4	27	114	18	19	4	100%	6.8	16.2%	16.3%	-0.1%	3.9%	6.18	6.32	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	181	786	146	118	35	100%	4.5	18.6%	15.0%	3.7%	4.4%	4.88	5.84	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	44	200	866	161	130	39	99%	4.5	18.6%	15.0%	3.7%	4.4%	4.88	5.84	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		160	124	624	2785	539	321	85	78%	3.9	19.4%	11.5%	7.8%	3.1%	4.80	4.60	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	40	200	893	173	103	27	78%	3.9	19.4%	11.5%	7.8%	3.1%	4.80	4.60	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Dunn (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.83	17.8%	15.6%	3.4%	—	6.19	16.6%	0.5%	104	+0.36	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	74
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	69
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	68
Kris Medlen R 2016 · 6.39 FIP	30	SP-	6.39	16.0%	13.0%	5.5%	.321	4.75	17.5%	10.5%	129	-1.64	4.59	261	68
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	66
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	66
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	65
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	676	64
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	64
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	64
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	221	63
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	63
Sean O'Sullivan R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	29	SP-	5.76	11.9%	11.7%	4.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	290	63
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	63
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	63
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	62
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	61
Bryan Brickhouse R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP-	4.78	18.8%	11.7%	3.2%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	214	61
Eddie Butler R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	30	SW	5.47	13.4%	9.6%	4.2%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	538	61
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	17.0%	15.9%	1.41	5.98
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48