Justin Dunn
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 58 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154145vR 136
ERA6.01
FIP6.03
K%18.6%
BB%17.7%
K-BB%0.9%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p2922.4%
K%
p1015.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.431
SL-1.0
CH-3.4
FB-5.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | 20 | 16 | 95 | 433 | 75 | 46 | 5 | 80% | 4.8 | 13.3% | 12.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 5.00 | 4.48 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | 20 | 16 | 95 | 433 | 75 | 46 | 5 | 80% | 4.8 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 5.00 | 3.66 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 135 | 576 | 156 | 51 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 3.59 | 3.51 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 135 | 576 | 156 | 51 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 27.1% | 8.9% | 18.2% | 1.6% | 3.59 | 2.79 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 138 | 583 | 163 | 48 | 13 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.1% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 5.0% | 3.51 | 4.85 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 138 | 583 | 163 | 48 | 13 | 100% | 4.8 | 28.0% | 8.2% | 19.7% | 2.2% | 3.51 | 3.01 | +3.9 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 10 | 10 | 46 | 198 | 38 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.2% | 15.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.34 | 6.32 | -0.9 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 10 | 10 | 46 | 198 | 38 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.2% | 15.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.34 | 6.25 | -0.9 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 50 | 219 | 49 | 30 | 6 | 92% | 4.2 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 3.75 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 50 | 219 | 49 | 30 | 6 | 92% | 4.2 | 22.4% | 13.7% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 3.75 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 62 | 287 | 49 | 36 | 15 | 100% | 3.9 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.10 | 5.99 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 62 | 287 | 49 | 36 | 15 | 100% | 3.9 | 17.1% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.10 | 6.41 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 1.1 | 33.3% | 13.3% | 20.0% | 6.7% | 5.40 | 5.63 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 1.1 | 33.3% | 13.3% | 20.0% | 6.7% | 5.40 | 5.80 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 54 | 281 | 57 | 45 | 9 | 74% | 2.8 | 19.3% | 17.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 9.67 | 5.56 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 54 | 281 | 57 | 45 | 9 | 74% | 2.8 | 20.3% | 16.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 9.67 | 5.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 22 | 2 | 34 | 163 | 29 | 24 | 4 | 9% | 1.5 | 15.7% | 15.5% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 5.29 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | LAA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 45 | 43 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 17.7% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 6.01 | 6.03 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | LAA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 17.7% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 6.01 | 6.03 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 92 | 407 | 74 | 67 | 12 | — | — | 18.2% | 16.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.74 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 6 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 18.6% | 17.7% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 6.01 | 5.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 54 | 227 | 40 | 41 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 18.0% | -0.2% | 3.6% | 6.16 | 6.26 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 36 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.0% | 18.4% | -1.4% | 3.9% | 6.38 | 6.52 | -1.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 46 | 193 | 31 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.2% | 18.9% | -2.7% | 4.2% | 6.63 | 6.80 | -1.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 17.8% | 18.0% | -0.2% | 3.6% | 6.16 | 6.26 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 19 | 21 | 4 | 100% | 6.8 | 17.0% | 18.4% | -1.4% | 3.9% | 6.38 | 6.52 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 21 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.2% | 18.9% | -2.7% | 4.2% | 6.63 | 6.80 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 45 | 218 | 938 | 173 | 150 | 41 | 88% | 4.3 | 18.5% | 16.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.20 | 5.96 | -1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 862 | 159 | 138 | 38 | 89% | 4.3 | 18.5% | 16.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.20 | 5.96 | -1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 155 | 124 | 618 | 2755 | 535 | 327 | 93 | 80% | 4.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 40 | 200 | 891 | 173 | 106 | 30 | 80% | 4.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Dunn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.03 | 18.6% | 17.7% | 3.4% | — | 6.51 | 17.0% | -1.4% | 149 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.77 | 18.6% | 19.3% | 3.3% | .238 | 5.06 | 18.9% | 3.2% | 33 | -0.71 | 4.11 | 563 | 70 |
| Mark Appel R 2026 · 5.85 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.85 | 15.6% | 15.6% | 3.8% | .260 | 4.17 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 40 | -1.68 | 4.17 | 363 | 67 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 30 | SP- | 6.27 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 5.2% | .321 | 4.78 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 129 | -1.49 | 4.66 | 261 | 67 |
| Tyson Ross R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.42 | 14.1% | 15.0% | 2.9% | .303 | 4.43 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 185 | -0.99 | 2.82 | 449 | 66 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 65 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 64 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 62 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 290 | 61 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.94 | 19.9% | 25.6% | 2.3% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 223 | 60 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 221 | 60 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 60 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 59 |
| David Fletcher R 2026 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 59 |
| Chris Heston R 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 59 |
| Bryan Brickhouse R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.91 | 18.8% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 214 | 59 |
| Deck McGuire R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 59 |
| Mat Latos R 2025 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 58 |
| Anthony DeSclafani R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.35 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .309 | 3.93 | 21.0% | 15.4% | 286 | -1.42 | 3.41 | 981 | 58 |
| Wil Crowe R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.11 | 13.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 518 | 57 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2025 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 17.5% | 18.2% | 1.46 | 6.27 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |