Seth Keener
P
Winston-Salem Dash
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 155145vR 136
ERA6.06
FIP6.06
K%15.1%
BB%15.2%
K-BB%-0.1%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 71% | 1.8 | 26.9% | 7.7% | 19.2% | 1.9% | 4.38 | 2.86 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 71% | 1.8 | 26.9% | 7.7% | 19.2% | 1.9% | 4.38 | 2.86 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 69 | 294 | 82 | 35 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 7.1% | 0.8% | 4.02 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 69 | 294 | 82 | 35 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 27.9% | 11.9% | 16.0% | 0.3% | 4.02 | 2.44 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 15 | 77 | 373 | 75 | 45 | 14 | 60% | 3.1 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 8.06 | 6.96 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 15 | 77 | 373 | 75 | 45 | 14 | 60% | 3.1 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 8.06 | 5.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 24 | 1 | 33 | 151 | 31 | 17 | 3 | 4% | 1.4 | 15.8% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 6.55 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 43 | 43 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 15.2% | -0.1% | 3.5% | 6.06 | 6.06 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.1% | 15.2% | -0.1% | 3.5% | 6.06 | 6.06 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 100 | 435 | 74 | 60 | 13 | — | — | 17.0% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 6.22 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.1% | 15.2% | -0.1% | 3.5% | 6.06 | 5.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 48 | 40 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.78 | 5.71 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 50 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 13.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.61 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 50 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 13.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.54 | 5.54 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 20 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.78 | 5.71 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 33 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 13.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.61 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 39 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 13.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.54 | 5.54 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 534 | 93 | 72 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 13.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.62 | 5.21 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 114 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 13.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.62 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 37 | 192 | 870 | 155 | 116 | 30 | 51% | 2.7 | 17.9% | 13.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 6.10 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 39 | 200 | 908 | 162 | 121 | 31 | 51% | 2.7 | 17.9% | 13.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 6.10 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Keener (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.06 | 15.1% | 15.2% | 3.5% | — | 5.61 | 17.3% | 3.9% | 203 | -0.45 | — | — | — |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.13 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 7.73 | 17.8% | 2.4% | 17 | +2.60 | 4.17 | 152 | 85 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 85 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 81 |
| Paul Clemens R 2029 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 80 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 79 |
| Braxton Hyde R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.67 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 198 | 79 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 79 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 78 |
| Dylan Spacke R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.23 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 3.2% | .297 | 4.74 | 13.6% | 0.2% | 52 | -0.49 | 2.08 | 205 | 78 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 78 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 78 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 78 |
| Ted Stuka R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 77 |
| Josh Hansell R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.18 | 17.6% | 16.1% | 2.8% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 169 | 77 |
| Danny Cody R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.00 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 5.0% | .369 | 6.37 | 11.4% | -6.9% | 37 | +0.37 | 6.00 | 106 | 76 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.52 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .257 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 3.7% | 127 | -0.50 | 4.07 | 378 | 76 |
| Heath Slatton R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 17.9% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 120 | 75 |
| Blake Hickman R 2026 · 6.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.54 | 12.9% | 17.8% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 156 | 75 |
| Yeudy Garcia R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.09 | 16.0% | 14.9% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.58 | 18.4% | 5.4% | 115 | -0.51 | 3.37 | 439 | 75 |
| Ramsey David R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 16.8% | 13.9% | 1.33 | 5.75 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |