Seth Keener

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	16	16	69	4.02	2.44	27.9%	11.9%	—	K 20.7% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.40
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	15	77	8.06	5.27	20.1%	12.1%	—	K 15.2% · BB 14.0% · FIP 6.54
2026	24	MIX2 levels	35	1	47	6.36	4.04	21.4%	11.2%	—	K 16.9% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	—	—	0	5.74	5.74	15.2%	14.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCWS	20	0	21	5.57	5.55	16.6%	13.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	26	0	27	5.49	5.49	17.1%	13.4%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCameron Foster (age 25) · Cooper Adams (age 24) · Colby Morris (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.74

FIP5.74

K%15.2%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%1.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	12	52	14	4	1	71%	1.8	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	1.9%	4.38	2.86	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	5	12	52	14	4	1	71%	1.8	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	1.9%	4.38	2.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	69	294	82	35	1	100%	4.3	20.7%	13.6%	7.1%	0.6%	4.02	3.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	69	294	82	35	1	100%	4.3	20.7%	13.6%	7.1%	0.6%	4.02	3.40	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	69	294	82	35	1	100%	4.3	27.9%	11.9%	16.0%	0.3%	4.02	2.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	77	373	75	45	14	60%	3.1	15.2%	14.0%	1.1%	5.4%	8.06	6.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	77	373	75	45	14	60%	3.1	15.2%	14.0%	1.1%	5.4%	8.06	6.54	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	77	373	75	45	14	60%	3.1	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	3.8%	8.06	5.27	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	47	224	48	25	5	3%	1.3	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.9%	6.36	4.70	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	47	224	48	25	5	3%	1.3	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.9%	6.36	4.70	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	47	224	48	25	5	3%	1.3	21.4%	11.2%	10.3%	2.2%	6.36	4.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	3.2%	5.74	5.74	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	47	0	49	209	35	28	7	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.6%	2.9%	3.2%	5.57	5.55	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	40	0	42	178	30	24	6	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.4%	3.7%	3.2%	5.49	5.49	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	37	0	39	163	28	22	5	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.3%	3.9%	3.3%	5.49	5.52	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	34	0	36	151	26	20	5	0%	1.1	17.2%	13.4%	3.7%	3.4%	5.56	5.62	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	20	0	21	89	15	12	3	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.6%	2.9%	3.2%	5.57	5.55	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	26	0	27	114	19	15	4	0%	1.0	17.1%	13.4%	3.7%	3.2%	5.49	5.49	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	28	0	29	122	21	16	4	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.3%	3.9%	3.3%	5.49	5.52	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	28	0	29	122	21	16	4	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.4%	3.7%	3.4%	5.56	5.62	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	0	106	448	76	60	15	0%	1.0	17.1%	13.4%	3.6%	3.3%	5.53	5.17	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	113	28	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.4%	3.6%	3.3%	5.53	5.17	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		83	37	205	943	169	122	29	45%	2.5	18.0%	12.9%	5.0%	3.1%	6.09	4.92	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	36	200	919	165	119	29	45%	2.5	18.0%	12.9%	5.0%	3.1%	6.09	4.92	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 46 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.70 (+0.93)K% 22.0% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.96%	—	×0.770	16.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.81%	—	×1.150	11.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.92%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 44 IPFIP 4.41 → 5.97 (+1.57)K% 20.1% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.10%	—	×0.740	14.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×1.180	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷0.853	×1.300	4.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 4.41 → 5.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 33 IPFIP 5.62 → 7.15 (+1.53)K% 20.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.11%	—	×0.770	15.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.97%	—	×1.150	16.06%
HR / BF /BF	4.47%	÷0.923	×1.250	6.05%

Result: FIP 5.62 → 7.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 64 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.40 (+1.00)K% 28.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.99%	—	×0.740	20.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.57%	—	×1.180	13.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.37%	÷0.820	×1.300	0.59%

Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 5 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.59 (+0.82)K% 26.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.770	20.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.150	17.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.817	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 6 IPFIP 3.80 → 5.40 (+1.60)K% 23.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.740	17.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.180	7.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷0.861	×1.300	5.04%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL White Sox · 6 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.71 (+1.15)K% 31.8% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.680	21.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷2.194	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 339).

Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Keener (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.74	15.2%	14.2%	3.2%	—	5.52	16.9%	3.5%	130	-0.22	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	82
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	82
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	80
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	80
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	79
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	79
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	78
Dillon McNamara R 2017 · 5.01 FIP	25	SW	5.01	13.3%	11.1%	3.0%	.229	3.00	21.2%	12.3%	69	-2.01	1.73	244	78
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	77
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	76
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	76
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	76
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	76
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	76
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	75
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	45	16.5%	13.6%	1.26	5.58
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*