Seth Keener — OGILVIE

Seth Keener P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA5.99

FIP5.99

K%15.1%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%-0.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	12	52	14	4	1	71%	1.8	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	1.9%	4.38	2.86	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	12	52	14	4	1	71%	1.8	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	1.9%	4.38	2.86	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	5	12	52	14	4	1	71%	1.8	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	1.9%	4.38	2.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	69	294	82	35	1	100%	4.3	20.7%	13.6%	7.1%	0.6%	4.02	3.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	69	294	82	35	1	100%	4.3	20.7%	13.6%	7.1%	0.6%	4.02	3.40	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	69	294	82	35	1	100%	4.3	27.9%	11.9%	16.0%	0.3%	4.02	2.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	77	373	75	45	14	60%	3.1	15.2%	14.0%	1.1%	5.4%	8.06	6.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	77	373	75	45	14	60%	3.1	15.2%	14.0%	1.1%	5.4%	8.06	6.54	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	77	373	75	45	14	60%	3.1	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	3.8%	8.06	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	35	1	47	224	48	25	5	3%	1.3	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.9%	6.36	4.70	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	35	1	47	224	48	25	5	3%	1.3	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.9%	6.36	4.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CWS	34	1	46	214	47	21	5	3%	1.4	22.0%	9.8%	12.1%	2.3%	6.46	3.77	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CWS	1	0	1	10	1	4	0	0%	0.7	10.0%	40.0%	-30.0%	0.0%	0.00	7.32	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	26	4	4	1	0%	1.0	15.1%	15.4%	-0.3%	3.4%	5.99	5.99	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	53	250	52	29	6	—	—	20.8%	11.6%	9.2%	2.3%	6.32	4.85	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	67	0	70	296	49	41	10	0%	1.0	16.7%	13.9%	2.8%	3.3%	5.72	5.64	-0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	67	0	70	296	52	40	10	0%	1.0	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	3.3%	5.56	5.51	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	66	0	69	292	52	39	10	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.4%	4.4%	3.3%	5.49	5.49	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	64	0	67	283	50	38	10	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.4%	4.4%	3.4%	5.51	5.54	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	61	0	64	270	48	37	10	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.7%	3.9%	3.6%	5.61	5.68	-0.8
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	29	0	30	127	21	18	4	0%	1.0	16.7%	13.9%	2.8%	3.3%	5.72	5.64	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	45	0	47	198	35	27	7	0%	1.0	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	3.3%	5.56	5.51	-0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	50	0	53	224	40	30	7	0%	1.1	17.8%	13.4%	4.4%	3.3%	5.49	5.49	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	53	0	56	236	42	32	8	0%	1.1	17.8%	13.4%	4.4%	3.4%	5.51	5.54	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	53	0	56	236	42	32	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.7%	3.9%	3.6%	5.61	5.68	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		231	0	243	1025	180	139	35	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.5%	4.0%	3.4%	5.56	5.19	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	115	29	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.5%	4.0%	3.4%	5.56	5.19	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		83	37	205	943	169	122	29	45%	2.5	18.0%	12.9%	5.0%	3.1%	6.09	4.92	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	36	200	919	165	119	29	45%	2.5	18.0%	12.9%	5.0%	3.1%	6.09	4.92	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Keener (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.99	15.1%	15.4%	3.4%	—	5.55	17.3%	3.8%	210	-0.44	—	—	—
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	85
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	84
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	83
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	82
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	79
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	79
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	78
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	78
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	78
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	77
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	77
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	77
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	77
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	77
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	77
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	76
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	76
Robbie Peto R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	24	SU	5.39	15.6%	19.4%	2.1%	.242	5.75	15.3%	1.9%	80	+0.36	5.39	232	75
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	75
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	68	17.1%	13.9%	1.30	5.65
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78