Corey Avant
P
Midland RockHounds
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.91
FIP4.91
K%18.5%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%5.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 25.0% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 5.00 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 25.0% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 5.35 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 6 | 71 | 355 | 80 | 47 | 7 | 18% | 2.1 | 17.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 7.39 | 4.65 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 6 | 71 | 355 | 80 | 47 | 7 | 18% | 2.1 | 22.5% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 2.0% | 7.39 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 22 | 111 | 474 | 104 | 50 | 6 | 71% | 3.6 | 17.3% | 12.3% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 4.23 | 3.74 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 22 | 111 | 474 | 104 | 50 | 6 | 71% | 3.6 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 1.3% | 4.23 | 3.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 17 | 17 | 81 | 360 | 96 | 45 | 12 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 5.36 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 37 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.5% | 13.5% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 13.5% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 145 | 634 | 147 | 82 | 18 | — | — | 23.2% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 5.16 | 5.08 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.5% | 13.5% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 4.88 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 132 | 559 | 111 | 68 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 4.73 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 132 | 559 | 115 | 66 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 4.62 | 4.56 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 130 | 550 | 114 | 64 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.59 | 4.58 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 126 | 534 | 110 | 62 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 20 | 121 | 510 | 104 | 61 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 19 | 19 | 114 | 479 | 96 | 59 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.97 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 18 | 106 | 447 | 88 | 56 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 12.6% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 5.05 | 5.17 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 98 | 413 | 79 | 54 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.26 | 5.40 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 77 | 44 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 4.59 | 4.53 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 88 | 50 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.56 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 93 | 53 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 91 | 53 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 86 | 53 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 80 | 51 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 12.6% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.01 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 74 | 50 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.22 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 125 | 125 | 751 | 3171 | 639 | 384 | 87 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.44 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 102 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 85 | 45 | 266 | 1209 | 224 | 167 | 26 | 53% | 3.1 | 18.5% | 13.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 5.45 | 4.47 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 34 | 200 | 909 | 168 | 126 | 20 | 53% | 3.1 | 18.5% | 13.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 5.45 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Corey Avant (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 18.5% | 13.5% | 2.3% | — | 4.60 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 395 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 86 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 83 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.3% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .302 | 4.58 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 124 | +0.45 | 4.13 | 240 | 82 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 81 |
| Jackson Finley R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .361 | 3.85 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 49 | -0.19 | 3.85 | 132 | 80 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 80 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.83 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 168 | +0.43 | 3.57 | 389 | 80 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 79 |
| Bubba Derby R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 16.3% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .322 | 5.57 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 163 | +1.78 | 3.74 | 550 | 79 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 15.2% | 15.2% | 1.1% | .278 | 4.18 | 16.7% | 2.4% | 83 | -0.17 | 3.46 | 321 | 79 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .248 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 123 | +1.30 | 4.30 | 232 | 79 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 17.0% | 14.3% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.05 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 99 | -0.30 | 3.59 | 327 | 79 |
| Drew Steckenrider R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.10 | 14.2% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .318 | 3.05 | 29.7% | 20.4% | 175 | -1.05 | 2.65 | 392 | 79 |
| Zach Lewis R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.04 | 14.9% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 266 | 78 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 78 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 78 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 78 |
| Reid Johnston R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .256 | 5.86 | 17.2% | 2.4% | 31 | +0.96 | 3.72 | 234 | 78 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 78 |
| Alex Lange R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.2% | 13.0% | 1.9% | .328 | 3.43 | 27.3% | 15.4% | 121 | -0.97 | 3.05 | 489 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 121 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 1.05 | 4.80 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Dakota Hudson ('24) | 6 | 92 | 15.0% | 11.1% | 0.91 | 4.25 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |