Corey Avant

P Midland RockHounds

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	34	6	71	7.39	4.12	22.5%	13.2%	—	K 17.1% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.76
2025	23	MIX2 levels	31	22	111	4.23	3.28	21.9%	10.5%	—	K 17.3% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.69
2026	24	AAOAK	28	25	115	5.70	4.45	27.4%	13.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 14.5% · FIP 5.37
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	1	1	3	5.25	5.25	21.5%	14.6%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	26	MLBOAK	6	6	34	5.14	5.13	21.8%	13.9%	0.1
2029PROJ49% MLB	27	MLBOAK	8	8	46	5.09	5.10	21.8%	13.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 84%

CompsPaxton Schultz (age 25) · Nolan DeVos (age 22) · Deylen Miley (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%21.5%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP135

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	3	0	4	20	3	5	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	6.75	5.00	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	3	0	4	20	3	5	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	6.75	5.35	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	18%	2.1	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	2.2%	7.39	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	18%	2.1	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	2.2%	7.39	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	18%	2.1	22.5%	13.2%	9.3%	2.0%	7.39	4.12	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	71%	3.6	17.3%	12.3%	5.0%	0.9%	4.23	3.69	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	71%	3.6	17.3%	12.3%	5.0%	0.9%	4.23	3.69	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	71%	3.6	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	1.3%	4.23	3.28	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	25	115	515	141	68	18	89%	4.1	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	4.2%	5.70	5.37	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	25	115	515	141	68	18	89%	4.1	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	4.2%	5.70	5.37	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	28	25	115	515	141	68	18	89%	4.1	27.4%	13.2%	14.2%	3.5%	5.70	4.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	21.5%	14.6%	6.9%	3.2%	5.25	5.25	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	106	450	98	62	14	100%	5.9	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	3.1%	5.14	5.13	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	94	399	87	54	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	3.2%	5.09	5.10	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	87	369	80	49	12	100%	5.8	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.3%	5.10	5.14	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	81	340	73	46	12	100%	6.2	21.4%	13.4%	8.0%	3.4%	5.18	5.25	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	73	308	65	42	11	100%	6.1	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	3.6%	5.33	5.43	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	34	144	31	20	5	100%	5.7	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	3.1%	5.14	5.13	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	46	194	42	26	6	100%	5.8	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	3.2%	5.09	5.10	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	54	228	49	30	7	100%	6.0	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.3%	5.10	5.14	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	56	236	51	32	8	100%	6.2	21.4%	13.4%	8.0%	3.4%	5.18	5.25	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	55	232	49	32	8	100%	6.1	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	3.6%	5.33	5.43	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	244	1030	222	140	35	100%	6.0	21.5%	13.6%	8.0%	3.4%	5.17	4.84	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	115	29	100%	6.0	21.5%	13.6%	8.0%	3.4%	5.17	4.84	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		96	53	301	1364	260	191	34	55%	3.1	19.0%	14.0%	5.1%	2.5%	5.57	4.62	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	35	200	907	173	127	22	55%	3.1	19.0%	14.0%	5.1%	2.5%	5.57	4.62	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 115 IPFIP 4.38 → 5.37 (+0.99)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.810	22.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.20%	—	×1.100	14.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.50%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.38 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 106 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.69 (+0.77)K% 22.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.44%	—	×0.770	17.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.67%	—	×1.150	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.67%	÷0.921	×1.250	0.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 5 IPFIP 9.96 → 11.30 (+1.34)K% 12.5% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.810	10.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	12.50%	÷1.043	×1.200	14.39%

Result: FIP 9.96 → 11.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 57 IPFIP 4.10 → 5.06 (+0.96)K% 23.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.29%	—	×0.740	17.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.01%	—	×1.180	15.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.164	×1.300	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 4.10 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 14 IPFIP 3.30 → 3.35 (+0.04)K% 19.0% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.860	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.001	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Athletics · 4 IPFIP 5.00 → 6.20 (+1.20)K% 15.0% → 10.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.680	10.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.250	31.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.989	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 5.00 → 6.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corey Avant (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.12	21.8%	8.2%	288	-0.13	—	—	—
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	82
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	79
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	78
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	77
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	76
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	75
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	75
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	75
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	75
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	74
Kyle Dowdy R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	18.7%	10.0%	3.1%	.344	4.88	18.4%	4.5%	125	+0.37	2.98	606	74
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	74
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	74
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	74
Bryce Jarvis R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SP-	4.14	19.4%	10.3%	2.5%	.281	5.01	17.0%	6.5%	227	+0.87	4.14	536	74
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	74
Ryan Atkinson R 2018 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP-	5.08	21.1%	13.5%	3.7%	.303	4.14	21.2%	7.3%	54	-0.94	4.14	338	74
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	74
Cam Sanders R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	22.2%	14.8%	3.1%	.232	4.30	25.8%	9.7%	170	-0.53	3.22	519	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	96	21.6%	13.8%	1.27	5.18
Vic Albury ('73-'76, 0 WAR*)	1.9	93	18.1%*	13.2%*	1.31*	4.60*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41