Corey Avant — OGILVIE

Corey Avant P Midland RockHounds

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION115 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%18.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—40

CMD4045

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	3	0	4	20	3	5	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	6.75	5.00	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	3	0	4	20	3	5	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	6.75	5.00	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	3	0	4	20	3	5	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	6.75	5.35	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	18%	2.1	17.0%	14.9%	2.1%	2.2%	7.39	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	18%	2.1	17.0%	14.9%	2.1%	2.2%	7.39	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	18%	2.1	22.5%	13.2%	9.3%	2.0%	7.39	4.12	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	71%	3.6	17.3%	12.3%	5.0%	0.9%	4.23	3.69	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	71%	3.6	17.3%	12.3%	5.0%	0.9%	4.23	3.69	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	71%	3.6	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	1.3%	4.23	3.28	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	25	115	515	141	68	18	89%	4.1	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	4.2%	5.70	5.37	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	25	115	515	141	68	18	89%	4.1	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	4.2%	5.70	5.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	OAK	28	25	115	515	141	68	18	89%	4.1	27.4%	13.2%	14.2%	3.5%	5.70	4.38	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	OAK	2	2	11	46	9	6	1	100%	5.5	18.4%	13.7%	4.7%	2.3%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	126	561	150	74	19	—	—	26.6%	13.2%	13.4%	3.4%	5.63	5.33	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	23	23	132	559	111	69	13	100%	5.8	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	2.4%	4.75	4.67	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	132	559	115	66	14	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.4%	4.64	4.58	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	130	550	114	65	14	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.8%	8.9%	2.5%	4.61	4.60	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	126	534	110	63	14	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	2.6%	4.65	4.68	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	121	510	104	61	14	100%	6.0	20.3%	12.0%	8.3%	2.8%	4.75	4.81	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	114	479	96	59	14	100%	6.0	20.0%	12.3%	7.6%	3.0%	4.89	4.99	-0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	106	447	87	57	14	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.7%	6.9%	3.2%	5.07	5.19	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	58	245	49	30	6	100%	5.8	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	2.3%	4.72	4.64	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	88	372	77	44	9	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.4%	4.61	4.55	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	101	426	88	50	10	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.8%	8.9%	2.4%	4.58	4.57	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	107	452	93	53	12	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	2.6%	4.61	4.64	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	106	448	91	54	12	100%	5.9	20.3%	12.0%	8.3%	2.7%	4.71	4.77	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	102	431	86	53	12	100%	6.0	20.0%	12.3%	7.6%	2.9%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	97	410	80	52	13	100%	6.1	19.6%	12.7%	6.9%	3.1%	5.03	5.15	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	110	659	2783	563	337	74	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	2.7%	4.73	4.38	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	102	22	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	2.7%	4.73	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		96	53	301	1364	259	191	34	55%	3.1	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	2.5%	5.57	4.62	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	35	200	907	173	127	22	55%	3.1	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	2.5%	5.57	4.62	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corey Avant (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	18.4%	13.7%	2.3%	—	4.62	20.3%	8.4%	395	-0.32	—	—	—
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	85
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	83
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	83
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	82
Kyle Haynes R 2015 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	14.3%	10.3%	1.6%	.302	4.58	15.7%	5.8%	124	+0.50	4.08	240	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	81
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	80
Jeff Thompson R 2016 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	15.2%	15.2%	1.3%	.278	4.35	16.7%	2.4%	83	-0.09	3.67	321	79
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	79
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	79
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	79
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.02	21.0%	8.4%	168	+0.58	3.79	406	79
Bubba Derby R 2018 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	16.3%	9.7%	1.7%	.322	5.46	18.1%	8.2%	163	+1.57	3.68	550	79
Cole Percival R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.23	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.10	3.58	327	79
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	78
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	78
Zach Lewis R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP-	4.14	14.9%	9.4%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	266	78
Alex Lange R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	16.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.328	3.38	27.3%	15.4%	121	-1.08	3.00	508	78
Drew Steckenrider R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	24	SP-	4.04	14.2%	11.7%	1.2%	.318	3.01	29.7%	20.4%	175	-1.03	2.61	392	78
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	124	20.0%	12.3%	1.02	4.78
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36