Corey Avant — OGILVIE

Corey Avant P Midland RockHounds

+0.7 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2028

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.0%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%8.6%

IP94

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2028

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	21	ROK	ACL Athletics	3	0	4	20	3	5	0	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
2024	22	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	17.1%	15.3%	2.3%	7.39	4.84	+0.2
2025	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	17.3%	12.3%	0.9%	4.23	3.70	+2.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Midland RockHounds	3	3	12	51	21	6	0	33.4%	12.9%	0.0%	3.75	1.92	+0.4
ROS	24	MLB	OAK	17	17	94	398	79	45	9	20.0%	11.4%	2.3%	4.52	4.52	+0.8
2026 Total	24	MLB	OAK	—	—	106	449	100	51	9	22.4%	11.5%	2.1%	4.43	4.23	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	OAK	20	20	107	453	94	47	11	20.7%	10.4%	2.4%	4.42	4.37	+1.1
2028	26	MLB	OAK	21	21	114	483	102	49	12	21.0%	10.2%	2.4%	4.36	4.33	+1.3
2029	27	MLB	OAK	21	21	118	496	105	50	12	21.1%	10.1%	2.5%	4.35	4.34	+1.3
2030	28	MLB	OAK	21	21	118	497	105	50	13	21.1%	10.1%	2.5%	4.36	4.36	+1.3
2031	29	MLB	OAK	21	21	115	486	102	49	12	20.9%	10.2%	2.6%	4.39	4.41	+1.2
2032	30	MLB	OAK	20	20	112	471	98	48	12	20.7%	10.3%	2.6%	4.44	4.47	+1.1
2033	31	MLB	OAK	20	20	108	455	93	47	12	20.5%	10.4%	2.7%	4.50	4.55	+0.9
2034	32	MLB	OAK	19	19	103	437	88	46	12	20.2%	10.5%	2.8%	4.58	4.63	+0.8
2035	33	MLB	OAK	18	18	99	417	83	45	12	19.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.73	+0.6
2036	34	MLB	OAK	17	17	94	396	77	43	12	19.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.77	4.84	+0.4
2037	35	MLB	OAK	16	16	88	373	72	42	11	19.2%	11.2%	3.1%	4.88	4.96	+0.2
2038	36	MLB	OAK	15	15	83	349	65	40	11	18.8%	11.4%	3.2%	5.01	5.10	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			71	31	197	900	163	124	12	18.1%	13.8%	1.4%	5.38	4.08	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—			72	31	200	912	165	126	12	18.1%	13.8%	1.4%	5.38	4.08	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corey Avant (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	20.0%	11.4%	2.3%	—	4.35	20.9%	10.7%	339	-0.17	—	—	—
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP-	4.58	19.0%	12.2%	2.8%	.296	5.08	18.4%	6.8%	57	+0.50	4.27	238	92
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	91
Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP-	4.03	19.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.256	3.80	18.2%	4.1%	73	-0.23	3.80	154	90
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	89
Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP-	3.75	19.4%	11.8%	1.5%	.264	5.04	18.9%	7.8%	312	+1.29	2.95	492	89
Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.45	17.7%	4.3%	141	+1.43	4.02	262	89
Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	89
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	89
Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	89
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	88
Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	24	SP-	4.18	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	3.95	17.0%	8.9%	127	-0.23	3.95	373	88
Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	87
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	87
Corey Baker R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	5.02	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.25	3.08	267	87
Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP-	4.09	16.6%	10.0%	2.0%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.30	4.09	171	86
Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP-	4.31	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.37	17.8%	9.7%	313	+0.06	2.50	554	86
Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP-	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.2%	.280	6.90	17.1%	1.8%	38	+3.23	3.67	270	86
David Lebron R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	25	SP-	4.30	18.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.336	5.70	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.40	4.30	144	86
Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	24	SP-	4.52	18.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.271	5.93	20.6%	7.6%	119	+1.41	4.52	358	86
Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP-	4.07	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.78	23.7%	14.8%	41	-0.29	3.78	293	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.0	$10M	+$8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.9	$4M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+0.8	$4M	+$0.1M
Totals		$12M		$52M	+$41M