Khadim Diaw
C Cedar Rapids Kernels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | AMIN | 99 | .271/.374/.341 | 1 | 4 | 68 | — | .239/.323/.307 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+MIN | 157 | .294/.455/.420 | 3 | 4 | 116 | — | .264/.403/.376 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A+MIN | 476 | .306/.420/.452 | 9 | 14 | 109 | — | .269/.365/.384 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBMIN | 1 | .248/.344/.360 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ42% MLB | 24 | MLBMIN | 173 | .251/.346/.371 | 3 | 3 | 107 | 0.8 | |
| 2029PROJ62% MLB | 25 | MLBMIN | 263 | .252/.346/.378 | 5 | 5 | 108 | 1.2 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 99 | 85 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 271 | 374 | 341 | 715 | 71 | 314 | 14 | 11 | 333 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 157 | 119 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 294 | 455 | 420 | 875 | 126 | 348 | 17 | 12 | 398 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 229 | 185 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 24 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 314 | 434 | 449 | 882 | 135 | 338 | 10 | 11 | 395 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 247 | 207 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 47 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 300 | 408 | 454 | 862 | 155 | 363 | 19 | 12 | 385 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 99 | 88 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 239 | 323 | 307 | 630 | 68 | 279 | 19 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 157 | 125 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 264 | 403 | 376 | 779 | 112 | 315 | 22 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 229 | 193 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 29 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 290 | 394 | 399 | 793 | 109 | 314 | 13 | 8 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 247 | 216 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 60 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 250 | 339 | 370 | 709 | 120 | 314 | 24 | 9 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 99 | 88 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 239 | 323 | 307 | 630 | 68 | 294 | 19 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 99 | 85 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 271 | 374 | 341 | 715 | 71 | 314 | 14 | 11 | 333 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 157 | 125 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 264 | 403 | 376 | 779 | 112 | 333 | 22 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 157 | 119 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 294 | 455 | 420 | 875 | 126 | 348 | 17 | 12 | 398 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 409 | 110 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 89 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 269 | 365 | 384 | 749 | 115 | 324 | 19 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 476 | 392 | 120 | 26 | 2 | 9 | 56 | 71 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 306 | 420 | 452 | 872 | 145 | 350 | 15 | 12 | 390 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 99 | 88 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 239 | 323 | 307 | 630 | 68 | 279 | 19 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 157 | 127 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 260 | 403 | 370 | 773 | 110 | 315 | 22 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 411 | 110 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 89 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 268 | 365 | 382 | 747 | 114 | 314 | 19 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 99 | 88 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 239 | 323 | 307 | 630 | 68 | 279 | 19 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 157 | 127 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 260 | 403 | 370 | 773 | 110 | 315 | 22 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 411 | 110 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 89 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 268 | 365 | 382 | 747 | 114 | 314 | 19 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 485 | 421 | 104 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 91 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 248 | 344 | 360 | 703 | 112 | 296 | 19 | 8 | 321 | 103 | +2 | +1 | -3 | +9 | +11 | 1.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIN | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 344 | 360 | 704 | 112 | 296 | 0 | 0 | 321 | 103 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIN | 42% | 407 | 353 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 76 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 251 | 346 | 371 | 717 | 120 | 297 | 19 | 8 | 326 | 107 | +3 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 1.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 62% | 423 | 367 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 80 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 251 | 346 | 377 | 723 | 126 | 297 | 19 | 9 | 328 | 108 | +4 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +9 | 2.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 71% | 430 | 373 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 82 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 251 | 344 | 379 | 723 | 128 | 296 | 19 | 9 | 328 | 108 | +4 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +9 | 2.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 74% | 428 | 372 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 83 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 250 | 342 | 378 | 720 | 128 | 296 | 19 | 9 | 326 | 107 | +3 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +9 | 2.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 75% | 423 | 369 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 83 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 248 | 339 | 374 | 714 | 127 | 295 | 20 | 9 | 323 | 105 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +9 | 1.7 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 74% | 414 | 362 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 83 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 245 | 336 | 368 | 704 | 123 | 293 | 20 | 8 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +7 | +9 | 1.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIN | 73% | 406 | 355 | 86 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 82 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 242 | 333 | 360 | 692 | 118 | 291 | 20 | 8 | 315 | 99 | -0 | -0 | -3 | +7 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIN | 72% | 379 | 331 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 78 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 237 | 328 | 349 | 677 | 112 | 288 | 21 | 8 | 309 | 95 | -2 | -0 | -4 | +7 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB MLE | MIN | 72% | 351 | 307 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 74 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 321 | 336 | 657 | 105 | 284 | 21 | 8 | 301 | 90 | -4 | -0 | -5 | +6 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB MLE | MIN | 72% | 273 | 240 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 59 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 225 | 314 | 321 | 634 | 96 | 279 | 22 | 8 | 292 | 83 | -5 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB MLE | MIN | 68% | 217 | 191 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 304 | 302 | 606 | 86 | 272 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -6 | +0 | -6 | +4 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIN | 42% | 173 | 149 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 251 | 346 | 371 | 717 | 121 | 297 | 18 | 9 | 326 | 107 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 62% | 263 | 228 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 49 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 252 | 346 | 378 | 723 | 126 | 297 | 19 | 8 | 328 | 108 | +2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 1.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 71% | 306 | 265 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 58 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 251 | 345 | 380 | 724 | 128 | 297 | 19 | 8 | 328 | 108 | +3 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 1.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 74% | 315 | 273 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 61 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 250 | 342 | 378 | 721 | 128 | 296 | 19 | 9 | 326 | 107 | +3 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 1.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 75% | 316 | 275 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 62 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 248 | 339 | 375 | 714 | 127 | 295 | 20 | 9 | 324 | 105 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +7 | 1.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 74% | 304 | 264 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 245 | 336 | 368 | 705 | 123 | 293 | 20 | 9 | 320 | 102 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIN | 73% | 296 | 259 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 333 | 360 | 693 | 118 | 291 | 20 | 8 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIN | 72% | 274 | 240 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 237 | 328 | 350 | 677 | 112 | 288 | 21 | 8 | 309 | 95 | -2 | -0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB CTX | MIN | 72% | 253 | 221 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 321 | 337 | 658 | 105 | 284 | 21 | 8 | 301 | 90 | -3 | -0 | -3 | +5 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB CTX | MIN | 72% | 197 | 173 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 314 | 321 | 635 | 96 | 279 | 22 | 8 | 292 | 83 | -4 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB CTX | MIN | 68% | 147 | 129 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 304 | 303 | 607 | 86 | 273 | 22 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -4 | +0 | -4 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2844 | 2476 | 603 | 111 | 10 | 54 | 240 | 569 | 103 | 30 | 14 | 244 | 336 | 362 | 697 | 118 | 294 | 20 | 8 | 316 | 101 | -1 | +0 | -24 | +51 | +62 | 9.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 566 | 137 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 55 | 130 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 242 | 335 | 357 | 692 | 115 | 293 | 20 | 8 | 316 | 101 | -0 | +0 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5093 | 4424 | 1088 | 195 | 21 | 93 | 427 | 1011 | 201 | 72 | 31 | 246 | 340 | 363 | 702 | 117 | 297 | 20 | 8 | 317 | 101 | +1 | +0 | -35 | +78 | +94 | 14.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 565 | 139 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 129 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 246 | 340 | 365 | 705 | 119 | 297 | 20 | 8 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 247 PAwOBA .379 → .309 (−70)K% 19.0% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.24% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 2.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 23.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 7.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.50% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .379 → .309; ISO .155 → .123; BABIP .363 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 229 PAwOBA .391 → .352 (−38)K% 10.5% → 12.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.48% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.11% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 5.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 24.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 5.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.04% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .391 → .352; ISO .135 → .121; BABIP .338 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 157 PAwOBA .394 → .340 (−54)K% 17.2% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.20% | ÷0.979 | ×1.270 | — | — | 22.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.46% | ÷0.989 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 10.19% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 8.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.35% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 27.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.088 | ×0.810 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 3.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.943 | ×0.850 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.26% | ÷0.962 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.74% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .394 → .340; ISO .126 → .109; BABIP .348 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 99 PAwOBA .325 → .269 (−56)K% 14.1% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.14% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.76% | ÷1.096 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 23.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 3.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.962 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .325 → .269; ISO .071 → .059; BABIP .314 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).