Melvin Hernandez

Melvin Hernandez P Carolina Mudcats

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 139 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 3.0 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%15.4%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$87M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD2560

K†3055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$15M	+$15M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.8	$18M	+$17M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+3.0	$18M	+$13M
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+3.1	$18M	+$10M
2033	Arb-3	$22M	+3.1	$17M	+$6M
Totals		$49M		$99M	+$73M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	10	7	35	146	30	9	1	70%	3.5	14.0%	7.7%	6.3%	0.5%	2.06	3.17	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	10	7	35	146	30	9	1	70%	3.5	14.0%	7.7%	6.3%	0.5%	2.06	3.17	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	10	7	35	146	30	9	1	70%	3.5	20.5%	6.2%	14.4%	0.7%	2.06	2.53	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	52	237	56	15	0	57%	3.7	15.8%	8.3%	7.5%	0.0%	4.85	2.82	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	52	237	56	15	0	57%	3.7	15.8%	8.3%	7.5%	0.0%	4.85	2.82	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	8	52	237	56	15	0	57%	3.7	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	0.0%	4.85	1.81	—
2025	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	24	17	122	487	97	22	3	71%	5.1	14.7%	5.3%	9.4%	0.7%	2.00	2.89	—
2025	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	24	17	122	487	97	22	3	71%	5.1	14.7%	5.3%	9.4%	0.7%	2.00	2.89	—
2025	19	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	24	17	122	487	97	22	3	71%	5.1	19.9%	4.5%	15.4%	0.6%	2.00	2.37	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	MIL	1	1	8	34	5	2	1	100%	8.0	15.4%	5.3%	10.1%	2.4%	4.18	4.18	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	149	629	112	33	15	100%	6.8	17.8%	5.3%	12.5%	2.4%	4.06	3.98	+1.6
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	175	739	148	38	18	100%	6.7	20.1%	5.1%	15.0%	2.4%	3.88	3.75	+2.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	180	760	164	37	18	100%	6.7	21.5%	4.9%	16.6%	2.4%	3.72	3.60	+2.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	180	760	170	36	18	100%	6.7	22.4%	4.8%	17.7%	2.4%	3.59	3.49	+3.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	180	760	175	35	18	100%	6.7	23.0%	4.6%	18.3%	2.4%	3.49	3.42	+3.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	180	760	177	35	18	100%	6.7	23.2%	4.6%	18.6%	2.4%	3.43	3.40	+3.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	177	749	174	35	18	100%	6.8	23.2%	4.7%	18.6%	2.4%	3.43	3.43	+3.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	172	726	168	35	18	100%	6.6	23.1%	4.8%	18.3%	2.5%	3.48	3.52	+2.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	164	694	159	35	18	100%	6.6	22.9%	5.1%	17.8%	2.7%	3.58	3.65	+2.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	154	652	147	35	19	100%	6.7	22.5%	5.3%	17.2%	2.9%	3.73	3.83	+2.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	144	608	134	35	19	100%	6.9	22.1%	5.7%	16.4%	3.1%	3.91	4.03	+1.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	133	562	122	34	19	100%	6.7	21.6%	6.1%	15.6%	3.3%	4.12	4.25	+1.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	122	516	109	34	19	100%	6.8	21.1%	6.6%	14.6%	3.6%	4.35	4.50	+0.6
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	73	308	55	16	8	100%	6.6	17.8%	5.3%	12.5%	2.5%	4.13	4.05	+0.8
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	128	540	108	28	14	100%	6.7	20.1%	5.1%	15.0%	2.5%	3.95	3.82	+1.8
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	152	642	138	32	16	100%	6.6	21.5%	4.9%	16.6%	2.5%	3.79	3.67	+2.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	160	676	152	32	17	100%	6.7	22.4%	4.8%	17.7%	2.5%	3.66	3.56	+2.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	165	697	160	32	17	100%	6.6	23.0%	4.6%	18.3%	2.5%	3.55	3.48	+3.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	168	709	165	33	18	100%	6.7	23.2%	4.6%	18.6%	2.5%	3.49	3.46	+3.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	168	709	165	33	18	100%	6.7	23.2%	4.7%	18.6%	2.5%	3.50	3.50	+3.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	163	688	159	33	18	100%	6.8	23.1%	4.8%	18.3%	2.6%	3.55	3.59	+2.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	156	659	151	33	18	100%	6.8	22.9%	5.1%	17.8%	2.8%	3.65	3.72	+2.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	147	621	140	33	19	100%	6.7	22.5%	5.3%	17.2%	3.0%	3.81	3.91	+1.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	137	578	128	33	19	100%	6.8	22.1%	5.7%	16.4%	3.2%	3.99	4.11	+1.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	127	536	116	33	19	100%	6.7	21.6%	6.1%	15.6%	3.5%	4.21	4.34	+1.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	116	490	104	32	19	100%	6.8	21.1%	6.6%	14.6%	3.8%	4.45	4.60	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		278	278	1860	7854	1739	403	218	100%	6.7	22.1%	5.1%	17.0%	2.8%	3.78	3.41	+34.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	187	43	23	100%	6.7	22.1%	5.1%	17.0%	2.8%	3.78	3.41	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		48	32	209	870	130	57	4	67%	4.3	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	0.5%	2.72	2.92	+30.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	31	200	834	124	55	4	67%	4.3	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	0.5%	2.72	2.92	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	15.4%	5.3%	2.4%	—	3.76	19.9%	14.8%	504	-0.42	—	—	—
Nick Gardewine R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	21	SP-	4.24	14.4%	6.3%	2.8%	.334	3.18	24.5%	16.4%	104	-1.06	2.62	200	88
Brock Dykxhoorn R 2015 · 3.89 FIP	21	SP-	3.89	15.5%	6.8%	2.2%	.287	4.48	16.4%	8.3%	350	+0.59	3.89	459	86
Brock Hartson R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP-	4.00	13.6%	5.8%	2.4%	.292	4.57	13.9%	6.3%	173	+0.57	4.00	299	85
Alex Eubanks R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	16.1%	7.3%	2.6%	.335	3.85	11.1%	3.0%	107	-0.27	3.85	219	85
Carson LaRue R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	16.0%	7.3%	2.1%	.283	5.03	15.4%	6.3%	224	+1.19	3.84	360	85
Dylan Unsworth R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	16.9%	4.2%	2.9%	.333	4.05	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.27	3.05	377	84
Jean Cosme R 2016 · 3.09 FIP	20	SP-	3.09	15.4%	6.0%	1.0%	.329	3.37	17.1%	8.0%	88	+0.28	1.95	194	84
Joe DeMers R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	13.6%	4.9%	3.5%	.329	3.98	10.6%	3.7%	72	-0.49	3.49	167	84
Francisco Rios R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	21	SP	3.32	16.6%	6.8%	1.4%	.295	5.15	13.5%	2.6%	173	+1.83	3.32	294	83
Akeem Bostick R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	20	SP	4.21	13.8%	5.4%	2.9%	.288	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	261	-0.03	3.77	499	83
Kyle Dowdy R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	14.2%	6.3%	2.3%	.311	3.90	17.5%	8.6%	323	-0.04	2.98	606	83
Austin Chrismon R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	11.6%	5.2%	3.2%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	122	83
Reid Johnston R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	19.4%	6.1%	2.8%	.297	5.00	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.26	3.74	234	82
Joey Maher R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	22	SP-	3.38	15.1%	7.2%	1.2%	.241	3.54	17.2%	8.1%	47	+0.16	3.38	166	82
Jhoan Quijada R 2015 · 2.98 FIP	20	SP	2.98	15.5%	5.7%	0.9%	.333	5.02	9.9%	2.6%	151	+2.04	2.98	229	82
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	81
Ricky Knapp R 2015 · 3.48 FIP	23	SP-	3.48	13.7%	5.4%	1.6%	.325	3.66	12.4%	6.6%	335	+0.18	3.38	456	81
Randy Bell R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	14.4%	6.6%	3.0%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	120	81
Ryan Etsell R 2015 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	14.7%	6.4%	1.8%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	110	81
Adam Mazur R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP-	3.22	18.0%	4.9%	1.9%	.326	4.90	17.7%	10.8%	264	+1.68	3.22	360	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.1	158	21.7%	5.1%	1.01	3.74
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13