Melvin Hernandez

Melvin Hernandez P Carolina Mudcats

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 139 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 103 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%15.4%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP103

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD2560

K†3055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$11M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$12M	+$11M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+2.1	$12M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+2.1	$11M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$22M	+2.1	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$27M		$66M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 2	10	7	35	146	30	9	1	70%	3.5	14.0%	7.7%	6.3%	0.3%	2.06	3.08	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 2	10	7	35	146	30	9	1	70%	3.5	20.5%	6.2%	14.4%	0.7%	2.06	2.53	—
2024	18	MIX	2 levels	14	8	52	237	56	15	0	57%	3.7	15.8%	8.3%	7.5%	0.0%	4.85	2.82	—
2024	18	MIX	2 levels	14	8	52	237	56	15	0	57%	3.7	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	0.0%	4.85	1.81	—
2025	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	24	17	122	487	97	22	3	71%	5.1	14.7%	5.3%	9.4%	0.6%	2.00	2.84	—
2025	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	24	17	122	487	97	22	3	71%	5.1	19.9%	4.5%	15.4%	0.6%	2.00	2.37	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	MIL	15	15	103	437	67	24	10	100%	6.9	15.4%	5.4%	10.0%	2.4%	4.18	4.18	+1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIL	21	21	143	602	107	33	14	100%	6.8	17.8%	5.5%	12.4%	2.4%	4.07	3.98	+2.4
2028	22	MLB	MIL	26	26	175	739	148	39	18	100%	6.7	20.1%	5.2%	14.8%	2.4%	3.89	3.76	+3.4
2029	23	MLB	MIL	27	27	180	760	164	38	18	100%	6.7	21.5%	5.0%	16.5%	2.4%	3.73	3.60	+3.8
2030	24	MLB	MIL	27	27	180	760	170	37	18	100%	6.7	22.4%	4.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.60	3.50	+4.0
2031	25	MLB	MIL	27	27	180	760	175	36	18	100%	6.7	23.0%	4.8%	18.2%	2.3%	3.50	3.43	+4.1
2032	26	MLB	MIL	27	27	180	760	177	36	18	100%	6.7	23.2%	4.7%	18.5%	2.3%	3.44	3.40	+4.2
2033	27	MLB	MIL	26	26	177	749	174	36	18	100%	6.8	23.2%	4.8%	18.4%	2.4%	3.44	3.44	+4.1
2034	28	MLB	MIL	26	26	172	726	168	36	18	100%	6.6	23.1%	4.9%	18.1%	2.5%	3.49	3.52	+3.8
2035	29	MLB	MIL	25	25	164	694	159	36	18	100%	6.6	22.9%	5.2%	17.7%	2.6%	3.59	3.66	+3.3
2036	30	MLB	MIL	23	23	154	652	147	36	19	100%	6.7	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	2.8%	3.74	3.83	+2.8
2037	31	MLB	MIL	21	21	144	608	134	35	19	100%	6.9	22.1%	5.8%	16.3%	3.1%	3.92	4.03	+2.3
2038	32	MLB	MIL	20	20	133	562	122	35	19	100%	6.7	21.6%	6.2%	15.4%	3.3%	4.12	4.26	+1.8
2039	33	MLB	MIL	18	18	122	516	109	34	19	100%	6.8	21.1%	6.7%	14.5%	3.6%	4.35	4.51	+1.3
2027	21	MLB	MIL	10	10	70	296	53	16	7	100%	7.0	17.8%	5.5%	12.4%	2.4%	4.04	3.95	+0.7
2028	22	MLB	MIL	19	19	128	540	108	28	13	100%	6.7	20.1%	5.2%	14.8%	2.3%	3.86	3.73	+2.5
2029	23	MLB	MIL	23	23	152	642	138	32	15	100%	6.6	21.5%	5.0%	16.5%	2.3%	3.70	3.57	+3.2
2030	24	MLB	MIL	24	24	160	676	152	33	16	100%	6.7	22.4%	4.9%	17.5%	2.3%	3.57	3.47	+3.6
2031	25	MLB	MIL	25	25	165	697	160	33	16	100%	6.6	23.0%	4.8%	18.2%	2.3%	3.47	3.40	+3.9
2032	26	MLB	MIL	25	25	168	709	165	33	16	100%	6.7	23.2%	4.7%	18.5%	2.3%	3.41	3.37	+4.0
2033	27	MLB	MIL	25	25	168	709	165	34	17	100%	6.7	23.2%	4.8%	18.4%	2.3%	3.41	3.41	+3.9
2034	28	MLB	MIL	24	24	163	688	159	34	17	100%	6.8	23.1%	4.9%	18.1%	2.4%	3.46	3.49	+3.6
2035	29	MLB	MIL	23	23	156	659	151	34	17	100%	6.8	22.9%	5.2%	17.7%	2.6%	3.56	3.63	+3.2
2036	30	MLB	MIL	22	22	147	621	140	34	17	100%	6.7	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	2.8%	3.71	3.80	+2.8
2037	31	MLB	MIL	20	20	137	578	128	34	17	100%	6.8	22.1%	5.8%	16.3%	3.0%	3.89	4.00	+2.2
2038	32	MLB	MIL	19	19	127	536	116	33	17	100%	6.7	21.6%	6.2%	15.4%	3.3%	4.08	4.22	+1.7
2039	33	MLB	MIL	17	17	116	490	104	33	17	100%	6.8	21.1%	6.7%	14.5%	3.5%	4.31	4.47	+1.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			277	277	1857	7840	1737	412	202	100%	6.7	22.2%	5.3%	16.9%	2.6%	3.69	3.31	+45.4
/ 200 IP	—			30	30	200	844	187	44	22	100%	6.7	22.2%	5.3%	16.9%	2.6%	3.69	3.31	+4.9
Career	—			48	32	209	870	130	57	3	67%	4.3	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	0.4%	2.72	2.87	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—			46	31	200	834	124	55	3	67%	4.3	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	0.4%	2.72	2.87	+5.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	15.4%	5.4%	2.4%	—	3.77	20.0%	14.7%	498	-0.41	—	—	—
Nick Gardewine R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	21	SP-	3.99	14.4%	6.3%	2.4%	.334	3.06	24.5%	16.4%	104	-0.93	2.56	200	89
Brock Dykxhoorn R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP-	3.85	15.5%	6.8%	2.2%	.287	4.35	16.4%	8.3%	350	+0.50	3.85	459	86
Alex Eubanks R 2028 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP-	3.91	16.1%	7.3%	2.3%	.335	3.78	11.1%	3.0%	107	-0.13	3.78	219	86
Brock Hartson R 2028 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP-	3.91	13.6%	5.8%	2.2%	.292	4.82	13.9%	6.3%	173	+0.91	3.91	299	86
Carson LaRue R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	21	SP-	3.73	16.0%	7.3%	1.9%	.283	5.08	15.4%	6.3%	224	+1.35	3.73	360	85
Jean Cosme R 2026 · 3.17 FIP	20	SP-	3.17	15.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.329	3.31	17.1%	8.0%	88	+0.14	1.95	194	85
Francisco Rios R 2027 · 3.40 FIP	21	SP	3.40	16.6%	6.8%	1.5%	.295	5.09	13.5%	2.6%	173	+1.69	3.40	294	84
Joe DeMers R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	13.6%	4.9%	3.4%	.329	4.04	10.6%	3.7%	72	-0.41	3.49	167	84
Dylan Unsworth R 2028 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	16.9%	4.2%	3.0%	.333	4.08	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.20	3.06	377	84
Akeem Bostick R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	20	SP	4.24	13.8%	5.4%	2.9%	.288	4.09	15.6%	5.5%	261	-0.15	3.71	499	83
Austin Chrismon R 2028 · 4.61 FIP	22	SP-	4.61	11.6%	5.2%	3.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	122	82
Joey Maher R 2028 · 3.42 FIP	22	SP-	3.42	15.1%	7.2%	1.2%	.241	3.68	17.2%	8.1%	47	+0.26	3.42	166	82
Ricky Knapp R 2029 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP-	3.76	13.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.325	3.57	12.4%	6.6%	335	-0.19	3.39	456	82
Kyle Dowdy R 2029 · 4.47 FIP	23	SP-	4.47	14.2%	6.3%	3.2%	.311	3.99	17.5%	8.6%	323	-0.48	2.81	606	82
Reid Johnston R 2029 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	19.4%	6.1%	2.7%	.297	4.90	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.72	234	82
Cale Lansville R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	21	SP-	3.95	15.1%	7.7%	2.1%	.325	5.03	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.08	3.95	113	82
Jhoan Quijada R 2026 · 2.98 FIP	20	SP	2.98	15.5%	5.7%	0.9%	.333	4.99	9.9%	2.6%	151	+2.01	2.98	229	82
Cole Peschl R 2028 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP-	3.36	17.2%	7.5%	1.4%	.304	5.18	15.1%	6.3%	46	+1.82	3.36	115	81
Ryan Etsell R 2029 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	14.7%	6.4%	2.0%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	110	81
Pedro Fernandez R 2027 · 3.47 FIP	21	SP-	3.47	18.1%	8.7%	1.4%	.330	3.38	15.9%	8.2%	197	-0.09	3.23	407	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	158	21.7%	5.3%	1.01	3.75
Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF	9	169	21.2%	4.8%	1.10	3.42
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Dallas Keuchel ('23)	9	132	18.7%	7.3%	0.96	3.97
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS	8	155	22.7%	5.9%	1.23	3.70
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45