Melvin Hernandez

P Carolina Mudcats

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 139 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#94ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	17	ROKDSL Brewers 2	10	7	35	2.06	2.53	20.5%	6.2%	—	K 14.0% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.17
2024	18	MIX2 levels	14	8	52	4.85	1.81	23.6%	6.3%	—	K 15.8% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.82
2025	19	ACarolina Mudc…	24	17	122	2.00	2.37	19.9%	4.5%	—	K 14.7% · BB 5.3% · FIP 2.89
2026	20	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	—	—	0	4.25	4.25	16.2%	5.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	10	10	62	4.16	4.06	18.9%	5.1%	1.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	15	15	98	4.00	3.88	20.7%	5.0%	1.9

Next 3 projected WAR 2.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$6M2032Arb-2$10M2033Arb-3$14M

CompsDylan Unsworth (age 22) · Nick Gardewine (age 21) · Alex Eubanks (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%16.2%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP103

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$71M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+2.5	$15M	+$11M
2032	Arb-2	$10M	+2.7	$16M	+$10M
2033	Arb-3	$14M	+2.6	$14M	+$6M
Totals		$33M		$79M	+$60M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	10	7	35	146	30	9	1	70%	3.5	14.0%	7.7%	6.3%	0.5%	2.06	3.17	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	10	7	35	146	30	9	1	70%	3.5	20.5%	6.2%	14.4%	0.7%	2.06	2.53	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	52	237	56	15	0	57%	3.7	15.8%	8.3%	7.5%	0.0%	4.85	2.82	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	52	237	56	15	0	57%	3.7	15.8%	8.3%	7.5%	0.0%	4.85	2.82	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	8	52	237	56	15	0	57%	3.7	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	0.0%	4.85	1.81	—
2025	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	24	17	122	487	97	22	3	71%	5.1	14.7%	5.3%	9.4%	0.7%	2.00	2.89	—
2025	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	24	17	122	487	97	22	3	71%	5.1	14.7%	5.3%	9.4%	0.7%	2.00	2.89	—
2025	19	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	24	17	122	487	97	22	3	71%	5.1	19.9%	4.5%	15.4%	0.6%	2.00	2.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.2%	5.2%	10.9%	2.7%	4.25	4.25	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	126	532	101	27	14	100%	6.6	18.9%	5.1%	13.9%	2.7%	4.09	3.99	+2.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	135	570	118	28	15	100%	6.4	20.7%	5.0%	15.7%	2.6%	3.93	3.81	+2.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	135	570	124	28	15	100%	6.4	21.8%	4.9%	16.9%	2.6%	3.80	3.70	+2.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	132	557	125	27	15	100%	6.6	22.5%	4.8%	17.6%	2.6%	3.71	3.63	+2.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	133	560	128	27	15	100%	6.6	22.8%	4.8%	18.0%	2.6%	3.64	3.60	+2.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	130	548	125	27	15	100%	6.5	22.8%	4.9%	17.9%	2.7%	3.64	3.64	+2.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	124	525	119	26	15	100%	6.5	22.7%	5.0%	17.7%	2.8%	3.69	3.72	+2.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	116	491	110	26	14	100%	6.5	22.4%	5.2%	17.2%	2.9%	3.79	3.85	+2.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	106	446	99	25	14	100%	6.6	22.1%	5.5%	16.6%	3.1%	3.93	4.03	+1.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	95	399	87	24	13	100%	6.3	21.7%	5.9%	15.8%	3.3%	4.11	4.23	+1.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	83	352	75	22	13	100%	6.4	21.2%	6.3%	14.9%	3.6%	4.32	4.46	+0.9
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	73	307	64	21	12	100%	6.6	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	3.9%	4.55	4.71	+0.6
2040	34	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	63	266	54	19	11	100%	6.3	20.2%	7.2%	13.0%	4.2%	4.81	4.98	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	62	262	50	13	7	100%	6.2	18.9%	5.1%	13.9%	2.8%	4.16	4.06	+1.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	98	414	86	21	11	100%	6.5	20.7%	5.0%	15.7%	2.8%	4.00	3.88	+1.9
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	112	473	103	23	13	100%	6.6	21.8%	4.9%	16.9%	2.8%	3.87	3.77	+2.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	116	490	110	24	13	100%	6.4	22.5%	4.8%	17.6%	2.8%	3.78	3.70	+2.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	121	511	117	25	14	100%	6.4	22.8%	4.8%	18.0%	2.8%	3.71	3.67	+2.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	120	507	116	25	14	100%	6.7	22.8%	4.9%	17.9%	2.8%	3.71	3.71	+2.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	116	490	111	25	14	100%	6.4	22.7%	5.0%	17.7%	2.9%	3.77	3.80	+2.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	110	464	104	24	14	100%	6.5	22.4%	5.2%	17.2%	3.1%	3.87	3.93	+2.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	100	422	93	23	14	100%	6.7	22.1%	5.5%	16.6%	3.3%	4.02	4.12	+1.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	90	380	82	22	13	100%	6.4	21.7%	5.9%	15.8%	3.5%	4.20	4.32	+1.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	79	334	71	21	13	100%	6.6	21.2%	6.3%	14.9%	3.8%	4.42	4.56	+0.9
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	69	291	60	20	12	100%	6.3	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	4.1%	4.66	4.82	+0.5
2040	34	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	57	241	49	17	11	100%	6.3	20.2%	7.2%	13.0%	4.4%	4.92	5.09	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		192	192	1253	5289	1154	284	165	100%	6.5	21.8%	5.4%	16.5%	3.1%	4.01	3.65	+26.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	184	45	26	100%	6.5	21.8%	5.4%	16.5%	3.1%	4.01	3.65	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		48	32	209	870	130	57	4	67%	4.3	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	0.5%	2.72	2.92	+25.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	31	200	834	124	55	4	67%	4.3	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	0.5%	2.72	2.92	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 122 IPFIP 2.33 → 2.89 (+0.56)K% 19.9% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.92%	—	×0.740	14.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.52%	—	×1.180	5.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷1.214	×1.300	0.66%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Brewers · 46 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.82 (+0.84)K% 23.2% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.22%	—	×0.680	15.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.64%	—	×1.250	8.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.947	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 6 IPFIP 1.31 → 1.99 (+0.68)K% 26.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.740	19.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.180	4.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.101	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.31 → 1.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Brewers 2 · 35 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.17 (+0.65)K% 20.5% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.55%	—	×0.680	13.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.16%	—	×1.250	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.904	×1.400	0.50%

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	3.83	20.5%	15.5%	396	-0.42	—	—	—
Dylan Unsworth R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	16.9%	4.2%	2.9%	.333	4.05	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.27	3.05	377	88
Nick Gardewine R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	21	SP-	4.24	14.4%	6.3%	2.8%	.334	3.18	24.5%	16.4%	104	-1.06	2.62	200	87
Alex Eubanks R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	16.1%	7.3%	2.6%	.335	3.85	11.1%	3.0%	107	-0.27	3.85	219	87
Joe DeMers R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	13.6%	4.9%	3.5%	.329	3.98	10.6%	3.7%	72	-0.49	3.49	167	87
Reid Johnston R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	19.4%	6.1%	2.8%	.297	5.00	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.26	3.74	234	86
Brock Hartson R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP-	4.00	13.6%	5.8%	2.4%	.292	4.57	13.9%	6.3%	173	+0.57	4.00	299	85
Alex Sanabia R 2010 · 3.51 FIP	21	SP-	3.51	15.3%	4.6%	2.1%	.283	5.47	12.4%	3.6%	55	+1.96	3.42	505	84
Brock Dykxhoorn R 2015 · 3.89 FIP	21	SP-	3.89	15.5%	6.8%	2.2%	.287	4.48	16.4%	8.3%	350	+0.59	3.89	459	84
Kyle Dowdy R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	14.2%	6.3%	2.3%	.311	3.90	17.5%	8.6%	323	-0.04	2.98	606	84
Blake Money R 2024 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP-	3.46	20.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.281	4.00	23.6%	14.1%	121	+0.54	3.46	224	84
Adam Mazur R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP-	3.22	18.0%	4.9%	1.9%	.326	4.86	18.1%	11.2%	264	+1.64	3.22	360	84
Carson LaRue R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	16.0%	7.3%	2.1%	.283	5.03	15.4%	6.3%	224	+1.19	3.84	360	83
Ryan Etsell R 2015 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	14.7%	6.4%	1.8%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	110	83
Randy Bell R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	14.4%	6.6%	3.0%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	120	83
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	83
Michael Rucker R 2017 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP-	3.22	18.9%	5.8%	1.8%	.298	4.43	19.1%	11.7%	208	+1.21	3.22	595	83
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	315	83
Ricky Knapp R 2015 · 3.48 FIP	23	SP-	3.48	13.7%	5.4%	1.6%	.325	3.66	12.4%	6.6%	335	+0.18	3.38	456	83
Austin Chrismon R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	11.6%	5.2%	3.2%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	122	82
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	111	21.3%	5.3%	1.13	3.95
John Candelaria ('75-'93, 42 WAR*)	12.6	140	22.5%*	5.7%*	1.34*	3.73*
Atlee Hammaker ('81-'95, 9 WAR*)	5.4	120	18.1%*	6.4%*	1.18*	4.37*
Phil Hughes ('18)	6.5	108	18.9%	5.7%	1.33	4.52
Danny Darwin ('78-'98, 36 WAR*)	15.1	151	20.5%*	6.7%*	1.21*	4.02*
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78