Melvin Hernandez

Melvin Hernandez P Carolina Mudcats

+1.7 WAR

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 139 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 3.6 · 2032

ERA4.11

FIP4.11

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.8%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%12.1%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.6peak

2032

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 2	10	7	35	146	30	9	1	14.0%	7.7%	0.4%	2.06	3.11	+0.7
2024	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	14	8	52	237	56	15	0	15.8%	8.3%	0.0%	4.85	2.82	+1.3
2025	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	24	17	122	487	97	22	3	14.7%	5.3%	0.7%	2.00	2.90	+3.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	MIL	22	22	120	507	100	39	12	19.8%	7.6%	2.4%	4.11	4.11	+1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	MIL	23	23	126	532	109	40	13	20.6%	7.4%	2.4%	4.06	4.02	+1.8
2028	22	MLB	MIL	28	28	154	651	141	46	16	21.6%	7.1%	2.4%	3.95	3.87	+2.5
2029	23	MLB	MIL	33	33	180	760	170	52	18	22.4%	6.8%	2.4%	3.84	3.76	+3.1
2030	24	MLB	MIL	34	34	185	779	179	51	19	22.9%	6.6%	2.4%	3.75	3.68	+3.4
2031	25	MLB	MIL	34	34	187	789	184	51	19	23.3%	6.5%	2.4%	3.68	3.63	+3.5
2032	26	MLB	MIL	34	34	187	789	185	51	19	23.5%	6.4%	2.4%	3.64	3.61	+3.6
2033	27	MLB	MIL	34	34	186	783	184	50	19	23.5%	6.4%	2.4%	3.63	3.62	+3.5
2034	28	MLB	MIL	33	33	183	771	181	50	19	23.5%	6.5%	2.4%	3.64	3.64	+3.4
2035	29	MLB	MIL	32	32	179	754	176	50	18	23.3%	6.6%	2.5%	3.67	3.69	+3.3
2036	30	MLB	MIL	31	31	173	731	169	49	18	23.1%	6.7%	2.5%	3.72	3.75	+3.0
2037	31	MLB	MIL	30	30	167	706	162	48	18	22.9%	6.8%	2.6%	3.78	3.82	+2.8
2038	32	MLB	MIL	29	29	160	677	153	47	18	22.6%	6.9%	2.7%	3.86	3.91	+2.5
2039	33	MLB	MIL	28	28	153	647	144	46	18	22.3%	7.1%	2.8%	3.95	4.01	+2.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			48	32	209	870	130	57	4	14.9%	6.5%	0.4%	2.72	2.91	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—			46	31	200	834	125	55	4	14.9%	6.5%	0.4%	2.72	2.91	+5.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	19.8%	7.6%	2.4%	—	3.87	21.6%	14.6%	460	-0.24	—	—	—
Max Rajcic R 2027 · 3.14 FIP	21	SP-	3.14	19.0%	6.4%	1.5%	.276	4.47	17.4%	8.0%	262	+1.33	3.14	385	91
Blake Money R 2028 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP-	3.53	20.7%	6.9%	2.4%	.281	4.05	23.6%	14.1%	121	+0.52	3.53	224	89
Chris McMahon R 2028 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	18.9%	7.6%	2.7%	.330	5.28	16.7%	9.2%	85	+1.32	3.96	199	89
Jack Mahoney R 2028 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.57	13.9%	3.2%	105	+0.67	3.90	225	89
Ty Langenberg R 2028 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP-	3.53	19.2%	7.6%	2.0%	.325	3.82	16.2%	4.6%	105	+0.29	3.53	213	88
David Burkhalter R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	20	SP-	3.69	16.0%	6.1%	2.1%	.308	3.99	12.9%	8.5%	88	+0.30	3.09	189	88
Michael Fulmer R 2028 · 3.20 FIP	22	SP-	3.20	19.7%	7.0%	1.6%	.290	3.79	19.2%	12.5%	471	+0.59	2.98	874	88
Francisco Rios R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	21	SP-	3.33	16.6%	6.8%	1.4%	.295	5.15	13.5%	2.6%	173	+1.82	3.33	294	88
Carson LaRue R 2027 · 3.83 FIP	21	SP-	3.83	16.0%	7.3%	2.1%	.283	5.05	15.4%	6.3%	224	+1.22	3.83	360	87
Brett Conine R 2028 · 3.21 FIP	22	SP-	3.21	22.3%	7.2%	2.0%	.290	5.79	15.4%	4.9%	205	+2.58	3.21	319	87
Chih-Wei Hu R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	21	SP-	3.74	16.8%	7.3%	2.1%	.319	3.88	17.3%	11.1%	320	+0.14	3.43	497	87
Colton Eastman R 2028 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	19.4%	7.9%	3.4%	.304	4.97	17.0%	2.8%	155	+0.64	4.19	349	87
Brock Dykxhoorn R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	21	SP-	3.89	15.5%	6.8%	2.2%	.287	4.45	16.4%	8.3%	350	+0.56	3.89	459	87
Corbin Martin R 2028 · 3.30 FIP	22	SP-	3.30	20.4%	8.1%	1.6%	.257	5.69	21.1%	7.3%	100	+2.39	3.30	421	87
Luke Leftwich R 2028 · 3.25 FIP	22	SP-	3.25	20.0%	8.0%	1.5%	.337	3.29	23.7%	14.9%	185	+0.04	2.49	331	87
Austin Cates R 2028 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	86
Matt Tabor R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP-	3.38	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.84	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.46	3.38	203	86
Cedric De Grandpre R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP-	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.25	21.5%	2.2%	65	+0.87	3.38	151	86
Hunter Wood R 2027 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP-	2.88	20.6%	6.8%	1.2%	.238	3.92	21.1%	11.6%	319	+1.04	2.88	483	86
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.5	$32M	+$32M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.6	$34M	+$33M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.5	$34M	+$33M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+3.4	$34M	+$27M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+3.3	$34M	+$22M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$22M		$170M	+$148M