Michael Rucker

P Seattle Mariners

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MIX2 levels	48	2	62	3.79	4.04	23.3%	9.5%	0.4	K 22.3% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.24
2024	30	MIX3 levels	26	0	31	6.16	3.33	26.9%	7.6%	—	K 22.0% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.94
2026	32	MIX2 levels	59	0	66	4.21	3.48	26.0%	9.7%	0.8	K 24.8% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.57
2027PROJ	33	MLBSEA	48	0	50	4.08	4.14	25.4%	9.3%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBSEA	36	0	38	4.30	4.45	24.5%	9.8%	0.0
2029PROJ91% MLB	35	MLBSEA	24	0	25	4.59	4.78	23.6%	10.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%75

FB Velo74

xwOBA vs57

Form6.38 ERA (proj 4.08) · K 26.7% (proj 25.4%) · BB 10.9% (proj 9.3%) · last 90d · 24 IP through Oct 27

CompsTony Barnette (age 33) · Joe Nelson (age 33) · Jim Henderson (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA4.08

FIP4.14

K%25.4%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%16.1%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	5	0	9	30	11	1	0	0%	1.7	36.7%	3.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.43	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	5	0	9	30	11	1	0	0%	1.7	36.7%	3.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.91	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	106	421	114	19	6	56%	3.9	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	1.8%	2.38	3.22	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	15	106	421	114	19	6	56%	3.9	27.1%	4.5%	22.6%	1.4%	2.38	2.22	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	26	26	133	558	118	37	17	100%	5.1	17.1%	7.3%	9.8%	3.9%	3.73	4.70	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	26	26	133	558	118	37	17	100%	5.1	21.1%	6.6%	14.5%	3.0%	3.73	3.82	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	80	339	93	25	10	3%	2.2	22.5%	7.6%	15.0%	3.3%	4.18	3.96	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	80	339	93	25	10	3%	2.2	27.4%	7.4%	20.1%	2.9%	4.18	3.34	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	68	293	79	19	13	0%	1.7	25.0%	6.6%	18.3%	4.6%	5.72	4.33	+0.2
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	68	293	79	19	13	0%	1.7	27.0%	6.5%	20.5%	4.4%	5.72	4.10	+0.4
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	70	297	63	27	8	0%	1.4	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	2.8%	3.34	4.06	+0.4
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	70	297	63	27	8	0%	1.4	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	2.7%	3.34	3.94	+0.5
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	2	62	253	59	24	8	4%	1.3	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.4%	3.79	4.24	+0.2
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	2	62	253	59	24	8	4%	1.3	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	3.2%	3.79	4.04	+0.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	31	145	39	11	4	0%	1.2	22.0%	6.8%	15.2%	3.4%	6.16	3.94	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	31	145	39	11	4	0%	1.2	22.0%	6.8%	15.2%	3.4%	6.16	3.94	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	31	145	39	11	4	0%	1.2	26.9%	7.6%	19.3%	2.8%	6.16	3.33	—
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	66	288	75	28	7	0%	1.1	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	2.5%	4.21	3.57	+0.8
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	66	288	75	28	7	0%	1.1	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	2.5%	4.21	3.57	+0.8
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	66	288	75	28	7	0%	1.1	26.0%	9.7%	16.3%	2.4%	4.21	3.48	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			133	0	167	717	170	67	25	0%	1.3	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	3.5%	5.12	4.21	+0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	SEA	48	0	50	211	54	20	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.3%	16.1%	3.0%	4.08	4.14	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	SEA	38	0	40	169	41	17	6	0%	1.1	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	3.3%	4.30	4.45	+0.0
2029	35	MLB MLE	SEA	26	0	28	116	27	12	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.3%	13.2%	3.6%	4.59	4.78	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	SEA	36	0	38	160	39	16	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	3.3%	4.30	4.45	+0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	SEA	24	0	25	106	25	11	4	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.3%	13.2%	3.6%	4.59	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	0	230	983	234	94	34	0%	1.2	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	3.5%	4.93	4.20	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		168	0	200	855	203	82	30	0%	1.2	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	3.5%	4.93	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		317	44	623	2624	557	199	82	14%	2.0	21.2%	7.6%	13.6%	3.1%	3.86	3.99	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	14	200	842	179	64	26	14%	2.0	21.2%	7.6%	13.6%	3.1%	3.86	3.99	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 23 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.14 (+0.21)K% 24.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.51%	—	×0.860	21.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.78%	—	×0.900	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 28 IPFIP 3.54 → 3.94 (+0.40)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.56%	—	×0.860	21.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.52%	—	×0.900	6.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷0.986	×1.100	3.36%

Result: FIP 3.54 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 21 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.67 (+0.41)K% 24.7% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.68%	—	×0.860	21.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.49%	—	×0.900	5.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.965	×1.100	2.96%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 15 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.05 (+0.26)K% 19.1% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.12%	—	×0.880	16.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.050	10.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 39 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.23 (+0.37)K% 29.3% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.34%	—	×0.880	25.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.79%	—	×1.050	5.03%
HR / BF /BF	4.79%	÷1.081	×1.100	4.88%

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATennessee Smokies · 76 IPFIP 3.34 → 3.96 (+0.62)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.81%	—	×0.810	22.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.88%	—	×1.100	7.56%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.142	×1.200	3.28%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AATennessee Smokies · 133 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.70 (+0.87)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.810	17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.63%	—	×1.100	7.29%
HR / BF /BF	3.05%	÷0.947	×1.200	3.86%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 93 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.22 (+0.82)K% 24.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.60%	—	×0.770	18.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×1.150	5.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷0.936	×1.250	1.79%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Rucker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	25.4%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.58	24.1%	14.1%	68	+0.44	—	—	—
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	79
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	78
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	77
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	76
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	74
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	73
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	73
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	73
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	72
Tim Dillard R 2016 · 3.13 FIP	33	SU	3.13	22.6%	8.2%	1.7%	.358	4.14	13.7%	6.9%	250	+1.01	2.92	432	72
Akinori Otsuka R 2005 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	21.7%	9.4%	1.1%	.278	2.59	19.4%	14.2%	92	-0.46	2.39	232	72
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	71
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	71
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	69
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	68
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.7%	10.4%	2.0%	.255	4.41	24.1%	13.8%	97	+0.80	3.34	335	68
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	68
Tommy Nance R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	33	SU	3.51	20.2%	5.8%	2.5%	.327	2.84	26.3%	19.5%	123	-0.67	2.08	360	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	41	24.1%	9.5%	1.31	4.77
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*