Adam Mazur
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.8 · 2028
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 123 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.57
FIP5.54
K%17.2%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%7.1%
ROS IP123
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p1013.7%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
SL (41%)
SI (16%)
CU (11%)
CH-1.7 (8%)
FB-3.3 (40%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 96 | 394 | 90 | 17 | 5 | 75% | 4.0 | 18.0% | 4.9% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 2.81 | 3.48 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 96 | 394 | 90 | 17 | 5 | 75% | 4.0 | 22.8% | 4.3% | 18.5% | 1.3% | 2.81 | 2.43 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 127 | 541 | 114 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 4.7 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 5.46 | 4.70 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 127 | 541 | 114 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 5.46 | 4.07 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 137 | 589 | 119 | 42 | 25 | 89% | 4.9 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 4.46 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 137 | 589 | 119 | 42 | 25 | 89% | 4.9 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 4.46 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 112 | 475 | 82 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 5.57 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 174 | 736 | 132 | 72 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 5.40 | 5.38 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 135 | 72 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.33 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 170 | 717 | 131 | 70 | 29 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 5.33 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 89 | 49 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 5.40 | 5.38 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 105 | 56 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.33 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 111 | 60 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 5.33 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 80 | 461 | 1976 | 346 | 197 | 76 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 5.47 | 5.01 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 857 | 150 | 85 | 33 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 5.47 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 70 | 360 | 1524 | 279 | 103 | 64 | 89% | 4.6 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 4.37 | 4.72 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 39 | 200 | 846 | 155 | 57 | 36 | 89% | 4.6 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 4.37 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Mazur (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.54 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 4.1% | — | 5.36 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 519 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 78 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 77 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 76 |
| Matthew DeRosier R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 200 | 75 |
| Austin Gordon R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 75 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.43 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 94 | -0.99 | 3.93 | 419 | 74 |
| Spencer Jones R 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.45 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 4.5% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 171 | 74 |
| Anders Tolhurst R 2026 · 6.41 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.41 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 159 | 74 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.22 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .335 | 5.81 | 14.3% | -0.8% | 71 | +0.59 | 4.87 | 274 | 73 |
| Peyton Stumbo R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.49 | 14.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 235 | 73 |
| Grant Judkins R 2025 · 6.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 6.22 | 15.8% | 13.4% | 5.0% | .306 | 5.85 | 15.7% | 6.6% | 207 | -0.37 | 5.40 | 322 | 73 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2028 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 73 |
| Parker Smith R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 132 | 72 |
| Shane McCarthy R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.81 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 5.1% | .240 | 8.89 | 14.3% | 3.9% | 18 | +3.08 | 2.07 | 117 | 72 |
| Evan Yates R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.51 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 169 | 71 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 71 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 4.3% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 373 | 71 |
| Chris McElvain R 2026 · 6.60 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.60 | 14.8% | 13.3% | 5.6% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 287 | 71 |
| Nick Belzer R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.55 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 112 | 71 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 158 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 1.54 | 5.39 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |