Adam Mazur
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA5.56
FIP5.11
xFIP5.22
SIERA5.28
K%18.7%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%10.8%
IP130
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
STUF4040
CTRL3535
CMD2525
K†4545
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p1013.7%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
SL (41%)
SI (16%)
CU (11%)
CH-1.7 (8%)
FB-3.3 (40%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 24 | 18 | 96 | 394 | 90 | 17 | 5 | 18.0% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 2.81 | 3.17 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 27 | 27 | 127 | 541 | 114 | 39 | 18 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 5.46 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 28 | 25 | 137 | 589 | 119 | 42 | 25 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.46 | 5.32 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 6.02 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 137 | 579 | 108 | 57 | 22 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 5.49 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 140 | 592 | 112 | 58 | 22 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 5.26 | 5.15 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 113 | 58 | 22 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 5.17 | 5.14 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 137 | 578 | 108 | 56 | 22 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 5.17 | 5.19 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 102 | 55 | 21 | 18.1% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 5.24 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 128 | 541 | 95 | 54 | 21 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 5.33 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 88 | 53 | 20 | 16.9% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.43 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 81 | 51 | 20 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 5.55 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 112 | 471 | 73 | 50 | 19 | 15.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 5.68 | 5.77 | -0.6 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 66 | 48 | 19 | 14.8% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 5.82 | 5.92 | -0.7 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 58 | 46 | 18 | 14.0% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 5.98 | 6.08 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 79 | 70 | 360 | 1524 | 279 | 103 | 57 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 4.37 | 4.47 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 39 | 200 | 846 | 155 | 57 | 32 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 4.37 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Mazur (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.35 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 3.8% | — | 5.17 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 417 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 86 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.09 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.78 | 2.67 | 102 | 86 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 83 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.22 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 143 | 83 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.65 | 3.22 | 145 | 82 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 82 |
| Hagen Danner R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.22 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.0% | .295 | 4.33 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 56 | +0.11 | 3.49 | 155 | 82 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 81 |
| Josh Hejka R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.8% | 2.9% | .363 | 3.93 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 77 | -0.74 | 2.91 | 166 | 81 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .273 | 2.95 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -2.21 | 2.59 | 302 | 81 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.42 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 134 | 80 |
| Adrian Garza R 2028 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 14.9% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .360 | 4.17 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 84 | -1.31 | 3.95 | 229 | 80 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.34 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .294 | 5.62 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.28 | 2.60 | 198 | 80 |
| David Holman R 2028 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 80 |
| Luis Eusebio R 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.92 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 131 | 79 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 145 | 79 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.97 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .293 | 7.35 | 17.3% | -10.8% | 11 | +2.38 | 4.61 | 194 | 79 |
| Jake Dunning R 2027 · 5.59 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.59 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .354 | 4.30 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.29 | 4.20 | 120 | 79 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .309 | 4.63 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.36 | 4.27 | 328 | 79 |
| Zach Barnes R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.02 | 15.3% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .350 | 5.75 | 13.3% | -10.1% | 14 | +0.73 | 4.96 | 145 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.