Adam Mazur — OGILVIE

Adam Mazur P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA peak 1.1 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.46

FIP5.38

K%16.7%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p1013.7%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

SL (41%)

SI (16%)

CU (11%)

CH-1.7 (8%)

FB-3.3 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	96	394	90	17	5	75%	4.0	18.0%	4.9%	13.2%	1.9%	2.81	3.22	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	96	394	90	17	5	75%	4.0	18.0%	4.9%	13.2%	1.9%	2.81	3.22	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	96	394	90	17	5	75%	4.0	22.8%	4.3%	18.5%	1.3%	2.81	2.43	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	127	541	114	39	18	100%	4.7	18.1%	7.1%	11.0%	3.7%	5.46	4.52	+0.6
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	127	541	114	39	18	100%	4.7	18.1%	7.1%	11.0%	3.7%	5.46	4.52	+0.6
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	127	541	114	39	18	100%	4.7	21.1%	7.2%	13.9%	3.3%	5.46	4.07	+1.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	137	589	119	42	25	89%	4.9	17.3%	6.6%	10.7%	5.1%	4.46	5.25	-0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	137	589	119	42	25	89%	4.9	17.3%	6.6%	10.7%	5.1%	4.46	5.25	-0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	137	589	119	42	25	89%	4.9	20.2%	7.1%	13.1%	4.2%	4.46	4.65	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	14	64	297	41	33	10	100%	4.5	13.8%	11.1%	2.7%	3.4%	6.22	5.41	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	MIA	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	16.7%	9.6%	7.1%	3.8%	5.46	5.38	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	174	736	129	69	28	100%	6.0	17.6%	9.3%	8.2%	3.7%	5.28	5.23	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	175	739	132	69	28	100%	6.0	17.9%	9.3%	8.6%	3.7%	5.20	5.20	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	170	717	129	67	27	100%	6.1	18.0%	9.3%	8.6%	3.8%	5.20	5.23	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	162	685	120	65	27	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.5%	8.0%	3.9%	5.29	5.37	-0.9
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	152	644	108	63	27	100%	6.1	16.8%	9.8%	7.0%	4.1%	5.46	5.58	-1.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	118	498	88	46	19	100%	5.9	17.6%	9.3%	8.2%	3.7%	5.28	5.23	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	137	578	103	54	22	100%	6.0	17.9%	9.3%	8.6%	3.7%	5.20	5.20	-0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	144	608	109	57	23	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.3%	8.6%	3.8%	5.20	5.23	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	142	600	105	57	24	100%	5.9	17.5%	9.5%	8.0%	3.9%	5.29	5.37	-0.7
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	137	578	97	57	24	100%	6.0	16.8%	9.8%	7.0%	4.1%	5.46	5.58	-1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	127	741	3158	543	304	121	100%	5.8	17.2%	9.6%	7.6%	3.8%	5.37	4.97	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	852	147	82	33	100%	5.8	17.2%	9.6%	7.6%	3.8%	5.37	4.97	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		79	70	360	1524	271	96	57	89%	4.6	17.8%	6.3%	11.4%	3.8%	4.37	4.47	-4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	39	200	846	150	54	32	89%	4.6	17.8%	6.3%	11.4%	3.8%	4.37	4.47	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Mazur (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	16.7%	9.6%	3.8%	—	5.22	17.8%	8.5%	519	-0.16	—	—	—
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	78
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	78
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	77
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	76
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	76
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	76
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	75
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	74
Matthew DeRosier R 2018 · 5.67 FIP	24	SP-	5.67	15.1%	9.1%	4.9%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	200	74
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	74
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	74
Spencer Jones R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	24	SP	5.49	14.9%	8.9%	4.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	171	74
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	74
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	73
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	73
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	73
Nick Belzer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	12.8%	8.6%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	112	72
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	72
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	72
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	165	17.4%	9.5%	1.49	5.31
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36