Boston Smith — OGILVIE

Boston SmithC Winston-Salem Dash

Age 23 L/R 5'10" / 195 lbs A+ HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION286 act + 190 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†112

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .318 / .397

PA190

HR8

SB5

K%32

BB%12

BABIP282

ISO183

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 69

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT29

scouting grade only

POWER69

scouting grade only

EYE76

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.5	$21M	+$20M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.4	$19M	+$18M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.2	$16M	+$16M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+3.0	$14M	+$11M
2034	Arb-2	$9M	+2.7	$12M	+$8M
2035	Arb-3	$11M	+2.3	$9M	+$5M
Totals		$28M		$91M	+$78M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	CWS	—	286	244	55	4	3	15	36	110	3	9	4	225	332	451	783	225	328	38	13	337	116	+5	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.9
YTD	23	A+	CWS	—	286	223	64	5	3	18	57	82	3	9	4	287	438	578	1.017	291	365	29	20	437	193	+30	+0	+0	+5	+8	4.4
ROS	23	A+	CWS	0%	190	163	35	4	1	8	23	61	2	5	2	214	318	397	715	183	292	32	12	332	112	+3	+0	+0	+3	+5	1.2
ROS	23	MLB	CWS	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						292	0	0	326	108	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	A+	CWS	—	287	245	55	4	3	15	36	110	3	9	4	224	331	449	780	224	325	38	13	336	116	+5	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.9
TOT	23	A+	CWS	—	476	407	90	8	4	23	59	171	5	14	6	221	327	429	756	209	308	36	12	335	114	+8	+0	+0	+9	+14	3.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CWS	45%	520	447	100	13	3	23	63	165	5	11	4	224	326	421	747	197	294	32	12	334	114	+8	+1	+0	+9	+15	3.3
2028	25	MLB	CWS	66%	520	448	102	14	3	23	62	161	5	11	4	228	328	426	754	199	295	31	12	336	116	+9	+1	+0	+9	+15	3.4
2029	26	MLB	CWS	76%	520	449	104	14	3	24	61	159	5	11	4	232	330	437	767	205	295	31	12	338	117	+10	+1	+0	+9	+15	3.5
2030	27	MLB	CWS	78%	520	448	103	14	3	23	62	158	5	12	4	230	330	429	759	199	294	30	12	338	117	+10	+1	+0	+9	+15	3.5
2031	28	MLB	CWS	79%	520	448	102	14	3	23	62	159	5	11	4	228	328	426	754	199	294	31	12	337	116	+9	+1	-1	+9	+15	3.4
2032	29	MLB	CWS	78%	520	448	102	14	3	23	62	160	5	11	4	228	328	426	754	199	293	31	12	335	114	+8	+1	-1	+9	+15	3.2
2033	30	MLB	CWS	77%	520	448	101	13	3	23	62	161	5	11	4	225	326	422	748	196	291	31	12	332	112	+7	+1	-2	+9	+15	3.0
2034	31	MLB	CWS	77%	504	433	97	13	3	22	61	158	5	10	4	224	327	420	747	196	288	31	12	328	109	+5	+0	-3	+9	+14	2.7
2035	32	MLB	CWS	77%	489	423	92	12	3	20	59	155	4	9	3	217	319	402	721	184	285	32	12	322	105	+3	+1	-4	+9	+14	2.3
2036	33	MLB	CWS	77%	473	410	88	11	3	19	56	152	4	9	3	215	315	395	710	180	281	32	12	316	100	-0	+1	-4	+8	+13	1.9
2037	34	MLB	CWS	72%	437	378	77	9	2	17	52	143	4	7	3	204	306	373	679	169	275	33	12	307	93	-3	+0	-5	+8	+12	1.2
2038	35	MLB	CWS	68%	376	326	65	7	2	14	44	126	3	6	2	199	300	362	662	163	269	34	12	298	86	-6	+0	-6	+7	+11	0.6
2027	24	MLB	CWS	45%	235	202	47	6	2	11	29	74	2	5	2	233	335	446	780	213	295	31	12	329	110	+3	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.4
2028	25	MLB	CWS	66%	343	296	68	9	2	16	41	106	3	7	3	230	329	436	765	206	296	31	12	331	112	+4	+0	+0	+6	+10	2.1
2029	26	MLB	CWS	76%	394	340	78	11	2	18	47	120	4	9	3	229	330	432	762	203	296	30	12	333	113	+6	+1	+0	+7	+11	2.5
2030	27	MLB	CWS	78%	407	352	82	11	3	19	48	124	4	9	3	233	332	443	775	210	295	30	12	332	113	+6	+1	+0	+7	+12	2.6
2031	28	MLB	CWS	79%	413	357	82	11	2	19	49	126	4	9	3	230	329	431	761	202	295	31	12	331	112	+6	+1	-1	+7	+12	2.5
2032	29	MLB	CWS	78%	406	350	80	11	2	18	49	125	4	9	3	229	330	426	756	197	294	31	12	330	110	+5	+1	-1	+7	+12	2.3
2033	30	MLB	CWS	77%	403	348	79	11	2	18	48	125	4	8	3	227	328	425	753	198	292	31	12	327	108	+4	+0	-2	+7	+11	2.2
2034	31	MLB	CWS	77%	388	334	75	10	2	17	47	121	4	8	3	225	327	419	746	195	289	31	12	323	105	+2	+0	-2	+7	+11	1.9
2035	32	MLB	CWS	77%	375	324	71	9	2	16	45	119	3	7	3	219	320	407	727	188	286	32	12	318	101	+1	+0	-3	+7	+11	1.6
2036	33	MLB	CWS	77%	362	313	67	8	2	15	43	116	3	7	2	214	315	396	711	182	281	32	12	311	96	-2	+1	-3	+6	+10	1.3
2037	34	MLB	CWS	72%	315	272	57	7	2	12	37	103	3	5	2	210	311	382	693	173	276	33	12	303	90	-4	+0	-4	+6	+9	0.8
2038	35	MLB	CWS	68%	254	220	44	5	1	10	30	85	2	4	2	200	302	368	670	168	269	33	12	294	83	-5	+0	-4	+5	+7	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4296	3709	830	109	24	189	513	1344	40	87	32	224	324	419	743	195	292	31	12	323	105	+25	+5	-19	+77	+122	21.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	126	16	4	29	78	203	6	13	5	225	326	422	748	198	292	31	12	323	105	+4	+1	-3	+12	+18	3.2
Career	—			—	6109	5269	1168	152	35	262	729	1918	57	124	45	222	323	413	736	191	290	31	12	328	109	+63	+7	-25	+109	+173	33.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	124	16	4	28	78	204	6	13	5	221	323	414	737	193	288	31	12	328	109	+7	+1	-3	+12	+18	3.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Variteklast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,047 PA	12	5,047	166	22	255	343	431	+61	+15	33.1	30.8
	/162	664	22	3	255	343	431	+8.0	+1.9	4.4	pk7: 28
#2Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	11	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
	/162	664	22	1	250	313	411	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#3Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	10	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
	/162	664	29	10	242	319	448	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,297	185	87	223	320	416	+68	+36	24.0	20.8
	/162	664	29	13	223	320	416	+10.5	+5.6	3.7	pk7: 17
#4Evan Gattislast yr '18 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,662 PA	6	2,662	139	3	248	300	476	+30	+20	17.0	17.0
	/162	664	35	1	248	300	476	+7.6	+4.9	4.2	pk7: 17
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Boston Smith (OGILVIE)	23	24→29	64→69	51→56	76	221/327/429	209	308	23	14	36%	12%	114	+3.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→44	52→55	54→50	48	206/295/372	166	284	19	16	33%	10%	88	+0.9	216/301/395	179	269	22	10	27%	10%	96	+1.5	207/293/388	181	246	23	6	26%	10%	89	+0.7
●Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	38→48	55	47→50	52	202/308/386	184	272	23	10	33%	12%	98	+1.6	232/313/396	164	290	19	10	26%	10%	101	+1.8	261/339/417	156	319	16	5	22%	10%	113	+1.9
✕Nathan Hickey 2023 · A	23	44→37	56→55	43→40	50	222/321/413	191	310	23	3	34%	12%	109	+2.4	199/278/356	157	283	19	4	34%	9%	76	+0.1	183/259/329	147	254	18	3	34%	9%	59	-0.9
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43	52→55	57→50	48	219/304/387	168	295	20	14	31%	10%	95	+1.4	216/290/387	171	266	20	8	26%	8%	89	+1.0	209/283/386	177	247	22	5	25%	8%	84	+0.5
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/434	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	114	+2.7	222/277/341	119	269	13	6	22%	7%	71	-0.3	197/240/273	76	241	5	5	20%	5%	33	-0.7
●Kyle Manzardo 2023 · AA	23	49→42	57→60	45→40	50	257/328/460	203	292	25	4	22%	9%	124	+3.4	228/303/419	191	269	23	3	24%	9%	103	+1.9	222/306/416	194	268	25	2	27%	9%	102	+1.4
●Trent Grisham 2020 · MLB	23	42→50	51→60	53→55	51	219/303/381	162	278	19	13	28%	10%	92	+1.2	235/321/419	184	289	21	14	25%	10%	110	+2.4	221/330/419	198	244	27	6	22%	13%	112	+1.6
●Adam Duvall 2012 · A	23	44	59→70	44→45	45	240/306/460	220	280	27	4	25%	7%	115	+2.8	223/274/420	197	260	26	4	25%	6%	92	+1.2	230/290/515	285	247	44	3	29%	6%	121	+2.4
●Travis Shaw 2013 · AA	23	43→53	51→60	49→45	46	219/292/386	167	284	18	9	29%	8%	90	+1.0	221/288/372	151	280	17	6	26%	8%	84	+0.6	251/334/473	222	282	28	7	22%	11%	123	+3.2
●Pedro Álvarez 2010 · AA	23	47→46	56→60	45	42	240/296/430	190	320	24	4	32%	8%	103	+1.9	233/300/413	180	315	22	3	31%	9%	100	+1.7	238/310/455	217	291	31	4	29%	9%	108	+2.1
●Triston Casas 2023 · MLB	23	44→48	55→60	48→40	53	232/315/417	185	272	23	6	24%	10%	108	+2.3	239/332/437	198	296	25	3	27%	12%	119	+3.1	237/337/441	205	292	27	0	27%	13%	116	+1.4
✕Kevin Cornelius 2017 · A	24	46	58→65	48→40	45	241/310/449	208	322	26	4	33%	9%	114	+2.7	211/263/348	137	341	15	5	40%	6%	67	-0.5	149/180/247	98	270	13	0	49%	4%	2	-1.2
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	44→48	52→60	45	49	231/306/395	163	263	22	7	22%	8%	98	+1.6	237/300/420	183	287	26	5	27%	7%	102	+1.9	232/287/415	183	287	28	2	29%	6%	94	+0.9
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	44	49→60	50→30	46	225/307/367	143	280	17	5	26%	7%	92	+1.2	227/314/397	170	274	21	5	24%	9%	102	+1.9	222/338/429	208	264	26	2	26%	12%	118	+1.5
✕Daulton Varsho 2020 · AA	24	48→49	52→60	55→50	46	248/306/417	168	283	20	19	20%	6%	103	+1.9	237/303/426	189	275	23	15	23%	8%	105	+2.1	227/294/419	192	260	25	15	23%	8%	96	+1.3
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	57→60	45→50	44	212/294/409	197	278	26	6	33%	8%	97	+1.5	245/312/431	186	310	22	9	27%	7%	110	+2.4	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Chris Williams 2019 · A	22	38→30	53→60	47→40	47	207/281/370	163	255	22	4	29%	9%	82	+0.5	179/271/314	135	283	15	4	38%	11%	63	-0.9	179/261/368	189	250	28	4	40%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Jonny DeLuca 2023 · AA	25	40→38	58→60	56→55	46	219/283/421	202	243	26	15	23%	7%	95	+1.4	228/293/391	163	266	18	19	21%	7%	92	+1.2	228/294/377	150	266	16	23	21%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→47	56→60	38→45	47	220/314/415	194	293	24	3	32%	10%	107	+2.2	228/302/388	160	306	18	7	30%	8%	95	+1.4	229/300/383	153	297	17	7	27%	7%	90	+0.6
●Edouard Julien 2022 · A	23	46→54	51→50	54→50	53	213/328/379	166	343	18	20	38%	14%	104	+2.0	233/339/388	155	354	18	14	34%	13%	110	+2.4	230/339/379	149	341	18	11	34%	13%	105	+1.9