Boston Smith — OGILVIE

Boston SmithC Arkansas Travelers

Age 23 L/R 5'10" / 195 lbs AA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION488 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†113

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP283

ISO205

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$106M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 69

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER69

scouting grade only

EYE73

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$16M	+$15M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$15M	+$14M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Arb-1	$7M	+2.3	$12M	+$8M
2033	Arb-2	$10M	+2.2	$10M	+$5M
2034	Arb-3	$13M	+1.9	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$33M		$75M	+$59M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	23	AA MLE	SEA	—	488	416	88	9	4	25	63	185	6	11	6	212	324	433	756	221	301	38	13	326	107	+4	-0	+0	+9	+11	2.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A RAW	SEA	—	34	30	8	3	0	0	3	12	1	1	0	267	353	367	720	100	444	35	9	330	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ RAW	SEA	—	216	163	47	2	3	14	48	57	2	7	3	288	455	595	1.050	307	347	26	22	448	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	SEA	—	238	190	48	6	1	17	45	75	3	3	3	253	403	563	967	311	316	32	19	420	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	SEA	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		286	33	11	335	113	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
TOT	23	AA MLE	SEA	—	497	424	89	9	4	25	64	188	6	11	6	210	322	427	749	217	299	38	13	326	107	+4	-0	+0	+9	+11	2.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SEA	46%	520	444	98	13	3	25	66	172	5	9	4	221	328	432	761	212	291	33	13	337	115	+9	+0	+0	+9	+11	3.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	66%	520	445	100	14	3	25	65	167	5	10	5	225	330	438	768	213	291	32	12	341	117	+10	+0	+0	+9	+11	3.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	76%	520	445	102	14	3	26	64	164	6	10	5	229	334	449	783	220	291	32	12	343	118	+11	+0	+0	+9	+11	3.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	78%	520	445	102	14	3	26	64	163	6	10	5	229	334	449	783	220	291	31	12	343	118	+11	+0	+0	+9	+11	3.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	79%	520	446	101	14	3	25	64	164	5	10	5	226	330	439	770	213	290	32	12	342	117	+11	+0	-1	+9	+11	3.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	SEA	78%	520	445	101	14	3	25	65	165	5	10	5	227	332	440	772	213	289	32	12	340	116	+10	+0	-1	+9	+11	3.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	SEA	77%	520	445	99	13	3	25	65	166	5	10	4	222	328	434	762	211	288	32	12	337	114	+9	+0	-2	+9	+11	2.8
2034	31	MLB MLE	SEA	77%	504	431	95	13	2	24	63	163	5	9	4	220	327	427	754	206	285	32	12	333	111	+7	+0	-3	+9	+11	2.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	SEA	77%	489	420	90	12	2	22	61	160	5	8	4	214	321	410	731	195	281	33	12	327	108	+4	+0	-4	+9	+11	2.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	SEA	83%	473	406	85	11	2	21	59	157	5	8	3	209	317	401	718	192	277	33	12	321	103	+2	+0	-4	+8	+10	1.7
2037	34	MLB MLE	SEA	79%	437	376	76	9	2	19	54	148	4	7	3	202	309	388	697	186	271	34	12	312	97	-1	+0	-5	+8	+9	1.1
2038	35	MLB MLE	SEA	74%	376	324	63	7	2	15	46	130	3	5	2	194	300	367	668	173	265	35	12	303	91	-4	+0	-6	+7	+8	0.5
2039	36	MLB MLE	SEA	65%	312	268	50	5	1	12	38	110	3	4	2	187	294	347	642	160	258	35	12	292	84	-6	+0	-6	+6	+7	0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	SEA	46%	238	204	44	6	1	11	30	79	2	4	2	216	322	417	739	201	288	33	13	326	115	+4	+0	+0	+4	+5	1.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	66%	345	295	66	9	2	16	43	111	4	7	3	224	330	431	761	207	288	32	12	329	117	+7	+0	+0	+6	+7	2.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	76%	395	340	76	10	2	19	48	125	4	8	4	224	327	432	759	209	288	32	12	331	118	+9	+0	+0	+7	+9	2.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	78%	407	350	78	11	2	19	50	128	4	8	4	223	327	429	755	206	288	31	12	331	118	+9	+0	+0	+7	+9	2.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	79%	413	355	80	11	2	20	51	130	4	8	4	225	329	437	766	211	288	31	12	330	117	+8	+0	-1	+7	+9	2.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	SEA	78%	407	349	78	11	2	19	51	129	4	8	4	223	329	430	759	206	286	32	13	328	116	+8	+0	-1	+7	+9	2.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	SEA	77%	403	346	76	10	2	19	50	129	4	7	3	220	325	425	750	205	285	32	12	326	114	+7	+0	-2	+7	+9	2.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	SEA	77%	388	333	73	10	2	18	48	125	4	7	3	219	325	423	748	204	282	32	12	322	111	+5	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.9
2035	32	MLB CTX	SEA	77%	375	321	69	9	2	17	47	123	4	6	3	215	323	414	737	199	279	33	13	316	108	+3	+0	-3	+7	+8	1.6
2036	33	MLB CTX	SEA	83%	395	339	71	9	2	17	49	131	4	6	3	209	316	398	715	189	274	33	12	310	103	+1	+0	-4	+7	+9	1.4
2037	34	MLB CTX	SEA	79%	345	297	59	7	2	14	42	117	3	5	2	199	304	377	681	178	268	34	12	302	97	-1	+0	-4	+6	+7	0.9
2038	35	MLB CTX	SEA	74%	280	241	46	5	1	11	34	97	3	4	2	191	299	357	655	166	262	35	12	293	91	-3	+0	-4	+5	+6	0.4
2039	36	MLB CTX	SEA	65%	204	175	33	3	1	8	25	72	2	3	1	189	297	354	651	166	256	35	12	283	84	-4	+0	-4	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4595	3945	849	111	23	208	568	1496	46	81	38	215	321	413	734	198	283	33	12	319	110	+53	+1	-24	+82	+100	21.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	558	120	16	3	29	80	212	7	11	5	215	321	410	731	195	284	33	12	319	110	+8	+0	-3	+12	+14	3.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6240	5348	1163	153	32	290	775	2032	62	110	51	217	323	421	744	203	285	33	12	331	110	+73	+2	-31	+111	+135	29.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	557	121	16	3	30	81	212	6	11	5	217	323	418	741	201	285	33	12	331	110	+8	+0	-3	+12	+14	3.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kyle Seagerlast yr '21 career totals — 11 seasons, 6,204 PA	9.3	6,204	242	55	251	321	442	+22	+55	35.4	32.4
/162	664	26	6	+2.4	+5.8	3.8	pk7: 29
#2Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	6.6	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#3Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	7.4	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
/162	664	29	10	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.9	4,601	214	82	219	321	423	+65	+40	25.8	21.9
/162	664	31	12	+9.4	+5.8	3.7	pk7: 18
#4Evan Gattislast yr '18 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,662 PA	4.0	2,662	139	3	248	300	476	+30	+20	17.0	17.0
/162	664	35	1	+7.6	+4.9	4.2	pk7: 17
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Boston Smith (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	64→69	48→53	73	214/323/425	211	286	15	7	34%	13%	113	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Joey Gallo 2018 · MLB	24	34→35	66→70	51→45	48	200/304/455	255	281	35	7	40%	12%	112	+2.2	215/326/489	274	284	37	6	36%	13%	127	+3.3	203/345/459	256	265	35	6	36%	17%	120	+1.8
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/434	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	112	+2.2	220/275/335	115	265	12	6	21%	7%	72	-0.7	193/235/261	68	234	4	5	19%	5%	36	-0.8
✕Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	37→47	52→55	47→50	52	198/303/366	168	267	21	10	32%	12%	91	+0.7	228/310/388	160	285	18	10	25%	10%	98	+1.2	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
✕Kevin Cornelius 2017 · A	24	46	57→65	48→40	45	238/308/436	197	320	25	4	32%	9%	108	+1.9	211/263/340	129	333	14	5	38%	6%	69	-0.9	156/185/243	87	270	10	0	45%	4%	14	-1.2
●Miguel Sanó 2015 · AA	22	41→51	59→70	50→45	44	220/297/435	215	300	27	8	35%	9%	105	+1.7	242/328/460	218	341	28	4	34%	11%	121	+2.9	243/334/470	227	339	30	2	35%	11%	122	+2.7
✕Nathan Hickey 2023 · A	23	43→39	54→50	43→40	50	221/318/403	183	306	22	3	33%	11%	105	+1.7	199/280/347	148	284	17	4	34%	9%	78	-0.3	183/261/317	134	259	15	3	34%	9%	62	-1.1
✕Dalton Rushing 2023 · A	22	56→40	55	49→30	49	278/360/471	193	349	21	7	25%	9%	135	+3.9	222/321/392	170	294	20	3	30%	10%	103	+1.6	228/310/401	173	292	23	1	29%	9%	100	+0.8
●Gleyber Torres 2020 · MLB	23	50→53	60	45→50	49	267/330/480	213	303	29	7	23%	8%	126	+3.2	257/327/422	165	301	20	10	21%	9%	112	+2.2	258/344/398	139	293	17	6	17%	11%	111	+2.3
✕Kyle Manzardo 2023 · AA	23	50→43	57→60	44→40	51	259/331/460	200	296	24	4	22%	9%	122	+2.9	225/301/409	184	266	22	3	24%	9%	99	+1.3	222/304/411	189	270	24	2	27%	9%	100	+1.1
★Cal Raleigh 2021 · AA	24	39→42	62→70	49→45	41	227/277/448	221	268	32	6	30%	6%	100	+1.3	229/287/441	212	276	26	4	27%	7%	102	+1.5	235/330/504	269	260	40	6	27%	12%	125	+3.4
●Trent Grisham 2021 · MLB	24	46→49	54→60	54→55	53	237/322/418	182	284	21	14	24%	11%	109	+2.0	221/313/388	167	277	18	13	25%	11%	99	+1.3	212/319/405	193	232	27	6	22%	13%	104	+1.1
✕Michael McKenry 2008 · A	23	46→48	54→55	41→40	49	238/309/421	183	282	21	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	223/291/376	153	278	17	4	25%	8%	88	+0.4	251/325/430	179	297	23	2	23%	9%	110	+0.8
★Adam Dunn 2004 · MLB	24	44→51	61→70	48→50	65	238/373/469	232	282	29	13	26%	16%	139	+4.2	250/377/523	273	297	35	7	27%	16%	152	+5.1	248/380/531	283	291	37	5	27%	16%	144	+5.2
●Andy Pages 2022 · A	21	41→51	58→55	45→50	46	221/312/425	204	289	27	6	32%	9%	108	+1.9	220/299/395	175	286	20	7	29%	8%	96	+1.0	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
✕Andy Wilson 2006 · A	25	45→43	56→60	46→45	48	238/298/430	192	274	25	7	24%	8%	103	+1.5	217/274/340	123	286	13	5	28%	7%	73	-0.6	193/248/278	85	268	8	0	30%	6%	47	-1.5
✕Francisco Alvarez 2023 · AAA	21	44→45	58→60	43→40	47	233/313/435	202	294	27	4	30%	9%	110	+2.1	231/305/429	198	282	27	4	28%	8%	106	+1.8	229/304/430	202	273	28	2	27%	9%	104	+1.1
★Kyle Schwarber 2017 · MLB	24	49→48	58→70	45	52	253/338/459	206	319	27	6	28%	11%	124	+3.1	238/337/486	248	286	34	4	29%	12%	130	+3.5	233/355/495	262	275	38	5	29%	15%	133	+4.3
✕Jon Still 2008 · A	23	47→46	54→55	45→30	55	242/336/422	180	296	21	3	25%	12%	115	+2.4	214/283/374	160	279	18	2	29%	8%	84	+0.2	198/262/355	157	258	18	1	30%	7%	71	-0.7
●Stephen Drew 2006 · AA	23	50→57	55	43→45	49	259/324/456	196	304	22	7	22%	8%	118	+2.7	256/310/417	161	295	15	6	18%	7%	104	+1.6	271/331/452	181	305	15	6	16%	8%	114	+2.5
●Cyle Hankerd 2007 · A	22	50→49	63→60	48→45	49	272/346/508	236	291	32	7	20%	7%	139	+4.2	231/287/339	108	272	10	3	18%	5%	78	-0.3	255/333/433	178	299	21	2	21%	6%	115	+1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps