Owen Ayers

C Knoxville Smokies
Age 26 S/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP40OGV rank#175ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423ACHC70.190/.271/.3021123—.154/.214/.246
202524A/INTL2 orgs362.269/.394/.4589898—.184/.260/.324
202625AAA/AA/A+CHC538.289/.406/.5262513110—.246/.335/.433
2027PROJMLE26MLBCHC3.232/.318/.403001030.0
2028PROJ37% MLB27MLBCHC161.231/.317/.401521030.8
2029PROJ56% MLB28MLBCHC248.230/.315/.397831011.1
Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$2M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%87
Chase%77
Z-Con%62
K%58
Speed57
Whiff%52
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 8.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 78%
CompsChance Sisco (age 26) · Luis Urías (age 26) · Max Moroff (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†103
AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .318 / .403
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%10
BABIP294
ISO162
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +0.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+1BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.90+0.9WAR
0.00.81.60.00.81.11.11.00.80.227282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$27M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.8$3M+$2M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.1$8M+$7M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.1$7M+$6M
2031Arb-1$4M+1.0$6M+$4M
2032Arb-2$5M+0.8$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$2M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $6M $26M +$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202423 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 7063 12401 6141 10 190271302573 111229 209 264 23 — — — — — —
202524 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 273231 551456 31637 70 238346420766 182295 2311 339 57 — — — — — —
202524 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 8966 25503 22101 10 3795395911.130 212415 1125 496 222 — — — — — —
202625 AAAIowa Cubs — 208174 431003 32451 70 247367356723 109315 2215 333 74 — — — — — —
202625 AAKnoxville Smokies — 278230 7016116 42694 31 3044205911.012 287367 2515 436 124 — — — — — —
202625 A+South Bend Cubs — 5243 16306 8111 30 3724818601.341 488385 2115 557 174 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202423 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 7065 10301 4191 10 154214246460 92202 276 202 23 — — — — — —
202524 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 273244 451145 18907 70 184260324584 139252 337 253 57 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 208183 40902 23541 70 219309301610 82293 2611 277 74 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 278244 6315113 28844 31 258344488832 230325 3010 352 124 — — — — — —
202625 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 5245 13205 6141 30 2893856671.051 378318 2712 426 174 — — — — — —
202423 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 7065 10301 4191 10 154214246460 92200 276 202 23 — — — — — —
202423 A RAWMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 7063 12401 6141 10 190271302573 111229 209 264 23 — — — — — —
202524 A MLE2 teams — 362326 601556 241198 80 184257316573 132263 337 253 57 — — — — — —
202524 A RAW2 teams — 362297 801959 53738 80 269394458852 189324 2015 377 57 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLE3 teams — 538473 11626120 561526 131 245333431764 186316 2810 330 110 — — — — — —
202625 AA RAW3 teams — 538447 12929125 821256 131 289406526931 237347 2315 408 110 — — — — — —
202423 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 7065 10301 4191 10 154214246460 92202 276 202 23 — — — — — —
202524 A MLE2 teams — 362327 601556 241198 80 183257315572 131252 337 253 57 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLE3 teams — 538471 11626120 561526 131 246333433766 187312 2810 330 110 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 7065 10301 4191 10 154214246460 92202 276 202 23 — — — — — —
202524 A MLE2 teams — 362327 601556 241198 80 183257315572 131252 337 253 57 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLE3 teams — 538471 11626120 561526 131 246333433766 187312 2810 330 110 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLECHC 2% 380335 7716113 381044 61 231317404721 174291 2710 321 103 +2 +1 +1 +7 +8 0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXCHC 2% 33 0000 010 00 232318403721 172294 330 321 103 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLECHC 37% 432382 8819115 431184 71 230316402718 171290 2710 320 103 +1 +1 +1 +8 +9 2.1
202928 MLB MLECHC 56% 445394 9019115 441214 61 229314397712 168289 2710 317 101 +0 +1 +1 +8 +10 2.0
203029 MLB MLECHC 62% 445394 8919114 441224 50 228312392703 164288 2710 314 99 -1 +1 -0 +8 +10 1.8
203130 MLB MLECHC 66% 445395 8919114 431224 40 225308384693 159286 2710 310 96 -2 +1 -1 +8 +10 1.6
203231 MLB MLECHC 69% 426378 8417113 411174 20 222304376680 153283 2710 304 92 -4 +0 -1 +8 +9 1.2
203332 MLB MLECHC 70% 222197 42906 21622 10 217298362660 146279 289 297 87 -3 +0 -3 +4 +5 0.3
202827 MLB CTXCHC 37% 161142 33715 16442 20 231317401718 170293 2710 320 103 +0 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.8
202928 MLB CTXCHC 56% 248219 511118 25682 30 230315397712 166292 2710 317 101 +0 +1 +0 +4 +5 1.1
203029 MLB CTXCHC 62% 278246 571219 27763 30 229312391703 162291 2710 314 99 -0 +1 -0 +5 +6 1.1
203130 MLB CTXCHC 66% 295261 601319 29813 20 226309384693 157289 2710 310 96 -2 +0 -0 +5 +6 1.0
203231 MLB CTXCHC 69% 292259 571218 28803 10 223305375680 152286 2710 304 92 -3 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.8
203332 MLB CTXCHC 70% 155138 29604 15431 10 218298362660 144281 2810 297 87 -2 +0 -2 +3 +3 0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 14291265 28761543 14039214 120 227311385696 158292 2710 310 94 -6 +2 -3 +26 +31 5.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650575 13128220 641786 50 228312388699 160292 2710 310 94 -3 +1 -1 +12 +14 2.3
Career— MLE — 35403140 69915311109 33699539 503 223306382688 160287 289 307 94 -8 +5 -3 +46 +56 9.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650577 12828220 621837 91 222305381686 159286 2810 307 94 -2 +1 -1 +12 +14 2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 278 PAwOBA .427 → .352 (−74)K% 24.8% → 30.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.82%÷1.000×1.220——30.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.75%÷1.000×0.680—×0.99810.01%
HBP% /PA1.44%—×0.840—×0.9981.21%
Singles /BIP22.98%÷1.000×0.920×0.990×0.99820.89%
Doubles /BIP9.94%÷1.000×0.910×0.990×0.9988.93%
Triples /BIP0.62%÷1.000×0.880×0.990×0.9980.54%
Home runs /BIP9.94%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9987.93%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .427 → .352; ISO .287 → .239; BABIP .367 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 208 PAwOBA .327 → .277 (−50)K% 21.6% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.63%÷1.000×1.200——25.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.38%÷1.000×0.690—×1.03310.97%
HBP% /PA0.48%—×0.940—×1.0330.47%
Singles /BIP23.26%÷1.000×0.930×1.002×1.03322.38%
Doubles /BIP7.75%÷1.000×0.830×1.002×1.0336.66%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.002×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP2.33%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0331.68%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .327 → .277; ISO .109 → .088; BABIP .315 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 52 PAwOBA .542 → .426 (−116)K% 21.2% → 26.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.15%÷1.000×1.270——26.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.38%÷1.000×0.710—×0.97810.68%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.790—×0.9781.49%
Singles /BIP21.88%÷1.000×0.920—×0.97819.68%
Doubles /BIP9.38%÷1.000×0.810—×0.9787.43%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850—×0.9780.00%
Home runs /BIP18.75%÷1.000×0.800—×0.97814.67%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .542 → .426; ISO .488 → .379; BABIP .385 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 273 PAwOBA .334 → .253 (−80)K% 23.1% → 32.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.08%÷0.956×1.360——32.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.99%÷1.106×0.690—×0.9806.72%
HBP% /PA2.56%—×0.780—×0.9801.96%
Singles /BIP17.86%÷0.990×0.920×0.979×0.98015.93%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷0.968×0.830×0.979×0.9806.86%
Triples /BIP2.98%÷1.150×0.910×0.979×0.9802.26%
Home runs /BIP3.57%÷0.925×0.800—×0.9803.03%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .334 → .253; ISO .182 → .141; BABIP .295 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 70 PAwOBA .257 → .202 (−55)K% 20.0% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷0.985×1.360——27.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.57%÷1.007×0.690—×0.9905.82%
HBP% /PA1.43%—×0.780—×0.9901.10%
Singles /BIP14.29%÷0.997×0.920×0.998×0.99013.02%
Doubles /BIP8.16%÷0.986×0.830×0.998×0.9906.79%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×0.998×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP2.04%÷0.908×0.800—×0.9901.78%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .257 → .202; ISO .111 → .088; BABIP .229 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .