Owen Ayers — OGILVIE

Owen AyersC Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 S/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION330 act + 220 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†116

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .321 / .441

PA220

HR9

K%29

BB%9

BABIP309

ISO200

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT39

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.6	$25M	+$24M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.4	$22M	+$21M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.2	$19M	+$18M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+3.0	$16M	+$13M
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+2.7	$14M	+$9M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+2.3	$11M	+$6M
Totals		$28M		$106M	+$91M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	23	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	70	65	10	3	0	1	4	21	1	1	0	154	214	246	460	92	209	30	6	206	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	70	63	12	4	0	1	6	14	1	1	0	190	271	302	573	111	229	20	9	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	2 teams	—	362	329	61	15	4	8	21	130	8	8	0	185	251	328	580	143	272	36	6	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	2 teams	—	362	297	80	19	5	9	53	73	8	8	0	269	394	458	852	189	324	20	15	377	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	CHC	—	330	289	76	16	1	19	34	104	5	6	1	263	351	522	873	260	339	32	10	370	141	+15	+1	+0	+6	+9	3.2
YTD	25	AA	CHC	—	330	273	86	19	1	22	50	80	5	6	1	315	430	634	1.064	319	370	24	15	455	206	+40	+1	+0	+6	+9	5.7
ROS	25	AA	CHC	2%	220	195	47	10	1	9	20	64	3	4	1	241	321	441	762	200	303	29	9	337	116	+4	+0	+1	+4	+6	1.5
ROS	25	MLB	CHC	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						305	25	0	328	109	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	25	AA	CHC	—	334	293	76	16	1	19	34	105	5	6	1	259	346	515	862	256	333	31	10	369	141	+15	+1	+0	+6	+9	3.2
TOT	25	AA	CHC	—	550	484	123	26	2	28	54	168	8	10	2	254	339	490	828	236	326	31	10	356	131	+19	+1	+1	+10	+16	4.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	CHC	43%	520	461	111	23	2	22	47	151	7	7	1	241	320	443	763	202	303	29	9	336	115	+9	+1	+1	+9	+15	3.6
2028	27	MLB	CHC	59%	520	460	110	22	2	22	48	149	7	7	1	239	320	439	760	200	302	29	9	335	115	+9	+1	+1	+9	+15	3.6
2029	28	MLB	CHC	67%	520	460	110	22	2	21	48	148	7	7	1	239	320	433	753	193	301	28	9	334	114	+8	+1	+1	+9	+15	3.4
2030	29	MLB	CHC	69%	520	460	110	22	2	21	48	148	7	7	1	239	320	433	753	193	300	28	9	332	112	+7	+1	-0	+9	+15	3.2
2031	30	MLB	CHC	70%	520	460	109	22	2	21	48	150	7	6	1	237	318	430	749	193	299	29	9	329	110	+6	+1	-1	+9	+15	3.0
2032	31	MLB	CHC	71%	504	446	105	21	2	20	47	147	6	6	1	235	317	426	743	191	296	29	9	325	107	+4	+1	-2	+9	+14	2.7
2033	32	MLB	CHC	71%	489	435	100	20	2	19	45	144	6	5	1	230	311	416	727	186	292	29	9	319	102	+1	+1	-2	+9	+14	2.3
2034	33	MLB	CHC	72%	436	388	86	17	1	16	40	131	5	4	1	222	303	394	697	173	287	30	9	312	97	-2	+0	-3	+8	+12	1.6
2035	34	MLB	CHC	67%	357	317	69	13	1	13	33	109	4	3	1	218	299	388	687	170	281	31	9	302	90	-4	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.9
2036	35	MLB	CHC	63%	292	261	54	10	1	10	26	92	3	3	1	207	286	368	654	161	273	32	9	292	82	-6	+0	-5	+5	+8	0.3
2037	36	MLB	CHC	54%	147	131	26	4	0	5	13	47	2	1	0	198	281	344	624	145	266	32	9	281	73	-4	+0	-6	+3	+4	-0.4
2038	37	MLB	CHC	45%	93	84	16	3	0	3	8	31	1	1	0	190	269	333	602	143	258	33	9	269	64	-4	+0	-7	+2	+3	-0.6
2027	26	MLB	CHC	43%	224	199	49	10	1	10	20	65	3	3	1	246	324	457	782	211	305	29	9	328	109	+2	+0	+1	+4	+6	1.4
2028	27	MLB	CHC	59%	306	271	65	13	1	13	28	88	4	4	1	240	320	439	759	199	304	29	9	328	109	+3	+0	+1	+5	+9	1.9
2029	28	MLB	CHC	67%	348	308	74	15	1	15	32	99	5	5	1	240	322	442	763	201	303	28	9	326	108	+3	+1	+0	+6	+10	2.0
2030	29	MLB	CHC	69%	359	318	76	15	1	15	33	102	5	5	1	239	320	434	754	195	302	28	9	324	106	+2	+1	-0	+6	+10	2.0
2031	30	MLB	CHC	70%	365	323	77	16	1	15	34	105	5	4	1	238	320	433	754	195	300	29	9	321	104	+2	+0	-1	+7	+10	1.9
2032	31	MLB	CHC	71%	357	317	74	15	1	14	33	104	4	4	1	233	314	420	733	186	298	29	9	317	101	+0	+0	-1	+6	+10	1.6
2033	32	MLB	CHC	71%	349	310	70	14	1	13	32	103	4	4	1	226	306	403	710	177	294	30	9	312	97	-1	+0	-2	+6	+10	1.4
2034	33	MLB	CHC	72%	312	276	62	12	1	12	29	94	4	3	1	225	307	406	713	181	289	30	9	305	91	-3	+0	-2	+6	+9	0.9
2035	34	MLB	CHC	67%	239	212	47	9	1	9	22	73	3	2	0	222	304	401	705	179	282	31	9	295	84	-4	+0	-3	+4	+7	0.5
2036	35	MLB	CHC	63%	183	162	34	6	1	6	17	57	2	2	0	210	293	370	663	160	275	31	9	285	76	-5	+0	-3	+3	+5	0.1
2037	36	MLB	CHC	54%	79	71	14	2	0	3	7	25	1	1	0	197	278	352	631	155	267	32	9	274	68	-3	+0	-3	+1	+2	-0.2
2038	37	MLB	CHC	45%	41	37	7	1	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	189	268	297	566	108	259	32	10	262	59	-2	+0	-3	+1	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3166	2808	649	128	10	126	291	929	40	37	8	231	312	418	731	187	295	29	9	314	99	-5	+4	-16	+57	+90	13.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	133	26	2	26	60	191	8	8	2	231	312	418	729	187	295	29	9	314	99	-1	+1	-3	+12	+18	2.7
Career	—			—	5570	4952	1124	227	22	211	496	1662	74	70	11	227	307	410	716	183	294	30	9	316	100	+1	+10	-27	+99	+158	24.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	131	26	3	25	58	194	9	8	1	227	307	412	719	185	292	30	9	316	100	+0	+1	-3	+12	+18	2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	23	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	70	63	12	4	0	1	6	14	1	1	190	271	302	573	111	229	20	9	264	60	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	24	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	273	231	55	14	5	6	31	63	7	7	238	346	420	766	182	295	23	11	339	117	+5	+1	—	—	+8	1.5
2025	24	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	89	66	25	5	0	3	22	10	1	1	379	539	591	1.130	212	415	11	25	496	238	+14	+0	—	—	+3	1.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	9	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
#2Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	/162	664	23	11	249	308	437	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,167	123	36	231	308	417	+46	-8	15.6	14.5
	/162	664	26	8	231	308	417	+9.6	-1.7	3.3	pk7: 13
#5Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	8	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
	/162	664	24	1	254	313	425	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Owen Ayers (OGILVIE)	25	30→39	50	50→40	55	254/339/490	236	326	28	10	31%	10%	131	+4.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→47	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	274	20	4	27%	8%	94	+1.3	219/282/356	137	276	15	3	25%	7%	77	+0.1	241/316/409	168	288	21	2	23%	9%	102	+0.7
●Chris Gimenez 2008 · AA	25	41→51	53→50	41→45	45	218/296/391	173	261	21	5	26%	7%	93	+1.3	231/307/375	144	295	16	4	26%	9%	93	+1.3	228/306/358	131	292	14	2	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Tyler Ogle 2016 · A	25	41→44	52→50	36→30	50	217/297/379	162	259	21	2	25%	9%	91	+1.1	214/283/358	144	276	17	5	28%	8%	79	+0.3	183/255/309	127	233	13	0	27%	7%	53	-0.4
✕Devin Mann 2022 · AA	25	39→46	52→55	43→45	43	208/281/373	165	273	19	7	31%	7%	82	+0.5	221/299/382	161	292	18	5	29%	9%	92	+1.2	218/299/375	157	288	18	3	29%	9%	87	+0.6
●Adley Rutschman 2022 · AAA	24	46→54	49→50	41→40	50	234/305/380	146	277	17	5	22%	8%	93	+1.3	250/339/403	153	285	16	4	17%	11%	113	+2.6	251/344/400	150	279	16	2	16%	12%	110	+2.5
●Sean Murphy 2020 · MLB	25	43→50	53→60	45→30	45	227/287/403	175	272	20	4	25%	7%	92	+1.2	237/322/431	194	286	23	3	25%	10%	114	+2.7	242/337/441	199	283	23	0	22%	10%	120	+2.6
●Mickey Gasper 2021 · A	25	41→51	46→50	49→45	47	210/284/341	130	262	14	5	25%	8%	75	-0.0	232/316/371	139	296	13	9	25%	9%	95	+1.4	246/332/388	142	283	15	8	18%	10%	104	+1.1
✕Andy Wilson 2006 · A	25	45→43	56→60	46→45	48	238/298/430	192	274	25	7	24%	8%	103	+1.9	216/273/342	126	289	14	5	29%	7%	69	-0.4	190/245/280	90	269	9	0	31%	6%	40	-1.5
✕Nick Hundley 2008 · AA	24	41→46	51→55	39→40	45	217/274/376	159	259	19	3	25%	7%	79	+0.3	223/280/380	157	271	18	4	24%	7%	82	+0.5	255/322/429	174	321	17	4	25%	8%	109	+1.2
✕Francisco Mejía 2021 · MLB	25	45→55	51→55	46→40	41	234/284/397	163	276	18	4	23%	5%	89	+1.0	242/288/399	157	286	16	3	21%	5%	91	+1.1	243/283/402	159	288	16	0	21%	4%	88	+0.4
●Yonathan Perlaza 2023 · AA	24	44→51	52→60	47→50	45	224/295/399	176	304	20	10	32%	9%	94	+1.3	236/306/415	179	306	19	12	28%	9%	102	+1.9	241/309/416	175	306	19	12	26%	8%	101	+1.7
✕Landon Powell 2007 · AA	25	43→41	49→50	46→30	45	224/286/360	136	287	18	3	28%	8%	80	+0.4	226/298/384	158	280	21	3	26%	9%	92	+1.2	217/298/386	169	259	23	1	25%	10%	90	+0.5
✕Alex Isola 2023 · AA	25	41→45	52→50	43→40	47	218/287/374	156	271	21	3	28%	8%	85	+0.7	214/279/342	128	273	15	6	26%	8%	72	-0.2	203/270/322	119	256	14	5	26%	8%	61	-0.6
●David Cook 2006 · A	25	44→50	55→60	45→50	48	230/310/419	189	305	23	7	32%	10%	106	+2.2	220/298/392	172	283	20	10	28%	9%	94	+1.3	234/314/428	195	279	24	10	25%	10%	107	+2.0
✕Ben Johnson 2007 · A	25	40→44	52→55	50→45	42	212/271/379	167	257	20	5	27%	6%	79	+0.3	221/272/384	163	256	20	8	23%	4%	81	+0.4	216/265/375	159	244	20	8	21%	4%	75	-0.0
●Drew Sutton 2007 · A	24	44→54	48→50	44→50	48	223/288/364	141	270	16	11	23%	8%	82	+0.5	244/307/381	137	297	13	14	22%	8%	94	+1.3	249/323/392	143	313	13	10	23%	9%	101	+1.4
✕Chance Sisco 2020 · MLB	25	44→54	51→50	41→40	44	222/308/378	155	297	19	3	30%	8%	95	+1.4	207/300/356	149	279	17	4	30%	9%	86	+0.8	174/281/301	128	241	13	0	31%	10%	63	-0.3
✕Ian Rice 2019 · AA	25	41→39	50	44→30	49	210/300/364	154	287	19	3	32%	10%	88	+0.9	198/272/302	104	291	10	5	33%	8%	59	-1.1	151/222/208	57	227	5	0	34%	7%	14	-1.8
✕Jason Hagerty 2013 · AA	25	46→50	47→50	43→40	43	229/293/371	142	305	15	3	29%	7%	86	+0.8	229/291/355	126	298	13	5	26%	7%	81	+0.4	227/292/351	124	298	13	4	27%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Travis Scott 2010 · A	25	44	51→55	47→40	43	227/281/393	166	287	19	4	28%	7%	86	+0.8	213/265/343	130	278	13	6	27%	6%	66	-0.6	197/249/313	116	234	15	3	23%	5%	50	-0.4