Owen Ayers — OGILVIE

Owen AyersC Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 S/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION516 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP303

ISO145

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$52M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT39

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$10M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+1.2	$6M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$45M	+$35M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	23	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	70	63	12	4	0	1	6	14	1	1	0	190	271	302	573	111	229	20	9	264	65	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	24	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	273	231	55	14	5	6	31	63	7	7	0	238	346	420	766	182	295	23	11	339	115	+5	+1	—	—	+6	1.3
2025	24	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	89	66	25	5	0	3	22	10	1	1	0	379	539	591	1.130	212	415	11	25	496	222	+13	+0	—	—	+2	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	70	65	10	3	0	1	4	20	1	1	0	154	214	246	460	92	207	29	6	204	24	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	24	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	273	245	45	11	3	5	17	94	7	7	0	184	257	314	571	131	259	34	6	255	59	-13	+1	—	—	+6	-0.6
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	70	65	10	3	0	1	4	20	1	1	0	154	214	246	460	92	205	29	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	70	63	12	4	0	1	6	14	1	1	0	190	271	302	573	111	229	20	9	264	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	362	327	60	15	4	7	23	124	8	8	0	183	254	318	572	135	265	34	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	362	297	80	19	5	9	53	73	8	8	0	269	394	458	852	189	324	20	15	377	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	70	65	10	3	0	1	4	20	1	1	0	154	214	246	460	92	207	29	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	362	328	60	15	4	7	23	124	8	8	0	183	254	317	571	134	259	34	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	70	65	10	3	0	1	4	20	1	1	0	154	214	246	460	92	207	29	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	362	328	60	15	4	7	23	124	8	8	0	183	254	317	571	134	259	34	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	CHC	—	516	453	112	24	1	19	54	147	6	13	1	247	335	430	766	183	321	28	10	335	113	+8	+2	+0	+9	+11	3.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ RAW	CHC	—	52	43	16	3	0	6	8	11	1	3	0	372	481	860	1.341	488	385	21	15	557	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AA RAW	CHC	—	278	230	70	16	1	16	42	69	4	3	1	304	420	591	1.012	287	367	25	15	436	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA RAW	CHC	—	186	155	41	9	0	3	29	40	1	7	0	265	384	381	764	116	336	22	16	350	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AA MLE	CHC	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		301	33	11	315	100	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	25	AA MLE	CHC	—	525	461	113	24	1	19	55	150	6	13	1	245	333	425	758	180	319	29	10	334	112	+8	+2	+0	+9	+11	3.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	43%	520	460	108	23	2	17	49	150	6	8	1	235	317	404	721	170	303	29	9	318	101	+1	+1	+1	+9	+11	2.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	59%	520	460	107	23	2	16	49	148	6	8	1	233	315	396	710	163	302	28	9	318	101	+1	+1	+1	+9	+11	2.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	67%	520	460	107	23	2	16	49	147	6	7	1	233	315	396	710	163	301	28	9	317	101	+1	+1	+1	+9	+11	2.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	69%	520	460	106	22	2	16	49	147	6	7	1	230	313	391	704	161	300	28	9	316	100	-0	+1	-0	+9	+11	2.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	70%	520	460	106	22	2	16	49	148	6	6	1	230	313	391	704	161	299	28	9	313	98	-1	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.0
2032	31	MLB MLE	CHC	71%	504	445	101	21	2	15	48	145	6	6	1	227	311	384	695	157	296	29	10	309	95	-3	+1	-2	+9	+11	1.6
2033	32	MLB MLE	CHC	71%	489	434	97	20	2	14	46	143	6	5	0	224	307	376	682	152	292	29	9	303	91	-5	+1	-2	+9	+11	1.3
2034	33	MLB MLE	CHC	72%	299	266	58	12	1	8	28	89	3	3	0	218	300	361	661	143	288	30	9	296	86	-5	+1	-4	+5	+6	0.4
2035	34	MLB MLE	CHC	67%	252	223	47	9	1	7	24	77	3	2	0	211	296	354	650	143	281	31	10	287	80	-6	+0	-4	+4	+5	0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	43%	224	198	46	10	1	7	21	65	3	4	0	232	315	399	714	167	305	29	9	308	101	+0	+1	+1	+4	+5	1.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	59%	306	270	63	14	1	9	29	87	4	5	0	233	317	393	709	159	304	28	9	308	101	+1	+1	+1	+5	+7	1.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	67%	348	308	72	15	2	11	33	98	4	5	0	234	316	403	719	169	303	28	9	308	101	+0	+1	+0	+6	+8	1.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	69%	359	318	75	16	2	11	34	102	4	5	0	236	317	403	720	167	302	28	9	306	100	-0	+1	-0	+6	+8	1.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	70%	365	323	74	16	1	11	35	104	4	5	0	229	312	387	699	158	300	28	10	303	98	-1	+1	-1	+7	+8	1.4
2032	31	MLB CTX	CHC	71%	357	316	71	15	1	10	34	103	4	4	0	225	308	373	681	149	298	29	10	299	95	-2	+1	-1	+6	+8	1.2
2033	32	MLB CTX	CHC	71%	349	309	68	14	1	10	33	102	4	4	0	220	303	369	672	149	294	29	9	294	91	-4	+1	-2	+6	+8	0.9
2034	33	MLB CTX	CHC	72%	214	190	41	8	1	6	20	64	2	2	0	216	297	363	660	147	289	30	9	287	86	-3	+0	-3	+4	+5	0.3
2035	34	MLB CTX	CHC	67%	169	149	31	6	1	4	16	51	2	1	0	208	293	342	636	134	283	30	9	278	80	-4	+0	-3	+3	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2691	2381	541	114	11	79	255	776	31	35	0	227	310	384	694	157	300	29	9	301	92	-13	+7	-7	+48	+58	9.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	131	28	3	19	62	187	7	8	0	228	311	386	697	158	300	29	10	301	92	-3	+2	-2	+12	+14	2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4585	4068	908	193	20	133	419	1341	57	61	6	223	305	379	683	155	296	29	9	305	92	-18	+8	-10	+74	+90	14.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	129	27	3	19	59	190	8	9	1	224	304	380	684	156	296	29	9	305	92	-3	+1	-2	+12	+14	2.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
/162	664	24	1	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#5Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.1	2,696	81	34	228	307	385	+48	-6	11.2	10.7
/162	664	20	8	+11.9	-1.5	2.8	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Owen Ayers (OGILVIE)	25	30→39	50	50→40	55	228/310/391	163	301	9	6	29%	9%	100	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Scott Manea 2021 · A	25	40→42	46→45	39→30	41	206/284/331	126	268	14	4	28%	6%	76	-0.4	211/296/316	105	302	11	3	31%	9%	76	-0.4	197/291/291	93	287	10	0	32%	10%	66	-0.6
✕Jakson Reetz 2021 · A	25	42→33	46→55	44→45	42	207/286/332	125	292	14	5	32%	7%	77	-0.3	194/272/347	153	266	18	5	33%	6%	76	-0.4	193/274/380	187	243	23	4	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Devin Mann 2022 · AA	25	41→44	49→50	43→45	44	211/285/364	153	273	17	7	29%	7%	84	+0.1	217/297/364	147	287	15	5	28%	9%	88	+0.4	213/295/355	142	282	15	3	28%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Chris Gimenez 2007 · A	24	41→51	46→50	40→45	43	207/289/341	134	261	13	5	25%	6%	80	-0.1	229/307/382	153	288	18	4	26%	8%	96	+1.0	226/309/379	153	284	18	3	26%	9%	94	+0.6
✕Brian O'Keefe 2018 · A	25	42→43	47→55	45→40	45	214/276/349	134	273	15	5	27%	7%	76	-0.4	212/280/344	132	269	14	4	26%	8%	76	-0.4	209/277/353	144	269	18	2	29%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Tyler Ogle 2016 · A	25	42→43	50	36→30	50	218/297/371	152	264	19	2	25%	9%	89	+0.5	214/280/350	136	275	15	5	27%	7%	78	-0.3	179/248/294	115	224	12	0	25%	6%	52	-0.6
●Drew Sutton 2007 · A	24	44→54	48→50	44→50	48	223/288/364	141	270	16	11	23%	8%	84	+0.1	243/307/374	131	295	12	14	21%	8%	93	+0.8	250/324/384	135	314	11	10	23%	9%	99	+1.0
✕Patrick Bailey 2023 · A	24	38→48	46→45	47→45	46	195/269/321	126	268	13	5	31%	9%	68	-1.0	226/287/344	118	301	12	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	231/291/344	113	305	11	4	27%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Landon Powell 2007 · AA	25	44→41	49→50	46→30	45	224/286/360	136	286	18	3	28%	8%	82	+0.0	225/298/379	154	279	20	3	26%	9%	91	+0.7	217/297/380	163	258	22	1	25%	10%	89	+0.2
✕Ian Rice 2019 · AA	25	41→40	48→50	44→30	49	209/298/347	138	281	16	3	30%	10%	84	+0.2	201/275/300	99	287	9	5	31%	8%	65	-1.2	159/231/218	59	232	5	0	31%	7%	30	-1.7
✕Jose Lobatón 2009 · AA	24	45	46→45	43→30	45	222/286/351	129	296	13	3	28%	8%	80	-0.1	222/282/334	112	292	11	3	26%	8%	74	-0.5	233/317/359	126	296	11	0	23%	11%	91	+0.3
✕Kenny Holmberg 2008 · A	25	46→47	47→50	41→40	50	232/305/366	134	277	15	4	22%	9%	91	+0.7	211/299/294	83	275	7	5	24%	9%	73	-0.6	179/291/209	30	245	0	1	23%	11%	51	-1.3
✕Yonathan Perlaza 2023 · AA	24	44→52	51→55	47→50	45	222/290/389	167	294	18	10	30%	8%	91	+0.6	234/304/400	166	305	17	12	27%	9%	99	+1.2	241/312/406	165	310	16	12	26%	9%	99	+1.2
●Mickey Gasper 2021 · A	25	42→52	46→50	49→45	47	211/286/337	126	262	14	5	25%	8%	77	-0.3	230/313/361	131	292	12	9	24%	8%	93	+0.8	252/343/409	158	285	17	7	17%	10%	113	+1.5
✕Brett Cumberland 2021 · AA	26	43→40	45	45→30	46	209/302/337	128	294	13	4	31%	9%	84	+0.2	194/298/298	104	297	11	5	36%	8%	75	-0.5	163/281/251	89	258	11	1	37%	8%	56	-0.8
●Ryan Schimpf 2013 · AA	25	39→41	51→60	48→45	44	205/278/370	165	273	18	7	31%	8%	82	-0.0	193/270/361	168	248	20	4	30%	8%	78	-0.3	202/284/418	216	238	27	2	28%	9%	93	+0.7
✕Alex Isola 2023 · AA	25	42→45	50	43→40	48	218/287/363	144	270	19	3	26%	9%	84	+0.1	214/279/337	123	270	14	6	25%	8%	74	-0.5	204/270/318	114	256	13	5	25%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→48	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	274	20	4	27%	8%	95	+0.9	221/284/354	133	278	14	3	25%	8%	80	-0.1	251/325/430	179	297	23	2	23%	9%	110	+0.8
✕Jason Hagerty 2013 · AA	25	48→52	46→50	43→40	45	233/299/364	131	306	13	3	27%	8%	88	+0.4	228/293/344	116	291	11	5	24%	7%	81	-0.1	227/294/345	118	291	11	4	25%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Tom Murphy 2015 · AA	24	40→38	50→65	43→45	41	208/274/365	156	287	18	5	33%	7%	80	-0.2	208/255/373	165	298	19	5	36%	5%	74	-0.5	247/319/462	215	314	30	2	30%	9%	117	+1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps