Miguel Hernández

SS FCL Cardinals
Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 145 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP40OGV rank#330ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202517ROKSTL169.281/.416/.44451555—.176/.295/.254
202618A/ROKSTL294.282/.446/.520111899—.216/.344/.391
2027PROJMLE19MLBSTL404.215/.307/.34598860.4
2028PROJ31% MLB20MLBSTL75.221/.313/.35621920.2
2029PROJ48% MLB21MLBSTL173.225/.317/.36843960.5
Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed85
BB%78
Chase%75
Max EV67
Z-Con%39
K%38
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 27, comp-based) · star 7% · didn't stick 70%
CompsHao-Yu Lee (age 20) · Michael Arroyo (age 19) · Sal Stewart (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 178 proj PA
wRC+†86
AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .304 / .342
PA178
HR4
K%27
BB%10
ISO130
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.91.90.20.50.91.11.31.31.41.31.21.00.727282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$65M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.3$7M+$6M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+1.4$7M+$6M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+1.3$6M+$5M
2036Arb-1$5M+1.2$5M+$3M
2037Arb-2$7M+1.0$4M+$1M
2038Arb-3$8M+0.7$1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $14M $29M +$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202517 ROKDSL Cardinals — 169135 38515 25356 154 281416444860 163337 2115 383 55 — — — — — —
202618 APalm Beach Cardinals — 10379 24712 20274 73 304466494960 190440 2619 430 117 — — — — — —
202618 ROKFCL Cardinals — 191148 40639 39404 115 270435534968 264313 2120 426 89 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202517 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 169142 25312 18446 154 176295254549 77219 2611 249 55 — — — — — —
202618 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 10384 22612 15374 73 262398429827 167409 3615 341 117 — — — — — —
202618 ROK MLEFCL Cardinals — 191162 31427 25584 115 191314370685 179243 3013 300 89 — — — — — —
202517 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 169142 25312 18446 154 176295254549 77232 2611 249 55 — — — — — —
202517 ROK RAWDSL Cardinals — 169135 38515 25356 154 281416444860 163337 2115 383 55 — — — — — —
202618 ROK MLE2 teams — 294247 521039 39948 188 211337385721 174299 3213 314 99 — — — — — —
202618 ROK RAW2 teams — 294227 6413411 59678 188 282446520965 238356 2320 427 99 — — — — — —
202517 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 169143 25312 18446 154 175295252547 77219 2611 249 55 — — — — — —
202618 ROK MLE2 teams — 294245 521039 39948 188 212337388724 176301 3213 314 99 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202517 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 169143 25312 18446 154 175295252547 77219 2611 249 55 — — — — — —
202618 ROK MLE2 teams — 294245 521039 39948 188 212337388724 176301 3213 314 99 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202719 MLB MLESTL 0% 404354 771439 411106 82 215307345652 130283 2710 296 86 -7 +1 +0 +4 +9 0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202820 MLB MLESTL 31% 242211 47826 25654 41 221313361674 140285 2710 304 92 -2 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.6
202921 MLB MLESTL 48% 361315 7113210 37956 62 225317374691 148287 2610 311 96 -2 +0 +0 +4 +8 1.1
203022 MLB MLESTL 57% 443388 8916313 451157 82 229320383703 154288 2610 315 100 -0 +1 +0 +5 +10 1.5
203123 MLB MLESTL 62% 494433 10018315 501268 83 232322390712 158289 2610 319 102 +1 +0 +0 +5 +11 1.8
203224 MLB MLESTL 63% 528462 10719316 531348 83 234323395718 161290 2510 321 103 +2 +0 +0 +6 +11 2.0
203325 MLB MLESTL 64% 550482 11320417 551398 93 234324397720 163290 2510 322 104 +3 +1 +0 +6 +12 2.1
203426 MLB MLESTL 64% 558489 11420417 561418 83 234324397721 163290 2510 322 104 +3 +0 +0 +6 +12 2.2
203527 MLB MLESTL 63% 558489 11420417 561428 83 233323395718 162289 2510 321 103 +2 +0 +0 +6 +12 2.1
203628 MLB MLESTL 62% 552483 11220317 561428 73 231321390711 159289 2610 318 102 +1 +0 -1 +6 +12 1.9
203729 MLB MLESTL 61% 539472 10819316 541408 63 229318384702 155287 2610 315 99 -1 +0 -1 +6 +12 1.6
203830 MLB MLESTL 60% 527462 10418315 531387 63 226315377691 150286 2610 310 96 -2 +0 -2 +6 +11 1.3
203931 MLB MLESTL 65% 510448 9917314 501367 45 222310367677 145283 2710 305 92 -5 -1 -3 +5 +11 0.8
204032 MLB MLESTL 68% 487431 9416313 471326 318 217304355659 138279 2710 297 87 -7 -7 -4 +5 +11 -0.2
202820 MLB CTXSTL 31% 7566 16312 8201 10 221313356669 136287 2711 303 92 -1 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.2
202921 MLB CTXSTL 48% 173150 33614 18453 31 225317368685 143289 2610 309 96 -1 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.5
203022 MLB CTXSTL 57% 252220 51927 26654 41 228319377697 149290 2610 313 100 -0 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.9
203123 MLB CTXSTL 62% 305266 611128 31785 52 231321384705 153291 2610 316 102 +1 +0 +0 +3 +7 1.1
203224 MLB CTXSTL 63% 332291 681329 33845 52 233323389711 156292 2510 319 103 +1 +0 +0 +4 +7 1.3
203325 MLB CTXSTL 64% 350307 7113210 35895 52 234323391714 157292 2510 320 104 +2 +0 +0 +4 +8 1.3
203426 MLB CTXSTL 64% 357313 7314210 36905 52 233323391714 158292 2510 320 104 +2 +0 +0 +4 +8 1.4
203527 MLB CTXSTL 63% 352308 7113210 36905 52 232322389711 156291 2610 318 103 +1 +0 +0 +4 +8 1.3
203628 MLB CTXSTL 62% 344301 7013210 35885 42 231320384704 153290 2610 316 102 +1 +0 -0 +4 +7 1.2
203729 MLB CTXSTL 61% 327286 651229 33855 42 228318378696 150289 2610 313 99 -0 +0 -1 +4 +7 1.0
203830 MLB CTXSTL 60% 314276 621128 31824 32 226314371685 145287 2610 308 96 -1 -0 -1 +3 +7 0.7
203931 MLB CTXSTL 65% 329290 641228 32884 34 222310362671 140285 2710 303 92 -3 -1 -2 +4 +7 0.5
204032 MLB CTXSTL 68% 334294 631128 33914 212 217304350654 133281 2710 296 87 -5 -4 -2 +4 +7 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 38443368 76814124103 38799555 4934 228318376693 148290 2610 313 98 -4 -4 -7 +41 +83 11.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650570 13024417 651689 86 228317374690 146290 2610 313 98 -1 -1 -1 +7 +14 1.9
Career— MLE — 69906109 138224345201 7121832110 12165 226318379697 153287 2610 313 98 -10 -4 -10 +70 +141 19.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650568 12923419 6617010 116 227318382700 155288 2610 313 98 -1 -0 -1 +7 +14 1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Cardinals · 191 PAwOBA .416 → .300 (−115)K% 20.9% → 30.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.94%÷1.000×1.440——30.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.42%÷1.000×0.620—×1.02212.94%
HBP% /PA2.09%—×0.720—×1.0221.54%
Singles /BIP20.37%÷1.000×0.820×0.977×1.02216.69%
Doubles /BIP5.56%÷1.000×0.720×0.977×1.0224.00%
Triples /BIP2.78%÷1.000×0.720×0.977×1.0222.00%
Home runs /BIP8.33%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0226.65%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .416 → .300; ISO .264 → .200; BABIP .313 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 103 PAwOBA .420 → .341 (−80)K% 26.2% → 35.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.21%÷1.000×1.360——35.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.42%÷1.000×0.690—×1.05014.07%
HBP% /PA3.88%—×0.780—×1.0503.18%
Singles /BIP26.92%÷1.000×0.920—×1.05026.01%
Doubles /BIP13.46%÷1.000×0.830—×1.05011.73%
Triples /BIP1.92%÷1.000×0.910—×1.0501.84%
Home runs /BIP3.85%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0503.23%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .420 → .341; ISO .190 → .154; BABIP .440 → .409. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Cardinals · 169 PAwOBA .380 → .249 (−131)K% 20.7% → 26.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.71%÷0.961×1.220——26.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.79%÷1.022×0.700—×1.02210.36%
HBP% /PA3.55%—×0.700—×1.0222.54%
Singles /BIP27.00%÷1.019×0.680×1.000×1.02218.44%
Doubles /BIP5.00%÷0.990×0.600×1.000×1.0223.10%
Triples /BIP1.00%÷1.150×0.600×1.000×1.0220.53%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷1.047×0.470—×1.0222.30%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .380 → .249; ISO .163 → .084; BABIP .337 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).