Brett Sears — OGILVIE

Brett Sears P Columbus Clingstones

+1.4 WAR

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2026

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.7%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%13.5%

IP111

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2026

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	25	21	121	498	128	31	16	21.1%	7.1%	2.6%	3.65	3.63	+2.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AA	Columbus Clingstones	2	2	11	46	12	3	1	—	—	—	3.18	—	—
ROS	26	MLB	ATL	20	20	111	469	102	39	13	21.7%	8.2%	2.9%	4.26	4.26	+1.3
2026 Total	26	MLB	ATL	—	—	122	515	114	42	14	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	4.16	3.87	+2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	ATL	21	21	114	482	105	40	14	21.8%	8.2%	2.9%	4.27	4.27	+1.3
2028	28	MLB	ATL	21	21	114	483	105	40	14	21.8%	8.2%	2.9%	4.29	4.30	+1.3
2029	29	MLB	ATL	20	20	112	472	102	39	14	21.6%	8.3%	3.0%	4.32	4.34	+1.2
2030	30	MLB	ATL	20	20	108	458	98	38	14	21.5%	8.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.40	+1.1
2031	31	MLB	ATL	19	19	105	442	94	37	14	21.2%	8.5%	3.1%	4.43	4.47	+1.0
2032	32	MLB	ATL	18	18	100	424	89	37	14	20.9%	8.6%	3.2%	4.51	4.56	+0.8
2033	33	MLB	ATL	17	17	96	405	84	36	13	20.6%	8.8%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	+0.7
2034	34	MLB	ATL	17	17	91	385	78	35	13	20.3%	9.0%	3.4%	4.70	4.77	+0.5
2035	35	MLB	ATL	16	16	86	363	72	34	13	19.9%	9.2%	3.5%	4.81	4.89	+0.3
2036	36	MLB	ATL	15	15	80	339	66	32	12	19.5%	9.5%	3.6%	4.94	5.02	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			27	23	132	544	117	38	14	21.5%	7.1%	2.5%	3.61	3.57	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—			41	35	200	824	177	58	21	21.5%	7.1%	2.5%	3.61	3.57	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Sears (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	21.7%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.30	21.7%	13.5%	341	+0.04	—	—	—
Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	26	SP-	3.29	19.3%	5.9%	1.9%	.309	2.86	25.5%	19.3%	191	-0.43	2.61	530	90
Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP-	3.85	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.58	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.73	3.85	141	89
Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	22.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.262	3.09	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.56	3.09	137	88
Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	27	SP-	3.55	20.2%	6.3%	2.5%	.306	5.15	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.60	3.55	244	87
Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP-	3.79	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.90	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.11	3.79	223	87
Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	27	SP-	3.89	17.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.286	4.13	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.24	3.89	248	87
Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP-	3.98	18.4%	8.9%	2.4%	.315	5.24	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.26	3.98	115	86
Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP-	3.94	22.4%	6.8%	3.4%	.324	3.78	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.16	3.62	224	86
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.22 FIP	26	SP-	3.22	21.3%	8.8%	1.5%	.330	4.61	18.0%	7.3%	110	+1.39	3.22	221	85
Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	5.02	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.60	4.42	200	85
Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	26	SP-	4.28	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	270	85
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	19.1%	7.0%	3.3%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	194	84
Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	84
Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP-	3.80	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.62	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.82	3.80	500	83
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP-	3.50	22.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	368	83
Garrett Edwards R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	83
R.J. Gordon R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	21.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	129	83
Heath Holder R 2026 · 3.24 FIP	26	SP-	3.24	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.58	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.34	2.92	367	83
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	26	SP-	4.78	19.7%	9.7%	3.9%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.85	3.50	472	83
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP-	3.76	18.2%	6.2%	2.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	229	82

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.5	$3M	+$0.1M
Totals		$9M		$39M	+$30M