Brett Sears

P Columbus Clingstones

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#251ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	25	MIX4 levels	25	21	121	3.65	3.47	25.7%	6.2%	—	K 21.1% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.64
2026	26	MIX3 levels	23	21	124	2.90	2.51	31.0%	6.1%	—	K 25.1% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.30
2027PROJ	27	MLBATL	1	1	3	3.79	3.79	23.4%	6.0%	0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBATL	8	8	48	3.89	3.92	23.2%	6.3%	0.9
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBATL	11	11	64	4.01	4.07	22.9%	6.6%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Ext$1M2034Ext$0.6M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 8.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 83%

CompsKenta Maeda (age 28) · Brian Edgington (age 25) · Chad Patrick (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%23.4%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%17.5%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$17M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	21	121	498	128	31	16	84%	4.8	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	2.6%	3.65	3.64	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	21	121	498	128	31	16	84%	4.8	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	2.6%	3.65	3.64	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	21	121	498	128	31	16	84%	4.8	25.7%	6.2%	19.5%	3.2%	3.65	3.47	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	124	494	153	30	11	91%	5.4	25.1%	6.5%	18.5%	2.7%	2.90	3.30	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	124	494	153	30	11	91%	5.4	25.1%	6.5%	18.5%	2.7%	2.90	3.30	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	124	494	153	30	11	91%	5.4	31.0%	6.1%	24.9%	2.2%	2.90	2.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ATL	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	23.4%	6.0%	17.5%	2.8%	3.79	3.79	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	127	535	124	34	16	100%	6.0	23.2%	6.3%	16.9%	2.9%	3.89	3.92	+2.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	115	485	111	32	15	100%	6.0	22.9%	6.6%	16.2%	3.1%	4.01	4.07	+1.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	104	441	99	31	14	100%	6.1	22.5%	7.0%	15.5%	3.3%	4.17	4.26	+1.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	94	397	88	29	14	100%	5.9	22.1%	7.4%	14.7%	3.5%	4.35	4.46	+1.0
2032	32	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	83	351	76	27	13	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.7%	4.55	4.69	+0.7
2033	33	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	72	302	64	25	12	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.2%	12.9%	4.0%	4.78	4.94	+0.4
2034	34	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	60	255	52	22	11	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	4.3%	5.04	5.21	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	48	203	47	13	6	100%	6.0	23.2%	6.3%	16.9%	2.9%	3.89	3.92	+0.9
2029	29	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	64	270	62	18	8	100%	5.8	22.9%	6.6%	16.2%	3.1%	4.01	4.07	+1.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	71	300	67	21	10	100%	5.9	22.5%	7.0%	15.5%	3.3%	4.17	4.26	+1.0
2031	31	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	72	304	67	22	11	100%	6.0	22.1%	7.4%	14.7%	3.5%	4.35	4.46	+0.8
2032	32	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	68	287	62	22	11	100%	6.2	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.7%	4.55	4.69	+0.6
2033	33	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	62	262	55	21	10	100%	6.2	21.1%	8.2%	12.9%	4.0%	4.78	4.94	+0.3
2034	34	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	50	211	43	18	9	100%	6.2	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	4.3%	5.04	5.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	72	434	1834	403	136	65	100%	6.0	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	3.5%	4.39	4.12	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	186	63	30	100%	6.0	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	3.5%	4.39	4.12	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		48	42	245	992	229	68	26	88%	5.1	23.1%	6.8%	16.3%	2.7%	3.27	3.47	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	34	200	810	187	55	21	88%	5.1	23.1%	6.8%	16.3%	2.7%	3.27	3.47	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 95 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.61 (+0.84)K% 29.7% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.74%	—	×0.810	24.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.79%	—	×1.100	6.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.16%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 26 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.17 (+0.35)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.84%	—	×0.900	7.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 74 IPFIP 3.09 → 3.87 (+0.79)K% 24.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.10%	—	×0.810	19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.49%	—	×1.100	8.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷0.934	×1.200	2.51%

Result: FIP 3.09 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 19 IPFIP 1.10 → 2.10 (+1.00)K% 39.7% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.74%	—	×0.740	29.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.13%	—	×1.180	6.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷1.281	×1.300	1.30%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 1.10 → 2.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Rome Emperors · 18 IPFIP 2.98 → 4.33 (+1.35)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.29%	—	×0.770	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.86%	—	×1.150	3.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.819	×1.250	4.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 10 IPFIP 11.45 → 12.84 (+1.39)K% 14.0% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.95%	—	×0.860	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.65%	—	×0.900	4.19%
HR / BF /BF	16.28%	÷0.961	×1.100	18.62%

Result: FIP 11.45 → 12.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Sears (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.07	22.9%	16.2%	346	+0.28	—	—	—
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	79
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	79
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	79
Matt Shoemaker R 2014 · 3.12 FIP	27	SP-	3.12	22.8%	4.4%	2.5%	.283	4.02	21.0%	15.3%	373	+0.90	3.12	728	78
Mike Fiers R 2012 · 2.99 FIP	27	SP	2.99	25.0%	6.7%	2.1%	.317	3.82	24.0%	16.9%	274	+0.83	2.83	1,140	78
Aaron Wilkerson R 2016 · 3.29 FIP	27	SP	3.29	22.0%	7.0%	2.1%	.302	3.64	20.0%	12.0%	307	+0.35	2.75	902	77
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	76
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	72
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	72
Josh A. Smith R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	17.8%	6.9%	1.7%	.307	3.87	19.9%	12.6%	265	+0.47	2.91	598	72
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	72
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	72
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	299	71
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	71
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	71
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	71
Zach Petrick R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	26	SP	3.41	14.8%	4.2%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	157	70
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	70
Drew Rasmussen R 2022 · 3.22 FIP	27	SP	3.22	21.4%	5.3%	2.3%	.260	3.09	23.8%	17.7%	223	-0.13	1.21	694	70
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	100	22.4%	7.0%	1.28	4.22
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Wally Whitehurst ('89-'96, 4 WAR*)	2.4	98	19.0%*	6.3%*	1.11*	4.50*
Greg Harris ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	130	19.7%*	7.9%*	1.40*	4.10*