Brett Sears — OGILVIE

Brett Sears P Columbus Clingstones

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION118 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%19.9%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD4560

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	21	121	498	128	31	16	84%	4.8	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	2.6%	3.65	3.64	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	21	121	498	128	31	16	84%	4.8	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	2.6%	3.65	3.64	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	21	121	498	128	31	16	84%	4.8	25.7%	6.2%	19.5%	3.2%	3.65	3.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	22	20	118	469	145	29	10	91%	5.4	24.8%	6.7%	18.1%	2.6%	2.82	3.30	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	22	20	118	469	145	29	10	91%	5.4	24.8%	6.7%	18.1%	2.6%	2.82	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	ATL	1	1	4	12	6	0	0	100%	3.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	26	AA RAW	ATL	17	15	95	380	113	22	10	88%	5.6	29.7%	5.8%	23.9%	2.6%	3.33	2.77	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	ATL	4	4	20	77	26	7	0	100%	4.9	33.8%	9.1%	24.7%	0.0%	0.92	1.40	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	ATL	2	2	12	50	10	3	1	100%	5.9	19.9%	6.4%	13.5%	2.9%	4.19	4.19	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	130	519	155	32	11	—	—	29.9%	6.2%	23.6%	2.2%	2.95	3.38	+2.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	139	585	118	39	17	100%	6.0	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.22	4.23	+1.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	134	567	114	39	17	100%	6.1	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.32	+0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	128	542	108	39	17	100%	6.1	20.0%	7.1%	12.9%	3.2%	4.38	4.44	+0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	121	510	100	38	17	100%	6.0	19.7%	7.4%	12.3%	3.4%	4.52	4.62	+0.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	113	475	92	37	17	100%	5.9	19.3%	7.8%	11.5%	3.6%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	104	440	83	36	17	100%	6.1	18.8%	8.2%	10.7%	3.9%	4.91	5.04	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	52	220	44	15	6	100%	5.8	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.22	4.23	+0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	80	338	68	23	10	100%	6.2	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.32	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	91	384	77	27	12	100%	6.1	20.0%	7.1%	12.9%	3.2%	4.38	4.44	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	95	401	79	30	14	100%	5.9	19.7%	7.4%	12.3%	3.4%	4.52	4.62	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	94	397	77	31	14	100%	5.9	19.3%	7.8%	11.5%	3.6%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	91	384	72	31	15	100%	6.1	18.8%	8.2%	10.7%	3.9%	4.91	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	84	503	2122	416	157	72	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	3.4%	4.53	4.23	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	62	29	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	3.4%	4.53	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		47	41	239	967	221	67	25	87%	5.1	22.9%	6.9%	16.0%	2.6%	3.24	3.47	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	34	200	810	185	56	21	87%	5.1	22.9%	6.9%	16.0%	2.6%	3.24	3.47	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Sears (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	19.9%	6.4%	2.9%	—	4.33	20.1%	13.2%	401	+0.14	—	—	—
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	86
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,146	84
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	84
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	84
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	83
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	83
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	82
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	81
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	81
Dan Straily R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP	3.50	19.9%	5.5%	2.5%	.343	4.57	20.7%	12.5%	495	+1.07	3.50	890	80
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	80
Austin Voth R 2018 · 3.86 FIP	26	SP	3.86	19.3%	8.0%	2.5%	.287	4.29	22.7%	15.5%	212	+0.43	3.41	1,057	80
Mike Hauschild R 2016 · 3.17 FIP	26	SP	3.17	17.9%	7.0%	1.3%	.312	4.43	16.4%	4.8%	247	+1.26	3.17	579	80
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	80
Chad Bettis R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	26	SP	3.67	19.1%	7.6%	2.2%	.310	4.17	15.9%	8.9%	385	+0.50	3.67	603	79
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	79
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	79
Chris Bassitt R 2015 · 3.02 FIP	26	SP-	3.02	19.4%	7.7%	1.1%	.287	3.81	19.3%	10.5%	208	+0.79	3.02	1,554	79
Hiram Burgos R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	19.7%	9.5%	1.4%	.282	4.34	17.2%	8.6%	206	+0.94	3.40	355	79
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	126	19.7%	7.1%	1.25	4.43
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12