Brett Sears
P
Columbus Clingstones
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
K%19.9%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 21 | 121 | 498 | 128 | 31 | 16 | 84% | 4.8 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 3.65 | 3.79 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 21 | 121 | 498 | 128 | 31 | 16 | 84% | 4.8 | 25.7% | 6.2% | 19.5% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 3.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 13 | 12 | 63 | 252 | 77 | 15 | 6 | 92% | 4.8 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 18.1% | 3.2% | 3.57 | 3.56 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 131 | 539 | 134 | 34 | 15 | — | — | 24.9% | 6.4% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +2.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.9% | 6.8% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 3.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 139 | 585 | 118 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 134 | 567 | 114 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 542 | 108 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 121 | 510 | 100 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.69 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 113 | 475 | 92 | 38 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 440 | 83 | 37 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.12 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 96 | 404 | 74 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 5.21 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 68 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 77 | 28 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 79 | 31 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 77 | 32 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 72 | 33 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.12 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 67 | 32 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 5.21 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 98 | 590 | 2489 | 484 | 196 | 89 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 4.69 | 4.41 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 66 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 4.69 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 33 | 184 | 750 | 165 | 50 | 22 | 87% | 4.8 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 3.63 | 3.71 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 36 | 200 | 817 | 180 | 54 | 24 | 87% | 4.8 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 3.63 | 3.71 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brett Sears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.41 | 20.1% | 12.9% | 401 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 86 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 84 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 84 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 84 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 83 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.73 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.96 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 65 | +1.23 | 3.73 | 540 | 83 |
| Nate Karns R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 82 |
| Chase Anderson R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 82 |
| Brad Peacock R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 81 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 81 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.21 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 433 | 81 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 80 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.72 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 138 | +0.64 | 4.01 | 276 | 80 |
| Austin Voth R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.70 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.31 | 22.7% | 15.5% | 212 | +0.61 | 3.43 | 1,132 | 80 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.81 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.45 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 411 | +0.64 | 3.23 | 622 | 79 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 79 |
| Chris Stratton R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.36 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .328 | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 275 | -0.00 | 3.11 | 991 | 79 |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.97 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | 5.51 | 12.7% | 2.9% | 48 | +1.54 | 3.78 | 423 | 79 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 79 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 122 | 19.6% | 7.6% | 1.32 | 4.58 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |