Ryan Weathers
P
New York Yankees
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.56
FIP4.50
xFIP2.71
SIERA2.87
K%22.1%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%13.8%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5560
FB Velo
p7095.9
Whiff%
p6327.4%
K%
p9031.0%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SL+4.8 (28%)
SI (18%)
CH-0.8 (24%)
FB-3.4 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 7 | 7 | 18 | 83 | 18 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.44 | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 22 | 96 | 395 | 90 | 18 | 6 | 16.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 3.84 | 3.28 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 21 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 32 | 20 | 105 | 444 | 83 | 31 | 22 | 18.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.16 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 22 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 32 | 23 | 127 | 585 | 91 | 61 | 31 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 6.82 | 6.32 | -1.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 30 | 27 | 137 | 584 | 133 | 67 | 21 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 19 | 19 | 97 | 412 | 96 | 28 | 11 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 3.42 | 3.66 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 13 | 13 | 56 | 238 | 59 | 19 | 8 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 3.36 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 4 | 4 | 21 | 90 | 28 | 7 | 4 | 31.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.29 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 34 | 11 | 5 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.06 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 52 | 221 | 62 | 18 | 9 | 27.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 4.15 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 56 | 18 | 8 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.34 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 55 | 18 | 8 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 53 | 17 | 8 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SD | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 50 | 17 | 7 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SD | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 44 | 16 | 7 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SD | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 41 | 16 | 7 | 22.9% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SD | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 38 | 16 | 7 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 4.87 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 5.01 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SD | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 31 | 14 | 6 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 5.17 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 159 | 135 | 658 | 2831 | 538 | 241 | 109 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 4.71 | 4.70 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 41 | 200 | 861 | 164 | 73 | 33 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 4.71 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Weathers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 3.4% | — | 4.32 | 25.6% | 17.4% | 152 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 75 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 74 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.74 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .349 | 3.52 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.22 | 3.50 | 383 | 73 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 73 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 73 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | .259 | 3.84 | 16.6% | 6.3% | 30 | -1.00 | 1.71 | 206 | 72 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.56 | 3.04 | 120 | 71 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 71 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 71 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.03 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 3.2% | .257 | 4.47 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 193 | -0.56 | 3.08 | 264 | 71 |
| Henry Garcia L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.45 | 12.9% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .246 | 4.68 | 9.2% | -1.0% | 95 | +0.23 | 4.45 | 114 | 71 |
| Nolan Becker L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .313 | 5.48 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 13 | +1.32 | 3.71 | 105 | 71 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 70 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 70 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 70 |
| Patrick McCoy L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .336 | 4.31 | 15.4% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.51 | 3.80 | 113 | 70 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 70 |
| Hayden Howard L 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 200 | 70 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.70 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .318 | 4.65 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 140 | +0.95 | 3.70 | 332 | 70 |
| Derek Holland L 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.63 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.23 | 3.76 | 686 | 70 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2021
Service 3.384 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $5M | +$0.0M | ||