Ryan Weathers
P
New York Yankees
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92101vR 110
ERA3.90
FIP3.88
K%25.5%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%18.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p6127.0%
K%
p7526.9%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
SL+4.8 (31%)
SI (18%)
CH-0.8 (24%)
FB-3.4 (45%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 18 | 83 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 2.6 | 21.7% | 4.8% | 16.9% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 3.20 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 18 | 83 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 2.6 | 21.7% | 4.8% | 16.9% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 3.21 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 22 | 96 | 395 | 90 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.9% | 5.4% | 11.5% | 1.5% | 3.84 | 3.19 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 22 | 96 | 395 | 90 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.8% | 4.6% | 18.2% | 1.5% | 3.84 | 2.60 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 20 | 105 | 444 | 83 | 31 | 22 | 62% | 3.3 | 18.0% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 5.4% | 5.16 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 20 | 105 | 444 | 83 | 31 | 22 | 62% | 3.3 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 5.0% | 5.16 | 5.14 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 23 | 127 | 585 | 91 | 61 | 31 | 72% | 4.0 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.82 | 5.89 | -0.7 |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 23 | 127 | 585 | 91 | 61 | 31 | 72% | 4.0 | 15.6% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.82 | 6.29 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 27 | 137 | 584 | 133 | 67 | 21 | 90% | 4.6 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 4.72 | 4.90 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 27 | 137 | 584 | 133 | 67 | 21 | 90% | 4.6 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.61 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 97 | 412 | 96 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 15.5% | 3.2% | 3.42 | 3.79 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 97 | 412 | 96 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.3% | 6.8% | 16.5% | 2.7% | 3.42 | 3.46 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 56 | 238 | 59 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 3.36 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 56 | 238 | 59 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 4.3 | 24.8% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 3.4% | 3.36 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 18 | 18 | 98 | 409 | 110 | 27 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.9% | 6.6% | 20.3% | 3.9% | 4.15 | 3.81 | +1.8 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 65 | 275 | 70 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 3.7% | 3.90 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 70 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 3.8% | 3.97 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 163 | 684 | 180 | 47 | 26 | — | — | 26.3% | 6.9% | 19.5% | 3.8% | 4.05 | 3.84 | +3.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 163 | 687 | 180 | 47 | 26 | — | — | 26.2% | 6.8% | 19.4% | 3.8% | 4.08 | 3.86 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 51 | 216 | 54 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.1% | 7.4% | 17.7% | 3.7% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 52 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.9% | 7.5% | 17.4% | 3.8% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 49 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 7.7% | 16.6% | 4.0% | 4.50 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 54 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.1% | 7.4% | 17.7% | 3.8% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 53 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.9% | 7.5% | 17.4% | 3.9% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 49 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 7.7% | 16.6% | 4.1% | 4.58 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 125 | 110 | 592 | 2522 | 570 | 191 | 101 | 88% | 4.7 | 22.6% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 4.58 | 4.35 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 37 | 200 | 852 | 193 | 65 | 34 | 88% | 4.7 | 22.6% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 4.58 | 4.35 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 149 | 734 | 3150 | 620 | 261 | 120 | 86% | 4.2 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.58 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 41 | 200 | 858 | 169 | 71 | 33 | 86% | 4.2 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Weathers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | — | 4.43 | 24.8% | 17.3% | 148 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Jake Dahlberg L 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.22 | 22.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | .397 | 5.59 | 17.9% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.37 | 3.11 | 226 | 66 |
| Connor Prielipp L 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 184 | 66 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 63 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.18 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.45 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.27 | 2.82 | 845 | 63 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 61 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.34 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .310 | 3.59 | 23.9% | 16.0% | 205 | -0.75 | 3.21 | 372 | 61 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.39 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.13 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.74 | 3.39 | 300 | 60 |
| Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.35 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.35 | 22.9% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 302 | 60 |
| Dietrich Enns L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.31 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .280 | 5.74 | 15.4% | 6.6% | 266 | +2.43 | 2.80 | 740 | 59 |
| Carlos Rodón L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.35 | 29.1% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .319 | 2.25 | 33.9% | 26.9% | 311 | -1.10 | 2.22 | 1,347 | 59 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 59 |
| Zach Thornton L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 59 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 437 | 58 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 58 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 242 | 57 |
| Ben Brecht L 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 21.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 118 | 57 |
| Michael Plassmeyer L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.51 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .319 | 4.85 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 239 | +0.34 | 3.41 | 675 | 57 |
| Avery Weems L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.13 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | .323 | 5.19 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.06 | 2.46 | 227 | 57 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 174 | 57 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 24.2% | 7.7% | 1.44 | 4.43 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |