Ryan Weathers

P New York Yankees

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	19	19	97	3.42	3.46	23.3%	6.8%	2.3	K 21.8% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.78
2025	25	MIX3 levels	13	13	56	3.36	3.86	24.8%	8.0%	1.0	K 22.2% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.30
2026	26	MLBNYY	25	25	137	3.60	3.55	25.2%	6.7%	3.1
2027PROJ	27	MLBNYY	18	18	107	3.95	3.95	25.0%	6.9%	1.9
2028PROJ	28	MLBNYY	17	17	100	4.12	4.16	24.9%	7.0%	1.6
2029PROJ	29	MLBNYY	15	15	90	4.25	4.33	24.3%	7.3%	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.384First FA2029

2027Arb-2$6M2028Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo68

K%66

xwOBA vs44

Form1.23 ERA (proj 3.95) · K 18.8% (proj 25.0%) · BB 7.1% (proj 6.9%) ▼▼ last 90d · 29 IP through Oct 27

CompsMatthew Boyd (age 27) · Jorge De La Rosa (age 27) · David Peterson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 109

ERA3.95

FIP3.95

K%25.0%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%18.2%

Proj IP107

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p6625.2%

xwOBA vs

p440.319

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.384 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.9	$15M	+$9M
2028	Arb-3	$9M	+1.6	$12M	+$4M
Totals		$15M		$27M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	18	83	18	4	2	100%	2.6	21.7%	4.8%	16.9%	2.4%	3.44	3.20	—
2018	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	18	83	18	4	2	100%	2.6	21.7%	4.8%	16.9%	2.4%	3.44	3.21	—
2019	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	96	395	90	18	6	100%	4.4	16.9%	5.4%	11.5%	1.7%	3.84	3.30	—
2019	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	96	395	90	18	6	100%	4.4	22.8%	4.6%	18.2%	1.5%	3.84	2.60	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	20	105	444	83	31	22	62%	3.3	18.0%	7.2%	10.7%	4.9%	5.16	5.17	+0.3
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	20	105	444	83	31	22	62%	3.3	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	5.0%	5.16	5.14	+0.3
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	23	127	585	91	61	31	72%	4.0	13.7%	10.6%	3.1%	5.3%	6.82	6.20	-1.1
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	23	127	585	91	61	31	72%	4.0	15.6%	10.4%	5.1%	5.3%	6.82	6.29	-1.2
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	137	584	133	67	21	90%	4.6	20.6%	10.8%	9.8%	3.8%	4.72	4.82	+0.9
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	137	584	133	67	21	90%	4.6	22.8%	11.5%	11.3%	3.6%	4.72	4.61	+1.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	97	412	96	28	11	100%	5.1	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	3.2%	3.42	3.78	+1.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	97	412	96	28	11	100%	5.1	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	3.2%	3.42	3.78	+1.9
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	97	412	96	28	11	100%	5.1	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	2.7%	3.42	3.46	+2.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	56	238	59	19	8	100%	4.3	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	3.7%	3.36	4.30	+0.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	56	238	59	19	8	100%	4.3	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	3.7%	3.36	4.30	+0.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	56	238	59	19	8	100%	4.3	24.8%	8.0%	16.8%	3.4%	3.36	3.86	+1.0
2026	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	25	25	137	568	143	38	18	100%	5.5	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	3.0%	3.60	3.45	+3.3
2026	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	25	25	137	568	143	38	18	100%	5.5	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	3.0%	3.60	3.45	+3.3
2026	26	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	25	25	137	568	143	38	18	100%	5.5	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	3.2%	3.60	3.55	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			95	80	418	1780	378	135	68	84%	4.4	21.2%	7.6%	13.7%	3.8%	4.50	4.37	+5.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	NYY	18	18	107	452	113	31	14	100%	5.9	25.0%	6.9%	18.2%	3.1%	3.95	3.95	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	100	423	105	30	14	100%	5.9	24.9%	7.0%	17.9%	3.2%	4.00	4.04	+1.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	90	380	92	28	13	100%	6.0	24.3%	7.3%	17.1%	3.4%	4.12	4.20	+1.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	79	335	79	25	12	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.6%	16.1%	3.6%	4.29	4.41	+0.9
2031	31	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	67	283	65	22	11	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	3.8%	4.50	4.64	+0.6
2032	32	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	53	224	50	19	9	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.3%	13.8%	4.1%	4.74	4.89	+0.3
2033	33	MLB MLE	NYY	6	6	39	163	35	14	7	100%	6.4	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	4.3%	5.00	5.17	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	100	422	105	30	15	100%	5.9	24.9%	7.0%	17.9%	3.4%	4.12	4.16	+1.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	90	380	92	28	14	100%	6.0	24.3%	7.3%	17.1%	3.6%	4.25	4.33	+1.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	79	334	79	25	13	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.6%	16.1%	3.8%	4.42	4.54	+0.9
2031	31	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	67	283	65	22	11	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	4.1%	4.64	4.78	+0.6
2032	32	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	53	224	49	19	10	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.3%	13.8%	4.3%	4.89	5.04	+0.3
2033	33	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	39	165	35	14	8	100%	6.5	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	4.6%	5.16	5.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	151	846	3588	804	273	138	91%	5.1	22.4%	7.6%	14.8%	3.8%	4.48	4.28	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	36	200	848	190	65	33	91%	5.1	22.4%	7.6%	14.8%	3.8%	4.48	4.28	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		180	156	774	3309	651	265	122	87%	4.3	19.7%	8.0%	11.6%	3.7%	4.52	4.49	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	40	200	855	168	69	32	87%	4.3	19.7%	8.0%	11.6%	3.7%	4.52	4.49	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 15 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.58 (+0.35)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.40%	—	×0.860	21.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷0.903	×1.100	1.93%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 8 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.06 (+0.25)K% 36.1% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.11%	—	×0.860	31.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×0.900	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 80 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.04 (+0.28)K% 27.5% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.52%	—	×0.860	23.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.62%	—	×0.900	10.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.031	×1.100	2.94%

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 123 IPFIP 6.08 → 6.20 (+0.12)K% 15.6% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.60%	—	×0.880	13.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.11%	—	×1.050	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	5.50%	÷1.138	×1.100	5.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 6.08 → 6.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 10 IPFIP 4.08 → 4.25 (+0.17)K% 25.6% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.58%	—	×0.880	22.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.65%	—	×1.050	4.88%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷1.154	×1.100	4.43%

Result: FIP 4.08 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 96 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.30 (+0.71)K% 22.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.78%	—	×0.740	16.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.56%	—	×1.180	5.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.151	×1.300	1.72%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Padres 2 · 9 IPFIP 4.81 → 6.66 (+1.85)K% 21.4% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.680	14.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.250	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.000	×1.400	6.67%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.81 → 6.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 9 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.09 (+0.54)K% 22.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.95%	—	×0.740	16.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.44%	—	×1.180	2.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.176	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Weathers (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.20	24.3%	17.1%	269	+0.25	—	—	—
Matthew Boyd L 2018 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	22.4%	7.2%	4.0%	.252	4.32	26.2%	19.5%	324	+0.02	2.22	1,457	67
Jorge De La Rosa L 2008 · 3.77 FIP	27	SP-	3.77	22.4%	10.3%	2.3%	.310	3.70	23.0%	13.2%	366	-0.07	3.24	1,537	67
David Peterson L 2023 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP-	4.14	25.1%	10.7%	3.3%	.356	3.54	20.5%	11.2%	438	-0.60	2.81	1,078	66
Alex Wood L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	27	SP-	3.16	21.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.285	3.70	24.6%	18.1%	187	+0.54	2.66	1,258	64
James Paxton L 2016 · 3.09 FIP	27	SP	3.09	22.9%	5.1%	2.3%	.328	3.11	30.1%	22.8%	447	+0.02	2.46	1,022	63
Shane McClanahan L 2023 · 3.83 FIP	26	SP	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.274	3.44	21.8%	13.8%	118	-0.39	2.95	643	62
Nick Lodolo L 2024 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	24.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.274	4.02	21.4%	14.7%	265	+0.72	1.54	562	62
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	62
Casey Fossum L 2005 · 4.19 FIP	27	SP-	4.19	17.7%	7.9%	2.9%	.287	4.77	14.9%	5.8%	247	+0.58	3.50	782	60
Steven Matz L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	23.2%	8.6%	3.8%	.259	4.21	22.5%	15.9%	342	-0.12	3.19	1,226	60
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	59
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	58
Tyler Anderson L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.315	4.35	20.7%	12.2%	256	+0.33	3.10	1,288	58
Max Fried L 2021 · 3.11 FIP	27	SP	3.11	23.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.274	2.86	23.6%	17.7%	437	-0.25	2.51	1,448	57
Ted Lilly L 2003 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP	4.10	19.0%	7.1%	3.1%	.283	4.64	19.2%	9.3%	505	+0.54	3.61	1,975	57
Cole Ragans L 2024 · 2.89 FIP	26	SP	2.89	29.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.286	3.92	35.1%	24.6%	97	+1.03	2.48	623	57
Noah Cameron L 2024 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP	3.44	23.1%	7.0%	2.6%	.319	4.07	21.2%	13.6%	348	+0.63	2.96	644	57
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	56
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	56
Eric Lauer L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	27	SP	4.36	23.8%	8.9%	3.9%	.258	4.45	22.7%	14.8%	294	+0.09	3.74	1,097	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	79	22.7%	7.6%	1.41	4.36
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*