Ryan Weathers — OGILVIE

Ryan Weathers P New York Yankees

Age 26 LHP 6'1" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.0 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION137 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9098vR 107

ERA3.79

FIP3.76

K%24.5%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%17.4%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p6625.2%

xwOBA vs

p440.319

SL+4.8 (32%)

SI (21%)

CH-0.8 (25%)

FB-3.4 (43%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.384 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.7M
2027	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$9M	+$3M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+1.0	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$17M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	18	83	18	4	2	100%	2.6	21.7%	4.8%	16.9%	2.4%	3.44	3.20	—
2018	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	18	83	18	4	2	100%	2.6	21.7%	4.8%	16.9%	2.4%	3.44	3.21	—
2019	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	96	395	90	18	6	100%	4.4	16.9%	5.4%	11.5%	1.7%	3.84	3.30	—
2019	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	96	395	90	18	6	100%	4.4	22.8%	4.6%	18.2%	1.5%	3.84	2.60	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	20	105	444	83	31	22	62%	3.3	18.0%	7.2%	10.7%	4.9%	5.16	5.17	-0.3
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	20	105	444	83	31	22	62%	3.3	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	5.0%	5.16	5.14	-0.3
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	23	127	585	91	61	31	72%	4.0	13.7%	10.6%	3.1%	5.3%	6.82	6.20	-1.8
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	23	127	585	91	61	31	72%	4.0	15.6%	10.4%	5.1%	5.3%	6.82	6.29	-1.9
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	137	584	133	67	21	90%	4.6	20.2%	10.8%	9.3%	3.8%	4.72	4.86	+0.1
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	137	584	133	67	21	90%	4.6	20.2%	10.8%	9.3%	3.8%	4.72	4.86	+0.1
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	137	584	133	67	21	90%	4.6	22.8%	11.5%	11.3%	3.6%	4.72	4.61	+0.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	97	412	96	28	11	100%	5.1	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	3.2%	3.42	3.78	+1.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	97	412	96	28	11	100%	5.1	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	3.2%	3.42	3.78	+1.3
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	97	412	96	28	11	100%	5.1	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	2.7%	3.42	3.46	+1.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	56	238	59	19	8	100%	4.3	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	3.7%	3.36	4.32	+0.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	56	238	59	19	8	100%	4.3	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	3.7%	3.36	4.32	+0.4
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	56	238	59	19	8	100%	4.3	24.8%	8.0%	16.8%	3.4%	3.36	3.86	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			95	80	418	1780	378	135	68	84%	4.4	21.2%	7.6%	13.7%	3.8%	4.50	4.37	+2.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	25	25	137	568	143	38	18	100%	5.5	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	3.0%	3.60	3.45	+2.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	25	25	137	568	143	38	18	100%	5.5	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	3.0%	3.60	3.45	+2.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	NYY	25	25	137	568	143	38	18	100%	5.5	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	3.2%	3.60	3.56	+2.2
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	NYY	25	25	137	568	143	38	18	100%	5.5	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	3.2%	3.60	3.56	+2.2
ROS	26	MLB MLE	NYY	1	1	9	38	9	3	1	100%	9.0	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	3.3%	3.79	3.76	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	NYY	2	2	9	38	9	3	1	100%	4.5	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	3.5%	3.91	3.88	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	146	606	152	41	19	—	—	25.1%	6.7%	18.4%	3.2%	3.62	3.47	+2.6
FULL	26	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	146	618	152	41	19	—	—	24.6%	6.6%	18.1%	3.1%	3.62	3.57	+2.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	136	576	139	41	19	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.2%	17.0%	3.3%	4.18	4.18	+1.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	136	576	139	42	20	100%	5.9	24.1%	7.3%	16.7%	3.4%	4.23	4.26	+1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	130	551	129	42	20	100%	5.9	23.5%	7.6%	15.9%	3.6%	4.35	4.42	+0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	123	518	118	41	20	100%	6.1	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	3.8%	4.52	4.63	+0.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	114	483	106	40	19	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.2%	13.8%	4.0%	4.73	4.86	+0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	106	446	95	38	19	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	4.3%	4.96	5.12	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYY	23	23	136	574	139	41	20	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.2%	17.0%	3.6%	4.30	4.30	+1.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	23	23	136	574	138	42	21	100%	5.9	24.1%	7.3%	16.7%	3.7%	4.36	4.39	+1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYY	22	22	130	549	129	41	21	100%	5.9	23.5%	7.6%	15.9%	3.8%	4.48	4.55	+0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	NYY	20	20	123	519	118	41	21	100%	6.2	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	4.0%	4.66	4.77	+0.4
2031	31	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	114	481	106	40	21	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.2%	13.8%	4.3%	4.88	5.01	+0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	106	448	95	39	20	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	4.6%	5.12	5.28	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		221	206	1173	4968	1114	382	194	93%	5.3	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	3.9%	4.56	4.32	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	35	200	847	190	65	33	93%	5.3	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	3.9%	4.56	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		180	156	774	3309	647	265	122	87%	4.3	19.6%	8.0%	11.5%	3.7%	4.52	4.50	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	40	200	855	167	69	32	87%	4.3	19.6%	8.0%	11.5%	3.7%	4.52	4.50	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Weathers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	22.4%	7.8%	3.4%	—	4.28	23.9%	16.6%	403	-0.18	—	—	—
Jake Dahlberg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	22.5%	5.0%	4.6%	.397	5.36	17.9%	10.2%	100	+1.03	3.11	226	66
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	65
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	372	65
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	64
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	63
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	62
Tyson Guerrero L 2023 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	23.9%	9.8%	3.5%	.279	4.67	19.4%	7.6%	142	+0.41	4.26	250	61
Carlos Rodón L 2019 · 3.37 FIP	26	SP	3.37	29.1%	10.8%	2.5%	.319	2.26	33.9%	26.9%	311	-1.11	2.21	1,371	60
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	59
Ryan Rolison L 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	21.5%	6.9%	3.0%	.320	5.21	14.5%	9.5%	35	+1.40	3.81	386	59
Patrick Corbin L 2015 · 3.34 FIP	26	SP	3.34	20.6%	5.3%	2.4%	.312	3.46	24.1%	17.2%	545	+0.12	2.30	1,829	59
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.35	18.2%	9.2%	348	+0.19	4.07	614	59
Michael Plassmeyer L 2023 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP	4.47	20.5%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	4.59	19.5%	13.1%	216	+0.12	3.42	653	58
Derek Holland L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	16.7%	6.1%	4.3%	.270	4.63	18.8%	9.6%	414	-0.20	3.75	686	57
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	57
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	57
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	57
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	57
Steven Matz L 2017 · 4.58 FIP	26	SP	4.58	17.9%	5.4%	4.2%	.321	4.54	22.9%	15.4%	345	-0.04	3.19	1,220	57
Ben Brecht L 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	21.1%	3.9%	4.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	118	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	113	23.0%	7.7%	1.43	4.47
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01