Jamie Arnold — OGILVIE

Jamie Arnold P Midland RockHounds

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 188 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%23.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL5055

CMD4050

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.7	$10M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$10M	+1.6	$9M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$13M	+1.5	$8M	+$0.5M
Totals		$32M		$47M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	25	25	118	520	130	51	9	100%	4.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.1%	3.50	3.88	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	25	25	118	520	130	51	9	100%	4.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.1%	3.50	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	OAK	23	23	113	499	125	48	9	100%	4.9	25.1%	9.6%	15.4%	1.8%	3.57	3.19	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	OAK	2	2	5	21	5	3	0	100%	2.5	23.8%	14.3%	9.5%	0.0%	1.80	2.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	154	651	158	60	19	100%	5.3	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	2.9%	4.26	4.18	+1.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	OAK	31	31	175	739	184	65	21	100%	5.6	24.9%	8.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.15	4.06	+1.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	OAK	30	30	177	748	189	65	21	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.6%	16.6%	2.8%	4.07	4.00	+1.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	OAK	30	30	177	748	190	64	21	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.6%	16.8%	2.8%	4.02	3.99	+1.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	174	737	187	64	21	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.7%	16.7%	2.9%	4.02	4.03	+1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	OAK	28	28	169	715	180	63	21	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.8%	16.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.11	+1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	162	683	170	62	21	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.0%	15.9%	3.1%	4.17	4.24	+1.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	152	642	158	60	21	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	3.3%	4.32	4.42	+0.9
2035	31	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	142	598	145	58	21	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.7%	14.5%	3.6%	4.50	4.62	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	131	554	132	56	21	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	3.8%	4.71	4.85	+0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	120	508	118	53	21	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.5%	12.7%	4.1%	4.94	5.10	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	77	325	79	30	9	100%	5.5	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	2.8%	4.22	4.14	+0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	123	519	129	46	14	100%	5.6	24.9%	8.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.11	4.02	+1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	OAK	25	25	144	608	153	53	17	100%	5.8	25.2%	8.6%	16.6%	2.8%	4.03	3.96	+1.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	155	654	166	56	18	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.6%	16.8%	2.8%	3.98	3.95	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	158	667	169	58	19	100%	6.1	25.3%	8.7%	16.7%	2.8%	3.98	3.99	+1.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	156	659	166	58	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.8%	16.4%	2.9%	4.03	4.07	+1.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	OAK	25	25	150	633	158	57	19	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.0%	15.9%	3.1%	4.13	4.20	+1.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	142	600	148	56	20	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	3.3%	4.27	4.37	+0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	135	570	138	55	20	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.7%	14.5%	3.5%	4.45	4.57	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	OAK	21	21	125	528	125	53	20	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	3.7%	4.66	4.80	+0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	114	481	112	51	19	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.5%	12.7%	4.0%	4.88	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		250	250	1480	6248	1544	573	194	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	3.1%	4.23	3.88	+18.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	209	77	26	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	3.1%	4.23	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		25	25	118	520	105	56	11	100%	4.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.1%	3.50	3.88	+12.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	42	200	879	178	94	18	100%	4.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.1%	3.50	3.88	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jamie Arnold (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	23.1%	10.0%	2.9%	—	4.08	24.8%	15.9%	506	-0.31	—	—	—
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	82
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	81
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	79
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	79
Andre Davis L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.320	4.51	17.0%	8.8%	98	+0.37	4.14	154	78
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	78
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.26	473	76
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	76
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	75
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	74
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	73
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	73
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	73
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	73
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	72
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	72
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	72
Sean Manaea L 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	23.2%	9.6%	1.7%	.345	4.05	19.4%	13.2%	482	+0.77	3.28	1,494	71
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.8	146	24.7%	9.2%	1.22	4.26
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73