Jamie Arnold

P Midland RockHounds

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 188 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP45OGV rank#110ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	25	25	118	3.50	3.18	25.0%	9.8%	—	K 20.3% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.91
2027PROJ	23	MLBOAK	1	1	6	4.42	4.42	22.1%	10.5%	0.1
2028PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBOAK	9	9	52	4.26	4.19	23.2%	9.8%	0.7
2029PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBOAK	14	14	80	4.15	4.08	23.9%	9.4%	1.2

Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$4M2031Arb-2$6M2032Arb-3$8M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 75%

CompsPete Hansen (age 23) · Joe Whitman (age 22) · Connelly Early (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%22.1%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP96

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.5	$10M	+$7M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+1.5	$9M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+1.4	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$20M		$37M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	118	520	130	51	9	100%	4.7	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.2%	3.50	3.91	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	118	520	130	51	9	100%	4.7	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.2%	3.50	3.91	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	118	520	130	51	9	100%	4.7	25.0%	9.8%	15.2%	1.7%	3.50	3.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	OAK	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	6.0	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.42	4.42	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	112	474	110	46	13	100%	5.6	23.2%	9.8%	13.5%	2.7%	4.30	4.23	+1.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	118	496	119	46	13	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.4%	14.5%	2.7%	4.19	4.12	+1.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	124	523	127	48	14	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.2%	15.0%	2.7%	4.13	4.08	+1.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	120	508	123	47	14	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	2.8%	4.13	4.13	+1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	115	485	117	46	14	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.4%	14.6%	2.9%	4.18	4.21	+1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	107	452	108	44	14	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.7%	14.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.34	+1.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	97	410	96	41	13	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.2%	4.42	4.52	+1.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	87	367	85	38	13	100%	6.2	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	3.4%	4.60	4.72	+0.7
2036	32	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	77	323	73	35	12	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	3.7%	4.81	4.95	+0.4
2037	33	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	67	282	62	31	11	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.2%	11.0%	4.0%	5.04	5.20	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	52	220	51	21	6	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.8%	13.5%	2.6%	4.26	4.19	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	80	338	81	32	9	100%	5.7	23.9%	9.4%	14.5%	2.6%	4.15	4.08	+1.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	99	418	101	39	11	100%	6.2	24.3%	9.2%	15.0%	2.6%	4.09	4.04	+1.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	103	435	105	40	12	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	2.7%	4.09	4.09	+1.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	103	435	105	41	12	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.4%	14.6%	2.8%	4.14	4.17	+1.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	98	414	99	40	12	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.7%	14.2%	2.9%	4.24	4.30	+1.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	90	380	89	38	12	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.38	4.48	+0.9
2035	31	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	81	342	79	35	11	100%	5.8	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	3.3%	4.55	4.67	+0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	72	304	69	33	11	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	3.6%	4.76	4.90	+0.4
2037	33	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	63	266	59	30	10	100%	6.3	22.1%	11.2%	11.0%	3.9%	4.99	5.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	840	3548	837	348	106	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.33	3.99	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	83	25	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.33	3.99	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		25	25	118	520	106	55	11	100%	4.7	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.2%	3.50	3.91	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	42	200	879	178	93	19	100%	4.7	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.2%	3.50	3.91	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 113 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.91 (+0.72)K% 25.1% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.05%	—	×0.810	20.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.100	10.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.16%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 5 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.00 (+0.10)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.860	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jamie Arnold (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.14	23.8%	14.4%	354	-0.28	—	—	—
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	92
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	87
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	87
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	3.99	17.6%	7.2%	171	+0.40	3.59	280	87
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	86
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	86
Kevin Smith L 2019 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	21.2%	9.2%	1.4%	.337	5.78	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.52	3.26	248	85
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	85
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	84
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	84
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	84
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.91	23.7%	15.8%	468	+0.55	3.36	752	83
Shane McClanahan L 2019 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	23.3%	10.4%	1.7%	.315	3.07	29.0%	22.6%	290	-0.29	2.95	643	83
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	83
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.66	279	82
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	82
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	82
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	102	23.5%	9.8%	1.16	4.36
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11