David Parkinson

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	25	MIX2 levels	21	18	81	7.64	4.90	19.0%	7.3%	—	K 16.0% · BB 7.8% · FIP 5.44
2023	27	MIX2 levels	25	22	130	3.80	4.07	23.9%	9.5%	—	K 19.4% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.71
2024	28	AAAPHI	19	11	69	5.45	4.73	16.0%	8.8%	—	K 13.7% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.93
2025	29	No MLB games played
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBPHI	1	1	4	4.74	4.74	17.7%	8.5%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBPHI	2	2	15	4.84	4.93	17.8%	9.0%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsBrandon Mann (age 32) · Marlon Arias (age 30) · Jorge Castillo (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%17.7%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	124	491	141	35	5	95%	5.7	21.4%	8.4%	13.1%	1.3%	1.45	3.07	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	124	491	141	35	5	95%	5.7	28.7%	7.1%	21.6%	1.0%	1.45	2.20	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	22	22	119	487	118	39	10	100%	5.4	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.1%	4.08	3.70	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	22	22	119	487	118	39	10	100%	5.4	24.2%	8.0%	16.2%	2.1%	4.08	3.19	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	81	384	73	28	16	86%	3.9	16.0%	7.8%	8.1%	4.9%	7.64	5.44	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	81	384	73	28	16	86%	3.9	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.2%	7.64	4.90	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	130	566	135	54	18	88%	5.2	19.4%	10.3%	9.2%	3.6%	3.80	4.71	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	130	566	135	54	18	88%	5.2	23.9%	9.5%	14.3%	3.2%	3.80	4.07	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	19	11	69	307	49	27	10	58%	3.6	13.7%	7.9%	5.8%	3.6%	5.45	4.93	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	19	11	69	307	49	27	10	58%	3.6	13.7%	7.9%	5.8%	3.6%	5.45	4.93	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	19	11	69	307	49	27	10	58%	3.6	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	3.3%	5.45	4.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	PHI	1	1	4	17	3	1	1	100%	4.0	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.1%	4.74	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	41	173	31	16	6	100%	5.8	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	3.3%	4.84	4.93	+0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	PHI	2	2	15	63	11	6	2	100%	7.5	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	3.3%	4.84	4.93	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	64	11	6	2	100%	5.0	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	3.3%	4.84	4.55	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	80	27	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	3.3%	4.84	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		109	94	524	2235	414	196	67	86%	4.8	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	3.0%	4.12	4.29	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	36	200	853	158	75	25	86%	4.8	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	3.0%	4.12	4.29	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 69 IPFIP 4.65 → 4.93 (+0.28)K% 16.0% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.96%	—	×0.860	13.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.79%	—	×0.900	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷0.989	×1.100	3.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.65 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 126 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.71 (+0.75)K% 24.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.99%	—	×0.810	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.34%	—	×1.100	10.27%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.050	×1.200	3.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 4 IPFIP 6.06 → 6.30 (+0.24)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×0.900	13.50%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.028	×1.100	5.35%

Result: FIP 6.06 → 6.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 78 IPFIP 4.86 → 5.44 (+0.58)K% 18.1% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.13%	—	×0.880	15.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.47%	—	×1.050	7.84%
HR / BF /BF	4.27%	÷0.957	×1.100	4.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 4.86 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAReading Fightin Phils · 119 IPFIP 3.20 → 3.70 (+0.51)K% 24.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.23%	—	×0.810	19.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.01%	—	×1.100	8.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷1.182	×1.200	2.08%

Result: FIP 3.20 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALakewood BlueClaws · 95 IPFIP 2.00 → 3.01 (+1.01)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.03%	—	×0.740	22.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.79%	—	×1.180	8.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷0.966	×1.300	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Clearwater Threshers · 29 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.28 (+0.65)K% 24.1% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.07%	—	×0.770	18.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.197	×1.250	0.97%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 139).

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Parkinson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	17.7%	8.5%	3.1%	—	4.93	17.8%	8.8%	41	+0.19	—	—	—
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	81
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	79
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	78
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	74
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	73
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	73
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	72
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	72
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	71
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	71
Kelvin Marte L 2019 · 5.25 FIP	31	SP	5.25	12.0%	10.8%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	360	70
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	69
Enrique Lechuga L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	31	SP	3.78	10.5%	6.1%	1.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	137	68
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	66
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	65
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	64
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	63
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	63
Daniel Rodriguez L 2016 · 4.46 FIP	31	SP	4.46	19.3%	11.1%	2.9%	.333	4.32	16.9%	8.2%	226	-0.14	2.89	391	61
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	17.8%	8.8%	1.23	4.79
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*