Edian Espinal — OGILVIE

Edian EspinalC Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 S/R 5'7" / 205 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION390 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†105

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .300 / .222

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP304

ISO141

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$129M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 61 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT61

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$13M	+$13M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$12M	+$11M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.2	$10M	+$10M
2034	Arb-1	$6M	+2.0	$9M	+$6M
2035	Arb-2	$9M	+1.8	$7M	+$4M
2036	Arb-3	$11M	+1.6	$6M	+$2M
Totals		$29M		$57M	+$46M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	21	A MLE	DET	—	390	341	90	8	5	6	38	74	7	17	4	264	350	370	719	106	317	19	10	318	102	+1	+2	+0	+7	+8	1.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A RAW	DET	—	280	225	70	6	4	7	47	40	5	10	4	311	440	467	907	156	348	14	17	404	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ RAW	DET	—	110	103	32	3	2	0	4	13	2	7	0	311	349	379	727	68	352	12	4	325	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A MLE	DET	0%	10	9	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	222	300	222	522		309	20	10	323	105	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	21	A MLE	DET	—	400	350	92	8	5	6	39	76	7	17	4	263	348	366	714	103	316	19	10	318	102	+1	+2	+0	+7	+9	1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	51%	454	402	102	14	4	10	43	94	6	10	2	254	335	383	718	129	308	21	9	324	106	+3	+1	+0	+8	+10	2.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	73%	490	433	110	16	4	11	47	101	7	11	3	254	337	386	722	132	307	21	10	327	108	+4	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	79%	520	458	118	17	4	13	50	107	7	12	3	258	340	397	737	140	307	21	10	329	109	+6	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	82%	520	458	118	17	4	13	50	107	7	12	3	258	340	397	737	140	307	21	10	330	110	+6	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	83%	520	458	118	17	4	13	50	107	7	12	3	258	340	397	737	140	307	21	10	331	110	+6	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	82%	520	457	117	17	4	13	51	107	7	12	3	256	340	396	736	140	307	21	10	331	110	+6	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	81%	520	457	117	17	4	13	51	108	7	11	3	256	340	396	736	140	306	21	10	330	109	+6	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	79%	520	457	117	17	4	13	51	109	7	10	2	256	340	396	736	140	305	21	10	328	108	+5	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	78%	520	457	116	17	4	12	51	110	7	9	2	254	338	387	725	133	304	21	10	325	106	+4	+1	-2	+9	+11	2.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	DET	77%	504	442	112	16	4	12	50	108	7	8	2	253	339	389	728	136	302	21	10	321	104	+2	+1	-3	+9	+11	2.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	DET	77%	489	432	106	15	3	11	48	107	6	6	1	245	329	370	700	125	299	22	10	316	100	-0	+1	-4	+9	+11	1.7
2038	33	MLB MLE	DET	77%	473	418	100	13	3	10	46	106	6	5	1	239	323	356	680	117	296	22	10	309	95	-3	+1	-4	+8	+10	1.3
2039	34	MLB MLE	DET	72%	439	388	90	11	3	9	43	101	5	3	1	232	317	345	662	113	291	23	10	301	90	-5	+0	-5	+8	+10	0.7
2040	35	MLB MLE	DET	68%	377	333	76	9	3	7	36	90	5	2	0	228	313	336	649	108	285	24	10	292	84	-7	+0	-6	+7	+8	0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	51%	234	207	52	7	2	5	22	49	3	5	1	251	332	377	709	126	303	21	9	309	106	+2	+1	+0	+4	+5	1.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	73%	355	313	79	11	3	8	34	73	5	8	2	252	335	383	719	131	302	21	10	312	108	+3	+1	+0	+6	+8	1.8
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	79%	410	362	91	13	3	10	39	84	6	9	2	251	334	387	721	135	302	20	10	314	109	+4	+1	+0	+7	+9	2.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	82%	425	375	96	14	4	10	41	87	6	9	2	256	339	395	734	139	302	20	10	315	110	+5	+1	+0	+8	+9	2.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	83%	432	381	97	14	4	10	42	89	6	10	2	255	338	391	729	136	302	21	10	316	110	+5	+1	+0	+8	+9	2.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	82%	427	376	95	14	3	10	42	88	6	9	2	253	337	386	723	133	302	21	10	316	110	+5	+1	+0	+8	+9	2.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	81%	424	373	94	14	3	10	42	88	6	9	2	252	337	386	723	134	301	21	10	315	109	+5	+1	-1	+8	+9	2.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	79%	413	363	91	13	3	10	41	86	6	8	2	251	337	386	722	135	301	21	10	313	108	+4	+1	-1	+7	+9	2.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	78%	406	358	89	13	3	9	40	86	5	7	2	249	333	377	710	128	300	21	10	311	106	+3	+1	-2	+7	+9	1.8
2036	31	MLB CTX	DET	77%	390	343	85	12	3	9	39	84	5	6	1	248	333	379	712	131	298	22	10	307	104	+2	+1	-2	+7	+8	1.6
2037	32	MLB CTX	DET	77%	376	331	80	11	3	8	37	82	5	5	1	242	327	366	693	124	295	22	10	302	100	-0	+1	-3	+7	+8	1.3
2038	33	MLB CTX	DET	77%	363	319	76	10	3	7	36	81	5	4	1	238	325	354	679	116	291	22	10	295	95	-2	+0	-3	+6	+8	1.0
2039	34	MLB CTX	DET	72%	317	279	64	8	2	6	31	73	4	2	1	229	315	337	652	108	286	23	10	287	90	-4	+0	-4	+6	+7	0.5
2040	35	MLB CTX	DET	68%	255	225	50	6	2	4	25	61	3	1	0	222	308	320	628	98	281	24	10	279	84	-5	+0	-4	+5	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5227	4605	1139	160	41	116	511	1111	71	92	21	247	332	375	707	128	301	21	10	308	104	+27	+10	-19	+93	+113	22.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	141	20	5	14	64	138	9	11	3	246	332	372	704	126	300	21	10	308	104	+3	+1	-2	+12	+14	2.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6876	6059	1519	213	52	160	668	1464	91	123	29	251	334	382	716	132	304	21	10	322	104	+33	+13	-25	+123	+149	29.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	143	20	5	15	63	138	9	12	3	250	333	380	714	131	303	21	10	322	104	+3	+1	-2	+12	+14	2.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	6.6	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#3Marco Scutarolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,435 PA	8.2	5,435	76	55	278	342	389	+45	+27	27.4	25.6
/162	664	9	7	+5.5	+3.3	3.4	pk7: 24
#4Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	7.4	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.3	25.1
/162	664	17	6	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#5Carlos Ruizlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,069 PA	6.1	4,069	71	25	264	350	391	+73	+6	25.2	24.6
/162	664	12	4	+11.9	+1.0	4.1	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	8.4	5,547	129	99	252	331	385	+90	+48	28.7	23.1
/162	664	15	12	+10.8	+5.7	3.4	pk7: 17
#6Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edian Espinal (OGILVIE)	21	56→61	38→43	53→58	60	252/335/376	124	309	7	10	21%	10%	105	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Vaughn Grissom 2022 · A	21	53→62	42→45	54→55	49	253/325/364	110	312	9	12	21%	8%	97	+1.1	271/334/394	123	324	11	17	19%	7%	107	+1.9	270/336/389	118	323	11	18	19%	7%	104	+1.3
✕Edgar Quero 2023 · A	20	48→57	51→50	47→40	51	240/336/412	172	309	18	8	27%	10%	114	+2.3	241/321/361	120	299	12	3	22%	9%	96	+1.0	245/321/344	99	301	10	1	21%	9%	90	+0.4
✕Juan Brito 2023 · A	21	47→48	46→50	48→45	54	232/318/372	139	281	13	11	22%	10%	97	+1.1	223/303/356	133	270	13	9	21%	9%	88	+0.4	215/296/345	130	258	13	9	21%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Adael Amador 2023 · A	20	51→54	46→50	46→55	55	252/334/383	131	290	14	14	18%	10%	105	+1.7	229/302/359	130	266	15	21	19%	9%	88	+0.4	216/294/338	122	249	13	22	19%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	48→54	47→55	53→45	45	235/299/375	141	327	14	8	31%	8%	90	+0.6	251/308/406	155	312	17	5	24%	7%	101	+1.4	256/316/410	154	310	18	4	23%	8%	102	+1.3
●Alejandro Kirk 2020 · A	21	51→57	45→50	50→40	56	249/325/385	136	279	12	4	15%	10%	102	+1.5	256/332/399	143	283	15	3	15%	10%	108	+1.9	263/349/394	131	277	16	0	11%	11%	110	+1.4
●Justin Yurchak 2018 · A	21	51→61	44→40	49→40	53	251/319/370	119	297	12	4	19%	9%	96	+1.0	230/292/323	93	290	7	3	22%	8%	76	-0.4	278/341/383	104	343	10	2	20%	8%	105	+1.0
●Wander Franco 2021 · A	20	53→57	44→55	47→55	53	259/313/384	126	277	10	10	12%	7%	97	+1.1	271/327/430	159	295	14	14	13%	7%	113	+2.3	278/337/452	174	298	16	20	12%	8%	118	+2.0
●Kolten Wong 2012 · A	21	51→61	45→50	48→55	48	251/301/378	127	283	11	12	16%	6%	91	+0.7	254/297/365	111	293	9	19	16%	5%	86	+0.3	271/355/410	138	308	11	16	15%	9%	112	+1.7
✕Addison Russell 2014 · A	20	47→53	49→55	58→50	45	233/304/395	162	313	15	16	29%	8%	97	+1.1	240/303/397	157	305	17	9	26%	7%	97	+1.1	239/310/406	168	295	19	5	25%	8%	97	+0.9
●Angel Salome 2007 · A	21	52→62	46→50	47→45	44	255/293/389	134	292	13	6	18%	5%	91	+0.7	275/311/408	133	324	12	4	18%	5%	102	+1.5	290/326/423	133	343	12	2	19%	5%	110	+1.2
✕Devon Travis 2014 · A	23	58→62	46→50	53→50	48	285/338/420	135	322	13	13	16%	6%	115	+2.4	274/321/414	140	319	13	12	18%	6%	107	+1.8	280/323/427	147	327	14	10	18%	6%	109	+1.3
●Jordan Walker 2023 · AA	21	54→56	50→55	54→50	43	261/318/421	160	343	16	16	28%	7%	108	+1.9	242/301/387	145	313	15	11	26%	7%	94	+0.9	239/296/396	156	308	18	13	27%	7%	92	+0.7
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	50→52	49→55	51→50	45	253/303/401	148	297	17	9	21%	6%	98	+1.2	227/306/381	154	270	16	12	22%	9%	95	+0.9	224/326/406	183	249	21	12	19%	12%	105	+1.6
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	49→55	41→45	50	49	236/301/348	112	284	7	12	19%	7%	84	+0.2	250/311/362	112	306	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Richi Sanchez 2014 · A	20	52	40→45	50	57	243/333/344	100	295	6	10	18%	11%	96	+1.0	217/286/295	78	282	3	7	22%	8%	67	-1.1	202/252/280	79	255	0	6	20%	6%	47	-0.6
✕Jorbit Vivas 2022 · A	21	53→55	46→45	47→50	47	261/324/398	137	294	13	7	16%	6%	105	+1.7	233/314/345	112	264	10	11	15%	8%	90	+0.6	220/309/323	103	252	9	14	16%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2006 · A	21	51→55	50→60	45→40	41	253/302/409	156	322	18	5	27%	6%	99	+1.3	238/303/381	143	302	15	3	25%	8%	93	+0.8	239/302/451	213	309	26	2	30%	8%	107	+1.3
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	50→51	46→45	49→50	47	248/302/374	126	296	14	11	21%	7%	91	+0.7	233/316/354	121	279	10	13	19%	9%	92	+0.7	238/315/361	123	274	12	9	17%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Alen Hanson 2013 · A	20	49→52	46→50	56→60	45	240/293/385	146	299	11	20	23%	6%	90	+0.6	234/274/361	127	295	9	22	23%	5%	77	-0.3	246/282/378	132	296	11	30	20%	4%	81	-0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps