Edian Espinal — OGILVIE

Edian EspinalC Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 S/R 5'7" / 205 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION245 act + 163 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .326 / .367

PA163

HR3

K%23

BB%10

BABIP307

ISO125

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE64

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$14M	+$14M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$13M	+$13M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.5	$12M	+$11M
2034	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$10M	+$8M
2035	Arb-2	$7M	+2.1	$8M	+$6M
2036	Arb-3	$9M	+1.8	$7M	+$4M
Totals		$23M		$64M	+$55M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	DET	—	245	210	53	5	3	3	27	52	5	9	4	252	351	348	699	95	316	21	11	318	102	+0	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.2
YTD	21	A	DET	—	245	201	60	5	4	4	36	37	5	9	4	299	417	423	840	124	344	15	15	378	147	+13	+0	+0	+4	+7	2.5
ROS	21	A	DET	0%	163	144	35	5	2	3	16	38	2	4	1	242	326	367	694	125	305	23	10	309	95	-1	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.7
ROS	21	MLB	DET	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		300	—	—	294	83	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	DET	—	245	211	53	5	3	3	27	52	5	9	4	251	351	346	697	95	314	21	11	318	102	+0	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.2
TOT	21	A	DET	—	408	354	88	10	5	6	43	90	7	13	5	248	341	356	697	107	313	22	11	314	99	-1	+1	+0	+7	+12	1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	DET	48%	520	457	111	15	5	10	51	122	7	10	3	243	328	363	691	120	305	23	10	312	97	-2	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.3
2028	23	MLB	DET	68%	520	457	112	16	5	11	51	120	7	10	3	245	330	374	704	129	305	23	10	315	99	-1	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.5
2029	24	MLB	DET	74%	520	457	112	16	5	11	51	120	7	10	3	245	330	374	704	129	305	23	10	317	101	+0	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.6
2030	25	MLB	DET	77%	520	457	113	16	5	12	51	119	7	10	3	247	332	383	715	136	305	23	10	318	102	+1	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.6
2031	26	MLB	DET	78%	520	457	113	16	5	12	51	119	7	10	3	247	332	383	715	136	305	23	10	318	102	+1	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.6
2032	27	MLB	DET	77%	520	456	113	16	5	12	52	120	7	10	3	248	334	384	718	136	304	23	10	318	102	+1	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.6
2033	28	MLB	DET	77%	520	456	111	16	4	11	52	120	7	9	3	243	330	368	699	125	304	23	10	317	101	+1	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.5
2034	29	MLB	DET	75%	520	456	110	16	4	11	52	121	7	9	3	241	328	366	694	125	303	23	10	316	100	-0	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.3
2035	30	MLB	DET	73%	520	456	109	15	4	11	52	123	7	8	3	239	326	362	688	123	302	24	10	313	98	-1	+0	-2	+9	+15	2.1
2036	31	MLB	DET	73%	504	441	104	14	4	10	51	120	7	7	2	236	325	354	678	118	300	24	10	309	94	-3	+1	-3	+9	+14	1.8
2037	32	MLB	DET	79%	489	430	99	13	4	9	49	119	7	5	2	230	319	342	661	112	297	24	10	303	90	-5	+0	-4	+9	+14	1.4
2038	33	MLB	DET	83%	473	417	95	12	4	9	47	117	6	4	1	228	315	341	655	113	293	25	10	297	85	-8	+0	-4	+8	+13	1.0
2039	34	MLB	DET	78%	439	386	84	10	3	7	44	112	6	3	1	218	307	313	621	96	288	26	10	289	79	-10	+0	-5	+8	+12	0.5
2027	22	MLB	DET	48%	251	220	52	7	2	5	25	59	4	5	2	236	325	355	680	118	300	24	10	297	85	-4	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.8
2028	23	MLB	DET	68%	354	311	74	10	3	7	35	82	5	7	2	238	325	357	682	119	300	23	10	300	88	-5	+1	+0	+6	+10	1.2
2029	24	MLB	DET	74%	385	339	81	11	3	8	38	89	5	7	2	239	325	360	684	121	300	23	10	302	89	-5	+1	+0	+7	+11	1.4
2030	25	MLB	DET	77%	400	352	85	12	4	8	39	92	6	8	3	241	327	366	694	125	300	23	10	303	90	-4	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.5
2031	26	MLB	DET	78%	406	357	87	12	4	9	40	93	6	8	3	244	330	375	705	132	300	23	10	303	90	-4	+0	+0	+7	+12	1.5
2032	27	MLB	DET	77%	401	352	86	12	4	9	40	92	6	8	3	244	332	378	709	134	300	23	10	303	90	-4	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.5
2033	28	MLB	DET	77%	398	349	83	12	3	8	40	92	6	7	2	238	327	358	685	120	299	23	10	303	90	-5	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.4
2034	29	MLB	DET	75%	388	341	81	11	3	8	39	91	5	6	2	238	325	358	682	120	299	23	10	301	88	-5	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.2
2035	30	MLB	DET	73%	382	336	79	11	3	8	38	90	5	6	2	235	322	357	679	122	298	24	10	298	86	-6	+0	-2	+7	+11	1.1
2036	31	MLB	DET	73%	367	322	75	10	3	7	37	88	5	5	2	233	321	348	669	115	295	24	10	294	83	-7	+0	-2	+7	+10	0.8
2037	32	MLB	DET	79%	385	338	77	10	3	7	39	94	5	4	1	228	317	337	654	109	292	24	10	289	80	-9	+0	-3	+7	+11	0.7
2038	33	MLB	DET	83%	392	345	77	10	3	7	39	97	5	3	1	223	311	330	641	107	289	25	10	283	75	-11	+0	-3	+7	+11	0.4
2039	34	MLB	DET	78%	345	304	67	8	3	6	34	88	4	2	1	220	307	326	633	105	284	26	10	276	69	-12	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4854	4267	1004	136	41	97	483	1147	67	76	26	235	323	355	677	119	298	24	10	297	85	-81	+5	-15	+87	+138	13.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	134	18	5	13	65	154	9	10	3	235	322	352	674	117	297	24	10	297	85	-11	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.8
Career	—			—	6748	5927	1421	196	59	139	670	1590	91	109	34	240	326	363	689	123	303	24	10	311	96	-28	+8	-20	+121	+191	27.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	137	19	6	13	65	153	9	10	3	240	328	363	690	123	303	24	10	311	96	-3	+1	-2	+12	+18	2.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	11	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
	/162	664	22	1	250	313	411	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,176	107	81	240	323	363	+92	+44	21.4	17.4
	/162	664	14	10	240	323	363	+11.9	+5.6	2.7	pk7: 13
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edian Espinal (OGILVIE)	21	52→57	37→42	50→55	64	248/341/356	107	313	6	13	22%	11%	99	+1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Brito 2023 · A	21	48→49	47→50	48→45	53	234/319/377	143	286	13	11	22%	10%	98	+1.6	227/305/369	142	277	14	9	22%	9%	91	+1.1	218/298/359	141	264	15	9	22%	9%	83	+0.4
✕Shawn Zarraga 2009 · A	20	48	40	51→45	49	226/308/322	96	306	7	7	26%	9%	79	+0.3	223/295/301	78	305	5	6	26%	7%	69	-0.4	277/347/362	84	322	4	2	14%	8%	106	+0.8
●Jemile Weeks 2009 · A	22	50→60	41→45	52→55	50	239/316/342	103	298	8	14	22%	8%	88	+0.9	246/304/363	117	295	10	16	19%	7%	88	+0.9	257/326/351	94	310	3	20	17%	8%	89	+1.0
✕Adael Amador 2023 · A	20	51→54	47→50	46→55	54	253/334/387	134	294	15	14	19%	10%	107	+2.2	226/297/361	135	263	16	21	20%	8%	85	+0.7	207/280/337	129	240	15	25	21%	8%	68	-0.4
●Justin Yurchak 2018 · A	21	51→61	44→45	49→40	53	251/319/370	119	297	12	4	19%	9%	95	+1.4	229/292/323	94	289	7	3	22%	8%	72	-0.2	283/345/393	110	351	11	2	21%	8%	110	+1.4
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	50→55	41→45	50	49	236/301/346	110	285	6	12	19%	7%	82	+0.5	249/307/362	113	307	9	14	21%	7%	89	+0.9	254/315/362	108	309	9	16	20%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Luis Alvarez 2011 · A	21	47	42→45	48→45	45	228/296/337	109	289	9	6	24%	7%	78	+0.2	219/274/328	109	275	10	5	24%	5%	66	-0.6	209/262/317	108	250	12	1	21%	4%	55	-0.3
★Geraldo Perdomo 2021 · A	21	48→56	38→45	50→55	51	226/304/308	82	280	5	17	20%	8%	74	-0.1	202/292/288	86	269	6	12	25%	10%	64	-0.8	259/359/388	129	285	11	20	12%	12%	115	+2.3
✕Henry Henry 2008 · A	21	52	41→40	50→60	53	246/331/344	98	291	8	14	18%	9%	95	+1.4	238/298/316	78	271	5	21	13%	6%	72	-0.2	250/305/317	67	277	4	30	11%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Richi Sanchez 2014 · A	20	52	40→45	50	57	243/333/344	100	295	6	10	18%	11%	95	+1.4	217/286/295	78	282	3	7	22%	8%	63	-0.9	202/252/280	79	255	0	6	20%	6%	40	-0.6
●Alejandro Kirk 2020 · A	21	51→57	45→50	50→40	55	247/323/379	133	279	11	4	16%	10%	100	+1.7	254/330/396	142	281	15	3	15%	10%	108	+2.3	262/347/393	131	276	16	0	11%	11%	111	+1.7
●Vaughn Grissom 2022 · A	21	53→63	42→50	54→55	49	251/323/361	110	311	9	12	21%	8%	95	+1.4	276/339/408	132	330	13	17	19%	7%	114	+2.7	278/342/406	128	330	12	18	19%	7%	111	+2.1
✕Luis Lara 2017 · A	22	48	42→45	52→45	50	233/294/345	112	273	9	8	18%	8%	79	+0.3	206/271/299	93	276	7	5	26%	8%	57	-1.2	170/241/242	72	237	6	1	29%	8%	27	-0.8
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	47→49	41→45	49→45	50	221/327/317	97	287	8	9	24%	9%	88	+0.9	227/313/341	114	287	11	7	24%	7%	88	+0.9	227/317/342	114	286	11	5	23%	7%	86	+0.4
✕Carlos Vidal 2017 · A	21	48	43→45	49→50	48	234/302/348	114	288	10	12	22%	7%	83	+0.6	232/278/326	94	303	6	7	24%	5%	66	-0.6	237/281/332	95	308	5	6	24%	5%	65	-0.3
●Max Moroff 2013 · A	20	50→56	39→50	48→50	52	238/315/322	84	301	6	12	22%	10%	82	+0.5	207/268/292	85	295	5	10	29%	7%	54	-1.4	235/313/371	135	309	14	10	27%	10%	91	+0.9
✕Francisco Mejía 2017 · A	21	52→61	42→55	45→40	42	251/292/358	107	308	9	4	21%	5%	81	+0.4	247/287/388	141	296	16	4	22%	4%	88	+0.9	256/302/428	172	302	17	1	21%	5%	103	+1.0
✕Jorbit Vivas 2022 · A	21	54→56	47→45	47→50	47	264/327/402	138	297	14	7	16%	6%	108	+2.3	234/315/348	114	265	10	11	15%	8%	89	+1.0	221/310/327	107	252	10	14	16%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Ambiorix Rincon 2007 · A	21	50	41→45	50	48	241/290/347	106	273	8	10	15%	6%	77	+0.1	218/269/305	87	276	4	9	21%	6%	57	-1.2	195/243/269	74	254	0	11	22%	5%	36	-0.8
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	50	47→45	49→50	47	249/302/385	136	294	15	11	21%	7%	92	+1.2	235/320/365	130	278	12	13	19%	10%	95	+1.4	231/321/358	127	270	11	12	18%	10%	91	+1.0