Edian Espinal — OGILVIE

Edian EspinalC Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 S/R 5'7" / 205 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†104

AVG/OBP/SLG.257 / .329 / .382

PA320

HR6

SB6

K%22

BB%8

ISO126

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$109M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 63 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT63

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$12M	+$11M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$9M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.7	$8M	+$8M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+1.4	$6M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$12M		$41M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	110	103	32	3	2	0	4	13	2	7	0	311	349	379	727	68	352	12	4	325	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	280	225	70	6	4	7	47	40	5	10	4	311	440	467	907	156	348	14	17	404	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	110	104	28	2	2	0	3	16	2	7	0	269	303	327	630	58	308	15	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	280	240	65	5	4	6	32	54	5	10	4	271	368	400	768	129	312	19	11	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	344	91	7	5	6	35	71	7	17	4	265	345	366	711	102	314	18	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	390	328	102	9	6	7	51	53	7	17	4	311	415	439	854	128	349	14	13	382	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	345	91	7	5	6	35	71	7	17	4	264	345	365	710	101	311	18	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	345	91	7	5	6	35	71	7	17	4	264	345	365	710	101	311	18	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	0%	500	448	117	20	4	10	42	110	6	10	2	260	332	385	717	126	321	22	8	321	104	+2	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	51%	433	388	100	17	3	9	37	94	5	9	2	260	332	391	723	131	318	22	9	323	105	+3	+1	+0	+8	+9	2.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	69%	483	433	113	19	4	11	41	105	6	10	2	260	333	395	728	135	317	22	8	325	106	+4	+1	+0	+9	+10	2.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	77%	511	456	120	21	4	12	44	111	6	10	2	260	333	397	729	137	316	22	9	326	107	+4	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	81%	520	464	121	21	4	12	45	113	6	10	2	259	332	397	729	138	315	22	9	326	106	+4	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	81%	520	464	121	21	4	12	45	113	6	10	2	258	331	394	725	136	315	22	9	324	105	+3	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	81%	520	464	120	21	4	11	45	115	6	8	2	256	329	389	718	133	314	22	9	321	104	+2	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	79%	520	464	118	20	4	11	45	116	6	6	2	254	326	383	709	129	313	22	9	318	101	+1	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	78%	513	459	115	20	3	10	44	116	5	4	1	251	323	375	698	124	311	23	9	313	98	-1	+0	-2	+9	+11	1.8
2036	31	MLB MLE	DET	84%	485	436	107	18	3	9	41	112	5	1	1	246	318	365	683	119	308	23	8	307	94	-3	-0	-3	+9	+11	1.3
2037	32	MLB MLE	DET	89%	453	408	98	16	3	8	38	106	4	0	1	241	312	352	664	111	304	23	8	299	89	-6	-0	-4	+8	+10	0.8
2038	33	MLB MLE	DET	92%	412	371	87	14	2	7	34	99	4	0	0	235	304	338	642	103	300	24	8	290	83	-9	+0	-4	+7	+9	0.4
2039	34	MLB MLE	DET	87%	358	323	73	11	2	5	29	89	3	0	0	227	295	320	615	93	294	25	8	279	75	-11	+0	-5	+6	+8	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	51%	223	199	51	9	2	4	19	48	3	5	1	255	328	382	710	127	313	22	9	318	105	+1	+1	+0	+4	+5	1.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	69%	333	297	77	13	3	7	29	72	4	7	2	255	329	386	715	131	312	22	9	320	106	+2	+1	+0	+6	+7	1.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	77%	394	352	90	15	3	9	34	85	5	8	2	255	329	388	716	133	311	22	9	321	107	+3	+1	+0	+7	+9	2.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	81%	421	377	96	17	3	9	36	91	5	8	2	255	328	388	716	133	310	22	9	320	106	+3	+1	+0	+8	+9	2.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	81%	421	377	95	16	3	9	36	92	5	8	2	253	327	385	712	132	310	22	9	319	105	+3	+1	+0	+8	+9	2.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	81%	421	377	95	16	3	9	36	93	5	6	2	252	325	381	706	129	309	22	9	316	104	+2	+0	-1	+8	+9	1.9
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	79%	411	369	92	16	3	8	35	92	4	5	1	249	322	374	697	125	308	22	9	313	101	+1	+1	-1	+7	+9	1.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	78%	400	359	89	15	3	8	34	91	4	3	1	246	319	367	686	120	306	23	8	308	98	-1	+0	-2	+7	+9	1.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	DET	84%	408	367	89	15	3	7	34	94	4	1	1	242	314	357	671	115	303	23	8	302	94	-3	-0	-2	+7	+9	1.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	DET	89%	401	361	85	14	2	7	33	94	4	0	1	237	308	345	653	108	300	23	8	295	89	-5	-0	-3	+7	+9	0.7
2038	33	MLB CTX	DET	92%	377	340	78	12	2	6	31	91	3	0	0	231	301	330	631	100	295	24	8	286	83	-8	+0	-4	+7	+8	0.3
2039	34	MLB CTX	DET	87%	312	282	64	10	2	4	25	77	2	0	0	223	292	313	605	90	289	25	8	275	75	-9	+0	-4	+6	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4522	4057	1001	168	32	87	382	1020	48	51	15	247	319	368	687	122	307	23	8	308	99	-11	+4	-17	+81	+98	15.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	145	24	5	13	55	147	7	7	2	249	321	374	695	125	310	23	8	308	99	-2	+1	-2	+12	+14	2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	6438	5760	1459	239	48	129	550	1430	73	91	23	253	326	379	705	125	314	22	9	314	99	-8	+7	-20	+108	+131	22.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	147	24	5	13	56	144	7	9	2	253	326	378	704	125	312	22	9	314	99	-1	+1	-2	+12	+14	2.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	6.6	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#2Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	7.4	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.3	25.1
/162	664	17	6	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#3Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.3	4,842	97	57	252	321	377	+86	+40	21.3	18.0
/162	664	13	8	+11.9	+5.5	2.9	pk7: 15
#4Jordy Mercerlast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,394 PA	5.1	3,394	66	13	257	315	387	+35	+50	17.0	16.7
/162	664	13	3	+6.9	+9.8	3.3	pk7: 17
#5Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#6Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edian Espinal (OGILVIE)	22	58→63	38→43	53→58	58	257/329/382	125	321	6	6	22%	8%	104	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2024 · A	22	52→61	43→45	53→50	48	249/311/362	113	301	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/314/367	111	304	10	14	18%	7%	94	+0.9	261/323/368	107	303	10	16	17%	7%	95	+0.6
●Kyle Teel 2024 · AA	22	54→57	40→45	52→45	50	251/328/347	96	346	7	12	27%	10%	95	+0.9	255/336/376	121	350	13	10	28%	10%	105	+1.7	256/343/380	124	351	15	9	28%	11%	106	+1.2
●Chase Meidroth 2024 · AA	23	52→58	43→40	52→50	53	249/341/361	113	320	11	12	24%	10%	103	+1.6	259/348/358	99	312	9	12	18%	11%	105	+1.7	263/352/365	101	313	10	11	17%	11%	107	+1.8
✕Adael Amador 2024 · AA	21	52→56	48→50	49→55	54	257/333/399	142	291	15	16	17%	9%	109	+2.0	235/310/364	129	275	14	21	19%	9%	92	+0.7	231/310/357	126	266	13	22	18%	9%	88	+0.4
●Vaughn Grissom 2022 · A	21	54→64	42→50	54→55	49	259/332/371	113	319	9	12	21%	8%	101	+1.4	276/340/405	129	329	12	17	19%	7%	112	+2.2	277/343/400	124	329	12	18	19%	7%	109	+1.7
✕Francisco Mejía 2018 · AA	22	54→62	46→55	47→40	43	265/304/397	132	310	14	6	20%	5%	97	+1.1	247/292/400	153	298	17	4	22%	5%	94	+0.9	257/303/425	168	304	16	1	21%	4%	105	+0.8
✕Josh Rutledge 2012 · A	23	57→61	45→50	54→50	42	272/322/407	135	347	11	12	24%	6%	106	+1.8	258/302/398	140	317	13	14	22%	5%	97	+1.1	255/301/392	138	311	12	13	22%	5%	95	+0.8
●Wander Franco 2023 · MLB	22	56→60	48→55	53→55	53	275/330/432	157	294	13	11	12%	7%	114	+2.4	268/328/444	176	289	19	24	14%	8%	117	+2.6	274/336/469	195	291	21	37	14%	8%	126	+2.7
✕Osleivis Basabe 2023 · AA	22	57→62	40→45	56→50	46	272/317/378	106	321	5	17	17%	6%	97	+1.1	251/297/359	108	305	7	13	19%	5%	85	+0.2	242/288/351	110	293	9	11	20%	5%	78	-0.2
●Devon Travis 2014 · A	23	58→62	46→50	53→50	48	286/339/422	136	324	13	13	16%	6%	116	+2.5	278/326/420	142	324	13	12	18%	6%	110	+2.1	285/329/434	149	334	14	10	18%	6%	114	+1.5
✕Iván De Jesús Jr. 2010 · AA	23	60→68	40→45	51→50	52	283/349/376	93	340	7	12	18%	9%	108	+1.9	252/298/338	86	316	6	7	21%	6%	80	-0.1	264/317/362	99	347	5	4	24%	7%	92	+0.5
●Matt Duffy 2014 · A	23	51→61	45	53→50	50	251/311/373	122	290	12	16	18%	8%	94	+0.9	281/327/393	112	334	9	15	18%	6%	104	+1.6	289/335/400	111	340	8	14	17%	6%	109	+1.6
●Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2012 · AA	22	55→63	44→45	51→55	42	268/300/390	122	311	12	19	18%	4%	94	+0.9	257/289/340	83	307	7	11	18%	4%	77	-0.3	273/306/372	99	313	10	11	16%	4%	91	+0.4
✕James Skelton 2008 · A	22	53→57	42→40	51→50	53	255/323/364	109	305	8	13	19%	9%	97	+1.1	234/327/323	89	310	7	13	24%	12%	89	+0.5	226/327/311	85	298	5	10	23%	12%	86	+0.1
●Brad Miller 2013 · AA	23	56→57	43→60	52→50	48	267/323/386	119	334	10	13	22%	8%	101	+1.4	255/315/399	144	306	14	11	21%	8%	101	+1.4	234/315/416	182	282	20	10	24%	10%	107	+1.5
✕Alek Thomas 2022 · AAA	22	54→57	49→50	51→50	45	262/323/425	164	341	14	12	26%	7%	110	+2.1	245/295/386	141	292	14	11	20%	6%	91	+0.7	241/287/384	143	290	14	13	22%	5%	87	+0.2
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	52→57	46→50	49→40	55	253/327/392	139	286	12	5	16%	9%	105	+1.7	260/338/400	140	280	16	2	13%	10%	111	+2.1	263/347/394	131	277	16	0	11%	10%	113	+1.5
✕Chun-Hsiu Chen 2011 · A	22	53→60	46→50	47→45	47	257/317/401	144	325	11	6	24%	7%	103	+1.5	249/309/381	132	344	12	6	29%	8%	95	+1.0	242/305/367	124	340	12	7	30%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Ryan Kalish 2010 · AA	22	51→53	44→50	52→55	48	249/311/370	121	317	12	14	25%	8%	93	+0.8	244/303/374	130	304	13	23	23%	8%	91	+0.7	236/290/359	124	297	12	26	24%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Garin Cecchini 2014 · AA	23	59→65	41→45	56→55	52	277/349/390	113	352	6	21	22%	9%	112	+2.2	237/296/331	94	310	7	13	24%	7%	79	-0.2	221/273/302	81	286	7	12	24%	6%	61	-1.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps