Edian Espinal

C Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 S/R 5'7" / 205 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#145ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	A+/ADET	390	.311/.415/.439	7	17	100	—	.270/.350/.379
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBDET	500	.259/.331/.383	9	10	103	1.1
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBDET	118	.256/.329/.382	2	2	105	0.5
2029PROJ51% MLB	24	MLBDET	202	.257/.330/.387	4	4	107	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 2.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

K%97

Speed97

Whiff%92

Z-Con%84

Chase%61

wRC+46

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 4.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsEdgar Quero (age 21) · Adael Amador (age 21) · Juan Brito (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†103

AVG/OBP/SLG.257 / .329 / .379

PA210

HR4

K%22

BB%8

ISO124

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$66M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.6M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$23M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	110	103	32	3	2	0	4	13	2	7	0	311	349	379	727	68	352	12	4	325	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	280	225	70	6	4	7	47	40	5	10	4	311	440	467	907	156	348	14	17	404	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	110	104	28	2	2	0	3	16	2	7	0	269	303	327	630	58	308	15	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	280	240	65	5	4	6	32	54	5	10	4	271	368	400	768	129	312	19	11	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	344	91	7	5	6	35	71	7	17	4	265	345	366	711	102	314	18	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	390	328	102	9	6	7	51	53	7	17	4	311	415	439	854	128	349	14	13	382	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	345	91	7	5	6	35	71	7	17	4	264	345	365	710	101	311	18	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	345	91	7	5	6	35	71	7	17	4	264	345	365	710	101	311	18	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	0%	500	448	116	20	4	9	42	110	6	10	2	259	331	383	714	124	321	22	8	320	103	+2	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	35%	338	302	79	13	3	7	29	73	4	7	2	261	333	390	723	130	320	22	9	324	105	+2	+1	-1	+6	+7	1.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	51%	399	357	94	16	3	9	34	86	5	8	2	261	334	395	729	134	319	22	9	326	107	+3	+1	-1	+7	+9	1.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	60%	435	389	101	17	3	10	38	94	5	9	2	261	334	398	731	137	318	22	9	327	107	+4	+1	-1	+8	+9	2.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	65%	445	399	103	18	3	10	38	96	5	9	2	260	333	398	731	138	317	22	9	326	107	+4	+1	-1	+8	+10	2.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	66%	445	398	103	18	3	10	39	97	5	8	2	258	331	396	727	137	315	22	9	325	106	+3	+1	-1	+8	+10	2.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	67%	445	399	102	18	3	10	38	98	5	7	2	256	329	391	720	134	314	22	9	322	104	+2	+1	-2	+8	+10	1.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	66%	445	399	101	17	3	10	38	99	5	5	2	254	326	384	711	131	312	22	9	318	102	+1	+0	-2	+8	+10	1.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	65%	437	393	99	17	3	9	37	99	4	3	1	251	323	376	699	126	311	23	8	313	98	-1	+0	-3	+8	+9	1.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	DET	71%	402	361	89	15	3	8	34	93	4	0	1	246	318	366	684	120	307	23	8	307	94	-3	-0	-4	+7	+9	0.9
2037	32	MLB MLE	DET	76%	363	327	78	13	2	6	30	85	3	0	1	241	311	353	665	113	303	23	8	300	89	-5	-0	-4	+6	+8	0.5
2038	33	MLB MLE	DET	80%	311	280	66	11	2	5	25	75	3	0	0	234	304	338	642	104	299	24	8	290	83	-6	+0	-5	+6	+7	0.1
2039	34	MLB MLE	DET	75%	246	222	51	8	1	4	20	61	2	0	0	226	294	320	614	95	292	25	8	279	75	-7	+0	-5	+4	+5	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	35%	118	106	27	5	1	2	10	26	1	2	1	256	329	382	711	126	315	22	8	319	105	+1	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	51%	202	181	47	8	2	4	17	44	2	4	1	257	330	387	717	130	314	22	8	321	107	+2	+0	-0	+4	+4	1.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	60%	260	233	60	10	2	6	22	56	3	5	1	257	330	389	719	132	313	22	8	322	107	+2	+1	-1	+5	+6	1.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	65%	289	259	65	11	2	6	25	63	3	6	1	256	329	389	718	133	312	22	9	321	107	+2	+1	-1	+5	+6	1.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	66%	295	264	67	12	2	6	26	64	3	5	1	254	327	387	714	133	310	22	9	320	106	+2	+1	-1	+5	+6	1.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	67%	299	268	67	12	2	6	26	66	3	5	1	252	325	382	707	130	309	22	9	317	104	+1	+1	-1	+5	+6	1.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	66%	294	264	65	11	2	6	25	66	3	3	1	249	323	376	698	126	308	22	9	313	102	+1	+0	-2	+5	+6	1.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	65%	286	257	64	11	2	6	24	65	3	2	1	246	319	368	687	122	306	23	8	309	98	-1	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.9
2036	31	MLB CTX	DET	71%	287	258	63	11	2	5	24	66	3	0	1	242	314	358	672	116	303	23	8	303	94	-2	-0	-3	+5	+6	0.6
2037	32	MLB CTX	DET	76%	276	248	60	10	2	5	23	65	3	0	0	237	308	346	654	109	299	24	8	295	89	-4	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.4
2038	33	MLB CTX	DET	80%	247	223	51	8	1	4	20	59	2	0	0	230	300	331	631	101	294	24	8	286	83	-5	+0	-4	+4	+5	0.1
2039	34	MLB CTX	DET	75%	185	167	38	6	1	3	15	46	1	0	0	222	291	314	604	92	288	25	8	275	75	-6	+0	-4	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3038	2728	674	115	21	59	257	686	30	32	9	247	319	370	688	122	308	23	8	309	100	-6	+3	-21	+54	+66	9.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	144	25	4	13	55	147	6	7	2	247	318	370	688	123	307	23	8	309	100	-1	+1	-4	+12	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5311	4758	1206	196	39	108	453	1173	59	77	22	253	326	379	705	126	313	22	9	315	100	-3	+5	-30	+88	+107	17.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	148	24	5	13	55	144	7	9	3	254	326	380	705	125	315	22	8	315	100	-0	+1	-4	+12	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 280 PAwOBA .399 → .333 (−65)K% 14.3% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.29%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.79%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	11.58%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.39%
Singles /BIP	28.65%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.993	—	26.16%
Doubles /BIP	3.24%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.993	—	2.67%
Triples /BIP	2.16%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.993	—	1.95%
Home runs /BIP	3.78%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	3.03%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .399 → .333; ISO .156 → .132; BABIP .348 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 110 PAwOBA .320 → .271 (−49)K% 11.8% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.82%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	15.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.64%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	2.61%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.45%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.958	×1.012	26.75%
Doubles /BIP	3.33%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.958	×1.012	2.62%
Triples /BIP	2.22%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.958	×1.012	1.83%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .320 → .271; ISO .068 → .054; BABIP .352 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kurt Suzukilast yr '22 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,163 PA	9.3	6,163	143	20	255	314	388	+110	-35	22.7	20.5
/162	664	15	2	+11.9	-3.8	2.4	pk7: 18
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
/162	664	24	1	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#4Michael Barrett'98-'09 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,873 PA	5.8	3,873	98	11	252*	306*	406*	+61	-5	12.1	12.8
/162	664	17	2	+10.5	-0.9	2.1	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	4.9	3,246	65	38	253	321	378	+58	-18	14.3	12.2
/162	664	13	8	+11.9	-3.7	2.9	pk7: 10
#5Damian Miller'97-'07 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,558 PA	5.4	3,558	87	5	251*	315*	396*	+62	-0	12.5	11.6
/162	664	16	1	+11.6	-0.0	2.3	pk7: 11
#6Dave Rader'71-'80 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,702 PA	4.1	2,702	30	8	254*	323*	380*	+47	+0	9.3	9.4
/162	664	7	2	+11.5	+0.0	2.3	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edian Espinal (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	257/329/379	123	321	4	4	22%	8%	103	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Edgar Quero 2024 · AA	21	50→58	45→50	43→40	53	239/334/366	127	305	12	5	24%	11%	102	+1.5	248/321/358	110	304	12	3	21%	8%	95	+0.9	248/318/344	96	299	11	1	20%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Adael Amador 2024 · AA	21	52→56	48→50	49→55	54	257/333/399	142	291	15	16	17%	9%	109	+2.0	235/310/364	129	275	14	21	19%	9%	92	+0.7	231/310/357	126	266	13	22	18%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Juan Brito 2024 · AAA	22	49→50	46→50	43→45	54	240/323/378	138	287	13	8	20%	10%	100	+1.3	222/300/353	131	271	13	10	22%	9%	86	+0.3	210/289/336	126	255	12	10	22%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Francisco Mejía 2018 · AA	22	54→62	46→55	47→40	43	265/304/397	132	310	14	6	20%	5%	97	+1.1	247/292/400	153	298	17	4	22%	5%	94	+0.9	257/303/425	168	304	16	1	21%	4%	105	+0.8
✕Brooks Lee 2023 · A	22	50→51	45→50	41→45	51	245/311/369	125	289	13	6	20%	8%	93	+0.8	244/296/379	135	284	13	6	19%	7%	90	+0.6	243/290/392	149	264	19	6	16%	6%	91	+0.6
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	48→52	41→45	48→45	51	225/337/325	100	294	8	9	24%	9%	95	+1.0	235/325/347	112	296	10	7	23%	7%	95	+0.9	237/330/347	110	299	10	5	22%	7%	95	+0.5
●Kyle Teel 2024 · AA	22	54→57	40→45	52→45	50	251/328/347	96	346	7	12	27%	10%	95	+0.9	255/336/376	121	350	13	10	28%	10%	105	+1.7	256/343/380	124	351	15	9	28%	11%	106	+1.2
✕Chun-Hsiu Chen 2011 · A	22	53→60	46→50	47→45	47	257/317/401	144	325	11	6	24%	7%	103	+1.5	249/309/381	132	344	12	6	29%	8%	95	+1.0	242/305/367	124	340	12	7	30%	8%	88	+0.4
●Chase Meidroth 2024 · AA	23	52→58	43→40	52→50	53	249/341/361	113	320	11	12	24%	10%	103	+1.6	259/348/358	99	312	9	12	18%	11%	105	+1.7	263/352/365	101	313	10	11	17%	11%	107	+1.8
✕Nelson Quiroz 2024 · A	22	47	44→40	49→40	49	232/294/354	122	277	11	6	20%	8%	84	+0.1	243/290/320	77	279	4	3	14%	6%	74	-0.6	263/309/325	62	294	2	0	11%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Cole Young 2024 · A	21	51→52	45	50	54	244/332/376	133	293	10	12	20%	10%	103	+1.6	242/323/366	124	285	11	11	18%	9%	97	+1.1	242/321/366	124	279	12	9	17%	9%	95	+0.9
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	52→57	46→50	49→40	55	253/327/392	139	286	12	5	16%	9%	105	+1.7	260/338/400	140	280	16	2	13%	10%	111	+2.1	263/347/394	131	277	16	0	11%	10%	113	+1.5
✕Cooper Ingle 2024 · A	22	51→56	39→50	48→40	60	236/332/330	94	292	5	11	19%	12%	93	+0.8	248/339/379	131	306	11	5	21%	12%	106	+1.8	245/342/386	141	308	13	3	23%	12%	106	+1.4
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2007 · AA	22	47→54	48→60	43→40	47	237/303/382	145	296	15	3	25%	8%	94	+0.9	246/309/392	146	320	16	3	27%	8%	98	+1.2	233/308/421	188	311	23	2	31%	10%	106	+1.3
●Luis Campusano 2021 · A	22	53→56	47→50	45→30	49	263/319/402	140	300	15	3	18%	7%	103	+1.6	246/301/384	138	299	15	3	22%	6%	93	+0.8	260/336/420	160	301	19	1	20%	10%	113	+1.4
✕J.R. Towles 2006 · A	22	55→53	47→50	49→50	44	266/331/410	144	326	12	15	22%	6%	110	+2.1	251/316/396	145	293	15	12	19%	6%	102	+1.5	240/312/382	142	276	16	11	19%	6%	95	+0.6
●Max Ramirez 2007 · A	22	50→52	45→50	45→40	51	244/321/369	125	316	13	3	26%	10%	97	+1.1	247/326/398	151	331	17	3	28%	9%	106	+1.8	241/324/395	153	325	18	2	29%	9%	104	+1.0
✕Brayan Rocchio 2023 · AAA	22	47→56	47→45	46→50	44	233/294/368	135	288	14	13	24%	6%	87	+0.4	234/302/353	119	283	9	16	20%	8%	86	+0.3	225/297/350	125	260	12	16	18%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Jorbit Vivas 2023 · A	22	51→57	44→45	47→50	51	249/323/369	120	275	11	4	14%	7%	98	+1.2	233/320/339	106	267	9	14	16%	9%	91	+0.6	227/320/324	97	263	8	18	15%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2024 · A	22	52→61	43→45	53→50	48	249/311/362	113	301	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/314/367	111	304	10	14	18%	7%	94	+0.9	261/323/368	107	303	10	16	17%	7%	95	+0.6

Edian Espinal

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps