Spencer Schwellenbach
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 2.7 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 115 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9586vR 77
ERA3.43
FIP3.35
K%26.0%
BB%3.8%
K-BB%22.3%
ROS IP115
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8797.1
Whiff%
p6928.3%
K%
p6524.9%
xwOBA vs
p680.294
FB+9.7 (45%)
CT+3.7 (12%)
SI (10%)
CU (11%)
SL-2.8 (18%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 65 | 255 | 55 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 4.1 | 14.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 2.49 | 4.02 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 65 | 255 | 55 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 4.1 | 21.6% | 6.3% | 15.3% | 1.2% | 2.49 | 2.75 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 169 | 675 | 178 | 32 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.3% | 5.1% | 19.1% | 2.5% | 2.93 | 3.08 | +4.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 169 | 675 | 178 | 32 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.4% | 4.7% | 21.6% | 2.2% | 2.93 | 2.71 | +5.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 17 | 17 | 111 | 434 | 108 | 17 | 13 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.9% | 3.9% | 21.0% | 3.0% | 3.09 | 3.14 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 17 | 17 | 111 | 434 | 108 | 17 | 13 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.9% | 3.9% | 21.0% | 3.0% | 3.09 | 3.14 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 77 | 326 | 85 | 12 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.0% | 3.8% | 22.3% | 2.9% | 3.43 | 3.35 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 117 | 495 | 129 | 19 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.0% | 3.8% | 22.2% | 2.9% | 3.40 | 3.39 | +2.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 117 | 495 | 128 | 20 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 4.0% | 21.9% | 3.0% | 3.44 | 3.47 | +2.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 120 | 20 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.3% | 4.2% | 21.1% | 3.2% | 3.55 | 3.63 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 105 | 445 | 109 | 20 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.6% | 4.5% | 20.1% | 3.4% | 3.72 | 3.84 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 98 | 415 | 99 | 20 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 4.9% | 19.0% | 3.6% | 3.93 | 4.07 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 91 | 383 | 88 | 20 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 5.3% | 17.8% | 3.9% | 4.17 | 4.32 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 83 | 352 | 78 | 20 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 5.7% | 16.5% | 4.1% | 4.43 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 122 | 18 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 26.0% | 3.8% | 22.2% | 2.9% | 3.40 | 3.39 | +2.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 121 | 19 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.9% | 4.0% | 21.9% | 3.0% | 3.44 | 3.47 | +2.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 113 | 19 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.3% | 4.2% | 21.1% | 3.2% | 3.55 | 3.63 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 104 | 19 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.6% | 4.5% | 20.1% | 3.4% | 3.72 | 3.84 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 94 | 19 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 4.9% | 19.0% | 3.6% | 3.93 | 4.07 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 84 | 19 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 5.3% | 17.8% | 3.9% | 4.17 | 4.32 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 74 | 19 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 5.7% | 16.5% | 4.1% | 4.43 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 153 | 153 | 922 | 3839 | 949 | 171 | 126 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 4.5% | 20.3% | 3.3% | 3.63 | 3.38 | +21.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 832 | 206 | 37 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 4.5% | 20.3% | 3.3% | 3.63 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 62 | 62 | 344 | 1364 | 309 | 73 | 35 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.6% | 5.4% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 2.90 | 3.28 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 792 | 179 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.6% | 5.4% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 2.90 | 3.28 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Schwellenbach (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.35 | 26.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | — | 3.49 | 25.7% | 21.7% | 347 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Strasburg R 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 27 | SP | 2.70 | 29.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | .308 | 2.81 | 29.5% | 22.9% | 453 | +0.11 | 2.42 | 811 | 69 |
| Brandon Woodruff R 2026 · 2.81 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.81 | 29.0% | 6.1% | 2.5% | .315 | 2.93 | 30.3% | 24.0% | 406 | +0.12 | 2.61 | 1,247 | 61 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 61 |
| Jacob deGrom R 2027 · 2.58 FIP | 27 | SP | 2.58 | 27.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% | .269 | 2.68 | 28.8% | 23.0% | 566 | +0.10 | 0.75 | 1,489 | 61 |
| Yu Darvish R 2029 · 2.90 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.90 | 30.6% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.86 | 29.1% | 21.2% | 405 | +0.96 | 1.91 | 1,253 | 61 |
| Masahiro Tanaka R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.83 | 22.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | .242 | 3.65 | 23.6% | 18.5% | 534 | -0.18 | 3.33 | 918 | 60 |
| Paul Skenes R 2024 · 2.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 2.67 | 29.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.08 | 456 | 60 |
| Michael Pineda R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.13 | 23.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | .330 | 3.78 | 25.6% | 19.4% | 272 | +0.65 | 2.00 | 786 | 60 |
| George Kirby R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.17 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | .287 | 3.26 | 24.0% | 18.5% | 236 | +0.09 | 2.16 | 840 | 59 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.90 | 24.9% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .268 | 4.41 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 340 | +1.51 | 2.90 | 806 | 59 |
| Frankie Montas R 2026 · 2.77 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.77 | 26.1% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.52 | 25.2% | 17.9% | 384 | +0.75 | 2.77 | 1,009 | 59 |
| Bryan Woo R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.93 | 24.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 596 | 58 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2027 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.23 | 29.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .259 | 2.94 | 32.4% | 24.1% | 298 | -0.29 | 1.85 | 613 | 58 |
| Cam Schlittler R 2025 · 2.71 FIP | 25 | SP | 2.71 | 29.2% | 5.3% | 2.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 428 | 58 |
| Dustin Crenshaw R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.34 | 16.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 11.4% | 168 | +0.59 | 3.34 | 238 | 58 |
| Logan Gilbert R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.78 | 24.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | .271 | 3.24 | 28.6% | 23.6% | 454 | -0.54 | 3.22 | 1,084 | 58 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.41 | 20.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | .315 | 3.66 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 312 | +0.25 | 2.95 | 819 | 57 |
| Tylor Megill R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.99 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .302 | 4.02 | 22.1% | 12.5% | 323 | +0.03 | 3.01 | 603 | 57 |
| Braxton Ashcraft R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.16 | 27.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 407 | 57 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 24.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 264 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 100 | 24.7% | 4.5% | 1.30 | 3.73 |
| Ross Stripling ('24) | 9 | 94 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 1.32 | 4.17 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |
| David Price ('22) | 7 | 132 | 24.3% | 6.2% | 1.06 | 3.46 |
| Michael Pineda ('22) | 7 | 109 | 22.9% | 5.0% | 1.43 | 4.35 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Hyun Jin Ryu ('23) | 7 | 101 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 1.17 | 3.27 |