Spencer Schwellenbach

Spencer Schwellenbach P Atlanta Braves

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 3.6 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9587vR 79

ERA3.43

FIP3.34

K%26.0%

BB%3.8%

K-BB%22.3%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$38M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8797.1

Whiff%

p6928.3%

p6524.9%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

FB+9.7 (45%)

CT+3.7 (12%)

SI (10%)

CU (11%)

SL-2.8 (18%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.721 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$21M	+$20M
2028	Arb-1	$8M	+2.6	$18M	+$12M
2029	Arb-2	$12M	+2.1	$13M	+$5M
2030	Arb-3	$15M	+1.7	$10M	+$0.1M
Totals		$36M		$63M	+$37M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	65	255	55	16	3	100%	4.1	14.5%	8.5%	6.0%	1.9%	2.49	4.00	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	65	255	55	16	3	100%	4.1	14.5%	8.5%	6.0%	1.9%	2.49	4.00	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	65	255	55	16	3	100%	4.1	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	1.2%	2.49	2.75	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	169	675	178	32	15	100%	5.8	24.3%	5.1%	19.1%	2.5%	2.93	3.05	+3.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	169	675	178	32	15	100%	5.8	24.3%	5.1%	19.1%	2.5%	2.93	3.05	+3.9
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	169	675	178	32	15	100%	5.8	26.4%	4.7%	21.6%	2.2%	2.93	2.71	+4.7
2025	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	17	17	111	434	108	17	13	100%	6.5	24.9%	3.9%	21.0%	3.0%	3.09	3.14	+2.4
2025	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	17	17	111	434	108	17	13	100%	6.5	24.9%	3.9%	21.0%	3.0%	3.09	3.14	+2.4
2025	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	17	17	111	434	108	17	13	100%	6.5	24.9%	3.9%	21.0%	3.0%	3.09	3.14	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			38	38	234	934	235	39	27	100%	6.2	25.2%	4.2%	21.0%	2.9%	3.23	3.09	+5.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	ATL	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	2.0	26.0%	3.8%	22.3%	2.9%	3.43	3.34	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	154	648	169	25	19	100%	5.9	26.0%	3.8%	22.2%	2.9%	3.40	3.38	+2.9
2028	28	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	154	648	168	26	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	4.0%	21.9%	3.0%	3.44	3.47	+2.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	147	619	157	26	20	100%	6.1	25.3%	4.2%	21.1%	3.2%	3.55	3.63	+2.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	138	582	143	26	20	100%	6.0	24.6%	4.5%	20.1%	3.4%	3.72	3.83	+1.8
2031	31	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	128	543	129	26	20	100%	6.1	23.8%	4.9%	19.0%	3.6%	3.93	4.07	+1.3
2032	32	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	119	502	116	26	19	100%	5.9	23.1%	5.3%	17.8%	3.9%	4.16	4.32	+0.8
2033	33	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	109	461	102	26	19	100%	6.1	22.2%	5.7%	16.5%	4.1%	4.42	4.60	+0.4
2034	34	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	99	419	89	26	19	100%	5.8	21.3%	6.2%	15.1%	4.4%	4.71	4.90	0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	ATL	24	24	146	616	160	24	18	100%	6.1	26.0%	3.8%	22.2%	2.9%	3.40	3.38	+2.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	ATL	24	24	146	616	160	25	19	100%	6.1	25.9%	4.0%	21.9%	3.0%	3.44	3.47	+2.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	139	587	148	25	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	4.2%	21.1%	3.2%	3.55	3.63	+2.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	ATL	22	22	131	553	136	25	19	100%	6.0	24.6%	4.5%	20.1%	3.4%	3.72	3.83	+1.7
2031	31	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	122	515	123	25	19	100%	6.1	23.8%	4.9%	19.0%	3.6%	3.93	4.07	+1.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	113	477	110	25	18	100%	5.9	23.1%	5.3%	17.8%	3.9%	4.16	4.32	+0.8
2033	33	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	104	439	97	25	18	100%	6.1	22.2%	5.7%	16.5%	4.1%	4.42	4.60	+0.4
2034	34	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	90	380	81	24	17	100%	6.0	21.3%	6.2%	15.1%	4.4%	4.71	4.90	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		203	203	1225	5116	1250	236	173	100%	6.0	24.4%	4.6%	19.8%	3.4%	3.73	3.48	+21.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	835	204	39	28	100%	6.0	24.4%	4.6%	19.8%	3.4%	3.73	3.48	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		62	62	344	1364	309	73	34	100%	5.6	22.6%	5.4%	17.3%	2.5%	2.90	3.25	+17.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	36	200	792	179	43	20	100%	5.6	22.6%	5.4%	17.3%	2.5%	2.90	3.25	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Schwellenbach (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.34	26.0%	3.8%	2.9%	—	3.49	25.7%	21.7%	454	+0.15	—	—	—
Stephen Strasburg R 2015 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	29.6%	5.0%	2.7%	.308	2.81	29.5%	22.9%	453	+0.11	2.42	811	69
Brandon Woodruff R 2019 · 2.69 FIP	26	SP	2.69	29.0%	6.1%	2.3%	.315	2.79	30.3%	24.0%	406	+0.10	2.68	1,247	66
Logan Gilbert R 2023 · 3.72 FIP	26	SP	3.72	24.5%	4.5%	3.9%	.271	3.40	28.6%	23.2%	512	-0.32	3.04	1,142	65
Frankie Montas R 2019 · 2.82 FIP	26	SP	2.82	26.1%	5.6%	2.2%	.291	3.58	25.2%	17.9%	384	+0.76	2.82	1,009	64
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	64
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	62
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	61
Shohei Ohtani R 2021 · 3.14 FIP	27	SP	3.14	29.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.259	2.86	32.4%	24.1%	298	-0.28	1.76	613	61
Yu Darvish R 2016 · 2.89 FIP	29	SP	2.89	30.6%	7.6%	2.6%	.284	3.85	29.1%	21.2%	405	+0.96	1.97	1,253	61
Jacob deGrom R 2015 · 2.57 FIP	27	SP	2.57	27.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.269	2.68	28.8%	23.0%	566	+0.11	0.74	1,538	61
Christian Scott R 2023 · 2.56 FIP	24	SP	2.56	25.6%	4.1%	2.0%	.265	4.02	25.6%	17.6%	203	+1.46	2.56	347	61
Masahiro Tanaka R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SP	3.84	22.8%	4.4%	3.9%	.242	3.67	23.6%	18.5%	534	-0.17	3.34	918	60
Trevor Bauer R 2017 · 3.74 FIP	26	SP	3.74	26.2%	8.0%	3.4%	.333	2.96	30.2%	22.2%	461	-0.78	2.16	1,111	60
Michael Pineda R 2015 · 3.14 FIP	26	SP	3.14	23.4%	3.1%	2.9%	.330	3.80	25.6%	19.4%	272	+0.66	2.00	786	60
Jon Gray R 2018 · 3.66 FIP	26	SP	3.66	24.6%	6.9%	3.2%	.317	3.76	22.6%	14.4%	338	+0.10	2.93	1,345	60
Matt Harvey R 2015 · 2.90 FIP	26	SP	2.90	24.9%	4.6%	2.4%	.268	4.38	18.4%	11.6%	340	+1.48	2.90	806	59
George Kirby R 2023 · 3.12 FIP	25	SP	3.12	22.7%	2.4%	3.0%	.288	3.38	22.7%	18.2%	482	+0.26	2.18	895	59
Danny Salazar R 2016 · 3.58 FIP	26	SP	3.58	27.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.303	3.34	33.0%	23.0%	103	-0.24	3.34	425	59
Dustin Crenshaw R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	27	SP	3.24	16.4%	2.7%	2.2%	.280	3.67	13.9%	11.4%	168	+0.43	3.24	238	58
Kyle Bradish R 2023 · 2.97 FIP	26	SP	2.97	25.0%	6.6%	2.1%	.265	3.61	25.0%	15.3%	243	+0.64	2.20	750	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	128	24.4%	4.6%	1.33	3.81
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Hyun Jin Ryu ('23)	3.5	101	22.0%	5.4%	1.17	3.27
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98