Spencer Schwellenbach

Spencer Schwellenbach P Atlanta Braves

+0.8 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.4 · 2027

ERA3.48

FIP3.65

xFIP3.01

SIERA3.30

K%24.7%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%19.7%

IP115

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.4peak

2027

K†6060

FB Velo

p8797.1

Whiff%

p6928.3%

p6524.9%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

FB+9.7 (45%)

CT+3.7 (12%)

SI (10%)

CU (11%)

SL-2.8 (18%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	23	A+	Rome Braves	16	16	65	255	55	16	3	14.5%	8.5%	1.9%	2.49	3.99	+0.7
2024	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	29	29	169	675	178	32	15	24.3%	5.1%	2.7%	2.93	3.15	+4.1
2025	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	17	17	111	434	108	17	13	24.9%	3.9%	3.0%	3.09	3.14	+2.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	ATL	34	—	34	146	38	7	4	26.3%	4.9%	2.9%	3.42	3.50	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	ATL	21	21	118	499	131	25	15	26.3%	5.0%	3.0%	3.47	3.51	+2.4
2028	28	MLB	ATL	22	22	118	499	131	25	15	26.3%	5.0%	3.0%	3.51	3.54	+2.4
2029	29	MLB	ATL	21	21	116	488	126	25	15	25.8%	5.1%	3.0%	3.57	3.61	+2.2
2030	30	MLB	ATL	20	20	112	473	119	25	15	25.2%	5.2%	3.1%	3.65	3.70	+2.0
2031	31	MLB	ATL	20	20	108	457	113	24	14	24.6%	5.3%	3.2%	3.74	3.81	+1.8
2032	32	MLB	ATL	19	19	104	439	105	24	14	24.0%	5.5%	3.2%	3.85	3.92	+1.6
2033	33	MLB	ATL	18	18	99	419	98	24	14	23.4%	5.6%	3.3%	3.97	4.05	+1.4
2034	34	MLB	ATL	17	17	94	398	90	23	14	22.7%	5.8%	3.4%	4.10	4.19	+1.1
2035	35	MLB	ATL	16	16	89	375	82	23	13	21.9%	6.0%	3.5%	4.24	4.34	+0.9
2036	36	MLB	ATL	15	15	83	350	74	22	13	21.1%	6.3%	3.7%	4.40	4.50	+0.6
2037	37	MLB	ATL	14	14	77	325	73	19	12	22.3%	5.8%	3.8%	4.40	4.41	+0.6
2038	38	MLB	ATL	13	13	71	299	64	18	12	21.5%	6.1%	3.9%	4.52	4.59	+0.4
2039	39	MLB	ATL	12	12	65	275	57	18	11	20.6%	6.4%	4.1%	4.68	4.78	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			62	62	344	1364	309	73	36	22.6%	5.4%	2.6%	2.90	3.31	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	792	179	42	21	22.6%	5.4%	2.6%	2.90	3.31	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Schwellenbach (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.50	26.3%	4.9%	2.9%	—	3.55	26.1%	21.1%	352	+0.05	—	—	—
Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 2.35 FIP	26	SW	2.35	30.4%	4.2%	2.3%	.285	3.98	21.7%	15.1%	155	+1.63	2.35	297	68
Shawn Tolleson R 2027 · 3.07 FIP	27	SW	3.07	25.5%	4.0%	2.9%	.284	4.76	17.3%	12.5%	36	+1.69	3.07	109	67
Trevor Brigden R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	27.6%	4.2%	4.0%	.303	4.32	25.2%	13.6%	113	+0.82	3.50	196	64
Justin Slaten R 2026 · 2.46 FIP	26	SW	2.46	25.9%	4.0%	1.9%	.281	3.47	18.2%	12.4%	34	+1.01	2.46	274	64
Zach McAllister R 2027 · 2.83 FIP	27	SW	2.83	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.89	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.83	363	64
Garrett Whitlock R 2026 · 3.22 FIP	26	SW	3.22	26.4%	4.8%	3.1%	.270	2.98	26.7%	20.6%	177	-0.24	1.79	523	63
Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 2.30 FIP	26	SW	2.30	26.6%	4.5%	1.6%	.244	3.48	21.2%	12.9%	168	+1.18	2.30	511	62
Pedro Báez R 2027 · 2.29 FIP	27	SW	2.29	28.8%	4.8%	1.9%	.321	3.69	25.8%	17.2%	194	+1.40	2.29	332	62
Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 2.98 FIP	26	SW	2.98	24.0%	6.0%	2.1%	.286	4.28	21.0%	11.4%	114	+1.30	2.98	234	62
Drew Storen R 2027 · 2.26 FIP	27	SW	2.26	29.4%	6.1%	1.6%	.287	3.79	20.3%	13.9%	106	+1.53	2.26	172	60
Héctor Rondón R 2027 · 2.33 FIP	27	SW	2.33	24.6%	4.6%	1.3%	.262	3.36	28.3%	21.6%	167	+1.03	2.33	318	60
Ryan Dull R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	26	SW	3.60	25.2%	3.8%	3.9%	.204	4.45	24.5%	16.7%	157	+0.85	3.11	345	59
Trevor Frank R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	26	SW	4.11	22.2%	4.5%	4.2%	.327	5.05	17.6%	11.5%	38	+0.94	2.39	154	59
Sam Dyson R 2027 · 2.67 FIP	27	SW	2.67	23.0%	6.5%	1.3%	.285	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	195	+1.21	2.67	333	59
Michael Mariot R 2026 · 2.39 FIP	26	SW	2.39	24.8%	6.2%	1.1%	.297	4.37	21.6%	11.8%	153	+1.98	2.39	676	59
Silvino Bracho R 2026 · 2.56 FIP	26	SW	2.56	29.0%	6.7%	1.9%	.355	4.60	25.5%	18.0%	50	+2.04	2.48	395	59
Jarod Bayless R 2026 · 2.25 FIP	26	SU	2.25	25.0%	3.0%	1.6%	.245	4.69	17.4%	11.2%	100	+2.44	1.29	217	59
Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	59
Mark Montgomery R 2026 · 2.69 FIP	26	SW	2.69	24.3%	5.6%	1.7%	.243	2.60	22.7%	11.6%	14	-0.09	2.60	169	59
Brendan McCurry R 2026 · 2.95 FIP	26	SW	2.95	23.4%	5.4%	2.1%	.324	4.66	24.9%	14.8%	55	+1.71	2.52	308	58

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.721 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$20M	+$19M
2028	Arb-1	$5M	+2.4	$20M	+$15M
2029	Arb-2	$9M	+2.2	$19M	+$10M
2030	Arb-3	$12M	+2.0	$18M	+$6M
Totals		$28M		$80M	+$52M