Spencer Schwellenbach

P Atlanta Braves

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.2 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	16	16	65	2.49	2.75	21.6%	6.3%	—	K 14.5% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.00
2024	24	MIX3 levels	29	29	169	2.93	2.71	26.4%	4.7%	5.8	K 24.3% · BB 5.1% · FIP 3.05
2025	25	MLBATL	17	17	111	3.09	3.14	24.9%	3.9%	3.1
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBATL	12	12	69	3.45	3.37	26.1%	3.9%	1.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBATL	17	17	104	3.46	3.46	25.9%	4.0%	2.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBATL	16	16	96	3.56	3.62	25.4%	4.2%	2.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.721First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$6M2029Arb-3$8M2030Arb-4$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo87

xwOBA vs68

K%65

CompsYoshinobu Yamamoto (age 25) · Aaron Civale (age 27) · Brandon Woodruff (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9688vR 80

ERA3.45

FIP3.37

K%26.1%

BB%3.9%

K-BB%22.2%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$38M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8797.1

Whiff%

p6928.3%

p6524.9%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.721 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+1.7	$14M	+$11M
2028	Arb-2	$6M	+2.5	$19M	+$14M
2029	Arb-3	$8M	+2.1	$14M	+$8M
2030	Arb-4	$10M	+1.7	$11M	+$4M
Totals		$26M		$57M	+$36M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	65	255	55	16	3	100%	4.1	14.5%	8.5%	6.0%	1.9%	2.49	4.00	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	65	255	55	16	3	100%	4.1	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	1.2%	2.49	2.75	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	169	675	178	32	15	100%	5.8	24.3%	5.1%	19.1%	2.5%	2.93	3.05	+5.0
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	169	675	178	32	15	100%	5.8	24.3%	5.1%	19.1%	2.5%	2.93	3.05	+5.0
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	169	675	178	32	15	100%	5.8	26.4%	4.7%	21.6%	2.2%	2.93	2.71	+5.8
2025	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	17	17	111	434	108	17	13	100%	6.5	24.9%	3.9%	21.0%	3.0%	3.09	3.14	+3.1
2025	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	17	17	111	434	108	17	13	100%	6.5	24.9%	3.9%	21.0%	3.0%	3.09	3.14	+3.1
2025	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	17	17	111	434	108	17	13	100%	6.5	24.9%	3.9%	21.0%	3.0%	3.09	3.14	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			38	38	234	934	235	39	27	100%	6.2	25.2%	4.2%	21.0%	2.9%	3.23	3.09	+6.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ATL	12	12	69	291	76	11	9	100%	5.8	26.1%	3.9%	22.2%	2.9%	3.45	3.37	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	109	460	119	18	14	100%	6.1	25.9%	4.0%	21.9%	3.0%	3.46	3.46	+2.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	101	428	109	18	14	100%	6.0	25.4%	4.2%	21.1%	3.2%	3.56	3.62	+2.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	93	393	97	18	13	100%	5.8	24.6%	4.5%	20.1%	3.4%	3.72	3.83	+1.8
2031	31	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	83	351	84	17	13	100%	5.9	23.9%	4.9%	19.0%	3.6%	3.92	4.06	+1.3
2032	32	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	71	299	69	16	12	100%	5.9	23.1%	5.3%	17.8%	3.9%	4.16	4.31	+0.9
2033	33	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	56	236	53	14	10	100%	6.2	22.2%	5.7%	16.5%	4.1%	4.42	4.59	+0.5
2034	34	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	53	224	52	12	10	100%	5.9	23.4%	5.4%	17.9%	4.4%	4.54	4.63	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	104	439	114	18	13	100%	6.1	25.9%	4.0%	21.9%	3.0%	3.46	3.46	+2.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	96	405	103	17	13	100%	6.0	25.4%	4.2%	21.1%	3.2%	3.56	3.62	+2.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	88	372	92	17	13	100%	5.9	24.6%	4.5%	20.1%	3.4%	3.72	3.83	+1.7
2031	31	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	79	334	80	16	12	100%	6.1	23.9%	4.9%	19.0%	3.6%	3.92	4.06	+1.3
2032	32	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	67	283	65	15	11	100%	6.1	23.1%	5.3%	17.8%	3.9%	4.16	4.31	+0.9
2033	33	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	53	224	50	13	9	100%	5.9	22.2%	5.7%	16.5%	4.1%	4.42	4.59	+0.5
2034	34	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	48	203	47	11	9	100%	6.0	23.4%	5.4%	17.9%	4.4%	4.54	4.63	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	127	770	3196	786	146	107	100%	6.1	24.6%	4.6%	20.0%	3.3%	3.67	3.44	+18.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	830	204	38	28	100%	6.0	24.6%	4.6%	20.0%	3.3%	3.67	3.44	+4.8
Career	—	MLE		62	62	344	1364	309	73	34	100%	5.6	22.6%	5.4%	17.3%	2.5%	2.90	3.25	+16.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	36	200	792	179	43	20	100%	5.6	22.6%	5.4%	17.3%	2.5%	2.90	3.25	+4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 A+Rome Emperors · 32 IPFIP 2.20 → 3.04 (+0.85)K% 26.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.95%	—	×0.770	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.87%	—	×1.150	7.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷0.831	×1.250	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 66).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMississippi Braves · 13 IPFIP 0.13 → 0.77 (+0.65)K% 38.6% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.64%	—	×0.810	31.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.27%	—	×1.100	2.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.906	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 0.13 → 0.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 51 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.00 (+0.86)K% 19.6% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.62%	—	×0.740	14.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.18%	—	×1.180	8.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷0.976	×1.300	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 14 IPFIP 0.81 → 1.44 (+0.63)K% 30.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.770	23.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.17%	—	×1.150	2.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.022	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.81 → 1.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Schwellenbach (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.37	26.1%	3.9%	2.9%	—	3.63	25.3%	21.1%	304	+0.26	—	—	—
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	67
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,207	62
Brandon Woodruff R 2020 · 2.86 FIP	27	SP	2.86	31.1%	6.1%	2.9%	.263	2.85	30.0%	23.7%	400	-0.01	2.68	1,247	61
Dustin Crenshaw R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	27	SP	3.24	16.4%	2.7%	2.2%	.280	3.67	13.9%	11.4%	168	+0.43	3.24	238	60
Scott Richmond R 2008 · 2.80 FIP	28	SP	2.80	17.7%	1.8%	1.8%	.337	5.11	19.2%	9.7%	139	+2.31	2.80	166	59
Brandon Beachy R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	26	SP	4.38	19.2%	3.3%	4.5%	.250	4.58	16.1%	4.9%	47	+0.20	1.97	364	59
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	1,014	58
Ashton Goudeau R 2019 · 2.33 FIP	27	SP	2.33	24.4%	4.4%	1.3%	.287	5.18	13.7%	5.0%	158	+2.85	2.33	671	57
Griffin Canning R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP	3.95	25.9%	6.5%	4.0%	.291	4.64	19.8%	9.8%	352	+0.69	3.60	809	57
Shohei Ohtani R 2021 · 3.14 FIP	27	SP	3.14	29.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.259	2.86	32.4%	24.1%	298	-0.28	1.76	613	57
Drew Rasmussen R 2022 · 3.22 FIP	27	SP	3.22	21.4%	5.3%	2.3%	.260	3.09	23.8%	17.7%	223	-0.13	1.21	694	56
Dinelson Lamet R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	27	SP	3.74	32.7%	9.2%	4.1%	.286	2.90	31.4%	21.8%	148	-0.84	2.11	778	56
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	56
Ryne Nelson R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	26	SP	3.62	20.0%	5.1%	2.9%	.303	4.25	20.0%	13.5%	241	+0.63	3.62	828	56
Joe Ryan R 2023 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	29.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.301	3.40	27.2%	22.1%	451	-0.47	2.41	976	55
Austin Voth R 2019 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	23.5%	6.1%	2.9%	.305	4.56	21.1%	13.5%	209	+1.06	3.41	1,057	55
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	55
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	55
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	55
Wilmer Font R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	27	SP	2.76	28.3%	6.6%	2.2%	.312	4.90	23.3%	15.3%	145	+2.14	2.76	345	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	88	24.7%	4.6%	1.29	3.66
Keith Foulke ('08)	3.9	72	22.4%	6.1%	1.08	3.33
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Craig Lefferts ('83-'94, 10 WAR*)	5.7	95	19.5%*	6.7%*	1.40*	3.93*
Rick Aguilera ('85-'00, 22 WAR*)	6.5	81	24.3%*	6.1%*	1.18*	3.65*