Brandon Woodruff
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+0.5
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 241 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA3.28
FIP3.63
xFIP4.24
SIERA3.98
K%27.4%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%20.6%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†6565
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p3222.8%
K%
p4421.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.269
CT+1.9 (12%)
SL (1%)
SI (19%)
CU (5%)
CH (21%)
FB (61%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | 21 | 19 | 110 | 457 | 71 | 33 | 2 | 12.0% | 8.3% | 0.6% | 3.45 | 3.48 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 28 | 28 | 158 | 633 | 173 | 40 | 6 | 21.8% | 7.0% | 1.0% | 2.68 | 2.70 | +4.7 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 25 | 25 | 120 | 518 | 103 | 38 | 13 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.03 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 36 | 21 | 114 | 486 | 115 | 46 | 12 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.81 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 22 | 22 | 122 | 493 | 143 | 30 | 12 | 29.0% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 3.62 | 2.74 | +3.5 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 13 | 13 | 74 | 293 | 91 | 18 | 9 | 31.1% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.05 | 2.90 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 30 | 179 | 708 | 211 | 43 | 18 | 29.8% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 2.56 | 2.73 | +5.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 29 | 161 | 649 | 204 | 44 | 19 | 30.6% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 3.02 | 2.80 | +4.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 14 | 14 | 79 | 297 | 85 | 17 | 9 | 29.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.40 | 3.27 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 22 | 22 | 107 | 427 | 118 | 26 | 11 | 26.3% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 3.04 | 3.01 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 23.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.32 | 3.90 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | MIL | 13 | — | 13 | 53 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 27.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 2.90 | 3.31 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 29 | 122 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 24.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.71 | 3.64 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 62 | 15 | 8 | 26.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.61 | 3.82 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 57 | 15 | 7 | 25.5% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 3.83 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 51 | 14 | 7 | 24.8% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | MIL | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 46 | 14 | 7 | 24.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 4.20 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | MIL | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 41 | 13 | 7 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 243 | 226 | 1239 | 5030 | 1254 | 350 | 114 | 24.9% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 3.21 | 3.12 | +30.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 36 | 200 | 812 | 202 | 56 | 18 | 24.9% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 3.21 | 3.12 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Woodruff (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.56 | 28.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% | — | 3.97 | 25.6% | 19.0% | 157 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 77 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 77 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 75 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.16 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.50 | 2.02 | 102 | 74 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.12 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .358 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 6.9% | 250 | +1.03 | 3.12 | 352 | 74 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Daniel Bard R 2028 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 73 |
| Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 72 |
| Mark Melancon R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.15 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.2% | .357 | 2.80 | 21.9% | 15.5% | 155 | -0.35 | 2.22 | 428 | 72 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 72 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2024 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 72 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 72 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.57 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 283 | 72 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 72 |
| Ryan Madson R 2027 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 71 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 71 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 71 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 71 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2017
Service 7.936 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
NTCOPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $22M | +0.5 | $2M | -$20M |
| Totals | $22M | $2M | -$20M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2027 | MUTUAL OPT | $2026.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2028 | MUTUAL OPT | $20.0M / $10.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2029 | MUTUAL OPT | $2026.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |