Brandon Woodruff P Milwaukee Brewers
Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 241 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.1 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8475vR 65
ERA3.05
FIP3.14
K%27.9%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%22.1%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
K: +4.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+5KBB: +4.2 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+4BBCONTACT: +1.4 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+1CONTACTSTAM: +8.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+9STAMTotal WAR: +1.99 (85 IP)+2.0WAR
0.50.40.20.0262829
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF5555
CTRL5555
CMD6060
K†6565
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p3823.6%
K%
p7627.0%
xwOBA vs
p900.263
CT+1.9 (10%)
SI (19%)
CU (4%)
CH (21%)
FB (63%)
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2017
Service   7.936 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2026
First FA Year   2027
NTCOPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$9M+0.8$3M-$6M
Totals $9M $3M -$6M
Options · projected decision
2027MUTUAL OPT$22.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2028MUTUAL OPT$20.0M / $10.0M buyoutDECLINE
2029MUTUAL OPT$22.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201522A+Brevard County Manatees21191104577133290%5.212.0%8.3%3.7%0.7%3.453.53
201522A+Brevard County Manatees21191104577133290%5.215.5%7.2%8.3%0.4%3.452.94
201623MIX2 levels2828158633173406100%5.621.8%7.0%14.8%0.8%2.682.61
201623MIX2 levels2828158633173406100%5.627.3%6.3%21.0%0.9%2.682.16
201724MIX3 levels25251205181033813100%4.818.4%7.5%10.9%3.0%4.494.16+1.8
201724MIX3 levels25251205181033813100%4.819.9%7.3%12.5%2.5%4.493.74+2.3
201825MIX2 levels3621114486115461258%3.222.0%9.8%12.2%2.3%3.883.75+2.2
201825MIX2 levels3621114486115461258%3.223.7%9.5%14.2%2.5%3.883.66+2.3
201926MLBMilwaukee Brewers22221224931433012100%5.529.0%6.1%22.9%2.5%3.622.81+3.7
201926MLBMilwaukee Brewers22221224931433012100%5.529.0%6.1%22.9%2.4%3.622.77+3.7
202027MLBMilwaukee Brewers13137429391189100%5.731.1%6.1%24.9%3.2%3.053.01+1.6
202027MLBMilwaukee Brewers13137429391189100%5.731.1%6.1%24.9%3.1%3.052.95+1.6
202128MLBMilwaukee Brewers30301797082114318100%6.029.8%6.1%23.7%2.6%2.562.81+5.4
202128MLBMilwaukee Brewers30301797082114318100%6.029.8%6.1%23.7%2.5%2.562.77+5.5
202229MIX3 levels29291616492044419100%5.630.6%6.8%23.9%3.0%3.023.03+4.5
202229MIX3 levels29291616492044419100%5.631.4%6.8%24.7%2.9%3.022.92+4.7
202330MIX3 levels14147929785179100%5.629.2%5.9%23.3%3.7%2.403.41+1.4
202330MIX3 levels14147929785179100%5.628.6%5.7%22.9%3.0%2.403.07+1.7
202532MIX3 levels22221074271182611100%4.826.3%6.3%20.0%2.6%3.043.11+2.9
202532MIX3 levels22221074271182611100%4.827.6%6.1%21.5%2.6%3.042.96+3.0
▸ 2026 Season
202633MLBMilwaukee Brewers11115421258126100%4.927.0%5.2%21.8%2.9%3.483.05+1.0
ROS33MLBMIL55301283674100%6.027.9%5.8%22.1%3.0%3.053.14+0.5
ROS33MLBMIL55301273574100%6.027.9%5.8%22.1%3.0%3.013.10+0.5
2026 TOT33MLBMIL8534094191027.6%5.7%21.8%2.9%3.323.08+2.0
2026 FULL33MLBMIL7631994191029.3%6.1%23.2%3.1%3.713.07+1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202734MLBMIL995523263158100%6.127.2%6.4%20.9%3.3%3.653.81+0.5
202835MLBMIL884920955148100%6.226.3%6.9%19.4%3.7%3.954.14+0.2
202936MLBMIL774418547147100%6.225.2%7.5%17.7%4.0%4.294.51+0.0
202734MLBMIL995523263158100%6.127.2%6.4%20.9%3.2%3.613.77+0.5
202835MLBMIL884920754147100%6.126.3%6.9%19.4%3.6%3.914.10+0.3
202936MLBMIL774418647147100%6.325.2%7.5%17.7%3.9%4.254.47+0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career1821679693911111824811592%5.328.6%6.4%22.2%2.9%3.223.11+26.0
/ 200 IP3834200807231512492%5.328.6%6.4%22.2%2.9%3.223.11+5.4
Career25123412775173129535912493%5.125.0%6.9%18.1%2.4%3.213.18+33.1
/ 200 IP3937200810203561993%5.125.0%6.9%18.1%2.4%3.213.18+5.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Brandon Woodruff (OGILVIE) 3.52 28.8%6.2%3.1% 4.13 26.3%19.4%148 +0.61
Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.42 FIP 33 SP 3.42 29.3%9.6%2.9%.288 4.25 20.8%13.5%296 +0.83 2.67 1,455 68
Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.66 FIP 33 SP 3.66 27.2%8.4%3.3%.308 4.62 21.7%13.8%255 +0.96 3.66 348 68
Alex Cobb R 2026 · 2.78 FIP 33 SP 2.78 24.9%8.4%1.3%.311 3.33 21.8%15.6%317 +0.55 2.78 844 63
Lance Lynn R 2026 · 3.86 FIP 33 SP 3.86 25.9%7.3%3.7%.235 4.08 25.1%18.6%462 +0.22 2.87 1,390 61
Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.78 FIP 33 SP 3.78 24.9%6.8%3.5%.307 4.32 23.6%17.0%230 +0.54 2.86 1,092 59
Jose Oyervides R 2026 · 2.98 FIP 33 SP 2.98 19.1%6.2%1.3%.333 4.17 21.9%14.5%184 +1.19 2.98 407 58
Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.49 FIP 33 SP 3.49 18.7%4.2%2.6%.285 4.58 17.3%9.6%253 +1.09 3.49 393 57
Josh Lowey R 2025 · 2.38 FIP 32 SP 2.38 24.7%6.9%0.9%.330 3.43 22.4%15.6%53 +1.05 2.28 426 56
Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.58 FIP 33 SP 4.58 20.3%7.3%4.1%.296 4.03 26.7%20.7%134 -0.55 2.87 864 56
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2027 · 3.79 FIP 34 SP 3.79 21.5%3.9%3.7%.270 4.50 16.9%11.2%230 +0.71 3.79 360 54
Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 3.50 FIP 33 SP 3.50 19.0%6.4%2.2%.254 5.36 15.4%9.5%59 +1.86 2.49 433 53
Corey Kluber R 2026 · 3.63 FIP 33 SP 3.63 22.6%8.9%2.4%.360 3.48 21.4%16.2%244 -0.15 2.27 1,190 53
Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.44 FIP 32 SP 3.44 16.0%6.4%1.6%.273 6.28 10.4%2.9%91 +2.84 3.44 155 52
Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.05 FIP 33 SP 3.05 26.4%7.9%2.1%.284 2.86 29.2%21.3%400 -0.19 2.55 1,534 52
Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP 33 SP 4.08 17.1%7.4%2.7%.291 3.55 515 51
Jorge Martinez R 2025 · 3.95 FIP 32 SP 3.95 17.1%2.6%3.6%.355 3.47 16.3%10.6%117 -0.48 3.42 214 51
Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP 31 SP 4.29 16.3%7.9%2.8%.335 4.29 125 51
Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.25 FIP 33 SP 4.25 20.8%7.7%3.5%.262 4.26 17.1%11.3%307 +0.01 3.43 645 50
Jake Peavy R 2027 · 4.09 FIP 34 SP 4.09 17.3%5.7%3.2%.278 4.36 19.6%12.9%119 +0.27 4.09 262 48
Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP 33 SP 3.79 14.5%6.9%1.9%.270 4.53 14.9%7.5%176 +0.74 3.79 264 47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION44726.8%6.7%1.363.83
Blake Parker ('21)46026.6%7.3%1.403.36
Erik Swanson ('24)55126.2%6.5%1.573.70
Chris Devenski ('24)66226.0%6.9%1.253.61
Eli Morgan ('24)46623.8%6.4%1.463.97
Zach McAllister ('18)45724.8%7.9%1.143.63
Sean Doolittle ('21)54928.7%6.2%1.183.31