Ashton Goudeau — OGILVIE

Ashton Goudeau P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 34 RHP 6'6" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.90

FIP4.97

K%19.6%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p1417.0%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	5	87	355	82	12	8	16%	2.8	17.6%	3.9%	13.7%	3.7%	3.22	4.12	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	5	87	355	82	12	8	16%	2.8	23.1%	3.4%	19.7%	2.3%	3.22	2.82	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	128	558	103	32	15	81%	4.7	14.7%	6.4%	8.3%	3.4%	5.29	4.51	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	128	558	103	32	15	81%	4.7	18.5%	5.7%	12.7%	2.7%	5.29	3.77	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	8	60	272	46	17	7	35%	2.6	13.3%	6.7%	6.6%	2.9%	5.10	4.41	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	8	60	272	46	17	7	35%	2.6	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	2.6%	5.10	3.93	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	14	103	456	78	38	13	44%	3.2	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	3.6%	5.79	5.01	—
2018	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	14	103	456	78	38	13	44%	3.2	17.1%	8.3%	8.8%	2.9%	5.79	4.34	—
2019	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	16	16	78	302	91	12	4	100%	4.9	24.4%	4.4%	20.0%	1.3%	2.07	2.33	—
2019	27	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	16	16	78	302	91	12	4	100%	4.9	30.1%	4.0%	26.2%	1.3%	2.07	1.90	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	4	0	8	39	2	2	3	0%	2.1	5.1%	5.1%	0.0%	7.7%	7.56	7.54	-0.3
2020	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	4	0	8	39	2	2	3	0%	2.1	5.1%	5.1%	0.0%	7.7%	7.56	8.02	-0.3
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	7	73	315	47	28	11	26%	2.7	14.0%	9.1%	4.9%	3.2%	4.66	4.84	-0.2
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	7	73	315	47	28	11	26%	2.7	14.9%	8.9%	6.0%	3.5%	4.66	4.91	-0.3
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	15	85	407	60	33	18	47%	2.6	13.4%	8.4%	5.1%	4.5%	8.93	5.48	-0.9
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	15	85	407	60	33	18	47%	2.6	14.7%	8.1%	6.6%	4.4%	8.93	5.62	-1.0
2023	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	18	14	61	291	49	31	14	78%	3.4	14.0%	9.6%	4.4%	5.9%	7.42	6.36	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	18	14	61	291	49	31	14	78%	3.4	14.0%	9.6%	4.4%	5.9%	7.42	6.36	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	18	14	61	291	49	31	14	78%	3.4	16.8%	10.7%	6.2%	4.8%	7.42	6.02	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	1	63	274	40	26	10	3%	2.0	14.6%	9.5%	5.1%	3.6%	5.57	5.13	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	DET	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.1%	8.5%	3.2%	4.90	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	DET	53	0	56	235	45	27	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.5%	7.6%	3.5%	5.07	5.24	-0.4
2028	36	MLB MLE	DET	47	0	49	208	38	25	8	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.9%	6.4%	3.8%	5.32	5.54	-0.5
2029	37	MLB MLE	DET	41	0	43	181	32	22	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	4.2%	5.63	5.87	-0.6
2027	35	MLB CTX	DET	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.5%	7.6%	3.5%	5.07	5.24	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	11.9%	6.4%	3.8%	5.32	5.54	—
2029	37	MLB CTX	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	4.2%	5.63	5.87	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	1	66	287	42	27	10	3%	1.9	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	3.6%	5.55	5.06	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		106	3	200	869	127	82	30	3%	1.9	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	3.6%	5.55	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		210	101	682	2995	461	215	108	48%	3.2	15.4%	7.2%	8.2%	3.6%	5.32	4.70	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	30	200	878	135	63	32	48%	3.2	15.4%	7.2%	8.2%	3.6%	5.32	4.70	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ashton Goudeau (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	19.6%	11.1%	3.2%	—	5.52	18.3%	6.5%	148	+0.55	—	—	—
Tim Adleman R 2022 · 5.69 FIP	34	SP-	5.69	17.5%	8.6%	5.4%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	605	71
Alexi Ogando R 2018 · 4.10 FIP	34	SW	4.10	15.0%	6.4%	2.6%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	132	70
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	69
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	66
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	66
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	65
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	65
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	64
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.77	264	63
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	63
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	212	62
Oscar Villarreal R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	34	SW	3.90	14.4%	7.8%	1.9%	.325	5.36	8.7%	0.1%	13	+1.46	2.53	135	62
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	62
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	61
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	59
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.83	16.3%	10.6%	260	+0.51	3.42	933	58
Mike Pelfrey R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	33	SP-	5.69	14.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	404	58
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	58
Jerome Williams R 2016 · 5.81 FIP	34	SW	5.81	11.7%	6.1%	5.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	195	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	18.7%	11.6%	1.40	5.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50