Ashton Goudeau
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 34
RHP
6'6" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA4.96
FIP5.02
K%19.7%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p4224.1%
K%
p1417.0%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 5 | 87 | 355 | 82 | 12 | 8 | 16% | 2.8 | 17.6% | 3.9% | 13.7% | 5.2% | 3.22 | 4.98 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 5 | 87 | 355 | 82 | 12 | 8 | 16% | 2.8 | 23.1% | 3.4% | 19.7% | 2.3% | 3.22 | 2.82 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 22 | 128 | 558 | 103 | 32 | 15 | 81% | 4.7 | 14.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.29 | 4.58 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 22 | 128 | 558 | 103 | 32 | 15 | 81% | 4.7 | 18.5% | 5.7% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 5.29 | 3.77 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 8 | 60 | 272 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 35% | 2.6 | 13.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 5.10 | 4.27 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 8 | 60 | 272 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 35% | 2.6 | 16.9% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 5.10 | 3.93 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 14 | 103 | 456 | 78 | 38 | 13 | 44% | 3.2 | 14.2% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.79 | 5.20 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 14 | 103 | 456 | 78 | 38 | 13 | 44% | 3.2 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 5.79 | 4.34 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 16 | 16 | 78 | 302 | 91 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.4% | 4.4% | 20.0% | 1.2% | 2.07 | 2.23 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 16 | 16 | 78 | 302 | 91 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 30.1% | 4.0% | 26.2% | 1.3% | 2.07 | 1.90 | — |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 4 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 2.1 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.56 | 7.54 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 4 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 2.1 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.56 | 8.02 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 7 | 73 | 315 | 47 | 28 | 11 | 26% | 2.7 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 7 | 73 | 315 | 47 | 28 | 11 | 26% | 2.7 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 15 | 85 | 407 | 60 | 33 | 18 | 47% | 2.6 | 13.4% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 8.93 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 15 | 85 | 407 | 60 | 33 | 18 | 47% | 2.6 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 8.93 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 18 | 14 | 61 | 291 | 49 | 31 | 14 | 78% | 3.4 | 14.8% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 7.42 | 6.89 | — |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 18 | 14 | 61 | 291 | 49 | 31 | 14 | 78% | 3.4 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.42 | 6.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | DET | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 52 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | DET | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 45 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | DET | 47 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 38 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.37 | 5.58 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | DET | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 32 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 12.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.68 | 5.92 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | DET | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.29 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.4% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.37 | 5.58 | — |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.6% | 12.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.68 | 5.92 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 1 | 66 | 287 | 42 | 28 | 10 | 3% | 1.9 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.55 | 5.07 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 3 | 200 | 869 | 127 | 85 | 30 | 3% | 1.9 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.55 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 210 | 101 | 682 | 2995 | 463 | 220 | 115 | 48% | 3.2 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 5.32 | 4.82 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 30 | 200 | 878 | 136 | 64 | 34 | 48% | 3.2 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 5.32 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ashton Goudeau (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 3.2% | — | 5.57 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 148 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.60 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 605 | 72 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 71 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 71 |
| Sam LeCure R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 68 |
| Jason Berken R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 67 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 66 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 65 |
| Chris Young R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 65 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 64 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.19 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.84 | 3.79 | 264 | 63 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 63 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 61 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.85 | 14.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .325 | 5.28 | 8.7% | 0.1% | 13 | +1.43 | 2.54 | 135 | 61 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.22 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 269 | 59 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.94 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 195 | 58 |
| Zach Neal R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.99 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 732 | 58 |
| Thad Weber R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.86 | 13.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 363 | 58 |
| Paolo Espino R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.32 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.85 | 16.8% | 10.5% | 260 | +0.53 | 3.45 | 933 | 58 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.05 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.16 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 393 | 57 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.97 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 3.5% | .319 | 5.22 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 133 | +1.25 | 3.66 | 348 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 1.41 | 5.25 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |