Ashton Goudeau
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.0
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'6" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
xFIP5.05
SIERA4.71
K%21.8%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.2%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD3030
K†4545
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p4224.1%
K%
p1417.0%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 31 | 5 | 87 | 355 | 82 | 12 | 8 | 17.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.22 | 3.97 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 27 | 22 | 128 | 558 | 103 | 32 | 15 | 14.7% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 5.29 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 23 | 8 | 60 | 272 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 13.3% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 32 | 14 | 103 | 456 | 78 | 38 | 13 | 14.2% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.79 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 16 | 16 | 78 | 302 | 91 | 12 | 4 | 24.4% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 2.07 | 2.31 | +2.5 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 4 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 3 | — | — | — | 7.56 | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 27 | 7 | 73 | 315 | 47 | 28 | 11 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.86 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 32 | 15 | 85 | 407 | 60 | 33 | 18 | 13.4% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 8.93 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 18 | 14 | 61 | 291 | 49 | 31 | 14 | 14.8% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 7.42 | 6.39 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | DET | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 44 | 26 | 7 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | DET | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 40 | 24 | 7 | 18.9% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | DET | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 37 | 23 | 7 | 18.5% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 5.11 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 210 | 101 | 682 | 2995 | 463 | 220 | 107 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 5.32 | 4.68 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 30 | 200 | 878 | 136 | 64 | 31 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 5.32 | 4.68 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ashton Goudeau (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 3.1% | — | 5.16 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 98 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 87 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 86 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 84 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 81 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 80 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 79 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.06 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .318 | 4.34 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.72 | 3.77 | 264 | 78 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 78 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.02 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 290 | 78 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 78 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.90 | 14.4% | 7.8% | 1.9% | .325 | 5.35 | 8.7% | 0.1% | 13 | +1.45 | 2.53 | 135 | 78 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 6.11 FIP | 34 | SU | 6.11 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 5.0% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 170 | 76 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 76 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 76 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.15 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .280 | 4.71 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 364 | +0.56 | 2.87 | 1,148 | 75 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 148 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.18 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.14 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 32 | +0.96 | 3.38 | 212 | 74 |
| Scott McGough R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.59 | 18.8% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .289 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 57 | -0.66 | 3.56 | 429 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.