Kelvis Salcedo — OGILVIE

Kelvis Salcedo P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%24.4%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$53M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL—45

CMD3045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$10M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$11M	+$11M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+2.1	$12M	+$7M
2032	Arb-2	$12M	+2.2	$11M	+$5M
2033	Arb-3	$17M	+2.1	$10M	+$2M
Totals		$39M		$62M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	14	2	25	117	32	12	0	14%	1.8	18.6%	12.8%	5.8%	0.0%	6.20	3.15	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	14	2	25	117	32	12	0	14%	1.8	18.6%	12.8%	5.8%	0.0%	6.20	3.15	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	14	2	25	117	32	12	0	14%	1.8	27.4%	10.3%	17.1%	0.0%	6.20	1.96	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	12	11	50	211	61	18	3	92%	4.2	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	2.0%	3.93	3.89	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	12	11	50	211	61	18	3	92%	4.2	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	2.0%	3.93	3.89	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	12	11	50	211	61	18	3	92%	4.2	28.9%	8.5%	20.4%	1.4%	3.93	2.52	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	69	254	85	25	3	56%	3.8	23.5%	12.1%	11.4%	1.8%	1.83	3.65	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	69	254	85	25	3	56%	3.8	23.5%	12.1%	11.4%	1.8%	1.83	3.65	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	69	254	85	25	3	56%	3.8	33.5%	9.8%	23.6%	1.2%	1.83	2.28	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	13	11	37	155	57	10	3	85%	2.8	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	2.6%	3.44	3.27	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	13	11	37	155	57	10	3	85%	2.8	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	2.6%	3.44	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	DET	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	100%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2026	20	A RAW	DET	12	10	36	152	54	10	3	83%	3.0	35.5%	6.6%	28.9%	2.0%	3.53	2.02	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	8	34	8	4	1	100%	8.1	24.4%	12.0%	12.4%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	45	189	65	14	4	—	—	34.5%	7.5%	27.1%	2.1%	3.63	3.50	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	26	26	127	537	132	58	15	100%	4.9	24.6%	10.9%	13.7%	2.8%	4.41	4.35	+0.8
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	33	33	170	716	181	71	20	100%	5.1	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	2.8%	4.24	4.14	+1.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	33	33	175	739	191	69	20	100%	5.3	25.9%	9.3%	16.5%	2.8%	4.09	4.00	+1.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	32	32	179	757	200	68	21	100%	5.6	26.4%	9.0%	17.3%	2.7%	3.98	3.90	+2.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	31	31	180	760	203	67	21	100%	5.8	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	2.7%	3.90	3.84	+2.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	30	30	180	760	205	67	21	100%	6.0	27.0%	8.8%	18.1%	2.7%	3.85	3.82	+2.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	30	30	177	749	202	67	21	100%	5.9	27.0%	8.9%	18.0%	2.8%	3.85	3.86	+2.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	DET	29	29	172	726	195	66	21	100%	5.9	26.8%	9.1%	17.8%	2.9%	3.90	3.94	+2.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	DET	27	27	164	694	184	64	21	100%	6.1	26.6%	9.3%	17.3%	3.0%	4.00	4.07	+1.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	DET	26	26	154	652	171	63	21	100%	5.9	26.2%	9.6%	16.7%	3.2%	4.15	4.25	+1.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	144	608	157	60	21	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.9%	15.9%	3.4%	4.33	4.45	+0.8
2038	32	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	133	562	143	58	21	100%	6.1	25.4%	10.3%	15.1%	3.7%	4.54	4.68	+0.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	122	516	128	56	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	4.0%	4.77	4.93	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	63	266	65	29	7	100%	4.8	24.6%	10.9%	13.7%	2.7%	4.34	4.28	+0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	124	524	132	52	14	100%	5.2	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	2.7%	4.17	4.07	+1.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	28	28	148	625	162	58	17	100%	5.3	25.9%	9.3%	16.5%	2.6%	4.03	3.94	+1.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	29	29	160	676	178	61	18	100%	5.5	26.4%	9.0%	17.3%	2.6%	3.92	3.84	+1.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	28	28	165	697	186	62	18	100%	5.9	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	2.6%	3.84	3.78	+2.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	28	28	168	709	191	63	19	100%	6.0	27.0%	8.8%	18.1%	2.6%	3.79	3.76	+2.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	28	28	168	709	191	63	19	100%	6.0	27.0%	8.9%	18.0%	2.7%	3.79	3.80	+2.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	DET	27	27	163	688	185	62	19	100%	6.0	26.8%	9.1%	17.8%	2.8%	3.83	3.87	+1.9
2035	29	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	156	659	175	61	19	100%	6.0	26.6%	9.3%	17.3%	2.9%	3.93	4.00	+1.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	147	621	163	60	19	100%	6.1	26.2%	9.6%	16.7%	3.1%	4.07	4.17	+1.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	DET	23	23	137	578	149	57	19	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.9%	15.9%	3.3%	4.25	4.37	+0.7
2038	32	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	127	536	136	55	19	100%	6.0	25.4%	10.3%	15.1%	3.5%	4.45	4.59	+0.3
2039	33	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	116	490	122	53	19	100%	6.1	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	3.8%	4.68	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		318	318	1841	7772	2035	736	225	100%	5.8	26.2%	9.5%	16.7%	2.9%	4.04	3.68	+27.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	221	80	24	100%	5.8	26.2%	9.5%	16.7%	2.9%	4.04	3.68	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		57	34	180	737	164	80	13	60%	3.2	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	1.7%	3.34	3.56	+18.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	38	200	817	182	89	14	60%	3.2	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	1.7%	3.34	3.56	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelvis Salcedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	24.4%	12.0%	2.9%	—	4.14	25.3%	15.3%	472	-0.39	—	—	—
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	85
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	84
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	81
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	81
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.30	18.5%	7.5%	314	+0.31	3.70	466	80
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	79
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	79
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	79
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	78
Andrew Taylor R 2023 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP-	5.02	25.0%	13.6%	4.2%	.391	5.04	18.2%	6.3%	111	+0.02	4.74	195	78
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	78
Spencer Arrighetti R 2022 · 3.97 FIP	22	SP-	3.97	24.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.357	4.10	24.3%	13.3%	305	+0.13	3.92	538	78
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	78
Carlos Rodriguez R 2022 · 3.60 FIP	20	SP-	3.60	22.6%	10.9%	1.9%	.266	4.16	21.1%	10.6%	353	+0.56	3.60	510	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	78
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	77
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	77
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.8	155	26.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.14
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12