Kelvis Salcedo
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 20
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%24.4%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 14 | 2 | 25 | 117 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 14% | 1.8 | 18.6% | 12.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 6.20 | 3.15 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 14 | 2 | 25 | 117 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 14% | 1.8 | 27.4% | 10.3% | 17.1% | 0.0% | 6.20 | 1.96 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 12 | 11 | 50 | 211 | 61 | 18 | 3 | 92% | 4.2 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 3.93 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 12 | 11 | 50 | 211 | 61 | 18 | 3 | 92% | 4.2 | 28.9% | 8.5% | 20.4% | 1.4% | 3.93 | 2.52 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 69 | 254 | 85 | 25 | 3 | 56% | 3.8 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 2.1% | 1.83 | 3.82 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 69 | 254 | 85 | 25 | 3 | 56% | 3.8 | 33.5% | 9.8% | 23.6% | 1.2% | 1.83 | 2.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 5 | 5 | 13 | 58 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 2.5 | 24.2% | 8.1% | 16.1% | 4.5% | 5.68 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 67 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.4% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | DET | — | — | 77 | 332 | 86 | 34 | 10 | — | — | 25.9% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 127 | 537 | 132 | 55 | 15 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.27 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | DET | 32 | 32 | 170 | 716 | 181 | 67 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.08 | +2.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | DET | 33 | 33 | 175 | 739 | 191 | 66 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.9% | 8.9% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.96 | +2.9 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | DET | 32 | 32 | 179 | 757 | 200 | 66 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.4% | 8.7% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.87 | +3.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | DET | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 203 | 65 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.8% | 8.5% | 18.2% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.81 | +3.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | DET | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 205 | 65 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 18.5% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.79 | +3.4 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | DET | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 202 | 64 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.0% | 8.6% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.83 | +3.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | DET | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 195 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 18.1% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 3.91 | +3.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | DET | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 184 | 62 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.6% | 9.0% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 3.98 | 4.04 | +2.6 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | DET | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 171 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 9.3% | 17.0% | 3.3% | 4.12 | 4.22 | +2.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 157 | 58 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 3.5% | 4.30 | 4.42 | +1.7 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 143 | 56 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.4% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 3.7% | 4.51 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 128 | 54 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 4.0% | 4.74 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 63 | 266 | 65 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 124 | 524 | 132 | 49 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.01 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 148 | 625 | 162 | 56 | 17 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.9% | 8.9% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.89 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | DET | 29 | 29 | 160 | 676 | 178 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 5.5 | 26.4% | 8.7% | 17.7% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 3.81 | +3.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 186 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.8% | 8.5% | 18.2% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.75 | +3.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 191 | 60 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 18.5% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.73 | +3.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 191 | 61 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.0% | 8.6% | 18.4% | 2.7% | 3.75 | 3.76 | +3.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | DET | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 185 | 60 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 18.1% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.84 | +3.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | DET | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 175 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.6% | 9.0% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.97 | +2.6 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 163 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.2% | 9.3% | 17.0% | 3.1% | 4.04 | 4.14 | +2.2 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | DET | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 149 | 56 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.34 | +1.7 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 136 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.4% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 4.56 | +1.2 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 122 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.81 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 317 | 317 | 1841 | 7772 | 2035 | 708 | 227 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.2% | 9.1% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 3.64 | +37.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 221 | 77 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.2% | 9.1% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 28 | 156 | 640 | 137 | 73 | 12 | 57% | 3.2 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 3.51 | 3.79 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 36 | 200 | 819 | 175 | 93 | 16 | 57% | 3.2 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 3.51 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kelvis Salcedo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.09 | 25.3% | 15.9% | 472 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Logan Hofmann R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.21 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .239 | 6.50 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.29 | 4.21 | 129 | 86 |
| Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.97 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .302 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.5% | 153 | -0.50 | 2.56 | 253 | 85 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.37 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .290 | 4.39 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +1.02 | 3.37 | 306 | 84 |
| Anderson Brito R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.39 | 27.5% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .231 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 7.4% | 82 | +0.44 | 3.24 | 135 | 82 |
| Javi Rivera R 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.71 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.72 | 229 | 82 |
| Ian Bedell R 2029 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.64 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .285 | 5.72 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 178 | +2.08 | 3.64 | 274 | 80 |
| Chris Campos R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 80 |
| Jake Lyons R 2028 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 80 |
| Michael Knorr R 2029 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 80 |
| Trey Gibson R 2028 · 3.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.24 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 1.1% | .310 | 4.01 | 23.5% | 12.6% | 191 | +0.77 | 3.24 | 283 | 79 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 79 |
| Connor Cooke R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 79 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2029 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 78 |
| Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 78 |
| Alejandro Rivera R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.30 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 116 | 78 |
| Zach Peek R 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 78 |
| Alessandro Ercolani R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.78 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .267 | 5.93 | 12.9% | 1.7% | 121 | +2.15 | 3.78 | 311 | 78 |
| Andrew Taylor R 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.04 | 25.0% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .391 | 4.67 | 17.7% | 4.6% | 72 | -0.37 | 4.50 | 156 | 78 |
| Lucas Elissalt R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 1.9% | .253 | 4.98 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 60 | +1.13 | 3.85 | 149 | 78 |
| Zach Messinger R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 1.7% | .317 | 4.30 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 314 | +0.34 | 3.68 | 444 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 155 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 1.17 | 4.10 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |