Dualvert Gutierrez

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	20	ROKCIN	13	9	52	3.29	1.85	34.5%	7.3%	—	K 23.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.22
2023	22	ROKCIN	12	5	30	5.46	3.54	24.3%	16.2%	—	K 16.5% · BB 20.3% · FIP 4.76
2024	23	MIX2 levels	17	11	53	3.88	3.25	21.7%	8.0%	—	K 15.6% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.00
2025	24	No MLB games played
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.48	4.48	21.7%	9.5%	—
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBCIN	2	2	10	4.48	4.50	21.9%	9.5%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsMitch Neunborn (age 26) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Carlos Torres (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%21.7%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP29

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	9	52	220	76	16	3	69%	4.0	23.5%	9.1%	14.4%	1.7%	3.29	3.22	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	9	52	220	76	16	3	69%	4.0	34.5%	7.3%	27.3%	1.4%	3.29	1.85	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	5	30	148	36	24	1	42%	2.5	16.5%	20.3%	-3.7%	0.9%	5.46	4.76	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	5	30	148	36	24	1	42%	2.5	24.3%	16.2%	8.1%	0.7%	5.46	3.54	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	53	226	49	18	4	65%	3.1	15.6%	9.8%	5.8%	1.8%	3.88	4.00	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	53	226	49	18	4	65%	3.1	15.6%	9.8%	5.8%	1.8%	3.88	4.00	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	53	226	49	18	4	65%	3.1	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	1.8%	3.88	3.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	9.5%	12.3%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	5	5	29	121	26	11	4	100%	5.7	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.50	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	10	42	9	4	1	100%	5.0	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.50	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	44	10	4	1	100%	5.2	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.12	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	77	19	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.12	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		42	25	135	594	111	72	9	60%	3.2	18.8%	12.2%	6.6%	1.5%	4.00	3.90	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	37	200	880	165	107	14	60%	3.2	18.8%	12.2%	6.6%	1.5%	4.00	3.90	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 49 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.00 (+0.82)K% 21.1% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.08%	—	×0.740	15.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.078	×1.300	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Reds · 5 IPFIP 3.87 → 5.54 (+1.67)K% 27.3% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.680	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.250	5.68%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.063	×1.400	5.99%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Reds · 30 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.76 (+1.29)K% 24.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.680	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.22%	—	×1.250	20.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.059	×1.400	0.89%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Reds · 52 IPFIP 1.85 → 3.22 (+1.36)K% 34.5% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.55%	—	×0.680	23.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.250	9.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷1.104	×1.400	1.73%

Result: FIP 1.85 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dualvert Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	21.7%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.50	21.9%	12.4%	29	+0.02	—	—	—
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	75
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.82	13.1%	3.7%	116	+0.21	2.84	310	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	73
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	72
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	72
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	72
Jimmy Endersby R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	17.3%	8.0%	3.4%	.257	2.86	17.2%	12.8%	36	-1.68	2.86	357	72
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	72
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	72
Jose Samayoa R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	26	SW	3.44	16.6%	9.9%	0.9%	.286	3.79	17.3%	9.4%	226	+0.35	3.44	262	72
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	71
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.65	18.4%	7.3%	248	-0.17	4.29	360	71
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	71
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	71
Cole Percival R 2024 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	17.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.296	3.58	20.5%	9.5%	36	-1.02	3.58	327	71
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	70
Daniel Federman R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	24	SP-	4.12	23.8%	8.3%	3.6%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	119	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.8%	9.5%	1.16	4.48
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*