Moisés Chace

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 213 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	ABAL	21	9	68	4.50	4.03	33.1%	17.5%	—	K 24.5% · BB 20.7% · FIP 5.51
2024	21	MIX2 levels	23	15	80	3.59	2.80	37.1%	12.0%	—	K 29.0% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.01
2025	22	AAPHI	6	6	17	3.24	5.32	25.3%	16.0%	—	K 20.5% · BB 17.6% · FIP 6.14
2026	23	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	24	MLBPHI	1	1	6	4.76	4.76	25.7%	14.0%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBPHI	4	4	26	4.63	4.57	25.9%	12.6%	0.3
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBPHI	6	6	36	4.56	4.52	25.9%	12.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Sean Mooney (age 24) · Angel Guzman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%25.7%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Black	9	5	22	106	32	11	1	56%	2.5	20.5%	13.0%	7.6%	1.4%	5.64	3.77	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles Black	9	5	22	106	32	11	1	56%	2.5	30.2%	10.4%	19.8%	0.9%	5.64	2.29	—
2022	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	19	14	60	271	64	42	1	74%	3.1	17.5%	18.3%	-0.8%	0.4%	4.98	4.17	—
2022	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	19	14	60	271	64	42	1	74%	3.1	23.6%	15.5%	8.1%	0.4%	4.98	3.28	—
2023	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	9	68	302	100	53	8	43%	3.2	24.5%	20.7%	3.8%	3.4%	4.50	5.51	—
2023	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	9	68	302	100	53	8	43%	3.2	33.1%	17.5%	15.6%	2.6%	4.50	4.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	80	334	124	40	8	65%	3.5	29.0%	13.7%	15.3%	3.0%	3.59	4.01	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	80	334	124	40	8	65%	3.5	29.0%	13.7%	15.3%	3.0%	3.59	4.01	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	80	334	124	40	8	65%	3.5	37.1%	12.0%	25.1%	2.4%	3.59	2.80	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	6	6	17	75	19	12	3	100%	2.8	20.5%	17.6%	2.9%	4.6%	3.24	6.14	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	6	6	17	75	19	12	3	100%	2.8	20.5%	17.6%	2.9%	4.6%	3.24	6.14	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	6	6	17	75	19	12	3	100%	2.8	25.3%	16.0%	9.3%	4.0%	3.24	5.32	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PHI	1	1	6	25	7	4	1	100%	6.0	25.7%	14.0%	11.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	54	226	58	28	7	100%	5.9	25.9%	12.6%	13.3%	3.1%	4.63	4.57	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	52	219	57	27	7	100%	5.8	25.9%	12.3%	13.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.52	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	50	212	54	26	7	100%	6.3	25.7%	12.2%	13.5%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	26	110	28	14	3	100%	6.5	25.9%	12.6%	13.3%	3.1%	4.63	4.57	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	36	152	39	19	5	100%	6.0	25.9%	12.3%	13.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.52	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	40	169	43	21	5	100%	5.7	25.7%	12.2%	13.5%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	101	428	111	53	13	100%	6.0	25.8%	12.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.57	4.17	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	219	105	26	100%	6.0	25.8%	12.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.57	4.17	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		78	49	247	1088	255	185	26	63%	3.2	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.4%	4.34	4.59	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	40	200	881	207	150	21	63%	3.2	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.4%	4.34	4.59	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 17 IPFIP 5.18 → 6.14 (+0.96)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.33%	—	×0.810	20.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×1.100	17.60%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.036	×1.200	4.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 5.18 → 6.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 61 IPFIP 2.87 → 4.16 (+1.29)K% 34.6% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.63%	—	×0.770	26.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.84%	—	×1.150	14.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷0.926	×1.250	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 20 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.51 (+0.96)K% 45.5% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.45%	—	×0.810	36.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.90%	÷1.137	×1.200	4.11%

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 68 IPFIP 3.98 → 5.51 (+1.53)K% 33.1% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.11%	—	×0.740	24.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.55%	—	×1.180	20.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.020	×1.300	3.37%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 60 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.17 (+0.90)K% 23.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.62%	—	×0.740	17.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.50%	—	×1.180	18.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.37%	÷1.128	×1.300	0.43%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Orioles Black · 22 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.77 (+1.39)K% 30.2% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.19%	—	×0.680	20.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.38%	—	×1.250	12.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷0.950	×1.400	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Moisés Chace (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.55	25.8%	13.5%	156	-0.21	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	88
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	85
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	82
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	82
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	81
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	80
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	77
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	77
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	77
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	77
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	76
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	76
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	76
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	75
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	75
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	274	-0.12	4.06	464	74
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	74
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	74
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	74
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	23.7%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.67	23.2%	9.7%	176	-0.94	3.25	464	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	53	25.8%	12.8%	1.19	4.63
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82