Moisés Chace — OGILVIE

Moisés Chace P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 213 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%27.0%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4555

CTRL4545

CMD3045

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Black	9	5	22	106	32	11	1	56%	2.5	20.5%	13.0%	7.6%	1.4%	5.64	3.77	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles Black	9	5	22	106	32	11	1	56%	2.5	30.2%	10.4%	19.8%	0.9%	5.64	2.29	—
2022	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	19	14	60	271	64	42	1	74%	3.1	17.5%	18.3%	-0.8%	0.4%	4.98	4.17	—
2022	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	19	14	60	271	64	42	1	74%	3.1	23.6%	15.5%	8.1%	0.4%	4.98	3.28	—
2023	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	9	68	302	100	53	8	43%	3.2	24.5%	20.7%	3.8%	3.4%	4.50	5.51	—
2023	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	9	68	302	100	53	8	43%	3.2	24.5%	20.7%	3.8%	3.4%	4.50	5.51	—
2023	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	9	68	302	100	53	8	43%	3.2	33.1%	17.5%	15.6%	2.6%	4.50	4.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	80	334	124	40	8	65%	3.5	29.0%	13.7%	15.3%	3.0%	3.59	4.01	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	80	334	124	40	8	65%	3.5	29.0%	13.7%	15.3%	3.0%	3.59	4.01	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	80	334	124	40	8	65%	3.5	37.1%	12.0%	25.1%	2.4%	3.59	2.80	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	6	6	17	75	19	12	3	100%	2.8	20.5%	17.6%	2.9%	4.6%	3.24	6.14	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	6	6	17	75	19	12	3	100%	2.8	20.5%	17.6%	2.9%	4.6%	3.24	6.14	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	6	6	17	75	19	12	3	100%	2.8	25.3%	16.0%	9.3%	4.0%	3.24	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	PHI	1	1	4	17	5	3	1	100%	4.0	27.0%	15.9%	11.1%	3.1%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	74	313	85	44	10	100%	5.7	27.2%	13.9%	13.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.64	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	75	317	86	40	10	100%	5.8	27.3%	12.7%	14.7%	3.1%	4.56	4.46	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	75	317	87	39	10	100%	6.2	27.3%	12.4%	14.9%	3.1%	4.48	4.43	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	74	312	85	39	10	100%	6.2	27.2%	12.4%	14.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.47	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	72	303	82	38	10	100%	6.0	27.1%	12.6%	14.5%	3.2%	4.52	4.55	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	68	289	78	37	10	100%	6.2	26.9%	12.8%	14.1%	3.4%	4.62	4.68	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	64	272	72	36	10	100%	5.9	26.5%	13.1%	13.4%	3.6%	4.76	4.86	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	36	152	41	21	5	100%	6.0	27.2%	13.9%	13.3%	3.3%	4.85	4.76	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	52	220	60	28	7	100%	5.8	27.3%	12.7%	14.7%	3.3%	4.68	4.58	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	61	258	70	32	8	100%	6.1	27.3%	12.4%	14.9%	3.3%	4.60	4.55	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	64	270	74	34	9	100%	5.8	27.2%	12.4%	14.8%	3.3%	4.59	4.59	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	64	270	73	34	9	100%	5.8	27.1%	12.6%	14.5%	3.5%	4.65	4.68	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	63	266	71	34	10	100%	6.3	26.9%	12.8%	14.1%	3.6%	4.75	4.81	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	60	253	67	33	10	100%	6.0	26.5%	13.1%	13.4%	3.8%	4.90	5.00	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	398	1682	455	215	58	100%	5.9	27.1%	12.8%	14.3%	3.5%	4.71	4.33	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	228	108	29	100%	5.9	27.1%	12.8%	14.3%	3.5%	4.71	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		78	49	247	1088	255	185	26	63%	3.2	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.4%	4.34	4.59	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	40	200	881	207	150	21	63%	3.2	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.4%	4.34	4.59	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Moisés Chace (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	27.0%	15.9%	3.1%	—	4.51	27.3%	14.3%	224	-0.42	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	79
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	78
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	77
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	76
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	75
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	75
Ryan Cardona R 2023 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP-	3.85	22.8%	16.5%	1.1%	.262	4.44	16.8%	3.5%	211	+0.59	3.62	367	75
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	75
Andrew Taylor R 2023 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP-	5.02	25.0%	13.6%	4.2%	.391	5.04	18.2%	6.3%	111	+0.02	4.74	195	74
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	74
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	74
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	448	73
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	73
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	73
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	72
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	72
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	72
Emiliano Teodo R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP-	5.56	24.1%	14.2%	4.9%	.305	3.90	24.0%	8.4%	161	-1.66	3.17	337	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	27.1%	13.1%	1.24	4.62
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81