Landen Roupp
P
San Francisco Giants
+1.1
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.4 · 2027
ERA3.97
FIP4.13
xFIP3.32
SIERA3.51
K%22.2%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.3%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2027
K†5060
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p5125.4%
K%
p8228.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.262
FB+3.6 (39%)
CH+3.0 (19%)
SI (37%)
CU (29%)
CT-2.4 (12%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | San Jose Giants | 5 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 14 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 26 | 14 | 107 | 432 | 152 | 37 | 6 | 26.9% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 2.60 | 3.01 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 10 | 10 | 31 | 120 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 28.3% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 1.74 | 2.36 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 34 | 12 | 77 | 324 | 89 | 40 | 3 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 1.1% | 3.40 | 3.35 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 23 | 23 | 110 | 488 | 106 | 44 | 11 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 3.74 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 4 | 4 | 23 | 90 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 26.7% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 2.38 | 1.83 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 77 | 323 | 75 | 31 | 7 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 3.16 | 3.47 | +1.4 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 99 | 413 | 99 | 38 | 7 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 2.98 | 3.10 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 91 | 37 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 3.90 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 84 | 357 | 81 | 34 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 3.89 | 3.97 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 78 | 29 | 7 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 3.83 | 3.79 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 68 | 26 | 7 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 3.87 | 3.90 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 24 | 6 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 4.01 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SF | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 51 | 21 | 6 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.07 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SF | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SF | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 63 | 355 | 1485 | 370 | 148 | 24 | 24.9% | 10.0% | 1.6% | 3.06 | 3.13 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 35 | 200 | 836 | 208 | 83 | 14 | 24.9% | 10.0% | 1.6% | 3.06 | 3.13 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Landen Roupp (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | — | 3.89 | 23.3% | 13.9% | 254 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 82 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 81 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.11 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 107 | 80 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 80 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.22 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.01 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.54 | 200 | 80 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.82 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 211 | 79 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.09 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.04 | 4.09 | 165 | 79 |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 79 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 79 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 79 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.45 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 7.35 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.90 | 3.45 | 122 | 79 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 79 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 78 |
| Mikey O'Brien R 2024 · 3.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.58 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 1.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 110 | 78 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 78 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 78 |
| Chad Jenkins R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.60 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .296 | 3.92 | 12.5% | 0.4% | 30 | +0.32 | 3.60 | 123 | 78 |
| Iván Nova R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .283 | 4.33 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | +0.03 | 4.13 | 810 | 77 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 77 |
| Kenny Serwa R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.63 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 0.5% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.494 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.1 | $9M | +$7M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.1 | $10M | +$6M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $12M | $44M | +$32M | ||