Anderson Brito
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
5'10" / 155 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.8%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%12.5%
IP43
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
OFP—50
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 15 | 9 | 54 | 211 | 82 | 21 | 4 | 27.5% | 11.9% | 2.2% | 1.51 | 3.51 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 12 | 12 | 49 | 209 | 65 | 28 | 1 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 0.4% | 3.28 | 3.27 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 2 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TB | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 43 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | TB | — | — | 51 | 214 | 52 | 22 | 5 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.66 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TB | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 46 | 19 | 5 | 24.5% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 48 | 19 | 5 | 24.9% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 50 | 18 | 5 | 25.2% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 50 | 18 | 5 | 25.4% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 50 | 18 | 5 | 25.4% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 49 | 18 | 5 | 25.4% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | TB | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 47 | 18 | 5 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TB | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 46 | 17 | 5 | 25.1% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TB | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 24.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 24.5% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | TB | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | TB | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 23 | 111 | 452 | 117 | 58 | 6 | 25.9% | 12.9% | 1.2% | 2.35 | 3.23 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 41 | 200 | 814 | 211 | 105 | 11 | 25.9% | 12.9% | 1.2% | 2.35 | 3.23 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anderson Brito (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.05 | 24.9% | 15.1% | 137 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Justin Yeager R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.34 | 3.29 | 201 | 93 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 93 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 183 | 93 |
| Jacob Wallace R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.31 | 26.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .316 | 4.79 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 167 | +0.48 | 3.93 | 258 | 92 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.31 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.83 | 3.48 | 290 | 92 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 90 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 89 |
| Stephen Jones R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 89 |
| Camden Minacci R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.67 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .371 | 3.60 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 61 | -0.07 | 3.60 | 110 | 88 |
| Nic Enright R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.01 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.62 | 0.50 | 249 | 88 |
| Ryan Shreve R 2027 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.15 | 25.9% | 11.8% | 1.3% | .257 | 4.43 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 182 | +1.28 | 3.15 | 290 | 88 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.15 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.17 | 3.98 | 198 | 88 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 88 |
| Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 87 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 87 |
| River Ryan R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.67 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.19 | 3.24 | 182 | 87 |
| Magnus Ellerts R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 29.5% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .325 | 3.92 | 27.3% | 11.2% | 98 | +0.29 | 3.55 | 139 | 87 |
| Zac Leigh R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .270 | 4.50 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 164 | 87 |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.40 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.26 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.86 | 3.40 | 242 | 87 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $7M | $14M | +$6M | ||