Anderson Brito
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 22
RHP
5'10" / 155 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%26.0%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 54 | 211 | 82 | 21 | 4 | 60% | 3.6 | 27.5% | 11.9% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 1.51 | 3.39 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 54 | 211 | 82 | 21 | 4 | 60% | 3.6 | 38.9% | 10.0% | 28.9% | 1.9% | 1.51 | 2.19 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 12 | 12 | 49 | 209 | 65 | 28 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 8.5% | 0.4% | 3.28 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 12 | 12 | 49 | 209 | 65 | 28 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 31.1% | 13.4% | 17.7% | 0.5% | 3.28 | 2.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 8 | 8 | 32 | 146 | 42 | 21 | 3 | 100% | 4.0 | 22.2% | 16.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 3.34 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 71 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26.0% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.45 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | TB | — | — | 97 | 420 | 113 | 59 | 10 | — | — | 26.9% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 2.4% | 4.11 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 26.0% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.07 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 127 | 538 | 142 | 66 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 26.3% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.24 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TB | 28 | 28 | 157 | 661 | 176 | 74 | 17 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.6% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.09 | +2.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TB | 30 | 30 | 175 | 739 | 198 | 78 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.7% | 10.6% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 3.99 | +2.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TB | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 198 | 77 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.8% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.98 | +2.9 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TB | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 195 | 77 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.8% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.01 | +2.8 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TB | 28 | 28 | 167 | 706 | 188 | 76 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.7% | 10.7% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +2.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 160 | 674 | 178 | 74 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.23 | +2.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 165 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.41 | +1.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 152 | 69 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.7% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.61 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 130 | 547 | 138 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.83 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 63 | 266 | 70 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 26.3% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 2.5% | 4.29 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 109 | 460 | 122 | 52 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.6% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 4.14 | 4.05 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 160 | 63 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.7% | 10.6% | 16.2% | 2.5% | 4.03 | 3.95 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 173 | 68 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.8% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 2.5% | 3.98 | 3.94 | +2.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 177 | 70 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.8% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.97 | +2.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 174 | 70 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.7% | 10.7% | 16.0% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.06 | +2.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 166 | 69 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.5% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.19 | +2.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 155 | 67 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.1% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.36 | +1.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 144 | 65 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.56 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 131 | 62 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 224 | 1323 | 5585 | 1473 | 618 | 157 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.4% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 3.81 | +24.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 223 | 93 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.4% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 35 | 29 | 135 | 566 | 140 | 82 | 9 | 83% | 3.9 | 24.8% | 14.4% | 10.4% | 1.5% | 2.59 | 3.68 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 43 | 200 | 836 | 208 | 121 | 13 | 83% | 3.9 | 24.8% | 14.4% | 10.4% | 1.5% | 2.59 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anderson Brito (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.09 | 26.6% | 15.3% | 459 | -0.40 | — | — | — |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.39 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 3.0% | .297 | 4.58 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 274 | +0.19 | 4.22 | 373 | 93 |
| George Klassen R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.57 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .299 | 4.12 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 175 | +0.55 | 3.57 | 268 | 90 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 89 |
| Jackson Baumeister R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.31 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 1.2% | .270 | 5.38 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 127 | +2.07 | 3.31 | 226 | 88 |
| Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.88 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 1.9% | .273 | 5.75 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 107 | +1.87 | 3.88 | 192 | 88 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 84 |
| Will Watson R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .275 | 5.43 | 15.2% | 2.1% | 20 | +1.24 | 4.19 | 141 | 83 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 83 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 82 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 82 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 82 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.15 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .297 | 4.41 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 211 | +0.26 | 4.15 | 321 | 81 |
| Karson Milbrandt R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.6% | 14.4% | 1.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 340 | 81 |
| Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.29 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 79 | -0.32 | 3.12 | 132 | 81 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.9% | .309 | 3.76 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.91 | 2.15 | 702 | 81 |
| Luke Russo R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.67 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.8% | .326 | 4.43 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 112 | +0.76 | 3.67 | 213 | 81 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 24.5% | 14.7% | 3.6% | .284 | 4.49 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 292 | -0.37 | 4.07 | 408 | 80 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.63 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 117 | +0.47 | 3.63 | 209 | 80 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.80 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 778 | 80 |
| James Proctor R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 149 | 26.4% | 11.3% | 1.10 | 4.23 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |