Anderson Brito

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 155 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#306ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	15	9	54	1.51	2.19	38.9%	10.0%	—	K 27.5% · BB 11.9% · FIP 3.50
2025	21	A+HOU	12	12	49	3.28	2.43	31.1%	13.4%	—	K 23.9% · BB 15.4% · FIP 3.28
2026	22	A+TB	8	8	32	3.34	3.66	28.8%	14.4%	—	K 22.2% · BB 16.5% · FIP 4.73
2027PROJ	23	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.88	4.88	24.8%	15.6%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTB	8	8	42	4.65	4.56	25.1%	13.6%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTB	12	12	68	4.49	4.40	25.2%	12.4%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -1.2 / P90 6.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 82%

CompsCade Smith (age 22) · Jimmy Endersby (age 23) · Max Bain (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%24.8%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	211	82	21	4	60%	3.6	27.5%	11.9%	15.6%	2.2%	1.51	3.50	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	211	82	21	4	60%	3.6	27.5%	11.9%	15.6%	2.2%	1.51	3.50	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	54	211	82	21	4	60%	3.6	38.9%	10.0%	28.9%	1.9%	1.51	2.19	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	12	12	49	209	65	28	1	100%	4.1	23.9%	15.4%	8.5%	0.5%	3.28	3.28	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	12	12	49	209	65	28	1	100%	4.1	23.9%	15.4%	8.5%	0.5%	3.28	3.28	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	12	12	49	209	65	28	1	100%	4.1	31.1%	13.4%	17.7%	0.5%	3.28	2.43	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	8	8	32	146	42	21	3	100%	4.0	22.2%	16.5%	5.6%	2.6%	3.34	4.73	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	8	8	32	146	42	21	3	100%	4.0	22.2%	16.5%	5.6%	2.6%	3.34	4.73	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	8	8	32	146	42	21	3	100%	4.0	28.8%	14.4%	14.4%	2.1%	3.34	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.8%	15.6%	9.2%	2.8%	4.88	4.88	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	97	408	102	56	11	100%	5.7	25.1%	13.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.69	4.60	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	102	431	109	53	12	100%	6.0	25.2%	12.4%	12.8%	2.8%	4.53	4.44	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	108	454	115	55	13	100%	6.0	25.3%	12.1%	13.2%	2.8%	4.45	4.40	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	104	440	111	53	12	100%	6.1	25.2%	12.1%	13.1%	2.8%	4.44	4.44	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	99	420	105	51	12	100%	5.8	25.1%	12.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.52	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	92	391	97	49	12	100%	6.2	24.8%	12.5%	12.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.65	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	84	354	87	45	12	100%	6.0	24.5%	12.8%	11.7%	3.3%	4.73	4.83	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	75	317	76	42	11	100%	6.2	24.1%	13.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.91	5.03	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	66	280	66	38	11	100%	6.0	23.6%	13.5%	10.1%	3.8%	5.12	5.26	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	42	177	45	24	5	100%	5.2	25.1%	13.6%	11.5%	2.7%	4.65	4.56	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	68	287	72	36	8	100%	5.7	25.2%	12.4%	12.8%	2.7%	4.49	4.40	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	85	359	91	43	10	100%	6.1	25.3%	12.1%	13.2%	2.7%	4.41	4.36	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	89	376	95	45	10	100%	5.9	25.2%	12.1%	13.1%	2.8%	4.40	4.40	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	88	372	93	45	11	100%	5.9	25.1%	12.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.45	4.48	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	84	355	88	44	11	100%	6.0	24.8%	12.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.60	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	77	325	80	41	10	100%	5.9	24.5%	12.8%	11.7%	3.2%	4.68	4.78	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	70	296	71	39	10	100%	5.8	24.1%	13.1%	11.0%	3.4%	4.86	4.98	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	62	262	62	35	10	100%	6.2	23.6%	13.5%	10.1%	3.7%	5.06	5.20	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	112	665	2810	697	354	84	100%	5.9	24.8%	12.6%	12.2%	3.0%	4.59	4.24	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	209	106	25	100%	6.0	24.8%	12.6%	12.2%	3.0%	4.59	4.24	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		35	29	135	566	140	82	9	83%	3.9	24.8%	14.4%	10.4%	1.7%	2.59	3.74	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	43	200	836	208	121	14	83%	3.9	24.8%	14.4%	10.4%	1.7%	2.59	3.74	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 32 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.73 (+1.11)K% 28.8% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.77%	—	×0.770	22.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.38%	—	×1.150	16.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 49 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.28 (+0.85)K% 31.1% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.10%	—	×0.770	23.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.40%	—	×1.150	15.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.48%	÷1.297	×1.250	0.46%

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 27 IPFIP 3.90 → 5.28 (+1.38)K% 34.2% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.23%	—	×0.740	25.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×1.180	15.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷1.118	×1.300	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Astros · 26 IPFIP 0.14 → 1.52 (+1.38)K% 44.0% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.00%	—	×0.680	29.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.00%	—	×1.250	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 0.14 → 1.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anderson Brito (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.48	25.2%	12.5%	306	-0.40	—	—	—
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	85
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	84
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	83
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	82
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	82
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	82
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	81
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.79	22.7%	9.3%	231	-0.03	3.69	326	81
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	81
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	80
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	80
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	80
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	79
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	79
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	79
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	79
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	92	24.8%	12.9%	1.16	4.66
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42