Anderson Brito — OGILVIE

Anderson Brito P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 155 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%26.1%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$49M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4550

CMD4045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$10M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$9M	+$9M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$19M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	211	82	21	4	60%	3.6	27.5%	11.9%	15.6%	2.2%	1.51	3.50	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	211	82	21	4	60%	3.6	27.5%	11.9%	15.6%	2.2%	1.51	3.50	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	54	211	82	21	4	60%	3.6	38.9%	10.0%	28.9%	1.9%	1.51	2.19	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	12	12	49	209	65	28	1	100%	4.1	23.9%	15.4%	8.5%	0.5%	3.28	3.28	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	12	12	49	209	65	28	1	100%	4.1	23.9%	15.4%	8.5%	0.5%	3.28	3.28	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	12	12	49	209	65	28	1	100%	4.1	31.1%	13.4%	17.7%	0.5%	3.28	2.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	8	8	32	146	42	21	3	100%	4.0	22.2%	16.5%	5.6%	2.6%	3.34	4.73	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	8	8	32	146	42	21	3	100%	4.0	22.2%	16.5%	5.6%	2.6%	3.34	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	TB	8	8	32	146	42	21	3	100%	4.0	28.8%	14.4%	14.4%	2.1%	3.34	3.62	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	TB	2	2	8	34	9	5	1	100%	4.1	26.1%	14.1%	12.0%	2.6%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	40	180	51	26	4	—	—	28.3%	14.3%	13.9%	2.2%	3.57	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	127	538	142	66	14	100%	5.3	26.4%	12.3%	14.1%	2.6%	4.34	4.25	+1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	28	28	157	661	176	74	17	100%	5.6	26.7%	11.2%	15.4%	2.6%	4.19	4.09	+1.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	30	30	175	739	198	78	19	100%	5.8	26.8%	10.6%	16.3%	2.6%	4.07	3.99	+1.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	29	29	175	739	199	77	19	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.4%	16.5%	2.6%	4.01	3.97	+1.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	29	29	172	728	196	77	20	100%	5.9	26.9%	10.5%	16.4%	2.7%	4.01	4.01	+1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	28	28	167	706	189	75	20	100%	6.0	26.8%	10.7%	16.1%	2.8%	4.06	4.09	+1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	160	674	179	73	20	100%	5.9	26.6%	10.9%	15.7%	2.9%	4.16	4.23	+1.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	150	634	166	71	20	100%	6.0	26.2%	11.2%	15.0%	3.1%	4.31	4.40	+0.9
2035	31	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	140	591	153	68	20	100%	6.1	25.8%	11.6%	14.3%	3.4%	4.49	4.61	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	TB	22	22	130	547	139	65	20	100%	5.9	25.4%	11.9%	13.4%	3.6%	4.69	4.83	+0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	119	502	125	62	19	100%	5.9	24.9%	12.4%	12.5%	3.9%	4.92	5.08	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	63	266	70	33	7	100%	5.2	26.4%	12.3%	14.1%	2.7%	4.38	4.29	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	109	460	123	52	12	100%	5.7	26.7%	11.2%	15.4%	2.7%	4.23	4.13	+1.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	24	24	142	600	161	63	16	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.6%	16.3%	2.7%	4.11	4.03	+1.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	26	26	153	646	174	68	17	100%	5.9	26.9%	10.4%	16.5%	2.7%	4.05	4.01	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	26	26	156	659	177	69	18	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.5%	16.4%	2.8%	4.05	4.05	+1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	26	26	154	650	174	69	19	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.7%	16.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.14	+1.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	25	25	149	629	167	69	19	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.9%	15.7%	3.0%	4.21	4.28	+1.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	24	24	141	595	156	67	19	100%	5.9	26.2%	11.2%	15.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.45	+0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	133	562	145	65	19	100%	6.0	25.8%	11.6%	14.3%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	123	519	132	62	19	100%	6.2	25.4%	11.9%	13.4%	3.7%	4.75	4.89	+0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	113	477	119	59	19	100%	5.9	24.9%	12.4%	12.5%	4.0%	4.98	5.14	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		242	242	1435	6060	1597	675	186	100%	5.9	26.4%	11.1%	15.2%	3.1%	4.32	3.97	+16.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	223	94	26	100%	5.9	26.4%	11.1%	15.2%	3.1%	4.32	3.97	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		35	29	135	566	140	82	9	83%	3.9	24.8%	14.4%	10.4%	1.7%	2.59	3.74	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	43	200	836	208	121	14	83%	3.9	24.8%	14.4%	10.4%	1.7%	2.59	3.74	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anderson Brito (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	26.1%	14.1%	2.6%	—	4.10	26.7%	15.4%	459	-0.40	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	93
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	89
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	83
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	82
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	82
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	81
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	81
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	81
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	80
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	80
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	80
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	80
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	80
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	79
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	79
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	801	78
Spencer Strider R 2021 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	30.7%	11.6%	2.5%	.298	2.16	37.4%	29.6%	318	-1.21	1.65	589	78
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	78
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.8	147	26.4%	11.3%	1.13	4.27
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17