Steven Echavarria

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#122ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	AOAK	19	19	58	6.55	3.83	20.9%	12.8%	—	K 15.5% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.57
2025	19	A+OAK	26	25	104	4.59	3.62	19.5%	9.3%	—	K 15.0% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.51
2026	20	MIX2 levels	25	25	117	5.14	4.18	24.1%	10.0%	—	K 18.8% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.19
2027PROJ	21	MLBOAK	1	1	1	5.13	5.13	18.9%	11.6%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBOAK	13	13	68	4.85	4.75	20.6%	10.4%	0.5
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBOAK	19	19	100	4.65	4.54	21.6%	9.7%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$6M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%

CompsTy Cummings (age 22) · Josh Bostick (age 22) · Jamison Hill (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%18.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP137

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$34M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$36M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	15.5%	15.1%	0.4%	1.6%	6.55	4.57	—
2024	18	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	15.5%	15.1%	0.4%	1.6%	6.55	4.57	—
2024	18	A RAW	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.2%	1.4%	6.55	3.83	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.4%	4.59	4.51	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.4%	4.59	4.51	—
2025	19	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	19.5%	9.3%	10.2%	1.8%	4.59	3.62	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	117	518	125	52	17	100%	4.7	18.8%	11.5%	7.4%	4.1%	5.14	5.19	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	117	518	125	52	17	100%	4.7	18.8%	11.5%	7.4%	4.1%	5.14	5.19	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	117	518	125	52	17	100%	4.7	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.3%	5.14	4.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	OAK	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	5.13	5.13	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	137	580	119	60	18	100%	5.1	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.2%	4.89	4.79	+1.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	137	580	125	56	18	100%	5.3	21.6%	9.7%	12.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.58	+1.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	137	580	129	54	18	100%	5.5	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.1%	4.54	4.45	+1.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	105	443	100	40	13	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.38	+1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	105	443	101	40	13	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.39	4.36	+1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	102	433	99	39	13	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.40	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	98	413	94	38	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.48	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	91	385	86	36	13	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.3%	4.55	4.61	+0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	83	350	77	34	12	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.7%	12.4%	3.5%	4.70	4.79	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	74	314	68	32	12	100%	6.2	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	3.8%	4.88	4.99	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	66	279	59	29	11	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.5%	10.8%	4.0%	5.08	5.22	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	68	287	59	30	9	100%	5.2	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.75	+0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	100	422	91	41	13	100%	5.3	21.6%	9.7%	12.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.54	+1.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	20	20	114	481	107	44	14	100%	5.7	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.41	+1.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	93	393	89	35	12	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+1.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	96	405	92	36	12	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.32	+1.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	95	401	91	36	12	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.36	+1.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	92	388	88	36	12	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.1%	4.41	4.44	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	87	367	82	35	12	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.3%	4.50	4.56	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	79	334	74	32	12	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.7%	12.4%	3.5%	4.65	4.74	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	71	300	65	30	11	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	3.7%	4.83	4.94	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	63	266	56	28	10	100%	6.3	21.2%	10.5%	10.8%	3.9%	5.02	5.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	165	956	4035	894	383	128	100%	5.8	22.2%	9.5%	12.7%	3.2%	4.56	4.18	+13.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	187	80	27	100%	5.8	22.2%	9.5%	12.7%	3.2%	4.56	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		70	69	279	1251	209	150	36	99%	4.0	16.7%	12.0%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	4.81	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	49	200	897	150	108	26	99%	4.0	16.7%	12.0%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	4.81	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 94 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.34 (+1.06)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.14%	—	×0.770	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.150	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 24 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.55 (+1.06)K% 32.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.65%	—	×0.810	26.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.100	7.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.90%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 104 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.51 (+0.90)K% 19.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.51%	—	×0.770	15.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.31%	—	×1.150	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷0.921	×1.250	2.41%

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 58 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.57 (+0.84)K% 20.9% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.92%	—	×0.740	15.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×1.180	15.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.164	×1.300	1.58%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Echavarria (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.61	21.5%	11.7%	412	-0.52	—	—	—
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	87
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	87
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	87
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	86
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	84
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	84
Barrett Kent R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP	5.40	18.0%	14.0%	3.7%	.313	4.52	13.6%	-2.1%	27	-0.88	4.52	140	84
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.06	18.1%	9.6%	296	+0.01	3.86	496	83
Ben Kudrna R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP	5.08	19.1%	12.2%	3.7%	.302	4.25	18.7%	7.6%	105	-0.83	4.22	402	83
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	82
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	82
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	82
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	82
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	82
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	82
Adam Kloffenstein R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	18.4%	11.9%	3.8%	.340	5.08	19.6%	9.5%	299	-0.04	4.26	636	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	106	21.7%	9.8%	1.26	4.68
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Mike Bielecki ('84-'97, 9 WAR*)	6.2	95	18.4%*	9.1%*	1.15*	4.47*