Steven Echavarria

Steven Echavarria P Lansing Lugnuts

+0.7 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.7 · 2031

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.1%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%8.7%

IP104

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.7peak

2031

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	18	A	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	15.5%	15.1%	1.6%	6.55	4.60	+0.2
2025	19	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	15.0%	10.7%	2.4%	4.59	4.52	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	3	3	13	59	16	9	0	20.9%	17.5%	0.0%	3.38	3.56	+0.2
ROS	20	MLB	OAK	19	19	104	439	84	46	12	19.1%	10.4%	2.8%	4.71	4.71	+0.7
2026 Total	20	MLB	OAK	—	—	117	498	100	55	12	20.0%	11.0%	2.4%	4.56	4.58	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	OAK	20	20	109	461	92	44	13	20.1%	9.7%	2.7%	4.57	4.51	+1.0
2028	22	MLB	OAK	25	25	137	577	123	51	16	21.2%	8.9%	2.7%	4.40	4.30	+1.5
2029	23	MLB	OAK	29	29	162	683	150	58	18	22.0%	8.5%	2.7%	4.25	4.16	+2.1
2030	24	MLB	OAK	33	33	182	768	173	63	20	22.6%	8.2%	2.6%	4.14	4.07	+2.5
2031	25	MLB	OAK	33	33	184	777	178	63	20	22.9%	8.1%	2.6%	4.07	4.02	+2.7
2032	26	MLB	OAK	33	33	184	777	180	63	20	23.1%	8.1%	2.6%	4.02	3.99	+2.7
2033	27	MLB	OAK	33	33	183	771	179	62	20	23.2%	8.1%	2.6%	4.01	4.00	+2.7
2034	28	MLB	OAK	33	33	180	760	176	62	20	23.1%	8.1%	2.7%	4.02	4.03	+2.6
2035	29	MLB	OAK	32	32	176	743	171	61	20	23.0%	8.2%	2.7%	4.05	4.07	+2.5
2036	30	MLB	OAK	31	31	171	721	164	60	20	22.8%	8.3%	2.8%	4.10	4.14	+2.2
2037	31	MLB	OAK	30	30	165	695	157	59	20	22.5%	8.4%	2.9%	4.17	4.21	+2.0
2038	32	MLB	OAK	29	29	158	668	149	57	20	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	4.25	4.30	+1.8
2039	33	MLB	OAK	27	27	151	638	140	56	19	21.9%	8.8%	3.0%	4.34	4.40	+1.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			48	47	175	792	124	101	16	15.6%	12.8%	2.0%	5.14	4.48	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—			55	54	200	905	142	115	18	15.6%	12.8%	2.0%	5.14	4.48	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Echavarria (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	19.1%	10.4%	2.8%	—	4.30	21.2%	12.3%	408	-0.41	—	—	—
Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP-	3.99	21.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.302	2.67	25.1%	16.6%	74	-1.32	2.67	174	92
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	91
Josh Grosz R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	91
Micah Ottenbreit R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	91
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.17	16.8%	2.6%	91	+0.98	3.82	406	90
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	90
Shelby Lackey R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	89
Nick Sinacola R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	89
Ty Cummings R 2028 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	19.0%	10.5%	2.7%	.329	5.00	14.2%	5.9%	116	+0.70	4.30	233	89
Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	89
Trevor Martin R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	89
Will Sanders R 2028 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	89
Sam Carlson R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	88
Miguel Almonte R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.42	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.57	3.05	247	88
Mason Hickman R 2028 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP-	4.73	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.45	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.72	4.73	300	88
Nick Davila R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.07	17.3%	11.0%	196	+0.18	3.46	341	88
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	17.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.267	4.54	14.5%	3.5%	113	+0.45	4.06	202	88
Trevor Clifton R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	20	SP-	4.24	16.5%	12.0%	1.8%	.276	3.85	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.39	3.07	588	87
Austin Cates R 2028 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	87
Aaron Davenport R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.5	$23M	+$22M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.7	$25M	+$24M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.7	$26M	+$25M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.7	$27M	+$21M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.6	$26M	+$18M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+2.4	$25M	+$13M
Totals		$28M		$151M	+$123M