Steven Echavarria

Steven Echavarria P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.1 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%16.2%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL4550

CMD3550

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+1.2	$6M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+1.2	$6M	+$0.4M
Totals		$26M		$29M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	15.5%	15.1%	0.4%	1.6%	6.55	4.57	—
2024	18	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	15.5%	15.1%	0.4%	1.6%	6.55	4.57	—
2024	18	A RAW	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.2%	1.4%	6.55	3.83	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.4%	4.59	4.51	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.4%	4.59	4.51	—
2025	19	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	19.5%	9.3%	10.2%	1.8%	4.59	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	25	25	117	518	125	52	17	100%	4.7	18.8%	11.5%	7.4%	4.1%	5.14	5.19	—
YTD	20	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	25	25	117	518	125	52	17	100%	4.7	18.8%	11.5%	7.4%	4.1%	5.14	5.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	OAK	20	20	94	420	93	45	13	100%	4.7	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	3.1%	5.28	4.29	—
2026	20	AA RAW	OAK	5	5	24	98	32	7	4	100%	4.7	32.7%	7.1%	25.5%	4.1%	4.56	3.49	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	OAK	2	2	10	44	7	5	1	100%	5.2	16.2%	11.8%	4.4%	2.8%	5.13	5.13	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	128	562	132	57	18	—	—	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	3.2%	5.14	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	130	550	100	59	15	100%	4.8	18.1%	10.8%	7.4%	2.7%	4.90	4.81	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	137	577	115	57	16	100%	5.1	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	2.7%	4.65	4.51	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	142	599	127	55	16	100%	5.3	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	2.7%	4.45	4.33	+0.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	145	613	134	55	16	100%	5.6	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	2.6%	4.31	4.21	+1.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	147	621	138	55	16	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	2.6%	4.22	4.15	+1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	147	621	139	54	16	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.7%	13.7%	2.6%	4.17	4.13	+1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	145	612	137	54	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.7%	4.17	4.17	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	23	23	141	594	133	53	16	100%	6.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.25	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	134	567	125	52	17	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.32	4.38	+0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	126	533	116	51	17	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.47	4.56	+0.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	118	497	106	49	17	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.76	+0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	109	460	96	47	17	100%	6.1	20.9%	10.2%	10.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.99	-0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	100	422	86	45	16	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.7%	9.7%	3.9%	5.08	5.24	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	64	270	49	29	7	100%	4.9	18.1%	10.8%	7.4%	2.7%	4.86	4.77	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	20	20	100	422	84	42	11	100%	5.0	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	2.6%	4.61	4.47	+0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	120	507	107	47	13	100%	5.5	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	2.6%	4.41	4.29	+0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	130	549	120	49	14	100%	5.7	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	2.6%	4.27	4.17	+1.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	135	570	127	50	15	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	2.6%	4.18	4.11	+1.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	137	578	130	51	15	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.7%	13.7%	2.6%	4.13	4.09	+1.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	138	583	131	51	15	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.6%	4.13	4.13	+1.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	134	566	126	51	15	100%	6.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.4%	2.7%	4.18	4.21	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	21	21	128	540	119	50	15	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.28	4.34	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	20	20	120	507	110	48	15	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.52	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	112	473	101	47	15	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.60	4.71	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	103	435	91	45	15	100%	6.1	20.9%	10.2%	10.6%	3.5%	4.80	4.94	-0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	95	401	82	43	15	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.7%	9.7%	3.8%	5.03	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		262	262	1514	6394	1376	601	182	100%	5.8	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	2.8%	4.41	4.03	+15.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	182	79	24	100%	5.8	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	2.8%	4.41	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		70	69	279	1251	209	150	36	99%	4.0	16.7%	12.0%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	4.81	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	49	200	897	150	108	26	99%	4.0	16.7%	12.0%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	4.81	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Echavarria (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	16.2%	11.8%	2.8%	—	4.54	19.8%	9.9%	409	-0.59	—	—	—
Trevor Clifton R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	16.5%	12.0%	1.9%	.276	3.82	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.43	3.03	588	89
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	87
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	87
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	85
Karson Milbrandt R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	19	SP	4.37	16.5%	13.7%	1.7%	.330	4.48	20.2%	5.8%	282	+0.11	3.62	377	85
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	84
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	83
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.86	27.7%	21.2%	39	-1.24	2.86	139	83
Victor Lizarraga R 2023 · 4.07 FIP	19	SP	4.07	14.8%	9.6%	1.8%	.277	5.04	17.1%	3.7%	271	+0.97	3.82	490	83
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	83
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	83
Adam Kloffenstein R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	20	SP	5.13	17.7%	15.1%	2.9%	.299	4.77	18.7%	8.1%	329	-0.36	4.28	630	83
Emilio Vargas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	20	SP	4.70	17.4%	12.2%	2.8%	.287	4.15	19.8%	11.3%	229	-0.55	2.78	669	83
Nick Pivetta R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	14.6%	11.6%	2.7%	.288	3.74	23.5%	15.3%	478	-1.09	1.37	1,583	82
Jose Almonte R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	82
Trenton Denholm R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	.368	4.07	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.37	572	82
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	82
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	82
Victor Alcántara R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	15.7%	10.9%	2.3%	.337	4.10	16.3%	5.6%	267	-0.30	3.50	464	82
Keynan Middleton R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP	4.75	11.9%	10.1%	2.5%	.333	4.29	24.4%	15.0%	155	-0.46	3.38	438	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.2	132	21.0%	9.6%	1.12	4.51
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88