Steven Echavarria

Steven Echavarria P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%16.3%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL4550

CMD3045

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$6M	+$1M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+1.0	$5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$27M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	18	A	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	15.5%	15.1%	0.4%	1.4%	6.55	4.46	—
2024	18	A	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.2%	1.4%	6.55	3.83	—
2025	19	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.6%	4.59	4.63	—
2025	19	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	19.5%	9.3%	10.2%	1.8%	4.59	3.62	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	16	16	75	336	71	36	10	100%	4.7	16.3%	12.3%	3.9%	3.7%	5.50	5.33	-0.4
ROS	20	MLB	OAK	14	14	65	274	44	31	8	100%	4.6	16.3%	11.4%	4.8%	2.8%	5.10	5.10	-0.3
ROS	20	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.3%	11.4%	4.8%	2.8%	5.07	5.07	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	OAK	—	—	140	610	115	67	18	—	—	18.9%	11.0%	7.9%	2.9%	5.31	5.22	+0.3
2026 FULL	20	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	16.3%	11.4%	4.8%	2.8%	5.07	4.69	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	OAK	27	27	130	550	100	58	15	100%	4.8	18.2%	10.5%	7.7%	2.8%	4.88	4.79	+0.9
2028	22	MLB	OAK	27	27	137	577	116	56	16	100%	5.1	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.50	+1.4
2029	23	MLB	OAK	27	27	142	599	127	55	16	100%	5.3	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	2.7%	4.44	4.32	+1.8
2030	24	MLB	OAK	26	26	145	613	135	54	16	100%	5.6	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	2.7%	4.30	4.21	+2.0
2031	25	MLB	OAK	25	25	147	621	139	54	17	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.7%	13.7%	2.7%	4.21	4.15	+2.2
2032	26	MLB	OAK	25	25	147	621	140	54	17	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.6%	13.9%	2.7%	4.16	4.13	+2.2
2033	27	MLB	OAK	24	24	145	612	138	53	17	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.7%	13.8%	2.7%	4.17	4.17	+2.1
2034	28	MLB	OAK	23	23	141	594	133	53	17	100%	6.1	22.4%	8.9%	13.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.25	+1.9
2035	29	MLB	OAK	22	22	134	567	126	52	17	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.38	+1.6
2036	30	MLB	OAK	21	21	126	533	116	50	17	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	3.2%	4.47	4.56	+1.2
2037	31	MLB	OAK	20	20	118	497	107	48	17	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.8%	11.7%	3.4%	4.65	4.76	+0.9
2027	21	MLB	OAK	13	13	64	270	49	28	7	100%	4.9	18.2%	10.5%	7.7%	2.7%	4.85	4.76	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	OAK	20	20	100	422	85	41	11	100%	5.0	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	2.7%	4.61	4.47	+1.1
2029	23	MLB	OAK	22	22	120	507	108	46	13	100%	5.5	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	2.6%	4.41	4.29	+1.6
2030	24	MLB	OAK	23	23	130	549	121	48	14	100%	5.7	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	2.6%	4.27	4.18	+1.9
2031	25	MLB	OAK	23	23	135	570	128	50	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.7%	13.7%	2.6%	4.18	4.12	+2.0
2032	26	MLB	OAK	23	23	137	578	131	50	15	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.6%	13.9%	2.6%	4.13	4.10	+2.1
2033	27	MLB	OAK	23	23	138	583	131	51	15	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.7%	13.8%	2.7%	4.14	4.14	+2.0
2034	28	MLB	OAK	22	22	134	566	127	50	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	8.9%	13.6%	2.7%	4.19	4.22	+1.9
2035	29	MLB	OAK	21	21	128	540	120	49	16	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.34	+1.6
2036	30	MLB	OAK	20	20	120	507	111	48	16	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	3.1%	4.43	4.52	+1.2
2037	31	MLB	OAK	19	19	112	473	101	46	16	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.8%	11.7%	3.3%	4.61	4.72	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			229	229	1316	5558	1209	506	154	100%	5.7	21.8%	9.1%	12.6%	2.8%	4.33	3.94	+22.5
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	184	77	23	100%	5.7	21.8%	9.1%	12.6%	2.8%	4.33	3.94	+3.4
Career	—			61	60	237	1069	166	132	28	98%	3.9	15.5%	12.4%	3.2%	2.6%	5.35	4.81	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—			51	51	200	902	140	112	24	98%	3.9	15.5%	12.4%	3.2%	2.6%	5.35	4.81	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Echavarria (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	16.3%	11.4%	2.8%	—	4.53	19.9%	10.2%	409	-0.57	—	—	—
Trevor Clifton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP	4.19	16.5%	12.0%	1.8%	.276	3.89	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.30	2.95	588	88
Alex Royalty R 2028 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	14.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.302	4.74	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.40	4.34	151	86
Adam Hill R 2028 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.36	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.40	4.96	213	86
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	17.0%	11.2%	1.7%	.267	4.96	15.7%	4.7%	161	+0.96	3.95	250	85
Jake Peppers R 2028 · 5.49 FIP	22	SP	5.49	15.3%	12.2%	3.9%	.293	5.36	14.8%	-1.7%	88	-0.13	5.03	185	84
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	19.3%	11.2%	3.4%	.304	5.46	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.73	4.73	226	84
Ty Cummings R 2028 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.0%	10.5%	2.4%	.329	5.29	14.4%	5.8%	150	+1.15	4.14	267	84
Chris McElvain R 2028 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	15.8%	11.6%	2.9%	.275	5.18	16.0%	4.7%	191	+0.39	4.01	287	84
Garrett Cave R 2028 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	16.4%	14.9%	2.4%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	+0.05	4.92	156	84
Cameron Wagoner R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	14.8%	9.6%	1.8%	.326	3.24	29.8%	23.6%	27	-0.83	3.24	127	84
Aaron Davenport R 2028 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP	4.63	20.0%	13.2%	2.8%	.280	4.97	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.34	4.09	498	83
Josh Grosz R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	21	SP	4.85	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.61	21.1%	8.8%	156	-0.24	4.00	274	83
Micah Ottenbreit R 2027 · 4.22 FIP	21	SP	4.22	17.9%	11.8%	2.1%	.305	3.02	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.20	3.02	118	83
Jackson Wentworth R 2028 · 5.32 FIP	22	SP	5.32	16.7%	10.1%	4.3%	.299	5.25	14.9%	4.5%	73	-0.07	5.25	197	82
Trenton Denholm R 2028 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	18.3%	10.9%	2.3%	.368	4.05	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.33	527	82
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	3.97	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.17	3.97	279	82
Jordan Sheffield R 2028 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.62	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.79	248	82
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	20.3%	11.4%	2.6%	.278	5.40	15.4%	0.3%	159	+1.15	3.89	474	82
Will Sanders R 2028 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP	5.17	19.3%	11.8%	4.0%	.297	4.04	20.9%	12.5%	167	-1.13	3.89	259	82
Emilio Vargas R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP	4.89	17.4%	12.2%	3.1%	.287	4.19	19.8%	11.3%	229	-0.70	2.78	669	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	136	21.2%	9.3%	1.09	4.45
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	9	125	18.6%	7.3%	1.03	4.25