Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 44.4% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.16 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 44.4% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 23 | 23 | 101 | 466 | 107 | 61 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 17.7% | 15.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 6.22 | 5.31 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 23 | 23 | 101 | 466 | 107 | 61 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 6.22 | 4.08 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 112 | 513 | 118 | 55 | 16 | 96% | 4.5 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 5.54 | 5.11 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 112 | 513 | 118 | 55 | 16 | 96% | 4.5 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 4.32 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 128 | 545 | 140 | 54 | 14 | 96% | 4.9 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 3.16 | 4.36 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 128 | 545 | 140 | 54 | 14 | 96% | 4.9 | 25.7% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 3.16 | 3.60 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 90 | 379 | 73 | 41 | 13 | 94% | 5.0 | 17.1% | 11.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.68 | 5.11 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 90 | 379 | 73 | 41 | 13 | 94% | 5.0 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 18 | 91 | 415 | 103 | 46 | 20 | 86% | 4.3 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.66 | 7.50 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 18 | 91 | 415 | 103 | 46 | 20 | 86% | 4.3 | 24.8% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 4.8% | 5.66 | 5.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 16 | 16 | 71 | 319 | 64 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.92 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 6.07 | 6.07 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 6.07 | 6.07 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 136 | 593 | 119 | 73 | 26 | — | — | 20.0% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 5.47 | 5.87 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 19.9% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 6.07 | 5.69 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 134 | 78 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 5.87 | 5.85 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 157 | 662 | 136 | 77 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 5.77 | 5.77 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 157 | 662 | 136 | 77 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 5.75 | 5.78 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 65 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 5.87 | 5.85 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 90 | 51 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 5.77 | 5.77 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 105 | 59 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 5.75 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 51 | 307 | 1294 | 265 | 151 | 61 | 98% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 5.77 | 5.42 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 98 | 40 | 98% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 5.77 | 5.42 | -0.0 | ||
| Career | — | 131 | 125 | 596 | 2646 | 505 | 327 | 114 | 95% | 4.5 | 19.1% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.94 | 5.43 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 42 | 200 | 888 | 170 | 110 | 38 | 95% | 4.5 | 19.1% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.94 | 5.43 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Kloffenstein (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.07 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 4.9% | — | 5.80 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 468 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.94 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 5.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 358 | 83 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.01 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 4.6% | .287 | 5.32 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 28 | +0.31 | 5.01 | 282 | 80 |
| Brady Feigl R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 5.6% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 257 | 79 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.10 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.1% | .277 | 6.80 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 34 | +1.70 | 4.19 | 285 | 78 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 498 | 77 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.66 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 292 | 77 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2026 · 6.25 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.25 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 5.8% | .298 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 6.1% | 146 | -1.64 | 4.61 | 278 | 76 |
| Jharel Cotton R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.38 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 5.2% | .274 | 5.35 | 24.0% | 12.1% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.24 | 560 | 75 |
| Adam Mazur R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.57 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 360 | 75 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.39 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 4.4% | .317 | 4.80 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 208 | -0.59 | 4.20 | 416 | 74 |
| Jared Poland R 2024 · 7.12 FIP | 23 | SP | 7.12 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 7.12 | 114 | 74 |
| Josh Bostick R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 5.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 226 | 74 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.71 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 5.4% | .306 | 4.47 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 239 | -1.24 | 3.64 | 560 | 73 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.27 | 19.7% | 12.8% | 5.8% | .318 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 234 | -2.08 | 3.58 | 426 | 73 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 73 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.24 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 4.0% | .286 | 5.57 | 15.9% | 5.7% | 51 | +0.33 | 3.81 | 527 | 73 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.41 | 18.7% | 13.9% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.89 | 18.5% | 8.3% | 147 | -0.52 | 3.65 | 514 | 72 |
| José Buttó R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.12 | 18.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .294 | 3.68 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 185 | -1.44 | 2.63 | 741 | 72 |
| Hunter Stanley R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.46 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 4.5% | .286 | 5.58 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 50 | +0.12 | 3.73 | 184 | 72 |
| Zack Brown R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.18 | 16.0% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.64 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 70 | -0.54 | 3.39 | 490 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 154 | 20.4% | 11.9% | 1.84 | 5.86 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |