Cade Cavalli
P
Washington Nationals
+1.5
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 223 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.4 · 2026
ERA4.42
FIP4.53
xFIP5.00
SIERA4.88
K%20.9%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%12.5%
IP114
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p3222.8%
K%
p3119.4%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
CH+1.3 (9%)
SI (17%)
CU (28%)
SL-1.5 (12%)
FB-4.7 (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 24 | 24 | 123 | 522 | 175 | 60 | 5 | 26.9% | 12.6% | 1.2% | 3.36 | 3.06 | +3.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 21 | 21 | 101 | 424 | 110 | 41 | 3 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 0.8% | 4.17 | 2.89 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 3 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.16 | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 27 | 27 | 123 | 539 | 119 | 44 | 15 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.25 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 4 | 4 | 16 | 74 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 17.6% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 4.60 | 3.67 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 91 | 40 | 11 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 3.93 | +1.5 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 114 | 488 | 104 | 52 | 11 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 3.89 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 105 | 46 | 13 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.34 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 101 | 45 | 13 | 21.4% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 95 | 43 | 13 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 90 | 42 | 13 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 83 | 41 | 13 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 77 | 40 | 13 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.83 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 91 | 383 | 70 | 39 | 12 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.97 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 64 | 37 | 12 | 17.6% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.12 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 57 | 36 | 12 | 16.9% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 5.18 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 79 | 79 | 371 | 1590 | 373 | 171 | 27 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 1.7% | 4.12 | 3.42 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 856 | 201 | 92 | 15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 1.7% | 4.12 | 3.42 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Cavalli (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.41 | 21.4% | 11.9% | 334 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 79 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 78 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 78 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 77 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 77 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 76 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.73 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .251 | 4.86 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.13 | 3.73 | 399 | 76 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 76 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 75 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 75 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.17 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 0.7% | .320 | 4.13 | 15.5% | 7.9% | 217 | +0.96 | 3.17 | 300 | 75 |
| Elian Leyva R 2028 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.11 | 158 | 75 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 74 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 73 |
| Chad Jenkins R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.60 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .296 | 3.92 | 12.5% | 0.4% | 30 | +0.32 | 3.60 | 123 | 73 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 73 |
| Nick Morreale R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .271 | 3.72 | 11.7% | -1.1% | 14 | -0.25 | 2.97 | 280 | 72 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.4 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $4M | +1.2 | $10M | +$6M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.1 | $9M | +$6M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $5M | +1.0 | $9M | +$4M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $7M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $17M | $43M | +$26M | ||