Cade Cavalli
P
Washington Nationals
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 223 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 2.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION99 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10293vR 83
ERA3.44
FIP3.41
K%24.4%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%16.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p5025.2%
K%
p6725.4%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
CH+1.3 (8%)
SI (15%)
CU (28%)
CT (1%)
SL-1.5 (11%)
FB-4.7 (52%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 123 | 522 | 175 | 60 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.9% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 1.2% | 3.36 | 3.07 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 123 | 522 | 175 | 60 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 33.5% | 11.5% | 22.0% | 1.0% | 3.36 | 2.25 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 101 | 424 | 110 | 41 | 3 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 0.7% | 4.17 | 2.85 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 101 | 424 | 110 | 41 | 3 | 100% | 4.8 | 25.9% | 9.7% | 16.3% | 0.7% | 4.17 | 2.53 | +3.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 41.9% | 16.1% | 25.8% | 0.0% | 2.16 | 1.60 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 41.9% | 16.1% | 25.8% | 0.0% | 2.16 | 1.78 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 27 | 123 | 539 | 119 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 27 | 123 | 539 | 119 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 3.83 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 20 | 20 | 99 | 433 | 110 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 18.0% | 1.8% | 3.83 | 2.90 | +2.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 67 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 16.6% | 2.5% | 3.44 | 3.41 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 67 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 16.6% | 2.5% | 3.44 | 3.41 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 163 | 707 | 177 | 53 | 15 | — | — | 25.0% | 7.6% | 17.5% | 2.1% | 3.68 | 3.10 | +4.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 163 | 690 | 177 | 53 | 15 | — | — | 25.6% | 7.7% | 17.9% | 2.2% | 3.68 | 3.10 | +4.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 144 | 607 | 146 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 8.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.89 | +2.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 137 | 579 | 136 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 4.05 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 124 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.25 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 120 | 508 | 112 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 111 | 470 | 100 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 88 | 42 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 93 | 392 | 76 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 5.13 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 139 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 8.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.89 | +2.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 129 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 4.05 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 118 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.8% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.25 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 106 | 43 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 95 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 83 | 40 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 5.02 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 69 | 36 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 5.13 | 5.32 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 176 | 176 | 1007 | 4286 | 962 | 365 | 127 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.91 | +17.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 851 | 191 | 72 | 25 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 95 | 95 | 454 | 1949 | 470 | 191 | 35 | 100% | 4.8 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 1.8% | 4.04 | 3.28 | +11.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 858 | 207 | 84 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 1.8% | 4.04 | 3.28 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Cavalli (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.4% | 8.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.06 | 23.5% | 15.3% | 410 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 73 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 72 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.95 | 27.5% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 302 | 71 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 71 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 70 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 70 |
| Stephen Fife R 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.20 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.2% | .329 | 3.62 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.42 | 3.20 | 179 | 70 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 70 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 69 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 69 |
| Markus Solbach R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 68 |
| Brandon White R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 24.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 264 | 68 |
| Landen Roupp R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.19 | 25.3% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 414 | 68 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 67 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 66 |
| Alex Meyer R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.04 | 25.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 230 | 66 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.74 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 256 | 66 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 66 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 66 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 123 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 1.22 | 4.35 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |