Cade Cavalli

P Washington Nationals

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 223 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 3.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	3	3	8	2.16	1.78	41.9%	16.1%	—	K 41.9% · BB 16.1% · FIP 1.60
2025	26	MIX4 levels	27	27	123	4.92	3.83	22.1%	8.2%	2.3	K 20.1% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.11
2026	27	MLBWSH	32	32	170	3.02	2.97	28.3%	6.8%	5.2
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	24	24	144	3.64	3.59	27.4%	7.1%	3.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBWSH	20	20	119	3.71	3.75	26.8%	7.3%	2.4
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBWSH	18	18	105	3.86	3.96	26.1%	7.6%	1.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 7.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.820First FA2030Options2

2027Arb-1$7M2028Arb-2$9M2029Arb-3$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%83

FB Velo82

xwOBA vs66

Form1.71 ERA (proj 3.64) · K 37.8% (proj 27.4%) · BB 6.1% (proj 7.1%) ▲▲ last 60d · 21 IP through Oct 27

CompsKodai Senga (age 30) · Jacob deGrom (age 28) · Jimmy Nelson (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.64

FIP3.59

K%27.4%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%20.3%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6327.4%

p8328.3%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2025

Service 3.820 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$7M	+3.2	$30M	+$23M
2028	Arb-2	$9M	+2.4	$18M	+$10M
2029	Arb-3	$10M	+1.8	$12M	+$4M
Totals		$26M		$60M	+$37M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$10.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$4.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	123	522	175	60	5	100%	5.1	26.9%	12.6%	14.3%	1.1%	3.36	3.05	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	123	522	175	60	5	100%	5.1	33.5%	11.5%	22.0%	1.0%	3.36	2.25	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	101	424	110	41	3	100%	4.8	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	0.8%	4.17	2.88	+3.2
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	101	424	110	41	3	100%	4.8	25.9%	9.7%	16.3%	0.7%	4.17	2.53	+3.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	8	31	13	5	0	100%	2.8	41.9%	16.1%	25.8%	0.0%	2.16	1.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	8	31	13	5	0	100%	2.8	41.9%	16.1%	25.8%	0.0%	2.16	1.60	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	8	31	13	5	0	100%	2.8	41.9%	16.1%	25.8%	0.0%	2.16	1.78	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	123	539	119	44	15	100%	4.5	20.1%	7.6%	12.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.11	+1.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	123	539	119	44	15	100%	4.5	20.1%	7.6%	12.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.11	+1.9
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	27	123	539	119	44	15	100%	4.5	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	2.8%	4.92	3.83	+2.3
2026	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	170	706	200	48	18	100%	5.3	28.3%	6.8%	21.5%	2.5%	3.02	2.97	+5.2
2026	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	170	706	200	48	18	100%	5.3	28.3%	6.8%	21.5%	2.5%	3.02	2.97	+5.2
2026	27	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	32	32	170	706	200	48	18	100%	5.3	28.3%	6.8%	21.5%	2.5%	3.02	2.97	+5.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	43	223	948	246	65	25	100%	5.2	25.9%	6.9%	19.1%	2.6%	3.52	3.23	+6.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	24	24	144	608	167	43	17	100%	6.0	27.4%	7.1%	20.3%	2.8%	3.64	3.59	+3.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	125	529	142	39	16	100%	6.0	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	2.9%	3.71	3.75	+2.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	111	468	122	36	15	100%	6.2	26.1%	7.6%	18.5%	3.1%	3.86	3.96	+1.9
2030	31	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	97	411	104	33	14	100%	6.1	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	3.4%	4.06	4.19	+1.4
2031	32	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	82	347	85	29	13	100%	5.9	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	3.6%	4.29	4.45	+0.9
2032	33	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	65	274	65	24	11	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	3.9%	4.55	4.73	+0.5
2033	34	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	46	196	45	18	8	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	4.2%	4.84	5.03	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	119	502	135	37	15	100%	6.0	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	2.9%	3.71	3.75	+2.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	105	443	116	34	14	100%	5.8	26.1%	7.6%	18.5%	3.1%	3.86	3.96	+1.8
2030	31	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	93	393	100	31	13	100%	5.8	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	3.4%	4.06	4.19	+1.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	78	329	81	28	12	100%	6.0	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	3.6%	4.29	4.45	+0.9
2032	33	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	62	262	62	23	10	100%	6.2	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	3.9%	4.55	4.73	+0.5
2033	34	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	42	177	40	17	7	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	4.2%	4.84	5.03	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		126	126	721	3053	779	234	96	100%	5.7	25.5%	7.7%	17.8%	3.1%	3.92	3.64	+15.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	847	216	65	27	100%	5.7	25.5%	7.7%	17.8%	3.1%	3.92	3.64	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		107	107	525	2222	559	203	44	100%	4.9	25.2%	9.1%	16.0%	2.0%	3.75	3.23	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	846	213	77	17	100%	4.9	25.2%	9.1%	16.0%	2.0%	3.75	3.23	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 65 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.06 (+0.41)K% 25.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.09%	—	×0.860	21.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.06%	—	×0.900	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷0.960	×1.100	3.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 6 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.40 (+1.10)K% 38.1% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.770	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×1.150	21.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.016	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 97 IPFIP 2.55 → 2.88 (+0.33)K% 25.9% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.94%	—	×0.880	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×1.050	10.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.084	×1.100	0.76%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAHarrisburg Senators · 58 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.38 (+0.78)K% 32.9% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.92%	—	×0.810	26.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.40%	—	×1.100	15.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷1.037	×1.200	0.95%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 41 IPFIP 0.61 → 1.76 (+1.15)K% 44.9% → 34.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.94%	—	×0.770	34.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.59%	—	×1.150	8.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.63%	÷0.906	×1.250	0.87%

Result: FIP 0.61 → 1.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 25 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.09 (+0.39)K% 19.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.83%	—	×0.880	17.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.74%	—	×1.050	11.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷0.968	×1.100	1.88%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Cavalli (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	27.4%	7.1%	2.8%	—	3.95	26.1%	18.5%	334	+0.36	—	—	—
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	67
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	66
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	720	66
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	64
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	62
Frankie Montas R 2021 · 3.32 FIP	28	SP	3.32	26.6%	7.2%	2.8%	.291	3.94	23.0%	14.6%	295	+0.62	2.82	1,009	62
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	60
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	60
Joe Ross R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP	3.95	23.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.266	3.90	19.6%	10.7%	86	-0.05	3.19	812	59
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	59
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	59
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	59
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	59
Zack Wheeler R 2018 · 3.04 FIP	28	SP	3.04	24.1%	7.4%	1.9%	.274	2.75	25.3%	19.9%	480	-0.29	2.28	1,890	58
Kutter Crawford R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	28	SP	4.53	23.1%	6.7%	4.6%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	741	58
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	58
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	57
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	55
Yu Darvish R 2014 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	30.1%	7.9%	2.1%	.331	3.32	28.6%	21.1%	307	+0.62	1.97	1,798	55
Carlos Carrasco R 2015 · 2.67 FIP	28	SP	2.67	29.6%	5.6%	2.5%	.299	3.00	27.8%	22.6%	538	+0.33	2.26	1,827	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	99	25.8%	7.6%	1.20	3.88
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Mel Queen ('66-'72, 4 WAR*)	1.9	97	24.2%*	9.0%*	1.27*	3.77*
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*