Cade Cavalli — OGILVIE

Cade Cavalli P Washington Nationals

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 223 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION165 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 81

ERA3.41

FIP3.37

K%26.8%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%19.5%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 179 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†5060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p8228.2%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

CH+1.3 (8%)

SI (12%)

CU (27%)

CT (5%)

SL-1.5 (14%)

FB-4.7 (46%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.820 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.8	$13M	+$8M
2028	Arb-3	$9M	+1.5	$10M	+$3M
2029	Arb-4	$10M	+1.1	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$32M	+$13M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$10.3M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$4.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	123	522	175	60	5	100%	5.1	26.9%	12.6%	14.3%	1.1%	3.36	3.05	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	123	522	175	60	5	100%	5.1	33.5%	11.5%	22.0%	1.0%	3.36	2.25	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	101	424	110	41	3	100%	4.8	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	0.8%	4.17	2.88	+2.6
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	101	424	110	41	3	100%	4.8	25.9%	9.7%	16.3%	0.7%	4.17	2.53	+3.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	8	31	13	5	0	100%	2.8	41.9%	16.1%	25.8%	0.0%	2.16	1.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	8	31	13	5	0	100%	2.8	41.9%	16.1%	25.8%	0.0%	2.16	1.60	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	8	31	13	5	0	100%	2.8	41.9%	16.1%	25.8%	0.0%	2.16	1.78	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	123	539	119	44	15	100%	4.5	19.7%	7.6%	12.1%	3.2%	4.92	4.15	+1.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	123	539	119	44	15	100%	4.5	19.7%	7.6%	12.1%	3.2%	4.92	4.15	+1.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	27	123	539	119	44	15	100%	4.5	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	2.8%	4.92	3.83	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	42	218	929	240	65	25	100%	5.2	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	2.7%	3.60	3.28	+4.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	31	31	165	687	194	48	18	100%	5.3	28.2%	7.0%	21.3%	2.6%	3.12	3.04	+3.8
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	31	31	165	687	194	48	18	100%	5.3	28.2%	7.0%	21.3%	2.6%	3.12	3.04	+3.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	WSH	31	31	165	687	194	48	18	100%	5.3	28.2%	7.0%	21.3%	2.6%	3.12	3.04	+3.8
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	WSH	31	31	165	687	194	48	18	100%	5.3	28.2%	7.0%	21.3%	2.6%	3.12	3.04	+3.8
ROS	27	MLB MLE	WSH	2	2	14	59	16	4	2	100%	7.0	26.8%	7.2%	19.5%	2.9%	3.41	3.37	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB CTX	WSH	2	2	14	59	16	4	2	100%	7.0	26.8%	7.2%	19.5%	2.9%	3.41	3.37	+0.3
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	179	746	210	52	20	—	—	28.1%	7.0%	21.1%	2.6%	3.14	3.06	+4.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	179	754	210	52	20	—	—	27.8%	6.9%	20.9%	2.6%	3.14	3.07	+4.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	144	607	158	45	18	100%	6.0	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	2.9%	3.79	3.80	+1.9
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	137	579	148	44	18	100%	6.0	25.5%	7.6%	17.9%	3.1%	3.89	3.96	+1.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	129	545	135	43	18	100%	5.9	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	3.3%	4.06	4.17	+1.1
2030	31	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	120	508	122	42	18	100%	6.0	24.1%	8.2%	15.8%	3.5%	4.27	4.40	+0.7
2031	32	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	111	470	109	41	18	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.6%	14.6%	3.7%	4.50	4.66	+0.3
2032	33	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	102	431	97	39	17	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	4.0%	4.76	4.94	-0.0
2033	34	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	93	392	84	38	17	100%	6.2	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	4.3%	5.05	5.24	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	137	578	151	43	17	100%	6.0	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	2.9%	3.79	3.80	+1.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	130	549	140	42	17	100%	5.9	25.5%	7.6%	17.9%	3.1%	3.89	3.96	+1.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	123	519	129	41	17	100%	6.2	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	3.3%	4.06	4.17	+1.1
2030	31	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	114	481	116	40	17	100%	6.0	24.1%	8.2%	15.8%	3.5%	4.27	4.40	+0.7
2031	32	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	106	448	104	39	17	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.6%	14.6%	3.7%	4.50	4.66	+0.3
2032	33	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	97	410	92	37	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	4.0%	4.76	4.94	-0.0
2033	34	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	84	355	76	34	15	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	4.3%	5.05	5.24	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		176	176	1022	4325	1063	344	142	100%	5.8	24.6%	8.0%	16.6%	3.3%	4.11	3.84	+13.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	846	208	67	28	100%	5.8	24.6%	8.0%	16.6%	3.3%	4.11	3.84	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		106	106	520	2203	551	203	44	100%	4.9	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.0%	3.79	3.26	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	847	212	78	17	100%	4.9	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.0%	3.79	3.26	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Cavalli (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	21.6%	7.7%	3.1%	—	3.97	25.5%	17.9%	410	-0.34	—	—	—
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	68
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	67
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	65
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	64
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	63
Dinelson Lamet R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	27	SP	3.74	32.7%	9.2%	4.1%	.286	2.90	31.4%	21.8%	148	-0.84	2.11	778	63
Austin Voth R 2019 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	23.5%	6.1%	2.9%	.305	4.56	21.1%	13.5%	209	+1.06	3.41	1,057	62
Rubby De La Rosa R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP-	4.09	24.3%	8.6%	3.6%	.248	4.13	27.6%	18.3%	42	+0.04	4.04	281	62
Stephen Fife R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SP	3.11	18.8%	8.1%	1.1%	.329	3.65	14.1%	8.3%	152	+0.54	3.11	179	62
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	62
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	62
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	61
Shohei Ohtani R 2021 · 3.14 FIP	27	SP	3.14	29.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.259	2.86	32.4%	24.1%	298	-0.28	1.76	613	61
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	60
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	60
Barry Enright R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	15.9%	4.4%	2.0%	.306	3.95	13.3%	9.2%	226	+0.53	3.26	315	60
Dustin Crenshaw R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	27	SP	3.24	16.4%	2.7%	2.2%	.280	3.67	13.9%	11.4%	168	+0.43	3.24	238	59
Jesse Scholtens R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	20.8%	8.2%	3.3%	.314	4.58	19.0%	11.3%	215	+0.40	3.40	876	59
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	26.3%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.55	19.5%	11.7%	166	-0.14	3.87	506	59
Frankie Montas R 2020 · 4.74 FIP	27	SP	4.74	25.3%	9.7%	4.6%	.326	3.39	25.2%	18.3%	331	-1.35	2.82	1,009	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	123	23.8%	8.2%	1.32	4.28
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75