Carlos Carrasco

P Gwinnett Stripers
Age 40 RHP 6'4" / 224 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027
Overview
AAARP
YearAgeLvl / TeamGGSIPERAFIPK%BB%WARMLE rates
202437MIX3 levels23231105.554.6620.1%7.2%0.9K 19.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.69
202538MIX2 levels29261345.254.1017.6%7.4%2.1K 15.9% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.23
202639MIX2 levels166523.634.4316.0%7.3%0.1K 14.2% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ40MLBATL88464.984.8915.3%7.0%0.3
2028PROJ41MLBATL33205.195.3314.1%7.8%0.0
Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
Contract
No contract data on file.
Skills · percentileStatcast 2026
FB Velo12
K%10
xwOBA vs10
CompsFrancisco Campos (age 42) · Pablo Ortega (age 40) · Yasutomo Kubo (age 38)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110
ERA4.98
FIP4.89
K%15.3%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%8.2%
Proj IP46
Value2027 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
K: -2.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-2KBB: +0.8 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+1BBCONTACT: -2.0 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-2CONTACTSTAM: +1.9 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+2STAMTotal WAR: -0.18 (46 IP)-0.2WAR
0.30.02728
Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p1019.0%
K%
p109.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.432

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
200922MLB MLECleveland Indians552211211106100%4.59.8%8.9%0.9%5.4%8.876.34-0.2
200922MLB RAWCleveland Indians552211211106100%4.59.8%8.9%0.9%5.4%8.876.95-0.4
201023MLB MLECleveland Indians774518838136100%6.420.2%6.9%13.3%3.2%3.834.03+0.7
201023MLB RAWCleveland Indians774518838136100%6.420.2%6.9%13.3%3.2%3.834.02+0.7
201124MLB MLECleveland Indians2121125536853715100%5.915.9%6.9%9.0%2.8%4.624.18+1.8
201124MLB RAWCleveland Indians2121125536853715100%5.915.9%6.9%9.0%2.8%4.624.19+1.8
201326MLB MLECleveland Indians157472183016447%3.113.8%7.3%6.4%1.8%6.753.88+0.4
201326MLB RAWCleveland Indians157472183016447%3.113.8%7.3%6.4%1.8%6.753.96+0.3
201427MLB MLECleveland Indians401413452914028735%3.426.5%5.3%21.2%1.3%2.552.26+3.8
201427MLB RAWCleveland Indians401413452914028735%3.426.5%5.3%21.2%1.3%2.552.32+3.7
201528MLB MLECleveland Indians30301847302164118100%6.129.6%5.6%24.0%2.5%3.632.67+6.4
201528MLB RAWCleveland Indians30301847302164118100%6.129.6%5.6%24.0%2.5%3.632.69+6.4
201629MIX MLE2 levels26261506171563322100%5.825.0%5.3%19.7%3.5%3.293.59+3.3
201629MIX RAW2 levels26261506171563322100%5.825.3%5.3%19.9%3.6%3.293.59+3.3
201730MLB MLECleveland Indians32322007982264421100%6.228.3%5.5%22.8%2.6%3.292.85+6.5
201730MLB RAWCleveland Indians32322007982264421100%6.228.3%5.5%22.8%2.6%3.292.87+6.5
201831MIX MLE2 levels3331196797235402194%5.929.5%5.0%24.5%2.7%3.312.72+6.7
201831MIX RAW2 levels3331196797235402194%5.929.5%5.0%24.5%2.6%3.312.71+6.8
201932MIX MLE3 levels271285359104171844%3.128.2%4.4%23.8%5.3%5.084.18+0.4
201932MIX RAW3 levels271285359104171844%3.129.0%4.7%24.2%5.0%5.084.01+0.5
202033MLB MLECleveland Indians12126828082278100%5.729.3%9.6%19.6%2.9%2.913.42+1.7
202033MLB RAWCleveland Indians12126828082278100%5.729.3%9.6%19.6%2.9%2.913.41+1.7
202134MIX MLE3 levels151560266592115100%4.021.1%7.6%13.5%5.1%6.125.07+0.2
202134MIX RAW3 levels151560266592115100%4.022.2%7.9%14.3%5.6%6.125.42-0.0
202235MLB MLENew York Mets29291526451523917100%5.223.6%6.0%17.5%2.6%3.973.33+3.9
202235MLB RAWNew York Mets29291526451523917100%5.223.6%6.0%17.5%2.6%3.973.32+3.9
202336MIX MLE2 levels222297443714018100%4.415.8%9.1%6.7%4.3%6.405.29+0.1
202336MIX RAW2 levels222297443714018100%4.416.0%9.0%7.0%4.1%6.405.29+0.1
202437MIX MLE3 levels2323110473953420100%4.819.9%7.4%12.5%4.3%5.554.69+0.9
202437MIX MLE3 levels2323110473953420100%4.819.9%7.4%12.5%4.3%5.554.69+0.9
202437MIX RAW3 levels2323110473953420100%4.820.1%7.2%12.9%4.2%5.554.66+0.9
202538MIX MLE2 levels2926134580102431690%4.615.9%7.0%9.0%2.9%5.254.23+1.8
202538MIX MLE2 levels2926134580102431690%4.615.9%7.0%9.0%2.9%5.254.23+1.8
202538MIX RAW2 levels2926134580102431690%4.617.6%7.4%10.2%2.8%5.254.10+2.1
202639MIX MLE2 levels166522193516738%3.214.2%6.7%7.5%3.4%3.634.61-0.0
202639MIX MLE2 levels166522193516738%3.214.2%6.7%7.5%3.4%3.634.61-0.0
202639MIX RAW2 levels166522193516738%3.216.0%7.3%8.7%3.2%3.634.43+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career—34328617047146170345022483%5.023.8%6.3%17.5%3.1%4.243.60+37.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
202740MLBATL884619430146100%5.815.3%7.0%8.2%3.3%4.984.89+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
202841MLB MLEATL3320821263100%6.514.1%7.8%6.4%3.7%5.195.33+0.0
202841MLB CTXATL3320841273100%6.714.1%7.8%6.4%3.7%5.195.33+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— RAW34628917247228171545622784%5.023.7%6.3%17.4%3.1%4.253.62+37.1
/ 200 IP— RAW4034200839199532684%5.023.7%6.3%17.4%3.1%4.253.62+4.3
Career— MLE38231818617790181449424183%4.923.3%6.3%16.9%3.1%4.193.64+37.1
/ 200 IP— MLE4134200837195532683%4.923.3%6.3%16.9%3.1%4.193.64+4.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 35 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.38 (+0.26)K% 19.2% → 16.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×= MLE
K% /BF19.18%—×0.86016.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF8.90%—×0.9008.01%
HR / BF /BF2.74%÷1.000×1.1003.01%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 88 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.59 (+0.26)K% 18.5% → 15.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×= MLE
K% /BF18.48%—×0.86015.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF7.07%—×0.9006.36%
HR / BF /BF1.63%÷0.961×1.1001.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 7 IPFIP 2.45 → 2.86 (+0.41)K% 19.2% → 15.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×= MLE
K% /BF19.23%—×0.81015.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF7.69%—×1.1008.46%
HR / BF /BF0.00%÷0.925×1.2000.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.45 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 5 IPFIP 9.63 → 10.47 (+0.84)K% 31.8% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×= MLE
K% /BF31.82%—×0.88028.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF13.64%—×1.05014.32%
HR / BF /BF13.64%÷1.039×1.10014.43%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 9.63 → 10.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player162sIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION8.89823.5%6.6%1.224.27
Mike Minor ('22)7.012821.6%7.0%1.304.25
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)9.012120.4%*8.5%*1.10*4.16*
Chris Capuano ('16)7.111919.5%7.5%1.234.38
Danny Darwin ('78-'98, 36 WAR*)15.115120.5%*6.7%*1.21*4.02*
Jeff Samardzija ('20)8.215021.0%7.1%1.124.15
Don Robinson ('78-'92, 16 WAR*)9.813120.5%*7.8%*1.26*4.41*