Carlos Carrasco
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 39
RHP
6'4" / 224 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION73 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.74
FIP4.60
xFIP4.99
SIERA4.96
K%16.5%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%8.7%
IP74
K†4040
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p3022.5%
K%
p1016.0%
xwOBA vs
p150.354
CH+1.8 (21%)
SI (22%)
CU (10%)
SL-5.5 (27%)
FB-9.6 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 30 | 30 | 184 | 730 | 216 | 41 | 18 | 29.6% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 3.63 | 2.67 | +5.9 |
| 2016 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 26 | 26 | 150 | 617 | 156 | 33 | 22 | 25.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.29 | 3.60 | +3.2 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 32 | 32 | 200 | 798 | 226 | 44 | 21 | 28.3% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 3.29 | 2.86 | +5.9 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 33 | 31 | 196 | 797 | 235 | 40 | 21 | 29.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 3.31 | 2.72 | +6.1 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 27 | 12 | 85 | 359 | 104 | 17 | 18 | 28.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.08 | 4.19 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 12 | 12 | 68 | 280 | 82 | 27 | 8 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 2.91 | 3.42 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | New York Mets | 15 | 15 | 60 | 266 | 59 | 21 | 15 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.12 | 5.07 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | New York Mets | 29 | 29 | 152 | 645 | 152 | 39 | 17 | 23.6% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 3.33 | +3.7 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | New York Mets | 22 | 22 | 97 | 443 | 71 | 40 | 18 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 6.40 | 5.30 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 37 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 23 | 23 | 110 | 473 | 95 | 34 | 20 | 19.9% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.55 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 38 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 29 | 26 | 134 | 580 | 102 | 43 | 16 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 5.25 | 4.32 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 11 | 6 | 39 | 161 | 30 | 8 | 5 | 18.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.00 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 39 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 45 | 21 | 10 | 16.5% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.60 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 39 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 104 | 435 | 75 | 29 | 15 | 17.3% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 4.09 | 4.47 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 39 | 22 | 10 | 14.3% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 5.31 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 289 | 264 | 1475 | 6149 | 1510 | 389 | 202 | 24.6% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 3.63 | +30.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 36 | 200 | 834 | 205 | 53 | 27 | 24.6% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Carrasco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 16.1% | 7.9% | 3.5% | — | 5.43 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 64 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 225 | 70 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 64 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2024 · 5.53 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 211 | 62 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 60 |
| Chris Young R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.65 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 242 | 56 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 56 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 54 |
| Francisco Campos R 2029 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 53 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.32 | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.23 | 10.0% | 1.8% | 235 | -0.09 | 3.68 | 428 | 53 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 53 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 51 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 49 |
| Tim Hudson R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 48 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 48 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 39 | SP- | 3.92 | 8.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% | .262 | 4.72 | 13.3% | 7.1% | 148 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 375 | 47 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 43 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 39 | SW | 4.13 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.0% | .264 | 5.63 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 1.98 | 133 | 35 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 29 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2023 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 26 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2023 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 25 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.