Nathan Flewelling

Nathan FlewellingC Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION335 act + 223 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .303 / .338

PA223

HR6

K%34

BB%12

BABIP285

ISO140

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$17M	+$16M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.8	$17M	+$16M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.0	$16M	+$16M
2032	Arb-1	$6M	+3.0	$15M	+$12M
2033	Arb-2	$10M	+3.1	$15M	+$10M
2034	Arb-3	$15M	+3.1	$14M	+$7M
Totals		$34M		$93M	+$77M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	2 teams	—	461	386	75	19	2	4	60	178	6	9	3	194	312	285	597	91	335	39	13	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A	2 teams	—	461	352	81	17	2	6	94	127	6	9	3	230	400	341	741	111	330	28	20	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A+	TB	—	335	291	59	9	2	13	36	118	6	6	2	203	303	381	685	179	284	35	11	296	85	-6	+0	+0	+6	+9	1.0
YTD	19	A+	TB	—	335	272	71	12	2	16	55	88	6	6	2	261	396	496	893	235	324	26	16	393	159	+22	+0	+0	+6	+9	3.9
ROS	19	A+	TB	4%	223	192	38	7	1	6	26	75	3	3	1	198	303	338	641	140	284	34	12	292	82	-5	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.6
ROS	19	MLB	TB	4%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		287	30	10	281	73	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	19	A+	TB	—	345	300	60	9	2	13	37	121	6	6	2	200	300	373	674	173	280	35	11	296	84	-6	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.0
TOT	19	A+	TB	—	558	483	97	16	3	19	62	193	9	9	3	201	303	364	667	163	284	35	11	294	83	-10	+1	-0	+10	+16	1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	TB	45%	520	448	92	17	2	14	60	170	7	6	2	205	309	346	655	141	292	33	12	300	88	-7	+0	-0	+9	+15	1.7
2028	21	MLB	TB	62%	520	448	96	18	2	16	60	162	7	6	2	214	317	371	687	156	293	31	12	311	96	-2	+0	-0	+9	+15	2.2
2029	22	MLB	TB	68%	520	447	98	18	2	17	60	157	8	6	2	219	322	383	705	163	293	30	12	319	102	+1	+0	-0	+9	+15	2.6
2030	23	MLB	TB	71%	520	448	99	18	2	18	60	154	7	6	2	221	322	391	713	170	294	30	12	323	106	+3	+0	-0	+9	+15	2.8
2031	24	MLB	TB	71%	520	446	101	19	2	18	61	153	8	6	2	226	330	399	729	173	294	29	12	327	108	+5	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.0
2032	25	MLB	TB	71%	520	446	102	19	2	19	61	152	8	6	2	229	332	408	740	179	295	29	12	329	110	+6	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.0
2033	26	MLB	TB	71%	520	445	101	19	2	19	62	152	8	5	2	227	332	407	739	180	294	29	12	329	110	+6	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.1
2034	27	MLB	TB	69%	520	445	100	18	2	19	62	152	8	5	2	225	330	402	732	178	294	29	12	330	110	+6	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.1
2035	28	MLB	TB	69%	520	444	100	18	2	19	63	153	8	5	2	225	332	403	735	178	293	29	12	328	110	+6	+0	-1	+9	+15	2.9
2036	29	MLB	TB	67%	520	445	100	18	2	19	63	154	7	5	2	225	330	402	732	178	292	30	12	327	108	+5	+0	-2	+9	+15	2.8
2037	30	MLB	TB	66%	520	445	98	18	2	18	63	155	7	5	2	220	326	391	717	171	291	30	12	324	106	+3	+0	-2	+9	+15	2.6
2038	31	MLB	TB	65%	504	431	94	17	2	17	61	152	7	4	1	218	325	385	710	167	288	30	12	320	103	+2	+0	-3	+9	+14	2.3
2039	32	MLB	TB	65%	489	420	90	16	2	16	59	150	7	4	1	214	321	376	697	162	285	31	12	314	99	-1	+0	-4	+9	+14	1.9
2040	33	MLB	TB	70%	473	407	85	15	2	15	57	147	6	4	1	209	315	366	681	157	280	31	12	307	93	-4	+0	-4	+8	+13	1.5
2041	34	MLB	TB	66%	439	377	76	13	2	13	53	139	6	3	1	202	310	350	660	149	274	32	12	299	87	-7	+0	-5	+8	+12	0.9
2042	35	MLB	TB	61%	377	324	63	10	1	11	45	123	5	3	1	194	302	333	635	139	267	33	12	289	79	-9	+0	-6	+7	+11	0.3
2043	36	MLB	TB	52%	313	269	49	7	1	8	37	104	4	2	1	182	290	305	595	123	260	33	12	279	72	-10	+0	-6	+6	+9	-0.2
2044	37	MLB	TB	43%	250	216	38	5	1	6	29	85	3	1	0	176	282	292	574	116	252	34	12	268	63	-10	+0	-7	+4	+7	-0.6
2027	20	MLB	TB	45%	234	202	42	8	1	6	27	77	3	3	1	208	310	347	657	139	295	33	12	290	80	-5	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2028	21	MLB	TB	62%	320	275	61	11	2	10	37	100	5	4	1	222	325	385	710	164	296	31	12	301	88	-4	+0	-0	+6	+9	1.1
2029	22	MLB	TB	68%	356	307	67	12	2	11	41	108	5	4	1	218	320	378	698	160	296	30	12	308	94	-3	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.4
2030	23	MLB	TB	71%	370	319	72	13	2	12	43	110	5	4	1	226	327	392	719	166	297	30	12	312	97	-1	+0	-0	+7	+10	1.7
2031	24	MLB	TB	71%	369	318	73	13	2	13	43	109	5	4	1	230	331	406	736	176	298	30	12	316	100	-0	+0	-0	+7	+10	1.8
2032	25	MLB	TB	71%	369	318	73	13	2	13	43	108	5	4	1	230	331	406	736	176	298	29	12	318	101	+1	+0	-0	+7	+10	1.8
2033	26	MLB	TB	71%	369	317	72	13	2	13	44	108	5	4	1	227	331	404	734	177	298	29	12	318	102	+1	+0	-0	+7	+10	1.8
2034	27	MLB	TB	69%	361	310	71	13	2	13	43	106	5	4	1	229	332	410	742	181	297	29	12	318	102	+1	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.8
2035	28	MLB	TB	69%	358	307	70	12	2	13	43	105	5	4	1	228	332	407	740	179	297	29	12	317	101	+0	+0	-1	+6	+10	1.7
2036	29	MLB	TB	67%	348	298	67	12	2	12	42	103	5	3	1	225	330	399	730	174	296	30	12	316	100	-0	+0	-1	+6	+10	1.5
2037	30	MLB	TB	66%	342	293	65	12	1	12	41	102	5	3	1	222	327	392	720	171	294	30	12	313	98	-1	+0	-2	+6	+10	1.4
2038	31	MLB	TB	65%	328	280	61	11	1	11	40	99	5	3	1	218	326	382	708	164	291	30	12	309	95	-2	+0	-2	+6	+9	1.2
2039	32	MLB	TB	65%	317	272	58	10	1	10	38	97	4	3	1	213	318	368	686	154	288	31	12	304	91	-3	+0	-2	+6	+9	0.9
2040	33	MLB	TB	70%	332	284	59	10	1	10	40	103	5	3	1	208	316	356	672	148	283	31	12	297	86	-5	+0	-3	+6	+9	0.7
2041	34	MLB	TB	66%	289	248	50	8	1	9	35	92	4	2	1	202	310	351	661	149	277	32	12	289	79	-7	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.3
2042	35	MLB	TB	61%	231	199	39	6	1	7	27	75	3	2	1	196	301	342	643	146	270	32	12	280	72	-7	+0	-4	+4	+7	-0.0
2043	36	MLB	TB	52%	163	141	27	4	1	4	19	54	2	1	0	191	296	319	615	128	263	33	12	270	65	-7	+0	-3	+3	+5	-0.2
2044	37	MLB	TB	43%	108	94	16	2	0	3	12	37	1	1	0	170	271	287	558	117	256	34	11	259	56	-5	+0	-3	+2	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5574	4791	1044	183	26	182	659	1696	77	56	16	218	322	381	703	163	293	30	12	306	92	-49	+5	-25	+100	+158	19.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	559	121	21	3	21	77	198	9	7	2	216	321	377	699	161	291	30	12	306	92	-6	+1	-3	+12	+18	2.2
Career	—			—	9249	7929	1695	309	36	292	1102	2867	130	94	32	214	319	372	692	159	291	31	12	312	97	-29	+6	-42	+165	+262	37.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	557	120	22	3	21	77	201	9	7	2	215	320	379	699	163	292	31	12	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+12	+18	2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	22	16	4	1	1	0	5	6	0	0	1	250	429	438	866	188	364	27	23	373	143	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	18	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	439	336	77	16	1	6	89	121	6	9	2	229	399	336	735	107	329	28	20	342	120	+10	+1	—	—	+12	2.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Iannettalast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 4,253 PA	14	4,253	141	11	230	345	406	+76	-30	23.7	21.5
	/162	664	22	2	230	345	406	+11.9	-4.6	3.7	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,579	187	53	217	319	384	+82	-8	25.6	20.1
	/162	664	22	6	217	319	384	+9.7	-1.0	3.0	pk7: 15
#2Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#5Robinson Chirinoslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,427 PA	10	2,427	95	5	227	320	420	+43	-10	12.9	13.8
	/162	664	26	1	227	320	420	+11.9	-2.8	3.5	pk7: 15
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathan Flewelling (OGILVIE)	19	38→44	48→52	31→35	60	201/303/364	163	284	19	9	35%	11%	83	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	88	+0.9	191/266/284	93	290	7	5	34%	9%	52	-1.6	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	47→50	45→40	47	217/283/352	135	277	15	5	27%	8%	76	+0.1	243/301/378	135	296	16	4	23%	7%	91	+1.1	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→49	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	70	-0.3	206/250/349	143	284	18	2	33%	5%	62	-0.9	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	39	40→45	46→45	47	181/281/275	94	294	7	6	37%	11%	57	-1.2	183/259/259	76	293	5	6	36%	9%	43	-2.2	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	227/283/376	149	325	15	6	34%	7%	83	+0.6	217/273/363	146	324	14	6	35%	6%	76	+0.0	247/298/412	164	344	17	8	31%	6%	96	+1.3
●Luis Campusano 2018 · A	19	43→53	41→50	41→30	44	213/267/308	95	273	10	4	25%	6%	58	-1.2	251/303/368	117	300	12	2	20%	6%	89	+0.9	264/328/432	168	297	22	1	19%	8%	113	+1.5
✕Joe Mack 2022 · A	19	43→40	39→55	45	49	193/294/276	83	327	6	5	38%	12%	63	-0.9	197/277/301	104	294	12	2	34%	9%	61	-1.0	212/278/383	171	271	23	5	30%	7%	80	+0.3
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	35→45	42→55	45→50	44	176/254/278	102	265	9	7	35%	9%	46	-2.0	196/287/331	135	277	14	9	32%	11%	73	-0.1	224/298/396	172	291	21	8	29%	9%	92	+0.9
●Andrew Lambo 2008 · A	19	50→49	43→65	43→45	48	240/309/354	114	306	9	4	24%	8%	88	+0.9	237/281/368	131	310	13	4	27%	5%	79	+0.3	242/291/471	228	307	31	5	31%	6%	111	+1.4
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	39	43→45	42→50	48	193/294/300	106	278	11	10	32%	10%	69	-0.4	183/263/286	103	286	10	6	37%	8%	52	-1.6	153/236/254	101	237	11	2	38%	9%	32	-0.9
●Daniel Robertson 2014 · A	20	44→54	42→45	37→40	44	216/277/321	104	275	9	3	25%	7%	66	-0.6	239/305/344	105	301	8	3	22%	7%	84	+0.6	231/336/345	114	301	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.8
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→49	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	74	-0.1	230/299/349	119	326	11	11	30%	9%	82	+0.5	228/302/349	121	326	10	15	31%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Victor Heredia 2019 · A	19	47	44→50	42→30	39	232/274/353	122	292	11	4	25%	4%	72	-0.2	213/267/301	88	291	7	5	28%	6%	56	-1.3	176/240/214	38	249	3	2	28%	6%	21	-1.0
✕Randel Alcantara 2015 · A	18	40	43→45	41→45	42	200/268/307	107	273	11	4	30%	7%	59	-1.1	200/265/309	109	265	8	6	26%	6%	58	-1.2	186/252/305	119	241	8	6	25%	5%	48	-0.6
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→42	42→50	44→50	45	227/318/334	107	303	8	7	26%	7%	88	+0.9	214/310/343	129	287	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.9	219/307/369	150	281	18	13	27%	8%	90	+0.9
✕Elias Díaz 2010 · A	19	42→52	41→50	42→45	44	204/265/299	95	266	8	5	26%	7%	55	-1.4	186/235/263	77	243	5	4	25%	5%	32	-3.0	245/304/378	133	272	15	0	16%	7%	89	+0.5
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	41→43	45→55	44→40	43	204/283/326	122	290	12	5	32%	8%	71	-0.3	195/273/328	133	307	15	4	39%	8%	67	-0.5	202/290/390	188	286	26	2	37%	9%	87	+0.6
●Victor Caratini 2014 · A	20	48→58	38→50	41→40	48	220/301/312	92	316	3	3	29%	9%	74	-0.1	235/293/334	99	311	5	2	24%	7%	76	+0.0	270/329/395	125	330	11	1	20%	7%	105	+1.4
●Edgar Quero 2022 · A	19	44→54	43→50	48→40	45	197/300/311	114	330	9	6	39%	10%	75	-0.0	233/323/384	151	296	17	5	26%	10%	102	+1.9	235/323/387	152	289	18	4	24%	9%	101	+1.4
✕Agustín Ramírez 2022 · A	20	37→45	44→55	43→55	39	188/247/306	118	283	11	4	36%	7%	50	-1.8	225/286/368	143	285	16	12	26%	7%	82	+0.5	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3