Nathan Flewelling

C Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP45OGV rank#88ETA2028MLB%4%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202518A+/ATB461.230/.400/.3416977—.198/.327/.285
202619A+/INTL2 orgs548.253/.371/.441211080—.193/.280/.365
2027PROJMLE20MLBTB9.203/.301/.34100840.0
2028PROJ45% MLB21MLBTB200.211/.309/.36463920.6
2029PROJ62% MLB22MLBTB274.218/.316/.38294991.1
Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$5M2034Arb-2$8M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
ISO76
BB%75
wOBA65
wRC+65
Chase%53
Speed41
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 23, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 72%
CompsCarter Jensen (age 20) · Moisés Ballesteros (age 19) · Ryan McMahon (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†84
AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .301 / .341
PA9
HR0
K%33
BB%11
BABIP282
ISO148
MLB%4%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.01.02.00.00.61.11.31.51.51.51.41.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$56M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.3$8M+$8M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.5$9M+$8M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.5$8M+$8M
2033Arb-1$5M+1.5$8M+$5M
2034Arb-2$8M+1.4$7M+$3M
2035Arb-3$10M+1.3$6M+$1M
Totals $26M $45M +$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202518 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods — 2216 4110 560 01 250429438866 188364 2723 373 100 — — — — — —
202518 ACharleston RiverDogs — 439336 771616 891216 92 229399336735 107329 2820 342 76 — — — — — —
202619 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods — 486403 9817221 711328 84 243367452819 208303 2715 364 74 — — — — — —
202619 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 6255 18200 7140 20 327403364767 36439 2311 354 126 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202518 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 2218 4110 380 01 222333389722 167319 3614 316 100 — — — — — —
202518 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 439361 711614 641646 92 197327280607 83315 3715 280 76 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 486430 8313219 441738 84 193280365645 172256 369 278 74 — — — — — —
202518 A MLE2 teams — 461379 751724 671716 93 198327285612 87335 3715 282 77 — — — — — —
202518 A RAW2 teams — 461352 811726 941276 93 230400341741 111330 2820 343 77 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLE2 teams — 548486 9214221 501958 104 189276356632 167259 369 278 74 — — — — — —
202619 A+ RAW2 teams — 548458 11619221 781468 104 253371441812 188322 2714 362 74 — — — — — —
202518 A MLE2 teams — 461385 751724 671716 93 195327281608 86315 3715 282 77 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLE2 teams — 548485 9214221 501958 104 190276357632 167256 369 278 74 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202518 A MLE2 teams — 461385 751724 671716 93 195327281608 86315 3715 282 77 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLE2 teams — 548485 9214221 501958 104 190276357632 167256 369 278 74 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLETB 4% 596519 10419216 651897 73 202300343643 140279 3211 292 84 -12 +0 -1 +11 +13 0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202720 MLB CTXTB 4% 98 1000 130 00 203301341642 137282 3311 292 84 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLETB 45% 445387 8215214 491376 62 210309366675 156281 3111 304 92 -4 +0 -1 +8 +10 1.3
202922 MLB MLETB 62% 445386 8415215 501326 62 217315385700 168282 3011 314 99 -1 +0 -1 +8 +10 1.7
203023 MLB MLETB 68% 445387 8515216 491296 62 222319397715 175284 2911 320 103 +1 +0 -0 +8 +10 1.9
203124 MLB MLETB 70% 445388 8716216 491265 62 225321403724 178285 2811 323 105 +3 +0 -0 +8 +10 2.1
203225 MLB MLETB 70% 445388 8916217 491245 52 227322406728 179285 2811 325 106 +3 +0 -0 +8 +10 2.1
203326 MLB MLETB 71% 445388 8816217 491245 52 227322405728 179285 2811 324 106 +3 +0 -0 +8 +10 2.1
203427 MLB MLETB 69% 445388 8716216 491255 52 225321402724 177284 2811 323 105 +2 +0 -0 +8 +10 2.1
203528 MLB MLETB 69% 445388 8716216 491265 42 223319398717 174283 2811 320 103 +2 +0 -1 +8 +10 1.9
203629 MLB MLETB 67% 445388 8615216 491275 32 221316391707 170281 2911 316 100 +0 -0 -2 +8 +10 1.6
203730 MLB MLETB 66% 445388 8415115 491295 22 218313383695 165279 2911 312 97 -2 -0 -2 +8 +10 1.4
203831 MLB MLETB 65% 426373 7914114 461254 32 213308372680 159276 2911 306 93 -4 -0 -3 +8 +9 1.0
203932 MLB MLETB 65% 407356 7413113 441214 32 208301359661 152271 3011 298 88 -6 -0 -4 +7 +9 0.7
204033 MLB MLETB 65% 387339 6912112 411184 14 201294344638 142266 3011 289 82 -8 -1 -4 +7 +8 0.1
204134 MLB MLETB 60% 346304 6010110 361083 16 193285325610 132258 3110 277 74 -11 -2 -5 +6 +7 -0.4
202821 MLB CTXTB 45% 200174 37716 22612 31 211309364674 153284 3011 304 92 -2 +0 -0 +4 +4 0.6
202922 MLB CTXTB 62% 274238 51919 31813 41 218316382698 164285 3011 313 99 -0 +0 -0 +5 +6 1.1
203023 MLB CTXTB 68% 305264 5910111 34884 41 223320394713 171286 2911 319 103 +1 +0 -0 +5 +7 1.3
203124 MLB CTXTB 70% 310269 6111111 34884 41 226322400722 174288 2811 323 105 +2 +0 -0 +6 +7 1.5
203225 MLB CTXTB 70% 313271 6111111 35884 41 228323403726 175288 2811 324 106 +2 +0 -0 +6 +7 1.5
203326 MLB CTXTB 71% 314272 6111111 35884 41 228323402725 175288 2811 324 106 +2 +0 -0 +6 +7 1.5
203427 MLB CTXTB 69% 309268 6111111 34874 31 226322400722 173287 2811 322 105 +2 +0 -0 +6 +7 1.4
203528 MLB CTXTB 69% 306265 5910111 34874 31 224320395715 170286 2811 320 103 +1 +0 -1 +5 +7 1.3
203629 MLB CTXTB 67% 297259 5710110 33853 21 222317388705 166284 2911 316 100 +0 +0 -1 +5 +6 1.1
203730 MLB CTXTB 66% 293256 5610110 32853 21 219313380693 161282 2911 311 97 -1 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.9
203831 MLB CTXTB 65% 278243 52919 30823 21 214309370678 156278 2911 305 93 -2 +0 -2 +5 +6 0.7
203932 MLB CTXTB 65% 264231 48818 28793 21 209302357659 148274 3011 298 88 -4 +0 -2 +5 +6 0.4
204033 MLB CTXTB 65% 250220 44717 26762 13 202295342636 139269 3010 288 82 -5 -1 -3 +4 +5 0.1
204134 MLB CTXTB 60% 208182 37616 22652 14 194286323609 129261 3111 277 74 -6 -1 -3 +4 +5 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 39213412 74413014131 430114045 3919 218314380693 161284 2911 312 94 -12 +0 -14 +70 +85 13.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650566 12422222 711897 63 219313382695 163285 2911 312 94 -2 +0 -2 +12 +14 2.2
Career— MLE — 72356295 134624228238 798218485 7742 214311375685 161283 3011 307 94 -25 -2 -23 +111 +135 19.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650566 12122321 721968 74 214312375686 161283 3011 307 94 -3 -0 -2 +12 +14 2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 486 PAwOBA .357 → .278 (−79)K% 27.2% → 35.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.16%÷1.000×1.310——35.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.61%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0429.13%
HBP% /PA1.65%—×0.770—×1.0421.32%
Singles /BIP21.40%÷1.000×0.870×0.960×1.04218.63%
Doubles /BIP6.27%÷1.000×0.780×0.960×1.0424.90%
Triples /BIP0.74%÷1.000×0.850×0.960×1.0420.63%
Home runs /BIP7.75%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0427.11%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .357 → .278; ISO .208 → .179; BABIP .303 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 439 PAwOBA .338 → .280 (−58)K% 27.6% → 37.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.56%÷1.006×1.360——37.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.82%÷0.985×0.690—×1.04514.51%
HBP% /PA1.37%—×0.780—×1.0451.11%
Singles /BIP25.12%÷1.013×0.920×1.005×1.04523.95%
Doubles /BIP7.44%÷0.850×0.830×1.005×1.0457.63%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷1.121×0.910×1.005×1.0450.40%
Home runs /BIP2.79%÷1.159×0.800—×1.0452.01%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .338 → .280; ISO .107 → .089; BABIP .329 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 22 PAwOBA .382 → .316 (−66)K% 27.3% → 34.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.27%÷1.023×1.310——34.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA22.73%÷0.965×0.600—×1.05014.84%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.005×0.870—×1.05018.18%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷1.066×0.780—×1.0507.68%
Triples /BIP10.00%÷0.996×0.850—×1.0508.96%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.930×0.880—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .382 → .316; ISO .188 → .177; BABIP .364 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .