Edwin Arroyo — OGILVIE

Edwin ArroyoSS Louisville Bats

Age 22 S/R 5'11" / 173 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION358 act + 238 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.257 / .304 / .388

PA238

HR5

SB8

K%21

BB%5

BABIP310

ISO131

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT50

xwOBA

500.309

POWER47

Barrel%

101.3

Avg EV

1986.7

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED54

Sprint

8128.7

DEFENSE56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+1.0	$8M	+$8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$18M	+$17M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.8	$19M	+$19M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+3.0	$19M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+3.2	$19M	+$11M
2031	Arb-3	$18M	+3.1	$17M	+$6M
Totals		$38M		$100M	+$75M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	2 teams	—	151	133	19	2	0	3	10	66	5	5	1	143	230	226	455	83	246	44	7	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	2 teams	—	151	127	29	5	0	2	16	40	5	5	1	228	338	315	653	87	314	26	11	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	2 teams	—	556	505	118	21	7	16	36	177	11	25	6	234	299	398	697	164	323	32	6	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	2 teams	—	556	488	141	25	10	14	53	130	11	25	6	289	371	467	839	178	365	23	10	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	2 teams	—	554	509	104	20	10	11	33	168	6	29	7	204	261	348	609	143	278	30	6	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	2 teams	—	554	492	124	28	11	13	49	118	6	29	7	252	327	433	760	181	303	21	9	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	81	75	19	4	1	0	6	19	0	7	0	253	309	333	642	80	339	23	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	81	75	19	4	1	0	6	19	0	7	0	253	309	333	642	80	339	23	7	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	2 teams	—	591	543	149	20	4	3	27	126	11	13	7	274	322	343	664	68	346	21	5	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	2 teams	—	591	526	154	28	5	3	44	97	11	13	7	293	360	382	742	89	348	16	7	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AAA	CIN	—	358	324	89	11	6	10	16	74	8	9	1	275	325	438	763	164	324	21	4	318	101	+1	+1	+0	+4	+10	1.6
YTD	22	AAA	CIN	—	358	317	94	12	6	11	21	65	8	9	1	297	353	476	830	180	339	18	6	356	130	+12	+1	+0	+4	+10	2.8
ROS	22	AAA	CIN	100%	238	221	57	8	3	5	11	50	4	8	1	257	304	388	692	131	304	21	5	301	89	-3	+1	+1	+3	+7	0.9
ROS	22	MLB	CIN	100%	239	222	57	8	3	5	11	50	4	8	1	257	304	387	691	131	306	21	5	291	81	-5	+1	+1	+3	+7	0.7
FULL	22	AAA	CIN	—	597	546	146	19	9	15	27	124	12	17	2	267	316	418	734	150	318	21	5	307	93	-5	+3	+1	+6	+17	2.3
TOT	22	AAA	CIN	—	596	545	146	19	9	15	27	124	12	17	2	268	316	418	734	150	318	21	5	311	96	-2	+3	+1	+6	+17	2.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CIN	82%	648	602	149	20	7	13	31	134	10	22	4	248	295	369	664	121	298	21	5	298	87	-10	+3	+3	+7	+18	2.2
2028	24	MLB	CIN	82%	648	599	151	21	7	15	34	133	10	22	4	252	303	386	689	134	299	21	5	306	92	-6	+3	+3	+7	+18	2.6
2029	25	MLB	CIN	82%	648	598	152	21	7	16	35	132	10	22	4	254	306	393	699	139	299	20	5	310	96	-3	+3	+3	+7	+18	2.9
2030	26	MLB	CIN	82%	648	597	152	22	7	16	36	132	10	22	4	255	308	395	703	141	299	20	6	312	97	-2	+3	+3	+7	+18	3.0
2031	27	MLB	CIN	82%	643	591	150	21	7	16	37	132	10	21	4	254	309	394	703	140	299	21	6	312	97	-2	+3	+3	+7	+18	2.9
2032	28	MLB	CIN	82%	635	583	147	21	6	16	37	131	10	20	4	252	308	391	699	139	298	21	6	311	97	-2	+2	+2	+7	+18	2.8
2033	29	MLB	CIN	82%	623	571	143	20	6	15	37	130	10	18	3	250	307	385	693	135	298	21	6	310	95	-3	+2	+2	+7	+18	2.5
2034	30	MLB	CIN	82%	611	561	141	20	6	15	36	129	9	16	3	251	307	389	696	137	297	21	6	307	93	-5	+2	+1	+7	+17	2.2
2035	31	MLB	CIN	82%	596	547	136	19	6	14	35	128	9	14	2	249	305	382	687	133	295	21	6	303	90	-7	+2	-0	+6	+17	1.9
2036	32	MLB	CIN	82%	577	529	129	17	6	13	34	126	9	11	2	244	301	372	673	129	292	22	6	298	86	-9	+1	-1	+6	+16	1.4
2037	33	MLB	CIN	82%	547	502	120	16	5	12	32	122	8	8	1	239	295	363	658	124	289	22	6	291	81	-12	+1	-2	+6	+15	1.0
2027	23	MLB	CIN	82%	531	492	124	17	6	11	25	110	9	18	3	252	300	378	678	126	301	21	5	289	80	-12	+2	+2	+6	+15	1.4
2028	24	MLB	CIN	82%	531	490	125	18	6	12	28	109	8	18	3	255	306	390	696	135	301	21	5	297	86	-9	+2	+2	+6	+15	1.7
2029	25	MLB	CIN	82%	531	489	126	18	6	13	29	108	8	18	3	258	310	399	709	141	301	20	5	302	89	-6	+2	+2	+6	+15	2.0
2030	26	MLB	CIN	82%	531	488	125	18	5	14	30	109	8	18	3	256	310	400	709	143	301	21	6	304	91	-6	+2	+2	+6	+15	2.0
2031	27	MLB	CIN	82%	527	484	124	18	5	14	30	108	8	18	3	256	310	401	711	145	301	20	6	304	91	-5	+2	+2	+6	+15	2.0
2032	28	MLB	CIN	82%	521	478	121	17	5	13	30	108	8	16	3	253	308	391	699	138	301	21	6	303	90	-6	+2	+2	+6	+15	1.9
2033	29	MLB	CIN	82%	511	468	119	17	5	13	30	106	8	15	3	254	310	395	706	141	300	21	6	301	89	-6	+2	+1	+5	+14	1.7
2034	30	MLB	CIN	82%	501	459	115	16	5	12	29	106	8	13	2	251	306	386	692	135	299	21	6	299	87	-7	+2	+1	+5	+14	1.5
2035	31	MLB	CIN	82%	489	450	113	16	5	12	29	105	7	11	2	251	307	389	695	138	297	21	6	295	84	-9	+1	-0	+5	+14	1.2
2036	32	MLB	CIN	82%	473	435	107	15	5	11	28	103	7	9	2	246	302	379	681	133	295	22	6	290	80	-11	+1	-1	+5	+13	0.8
2037	33	MLB	CIN	82%	449	413	99	13	4	10	26	100	7	7	1	240	296	363	659	123	291	22	6	283	75	-13	+1	-1	+5	+13	0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5834	5368	1355	191	60	140	325	1222	90	169	29	252	306	389	695	136	301	21	6	297	86	-95	+22	+15	+63	+165	17.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	151	21	7	16	36	136	10	19	3	253	305	391	697	139	301	21	6	297	86	-11	+3	+2	+7	+18	1.9
Career	—			—	8995	8266	2036	293	95	199	507	2035	142	283	57	246	301	377	678	131	302	23	6	297	86	-145	+34	+18	+96	+255	26.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	147	21	7	14	37	147	10	20	4	246	301	375	676	129	302	23	6	297	86	-10	+2	+1	+7	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	86	71	15	2	0	2	10	26	4	4	1	211	341	324	665	113	295	30	12	309	95	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2021	17	INTL	RA12	—	65	56	14	3	0	0	6	14	1	1	0	250	333	304	637	54	333	22	9	288	79	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2022	18	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	519	461	137	25	10	14	44	121	10	25	6	297	371	486	857	189	373	23	8	376	146	+27	+3	—	—	+15	4.5
2022	18	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	37	27	4	0	0	0	9	9	1	0	0	148	378	148	527		222	24	24	287	78	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	19	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	20	17	6	2	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	353	421	588	1.009	235	500	30	5	417	177	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	19	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	534	475	118	26	10	13	48	112	5	28	7	248	323	427	751	179	297	21	9	330	111	+6	+3	—	—	+15	2.5
2024	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	81	75	19	4	1	0	6	19	0	7	0	253	309	333	642	80	339	23	7	291	81	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	521	464	132	23	4	3	40	88	7	12	7	284	350	371	721	86	339	17	8	322	104	+3	-0	—	—	+15	1.7
2025	21	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	70	62	22	5	1	0	4	9	4	1	0	355	429	468	896	113	415	13	6	404	167	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	11	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
	/162	664	7	18	271	314	372	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#2Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	12	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	5	19	258	295	345	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#3Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Cristian Guzmanlast yr '10 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,329 PA	10	5,329	61	116	275	311	392	+23	+24	16.8	16.7
	/162	664	8	14	275	311	392	+2.9	+3.0	2.1	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,984	135	172	250	300	381	+64	+30	18.5	16.1
	/162	664	15	19	250	300	381	+7.1	+3.4	2.0	pk7: 14
#5Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#6Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edwin Arroyo (OGILVIE)	22	47→50	43→47	55→54	45	268/316/418	150	318	15	17	21%	5%	96	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Freddy Galvis 2012 · AAA	22	49→54	38→50	49→50	41	236/270/320	83	287	5	14	20%	4%	61	-1.0	226/262/343	117	270	10	8	20%	4%	64	-0.8	251/300/394	142	300	15	8	21%	6%	91	+1.2
●Orlando Arcia 2016 · AA	21	53→56	41→55	54→55	43	253/289/364	111	300	6	19	18%	4%	80	+0.4	242/283/356	114	297	10	16	21%	5%	76	+0.1	245/305/406	162	273	21	3	19%	8%	97	+1.0
✕Ehire Adrianza 2012 · A	22	47→49	40→50	50	45	225/284/327	102	291	6	13	24%	7%	70	-0.3	216/275/306	90	281	5	13	23%	7%	60	-1.0	241/326/373	132	289	11	1	19%	10%	97	+0.5
●Luis Rengifo 2019 · AAA	22	49→55	42→55	57→55	47	235/295/353	118	286	8	25	21%	7%	81	+0.4	233/300/361	128	284	12	14	21%	8%	85	+0.7	273/324/436	163	306	19	16	17%	6%	113	+2.0
✕Alen Hanson 2014 · AA	21	46→51	44→50	56→60	43	227/276/361	134	289	9	20	24%	6%	75	-0.0	233/268/362	129	287	11	25	22%	4%	72	-0.2	252/286/391	139	300	12	30	20%	4%	83	+0.4
●Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2012 · AA	22	53→59	44→45	51→55	41	260/292/379	119	303	12	19	19%	4%	86	+0.8	248/278/327	79	298	7	11	18%	4%	66	-0.6	270/301/382	112	304	12	11	15%	4%	91	+0.7
✕Harold Garcia 2009 · A	22	47→57	42→45	55	44	226/298/339	113	281	8	14	22%	6%	80	+0.4	248/299/350	102	335	7	22	27%	4%	82	+0.5	259/308/357	98	356	7	27	28%	4%	85	+0.6
●Ke'Bryan Hayes 2019 · AA	22	50→55	42→50	52→50	48	238/300/350	112	299	8	14	22%	8%	82	+0.5	248/307/389	141	308	12	12	22%	7%	96	+1.5	257/313/393	137	315	12	16	21%	7%	97	+1.3
✕Jose Vallejo 2009 · AA	22	51→55	38→40	58→55	42	244/284/325	81	306	6	24	22%	5%	68	-0.5	215/254/285	70	290	5	14	26%	5%	45	-2.1	192/228/238	47	266	3	8	28%	5%	19	-1.6
●Tommy Edman 2019 · AAA	24	52→57	39→50	55	44	247/288/338	91	300	6	18	20%	5%	73	-0.1	263/309/400	137	309	12	20	18%	5%	99	+1.7	267/316/414	147	305	13	22	17%	5%	103	+1.6
✕Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 2011 · AA	22	54→59	39→45	51→50	48	252/308/347	95	306	4	12	19%	7%	85	+0.7	264/304/362	98	305	6	14	15%	5%	86	+0.8	271/306/365	94	306	6	14	13%	4%	84	+0.5
✕Ryan Brett 2014 · AA	22	52→58	42→45	59→60	44	249/294/358	109	301	8	27	20%	5%	82	+0.5	242/279/345	103	296	8	18	20%	4%	72	-0.2	230/262/326	96	287	8	15	22%	3%	57	-0.7
✕Mauricio Dubón 2017 · AA	23	54→58	39→50	55	45	257/298/346	89	306	5	20	18%	5%	79	+0.3	243/279/346	103	291	9	22	19%	5%	72	-0.2	259/306/396	137	295	16	11	18%	5%	93	+0.9
●Andrés Giménez 2020 · AA	21	47→57	42→50	53→55	40	229/283/342	113	293	8	24	24%	5%	73	-0.1	247/306/388	141	310	14	23	24%	5%	95	+1.4	261/326/416	155	313	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.0
✕Abiatal Avelino 2017 · AA	22	47→54	40→45	49→55	43	229/272/321	92	283	7	21	22%	5%	63	-0.9	239/275/346	107	295	9	18	22%	4%	70	-0.3	243/280/354	111	298	10	20	22%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Alexi Amarista 2011 · AAA	22	55→60	40→45	53→55	46	263/304/366	103	300	5	18	14%	5%	87	+0.8	242/279/345	103	279	6	15	15%	5%	72	-0.2	237/280/339	102	267	8	13	14%	5%	67	-0.4
●Victor Reyes 2018 · AA	23	54→58	38→50	51→55	41	258/288/341	83	318	5	14	20%	4%	74	-0.1	262/291/374	112	321	9	17	21%	4%	84	+0.6	286/321/433	147	349	13	18	21%	4%	111	+1.6
✕Darell Hernaiz 2023 · AA	21	48→57	42→45	55→50	42	234/281/335	101	294	10	21	23%	5%	71	-0.3	248/300/349	101	297	9	14	18%	6%	82	+0.5	251/308/343	93	292	7	12	16%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Cliff Pennington 2006 · A	22	47→55	38→45	52→55	49	224/287/301	77	276	6	20	20%	8%	65	-0.7	217/287/297	80	267	5	16	19%	9%	63	-0.8	248/311/355	107	296	7	24	18%	8%	86	+0.8
✕Humberto Castro 2013 · AAA	22	52	40	53→45	42	249/296/341	92	310	8	13	22%	5%	78	+0.2	228/274/305	77	279	6	8	20%	4%	59	-1.1	257/313/319	62	304	4	5	15%	4%	76	+0.0