Joey Oakie — OGILVIE

Joey Oakie P Hill City Howlers

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%23.2%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$39M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL3545

CMD2545

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2032	Arb-1	$6M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$7M	+$3M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$17M		$33M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	59	271	78	38	4	83%	3.3	20.3%	17.1%	3.1%	1.6%	5.31	4.43	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	59	271	78	38	4	83%	3.3	20.3%	17.1%	3.1%	1.6%	5.31	4.43	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	59	271	78	38	4	83%	3.3	28.8%	14.0%	14.8%	1.5%	5.31	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	15	15	49	240	60	44	6	100%	3.3	18.9%	22.6%	-3.7%	2.4%	7.30	5.67	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	15	15	49	240	60	44	6	100%	3.3	18.9%	22.6%	-3.7%	2.4%	7.30	5.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	CLE	13	13	45	219	56	42	4	100%	3.5	25.6%	19.2%	6.4%	1.8%	6.75	4.37	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	CLE	2	2	4	21	4	2	2	100%	2.0	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	13.50	7.93	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	CLE	1	1	8	32	7	5	1	100%	7.5	23.2%	16.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	57	272	67	49	7	—	—	24.8%	18.2%	6.6%	2.5%	7.03	5.62	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	128	540	127	79	15	100%	5.6	23.5%	14.6%	8.9%	2.9%	5.01	4.92	-0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	CLE	31	31	170	719	175	93	20	100%	5.5	24.4%	12.9%	11.5%	2.8%	4.74	4.60	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	CLE	32	32	175	739	185	87	20	100%	5.5	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.8%	4.52	4.38	+1.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	CLE	32	32	179	757	193	84	21	100%	5.6	25.5%	11.1%	14.4%	2.7%	4.35	4.24	+1.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	CLE	31	31	180	760	197	81	21	100%	5.8	25.9%	10.7%	15.2%	2.7%	4.23	4.15	+1.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	CLE	30	30	180	760	198	81	21	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.7%	15.5%	2.7%	4.17	4.13	+1.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	CLE	30	30	177	749	195	80	21	100%	5.9	26.1%	10.7%	15.4%	2.8%	4.17	4.16	+1.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	172	726	189	79	21	100%	5.9	26.0%	10.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.22	4.25	+1.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	164	694	178	77	21	100%	6.1	25.7%	11.1%	14.6%	3.0%	4.31	4.38	+1.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	154	652	165	74	21	100%	5.9	25.4%	11.4%	14.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.56	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	144	608	152	71	21	100%	6.0	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	3.5%	4.64	4.76	+0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	133	562	138	68	21	100%	6.1	24.5%	12.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.85	4.98	-0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	122	516	124	65	21	100%	6.1	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	4.0%	5.08	5.23	-0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	63	266	63	39	8	100%	5.7	23.5%	14.6%	8.9%	2.8%	5.01	4.92	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	124	524	128	68	15	100%	5.4	24.4%	12.9%	11.5%	2.8%	4.74	4.60	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	148	625	156	74	17	100%	5.5	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.8%	4.52	4.38	+0.9
2030	24	MLB CTX	CLE	29	29	160	676	172	75	19	100%	5.5	25.5%	11.1%	14.4%	2.7%	4.35	4.24	+1.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	165	697	180	74	19	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.7%	15.2%	2.7%	4.23	4.15	+1.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	168	709	185	76	19	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.7%	15.5%	2.7%	4.17	4.13	+1.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	168	709	185	76	20	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.7%	15.4%	2.8%	4.17	4.16	+1.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	163	688	179	75	20	100%	6.0	26.0%	10.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.22	4.25	+1.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	156	659	169	73	20	100%	6.0	25.7%	11.1%	14.6%	3.0%	4.31	4.38	+1.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	147	621	158	71	20	100%	6.1	25.4%	11.4%	14.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.56	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	137	578	144	68	20	100%	6.0	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	3.5%	4.64	4.76	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	127	536	132	65	20	100%	6.0	24.5%	12.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	116	490	118	62	19	100%	6.1	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	4.0%	5.07	5.22	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		319	319	1841	7775	1968	894	235	100%	5.8	25.3%	11.5%	13.8%	3.0%	4.46	4.08	+18.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	214	97	26	100%	5.8	25.3%	11.5%	13.8%	3.0%	4.46	4.08	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		33	30	109	511	100	101	10	91%	3.3	19.6%	19.7%	-0.1%	2.0%	6.21	5.01	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	55	200	940	185	185	18	91%	3.3	19.6%	19.7%	-0.1%	2.0%	6.21	5.01	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Oakie (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	23.2%	16.9%	2.9%	—	4.61	24.4%	11.4%	473	-0.65	—	—	—
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	87
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	81
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.86	438	81
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	81
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	80
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	79
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	79
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	79
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	78
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	78
Jeffrey Rosa R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	78
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.40	23.9%	12.8%	346	-0.65	3.90	519	78
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	78
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	78
Matthew Thompson R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP	5.03	17.6%	13.8%	3.0%	.376	5.27	18.2%	3.8%	339	+0.24	5.03	411	77
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	77
Gerelmi Maldonado R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	19	SP	4.82	20.9%	16.4%	2.5%	.292	5.40	19.7%	-3.7%	91	+0.58	3.83	225	77
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.8	155	25.2%	11.8%	1.17	4.52
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98