Joey Oakie — OGILVIE

Joey Oakie P Hill City Howlers

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%23.3%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4555

CTRL3545

CMD2545

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$10M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$13M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	18	15	59	271	78	38	4	83%	3.3	20.3%	17.1%	3.1%	1.3%	5.31	4.30	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	18	15	59	271	78	38	4	83%	3.3	28.8%	14.0%	14.8%	1.5%	5.31	3.27	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A	Hill City Howlers	13	13	45	219	56	42	4	100%	3.5	18.9%	22.6%	-3.7%	2.4%	6.75	5.67	-0.6
ROS	20	MLB	CLE	12	12	65	274	64	40	8	100%	5.4	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.96	4.96	-0.2
ROS	20	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.96	4.96	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	CLE	—	—	110	493	120	82	12	—	—	24.3%	16.7%	7.6%	2.4%	5.70	5.25	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	CLE	23	23	128	540	128	70	15	100%	5.6	23.6%	13.0%	10.6%	2.8%	4.77	4.68	+1.1
2028	22	MLB	CLE	31	31	170	719	176	84	20	100%	5.5	24.5%	11.6%	12.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.42	+2.0
2029	23	MLB	CLE	32	32	175	739	185	80	20	100%	5.5	25.1%	10.8%	14.3%	2.8%	4.36	4.24	+2.4
2030	24	MLB	CLE	32	32	179	757	194	78	21	100%	5.6	25.6%	10.3%	15.3%	2.7%	4.21	4.12	+2.7
2031	25	MLB	CLE	31	31	180	760	197	76	21	100%	5.8	26.0%	10.0%	16.0%	2.7%	4.11	4.04	+2.9
2032	26	MLB	CLE	30	30	180	760	199	76	21	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	2.7%	4.06	4.02	+2.9
2033	27	MLB	CLE	30	30	177	749	196	75	21	100%	5.9	26.2%	10.0%	16.1%	2.8%	4.06	4.06	+2.8
2034	28	MLB	CLE	29	29	172	726	189	74	21	100%	5.9	26.0%	10.2%	15.9%	2.9%	4.11	4.14	+2.5
2035	29	MLB	CLE	27	27	164	694	179	72	21	100%	6.1	25.8%	10.4%	15.4%	3.0%	4.21	4.27	+2.2
2036	30	MLB	CLE	26	26	154	652	166	70	21	100%	5.9	25.4%	10.7%	14.7%	3.2%	4.35	4.45	+1.7
2037	31	MLB	CLE	24	24	144	608	152	67	21	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.4%	4.53	4.65	+1.3
2038	32	MLB	CLE	22	22	133	562	138	64	21	100%	6.1	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	3.7%	4.74	4.88	+0.8
2039	33	MLB	CLE	20	20	122	516	124	61	20	100%	6.1	24.1%	11.9%	12.2%	4.0%	4.97	5.13	+0.4
2027	21	MLB	CLE	11	11	63	266	63	35	8	100%	5.7	23.6%	13.0%	10.6%	2.8%	4.77	4.68	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	CLE	23	23	124	524	128	61	15	100%	5.4	24.5%	11.6%	12.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.42	+1.4
2029	23	MLB	CLE	27	27	148	625	157	67	17	100%	5.5	25.1%	10.8%	14.3%	2.7%	4.36	4.24	+2.0
2030	24	MLB	CLE	29	29	160	676	173	69	18	100%	5.5	25.6%	10.3%	15.3%	2.7%	4.21	4.12	+2.4
2031	25	MLB	CLE	28	28	165	697	181	70	19	100%	5.9	26.0%	10.0%	16.0%	2.7%	4.11	4.04	+2.6
2032	26	MLB	CLE	28	28	168	709	186	71	19	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	2.7%	4.06	4.02	+2.7
2033	27	MLB	CLE	28	28	168	709	186	71	20	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.0%	16.1%	2.8%	4.06	4.06	+2.6
2034	28	MLB	CLE	27	27	163	688	179	70	20	100%	6.0	26.0%	10.2%	15.9%	2.9%	4.11	4.14	+2.4
2035	29	MLB	CLE	26	26	156	659	170	69	20	100%	6.0	25.8%	10.4%	15.4%	3.0%	4.21	4.27	+2.1
2036	30	MLB	CLE	24	24	147	621	158	66	20	100%	6.1	25.4%	10.7%	14.7%	3.2%	4.35	4.45	+1.6
2037	31	MLB	CLE	23	23	137	578	145	64	20	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.4%	4.53	4.65	+1.2
2038	32	MLB	CLE	21	21	127	536	132	61	20	100%	6.0	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	3.7%	4.73	4.87	+0.8
2039	33	MLB	CLE	19	19	116	490	118	58	19	100%	6.1	24.1%	11.9%	12.2%	4.0%	4.96	5.12	+0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			319	319	1841	7775	1974	832	233	100%	5.8	25.4%	10.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.33	3.96	+31.0
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	214	90	25	100%	5.8	25.4%	10.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.33	3.96	+3.4
Career	—			31	28	105	490	96	96	9	90%	3.4	19.7%	19.6%	0.1%	1.8%	5.93	4.91	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—			59	54	200	936	184	183	17	90%	3.4	19.7%	19.6%	0.1%	1.8%	5.93	4.91	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Oakie (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	23.3%	14.7%	2.9%	—	4.42	24.5%	12.8%	473	-0.54	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2028 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP-	4.39	26.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.297	4.58	19.5%	4.9%	274	+0.19	4.22	373	85
Brandon Young R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	84
Tanner McDougal R 2026 · 5.23 FIP	20	SP	5.23	19.7%	16.9%	3.0%	.285	5.09	22.0%	8.4%	233	-0.14	3.96	302	83
Nate Dohm R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	21.1%	11.5%	3.8%	.309	4.59	17.7%	2.6%	40	-0.27	4.59	115	82
CJ Van Eyk R 2028 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	81
Cade Smith R 2028 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.75	18.7%	6.9%	107	+1.87	3.88	192	81
James Proctor R 2029 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	22.0%	15.2%	1.6%	.277	4.35	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.33	4.02	109	80
Carlos Lagrange R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	22.1%	15.5%	1.6%	.291	4.01	25.9%	12.0%	198	-0.08	3.67	272	80
Will Watson R 2028 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	21.8%	13.4%	2.2%	.275	5.43	15.2%	2.1%	20	+1.24	4.19	141	80
Khristian Curtis R 2028 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	80
Kyle Bradish R 2028 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	20.8%	13.7%	2.9%	.309	3.76	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.91	2.15	702	80
Patrick Reilly R 2028 · 4.75 FIP	22	SP	4.75	23.2%	13.6%	3.4%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	119	80
Beck Way R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.90	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.37	3.99	433	80
Noble Meyer R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	20	SP	4.30	18.7%	14.8%	1.7%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	139	80
Jurrangelo Cijntje S 2028 · 5.16 FIP	22	SP	5.16	20.5%	12.6%	4.0%	.242	5.35	22.9%	10.5%	80	+0.19	5.16	189	80
Will Sanders R 2028 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP	5.17	19.3%	11.8%	4.0%	.297	4.04	20.9%	12.5%	167	-1.13	3.89	259	80
Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	79
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	19.3%	11.2%	3.4%	.304	5.46	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.73	4.73	226	79
Max Bain R 2029 · 5.37 FIP	23	SP	5.37	20.5%	15.2%	3.8%	.291	6.65	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.28	5.16	174	79
Jack Leiter R 2028 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	20.8%	14.5%	3.8%	.309	4.51	24.3%	12.8%	346	-0.73	3.97	519	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	155	25.2%	10.9%	1.16	4.38
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88