Joey Oakie
P
Hill City Howlers
+0.3
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.0 · 2032
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%12.0%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 18 | 15 | 59 | 271 | 78 | 38 | 4 | 20.3% | 17.1% | 1.6% | 5.31 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Hill City Howlers | 3 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 13 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CLE | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 57 | 27 | 7 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 69 | 298 | 70 | 34 | 7 | 23.6% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 4.26 | 3.87 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 61 | 27 | 8 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 67 | 26 | 8 | 24.3% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 72 | 26 | 8 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.02 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 75 | 25 | 8 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.93 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 70 | 298 | 77 | 25 | 8 | 25.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.87 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 70 | 298 | 77 | 25 | 8 | 26.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.85 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 77 | 25 | 8 | 26.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.86 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 76 | 25 | 8 | 26.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.89 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 67 | 285 | 74 | 24 | 8 | 25.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.93 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 71 | 24 | 8 | 25.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 68 | 23 | 8 | 25.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 25.2% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 61 | 22 | 8 | 24.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 18 | 69 | 319 | 68 | 53 | 4 | 21.3% | 16.8% | 1.3% | 4.93 | 4.15 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 52 | 200 | 920 | 196 | 153 | 12 | 21.3% | 16.8% | 1.3% | 4.93 | 4.15 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Oakie (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.18 | 24.2% | 14.8% | 196 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Alex Cook R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.03 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .266 | 3.34 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 53 | -0.69 | 2.94 | 119 | 88 |
| Anderson Brito R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.51 | 27.5% | 11.9% | 2.2% | .231 | 3.27 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 49 | -0.24 | 3.27 | 103 | 87 |
| Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 87 |
| David Garner R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 86 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.81 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.20 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.39 | 4.72 | 116 | 86 |
| Michael Knorr R 2029 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 86 |
| Brendan Collins R 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 86 |
| William Kempner R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 85 |
| Yimmi Brasoban R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.90 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .261 | 4.36 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 78 | +0.46 | 3.33 | 149 | 85 |
| Tyler Vogel R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.87 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .305 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 82 | -0.62 | 3.84 | 147 | 85 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2029 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.80 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.3% | .313 | 3.99 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 94 | +0.19 | 3.80 | 146 | 84 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.83 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.48 | 2.50 | 103 | 84 |
| Danny Dopico R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 84 |
| Mike Vasil R 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.64 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.65 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +1.01 | 3.64 | 429 | 84 |
| Sean Paul Liñan R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.33 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 189 | 84 |
| Jacob Rhame R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.00 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.9% | .240 | 3.62 | 24.4% | 17.8% | 182 | -0.38 | 2.77 | 251 | 83 |
| Rodolfo Sanchez R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.71 | 23.0% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .264 | 4.87 | 19.9% | 6.3% | 104 | +0.16 | 3.59 | 255 | 83 |
| Alessandro Ercolani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.89 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .267 | 5.28 | 12.7% | 2.8% | 100 | +1.39 | 3.82 | 291 | 83 |
| Jacob Wallace R 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.31 | 26.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .316 | 4.79 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 167 | +0.48 | 3.93 | 258 | 83 |
| Albert Polanco R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.99 | 24.6% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 135 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $5M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.2M |
| Totals | $12M | $31M | +$19M | ||