Joey Oakie

P Hill City Howlers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#198ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	18	15	59	5.31	3.27	28.8%	14.0%	—	K 20.3% · BB 17.1% · FIP 4.43
2026	20	MIX2 levels	15	15	49	7.30	4.92	25.0%	18.3%	—	K 18.9% · BB 22.6% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	21	MLBCLE	1	1	3	5.75	5.75	21.9%	20.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ51% MLB	22	MLBCLE	9	9	47	5.36	5.19	23.3%	16.7%	0.1
2029PROJ74% MLB	23	MLBCLE	15	15	81	5.02	4.83	24.1%	14.6%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$4M2034Ext$5M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 7.2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsJacob Watters (age 22) · J.P. Massey (age 23) · Kohl Franklin (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.75

FIP5.75

K%21.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$7M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$10M		$24M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	59	271	78	38	4	83%	3.3	20.3%	17.1%	3.1%	1.6%	5.31	4.43	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	59	271	78	38	4	83%	3.3	20.3%	17.1%	3.1%	1.6%	5.31	4.43	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	59	271	78	38	4	83%	3.3	28.8%	14.0%	14.8%	1.5%	5.31	3.27	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	49	240	60	44	6	100%	3.3	18.9%	22.6%	-3.7%	2.4%	7.30	5.67	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	49	240	60	44	6	100%	3.3	18.9%	22.6%	-3.7%	2.4%	7.30	5.67	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	49	240	60	44	6	100%	3.3	25.0%	18.3%	6.7%	2.5%	7.30	4.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CLE	1	1	3	13	3	3	0	100%	3.0	21.9%	20.0%	1.9%	2.9%	5.75	5.75	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	92	391	91	65	11	100%	5.4	23.3%	16.7%	6.6%	2.8%	5.36	5.19	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	110	466	112	68	13	100%	5.5	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	2.8%	5.02	4.83	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	117	494	121	65	14	100%	5.6	24.6%	13.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.76	4.60	+1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	116	492	123	60	14	100%	5.8	24.9%	12.3%	12.6%	2.8%	4.58	4.46	+1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	116	492	124	60	14	100%	6.1	25.1%	12.2%	12.9%	2.8%	4.49	4.43	+1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	114	480	121	59	14	100%	6.0	25.1%	12.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.47	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	108	458	114	57	13	100%	6.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.56	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	101	427	106	54	13	100%	5.9	24.7%	12.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.69	+0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	92	389	95	50	13	100%	6.1	24.4%	13.0%	11.4%	3.3%	4.77	4.86	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	83	350	84	47	12	100%	5.9	24.0%	13.3%	10.7%	3.5%	4.95	5.07	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	74	313	74	43	12	100%	6.2	23.5%	13.7%	9.8%	3.8%	5.15	5.29	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	47	198	46	33	6	100%	5.2	23.3%	16.7%	6.6%	2.8%	5.36	5.19	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	81	342	82	50	10	100%	5.4	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	2.8%	5.02	4.83	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	98	414	102	54	12	100%	5.4	24.6%	13.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.76	4.60	+0.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	103	435	108	53	12	100%	5.7	24.9%	12.3%	12.6%	2.8%	4.58	4.46	+1.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	107	452	113	55	13	100%	5.9	25.1%	12.2%	12.9%	2.8%	4.49	4.43	+1.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	106	448	112	55	13	100%	5.9	25.1%	12.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.47	+1.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	102	431	108	54	13	100%	6.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.56	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	96	405	100	51	12	100%	6.0	24.7%	12.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.69	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	87	367	90	48	12	100%	6.2	24.4%	13.0%	11.4%	3.3%	4.77	4.86	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	79	334	80	44	12	100%	6.1	24.0%	13.3%	10.7%	3.5%	4.95	5.07	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	70	296	70	41	11	100%	5.8	23.5%	13.7%	9.8%	3.7%	5.14	5.28	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	167	976	4121	1012	539	124	100%	5.8	24.5%	13.1%	11.5%	3.0%	4.73	4.33	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	207	110	25	100%	5.8	24.5%	13.1%	11.5%	3.0%	4.73	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		33	30	109	511	100	101	10	91%	3.3	19.6%	19.7%	-0.1%	2.0%	6.21	5.01	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	55	200	940	185	185	18	91%	3.3	19.6%	19.7%	-0.1%	2.0%	6.21	5.01	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHill City Howlers · 45 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.67 (+1.30)K% 25.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.57%	—	×0.740	18.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.18%	—	×1.180	22.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 4 IPFIP 7.93 → 9.78 (+1.86)K% 19.0% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.770	14.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.150	10.95%
HR / BF /BF	9.52%	÷1.000	×1.250	11.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.93 → 9.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Guardians · 35 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.98 (+1.18)K% 27.6% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.65%	—	×0.680	18.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.53%	—	×1.250	16.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.59%	÷1.388	×1.400	0.59%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 178).

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 24 IPFIP 4.02 → 5.19 (+1.17)K% 30.7% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.69%	—	×0.740	22.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.85%	—	×1.180	17.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷1.184	×1.300	3.26%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Oakie (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.85	24.0%	9.4%	320	-0.90	—	—	—
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	85
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	82
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	82
Noble Meyer R 2024 · 5.82 FIP	19	SP	5.82	20.0%	20.0%	3.4%	.198	4.31	18.7%	3.9%	65	-1.51	4.31	139	81
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Francisco Morales R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	21	SP	4.70	22.8%	16.9%	2.5%	.311	4.42	25.3%	5.6%	97	-0.28	3.88	318	81
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	80
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	80
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	79
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.62	27.9%	16.8%	83	-1.26	3.62	167	79
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	79
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	78
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	78
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	77
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.39	24.2%	13.0%	346	-0.66	3.90	519	77
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	77
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	77
Zack Bird R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	18.1%	15.6%	1.9%	.281	5.37	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.78	4.59	149	76
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	101	24.3%	13.7%	1.16	4.83
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45