Francisco Morales

P Reno Aces

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX3 levels	48	0	56	4.98	3.69	29.2%	20.4%	0.6	K 25.2% · BB 21.0% · FIP 3.88
2023	23	MIX2 levels	24	0	27	6.59	5.04	29.9%	20.1%	—	K 24.8% · BB 18.7% · FIP 5.26
2024	24	MIX3 levels	27	0	30	9.20	4.62	29.0%	18.1%	—	K 26.1% · BB 17.6% · FIP 4.71
2025	25	No MLB games played
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBARI	1	0	1	4.52	4.52	24.3%	11.4%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBARI	8	0	8	4.55	4.58	24.1%	11.3%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJake Stinnett (age 27) · Grant Black (age 27) · Cristofer Ogando (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%24.3%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	10	9	41	180	44	20	1	90%	4.1	16.6%	13.9%	2.7%	0.8%	3.05	3.88	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	10	9	41	180	44	20	1	90%	4.1	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	0.6%	3.05	2.74	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	27	15	97	417	129	46	8	56%	3.6	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	3.1%	3.82	4.51	—
2019	19	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	27	15	97	417	129	46	8	56%	3.6	30.9%	11.0%	19.9%	1.9%	3.82	2.93	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	92	432	117	67	11	92%	3.8	22.8%	16.9%	5.9%	2.5%	6.28	4.70	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	92	432	117	67	11	92%	3.8	27.1%	15.5%	11.6%	2.5%	6.28	4.30	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	56	250	73	51	2	0%	1.2	25.2%	21.0%	4.2%	0.5%	4.98	3.88	+0.4
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	56	250	73	51	2	0%	1.2	29.2%	20.4%	8.8%	0.8%	4.98	3.69	+0.6
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	27	134	40	27	4	0%	1.1	24.8%	18.7%	6.0%	3.4%	6.59	5.26	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	27	134	40	27	4	0%	1.1	29.9%	20.1%	9.7%	3.0%	6.59	5.04	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	30	155	45	28	4	0%	1.1	26.1%	17.6%	8.5%	2.9%	9.20	4.71	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	30	155	45	28	4	0%	1.1	26.1%	17.6%	8.5%	2.9%	9.20	4.71	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	30	155	45	28	4	0%	1.1	29.0%	18.1%	11.0%	2.6%	9.20	4.62	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	5	21	3	6	1	0%	1.7	14.3%	28.6%	-14.3%	4.8%	7.20	8.10	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	17	0	18	76	18	9	2	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.3%	12.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	8	0	8	34	8	4	1	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.3%	12.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	13	53	11	10	2	0%	1.3	20.2%	18.2%	2.0%	3.8%	5.60	5.75	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		163	0	200	843	174	159	32	0%	1.2	20.2%	18.2%	2.0%	3.8%	5.60	5.75	-2.8
Career	—	MLE		160	46	343	1568	361	257	35	29%	2.1	23.0%	16.4%	6.6%	2.3%	5.27	4.47	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	27	200	913	210	150	21	29%	2.1	23.0%	16.4%	6.6%	2.3%	5.27	4.47	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAReno Aces · 21 IPFIP 4.63 → 4.71 (+0.08)K% 30.4% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.39%	—	×0.860	26.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.61%	—	×0.900	17.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.124	×1.100	2.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 4.63 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 6 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.00 (+0.50)K% 22.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.810	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×1.100	15.28%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.229	×1.200	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 25 IPFIP 5.06 → 5.26 (+0.20)K% 28.8% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.80%	—	×0.860	24.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.80%	—	×0.900	18.72%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷1.028	×1.100	3.43%

Result: FIP 5.06 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 30 IPFIP 1.03 → 1.96 (+0.93)K% 46.6% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	46.55%	—	×0.810	37.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.66%	—	×1.100	16.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.051	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.03 → 1.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 21 IPFIP 5.53 → 5.86 (+0.33)K% 14.2% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.16%	—	×0.880	12.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.78%	—	×1.050	26.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.039	×1.100	0.94%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 5.53 → 5.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAReading Fightin Phils · 83 IPFIP 4.22 → 4.70 (+0.48)K% 28.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.810	22.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.100	16.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.344	×1.200	2.52%

Result: FIP 4.22 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 9 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.08 (+0.27)K% 16.7% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.880	14.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.050	17.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.957	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALakewood BlueClaws · 97 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.51 (+1.57)K% 30.9% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.94%	—	×0.740	22.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.03%	—	×1.180	13.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.809	×1.300	3.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 62).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francisco Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	24.3%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.58	24.1%	12.7%	18	+0.06	—	—	—
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	73
Cristofer Ogando R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	26.8%	10.9%	4.8%	.281	4.90	20.6%	9.0%	53	+0.07	3.23	179	72
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	72
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	71
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	71
Anthony Varvaro R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	27.6%	10.5%	2.8%	.311	3.30	17.7%	11.0%	139	-0.36	3.02	208	71
John Ely R 2011 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	23.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	113	71
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	71
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	71
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	71
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	71
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	71
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	71
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	70
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	70
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	70
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	70
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	70
Marco Estrada R 2010 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	22.4%	10.3%	4.9%	.306	3.54	24.0%	18.1%	359	-1.68	3.28	1,244	70