Braxton Garrett
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 202 lbs
AAA
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.6 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94104vR 113
ERA3.99
FIP3.99
K%21.0%
BB%4.3%
K-BB%16.7%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.7
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p4321.1%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
FB+2.0 (47%)
CT+1.1 (9%)
SI (33%)
CU (4%)
SL (27%)
CH-4.6 (12%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 4 | 4 | 15 | 65 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.93 | 5.41 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 4 | 4 | 15 | 65 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 4.6% | 2.93 | 4.73 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 107 | 451 | 119 | 40 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 3.54 | 5.94 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 107 | 451 | 119 | 40 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.4% | 8.9% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 3.58 | — |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 2 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.5% | 14.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 5.87 | 7.82 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 2 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.5% | 14.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 5.87 | 8.06 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 120 | 516 | 118 | 52 | 13 | 96% | 4.6 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 4.51 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 120 | 516 | 118 | 52 | 13 | 96% | 4.6 | 22.9% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.21 | 3.84 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 125 | 528 | 124 | 34 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.5% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 2.5% | 3.53 | 3.35 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 125 | 528 | 124 | 34 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 6.4% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.53 | 3.39 | +2.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 30 | 160 | 659 | 156 | 29 | 20 | 97% | 5.2 | 23.7% | 4.4% | 19.3% | 3.2% | 3.66 | 3.42 | +3.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 30 | 160 | 659 | 156 | 29 | 20 | 97% | 5.2 | 23.7% | 4.4% | 19.3% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.32 | +3.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 15 | 72 | 294 | 78 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.6% | 4.3% | 17.3% | 3.5% | 3.77 | 3.73 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 15 | 72 | 294 | 78 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.5% | 4.8% | 21.8% | 2.7% | 3.77 | 2.96 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 15 | 15 | 74 | 299 | 80 | 34 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | 2.30 | 3.43 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 31 | 132 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.0% | 4.3% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 3.99 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.0% | 4.3% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 106 | 431 | 108 | 40 | 9 | — | — | 25.0% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 2.1% | 2.80 | 3.60 | +2.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 36 | 150 | 108 | 40 | 9 | — | — | 71.7% | 26.4% | 45.3% | 6.0% | 8.27 | 3.71 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 50 | 213 | 43 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.1% | 6.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 39 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 44 | 187 | 35 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 41 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 6.3% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 33 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 94 | 497 | 2117 | 464 | 132 | 63 | 98% | 5.2 | 21.9% | 6.3% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 3.67 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 38 | 200 | 852 | 187 | 53 | 25 | 98% | 5.2 | 21.9% | 6.3% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 3.67 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 139 | 137 | 680 | 2846 | 632 | 215 | 101 | 99% | 4.9 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 3.6% | 3.59 | 4.14 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 40 | 200 | 837 | 186 | 63 | 30 | 99% | 4.9 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 3.6% | 3.59 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braxton Garrett (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 21.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.52 | 19.5% | 12.9% | 142 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 70 |
| Sean Manaea L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.66 | 20.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | .309 | 3.94 | 24.8% | 18.0% | 455 | +0.28 | 3.15 | 1,435 | 69 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.87 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.62 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 686 | 64 |
| Hyun Jin Ryu L 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.94 | 15.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% | .241 | 3.49 | 23.2% | 18.4% | 392 | -0.45 | 2.87 | 725 | 64 |
| John Lamb L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.76 | 22.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 390 | 61 |
| Brent Suter L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 19.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | .275 | 3.29 | 24.1% | 18.9% | 123 | -1.07 | 2.23 | 915 | 59 |
| Adam Wilk L 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.13 | 18.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | .296 | 4.85 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 223 | +1.72 | 3.13 | 455 | 59 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.72 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 372 | 57 |
| Ryan Yarbrough L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.35 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.19 | 18.2% | 13.4% | 367 | +0.84 | 3.08 | 1,304 | 56 |
| Brandon Walter L 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.24 | 24.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | .234 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 391 | 54 |
| Marco Gonzales L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.14 | 23.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | .258 | 4.98 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 376 | +1.84 | 3.14 | 1,145 | 54 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 53 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.52 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 185 | 52 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 52 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2024 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 242 | 51 |
| Roy Merritt L 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 51 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 50 |
| Andrew Heaney L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.34 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | .302 | 3.97 | 28.8% | 22.0% | 269 | -0.37 | 3.23 | 1,197 | 50 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 50 |
| Tommy Henry L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.78 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 3.8% | .399 | 5.91 | 11.5% | -2.7% | 42 | +1.13 | 4.33 | 629 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 44 | 19.8% | 6.1% | 1.29 | 4.33 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |