Braxton Garrett

P Iowa Cubs

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 202 lbs AAA Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MLBMIA	31	30	160	3.66	3.32	23.7%	4.4%	4.1
2024	26	MIX4 levels	15	15	72	3.77	2.96	26.5%	4.8%	2.2	K 21.4% · BB 3.9% · FIP 3.63
2026	28	MIX2 levels	26	24	118	3.59	3.75	24.7%	11.2%	2.3	K 22.3% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.98
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	26	26	154	4.28	4.38	21.3%	8.2%	1.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBCHC	20	20	118	4.40	4.52	20.6%	8.5%	1.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBCHC	17	17	100	4.61	4.75	19.8%	8.8%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.029First FA2029

2027Arb-2$9M2028Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%43

xwOBA vs37

FB Velo10

CompsKwang Hyun Kim (age 32) · Brandon Mann (age 32) · John Bale (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.28

FIP4.38

K%21.3%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.7

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$9M	+1.8	$14M	+$6M
2028	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$8M	+$0.1M
Totals		$18M		$23M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	19	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	4	4	15	65	16	6	3	100%	3.8	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	5.1%	2.93	5.76	—
2017	19	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	4	4	15	65	16	6	3	100%	3.8	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	4.6%	2.93	4.73	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	107	451	119	40	13	100%	5.1	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	4.6%	3.54	5.11	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	107	451	119	40	13	100%	5.1	26.4%	8.9%	17.5%	2.9%	3.54	3.58	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	2	2	8	34	8	5	3	100%	3.8	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	8.8%	5.87	7.82	-0.2
2020	22	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	2	2	8	34	8	5	3	100%	3.8	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	8.8%	5.87	8.06	-0.2
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	120	516	118	52	13	96%	4.6	20.9%	10.4%	10.5%	3.0%	4.21	4.31	+1.5
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	120	516	118	52	13	96%	4.6	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.5%	4.21	3.84	+2.2
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	125	528	124	34	14	100%	5.0	22.5%	6.3%	16.2%	2.5%	3.53	3.36	+3.1
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	125	528	124	34	14	100%	5.0	23.5%	6.4%	17.0%	2.7%	3.53	3.39	+3.1
2023	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	30	160	659	156	29	20	97%	5.2	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	3.2%	3.66	3.41	+3.9
2023	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	31	30	160	659	156	29	20	97%	5.2	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	3.0%	3.66	3.32	+4.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	72	294	78	14	8	100%	4.8	21.4%	3.9%	17.5%	3.4%	3.77	3.63	+1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	72	294	78	14	8	100%	4.8	21.4%	3.9%	17.5%	3.4%	3.77	3.63	+1.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	15	72	294	78	14	8	100%	4.8	26.5%	4.8%	21.8%	2.7%	3.77	2.96	+2.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	118	493	122	55	12	92%	4.5	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	3.0%	3.59	3.98	+2.0
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	118	493	122	55	12	92%	4.5	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	3.0%	3.59	3.98	+2.0
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	118	493	122	55	12	92%	4.5	24.7%	11.2%	13.6%	2.4%	3.59	3.75	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			68	65	336	1435	327	92	40	96%	4.9	22.8%	6.4%	16.4%	2.8%	4.13	3.52	+7.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	26	26	154	650	138	53	20	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.38	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	21	21	124	523	108	44	17	100%	5.9	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	3.2%	4.47	4.59	+1.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	105	444	88	39	15	100%	5.8	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.5%	4.68	4.82	+0.7
2030	32	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	90	381	73	35	14	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.2%	9.8%	3.7%	4.92	5.08	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	20	20	118	498	103	42	16	100%	5.9	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.40	4.52	+1.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	CHC	17	17	100	422	84	37	14	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.3%	4.61	4.75	+0.7
2030	32	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	86	363	69	33	13	100%	6.1	19.0%	9.2%	9.8%	3.6%	4.84	5.00	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	116	639	2716	582	205	82	97%	5.4	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	3.91	+11.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	850	182	64	26	97%	5.4	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	3.91	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		150	146	723	3040	669	227	101	97%	4.8	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	3.3%	3.72	4.02	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	841	185	63	28	97%	4.8	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	3.3%	3.72	4.02	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 108 IPFIP 3.65 → 3.98 (+0.33)K% 25.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.90%	—	×0.860	22.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.91%	—	×0.900	8.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 26 IPFIP 3.43 → 3.95 (+0.52)K% 25.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.860	21.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.86%	—	×0.900	6.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.925	×1.100	3.50%

Result: FIP 3.43 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 34 IPFIP 3.34 → 3.67 (+0.33)K% 20.6% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.57%	—	×0.880	18.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.050	6.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.032	×1.100	2.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 86 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.41 (+0.67)K% 24.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.09%	—	×0.880	21.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.96%	—	×1.050	9.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷0.886	×1.100	3.48%

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 105 IPFIP 3.52 → 5.11 (+1.59)K% 26.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.94%	—	×0.770	20.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.45%	—	×1.150	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷0.803	×1.250	4.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 61).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 15 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.76 (+1.04)K% 24.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.62%	—	×0.740	18.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×1.180	10.89%
HR / BF /BF	4.62%	÷1.168	×1.300	5.14%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braxton Garrett (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.80	19.9%	11.1%	319	+0.42	—	—	—
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	73
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	70
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	70
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	66
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	65
Eric Stults L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP	3.95	14.8%	10.8%	1.4%	.294	4.00	13.3%	6.9%	111	+0.05	3.50	773	63
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	62
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	62
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	62
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	60
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	58
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	58
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	57
Eric Surkamp L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	16.4%	9.3%	4.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	233	57
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	57
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	57
Yusei Kikuchi L 2020 · 3.23 FIP	29	SP	3.23	24.2%	10.3%	1.6%	.306	4.42	25.7%	16.5%	425	+1.19	3.23	1,056	56
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	55
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	55
Alejandro Astorga L 2016 · 3.72 FIP	29	SP	3.72	15.0%	9.1%	1.4%	.290	4.01	14.4%	6.2%	116	+0.29	3.72	311	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	101	21.4%	7.7%	1.20	4.37
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Ray Washburn ('61-'70, 12 WAR*)	6.0	121	17.6%*	7.5%*	1.17*	4.17*
Tim Leary ('81-'94, 9 WAR*)	7.5	136	18.1%*	8.1%*	1.18*	4.72*
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*