Braxton Garrett — OGILVIE

Braxton Garrett P Iowa Cubs

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 202 lbs AAA Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.7 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION108 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA3.98

FIP3.97

K%20.8%

BB%4.1%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7575

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.7

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

FB+2.0 (47%)

CT+1.1 (9%)

SI (33%)

CU (4%)

SL (27%)

CH-4.6 (12%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2020

Service 3.977 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.1M		$2M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	19	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	4	4	15	65	16	6	3	100%	3.8	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	5.1%	2.93	5.76	—
2017	19	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	4	4	15	65	16	6	3	100%	3.8	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	4.6%	2.93	4.73	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	107	451	119	40	13	100%	5.1	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	4.6%	3.54	5.11	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	107	451	119	40	13	100%	5.1	26.4%	8.9%	17.5%	2.9%	3.54	3.58	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	2	2	8	34	8	5	3	100%	3.8	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	8.8%	5.87	7.82	-0.2
2020	22	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	2	2	8	34	8	5	3	100%	3.8	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	8.8%	5.87	8.06	-0.3
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	120	516	118	52	13	96%	4.6	20.9%	10.4%	10.5%	3.0%	4.21	4.31	+0.8
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	120	516	118	52	13	96%	4.6	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.5%	4.21	3.84	+1.5
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	125	528	124	34	14	100%	5.0	22.5%	6.3%	16.2%	2.5%	3.53	3.36	+2.4
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	125	528	124	34	14	100%	5.0	23.5%	6.4%	17.0%	2.7%	3.53	3.39	+2.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	30	160	659	156	29	20	97%	5.2	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	3.2%	3.66	3.41	+2.9
2023	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	30	160	659	156	29	20	97%	5.2	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	3.2%	3.66	3.41	+2.9
2023	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	31	30	160	659	156	29	20	97%	5.2	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	3.0%	3.66	3.32	+3.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	72	294	78	14	8	100%	4.8	21.1%	3.9%	17.2%	3.4%	3.77	3.65	+1.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	72	294	78	14	8	100%	4.8	21.1%	3.9%	17.2%	3.4%	3.77	3.65	+1.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	15	72	294	78	14	8	100%	4.8	26.5%	4.8%	21.8%	2.7%	3.77	2.96	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			67	65	331	1414	325	89	40	97%	4.9	23.0%	6.3%	16.7%	2.8%	4.16	3.51	+5.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	24	23	108	452	114	51	12	96%	4.5	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	3.1%	3.76	4.16	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	24	23	108	452	114	51	12	96%	4.5	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	3.1%	3.76	4.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	MIA	22	21	103	424	109	43	12	95%	4.7	25.7%	10.1%	15.6%	2.8%	3.31	3.77	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	MIA	2	2	4	28	5	8	0	100%	2.1	17.9%	28.6%	-10.7%	0.0%	14.54	5.21	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	MIA	2	2	4	28	5	8	0	100%	2.1	17.9%	28.6%	-10.7%	0.0%	14.54	5.21	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	4	19	4	1	1	100%	4.5	20.8%	4.1%	16.7%	3.1%	3.98	3.97	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	MIA	1	1	4	17	4	1	1	100%	4.0	20.8%	4.1%	16.7%	3.0%	3.89	3.88	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	112	471	118	52	13	—	—	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	2.7%	3.77	4.16	+1.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	9	37	118	52	13	—	—	317.7%	139.5%	178.2%	33.9%	48.05	12.52	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	50	213	43	13	7	100%	6.3	20.0%	6.2%	13.8%	3.1%	4.23	4.29	+0.4
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	48	201	39	13	7	100%	5.9	19.3%	6.5%	12.8%	3.3%	4.39	4.50	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	44	187	35	13	7	100%	6.3	18.5%	6.8%	11.7%	3.6%	4.59	4.73	+0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	48	203	40	13	6	100%	6.0	20.0%	6.2%	13.8%	3.0%	4.14	4.20	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	45	190	37	12	6	100%	5.6	19.3%	6.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.30	4.41	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	42	177	33	12	6	100%	6.0	18.5%	6.8%	11.7%	3.4%	4.49	4.63	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	88	470	2004	439	127	59	98%	5.2	21.9%	6.3%	15.6%	2.9%	4.20	3.66	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	852	187	54	25	98%	5.2	21.9%	6.3%	15.6%	2.9%	4.20	3.66	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		148	145	713	2999	654	225	101	98%	4.8	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.4%	3.75	4.05	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	841	183	63	28	98%	4.8	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.4%	3.75	4.05	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braxton Garrett (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.97	20.8%	4.1%	3.1%	—	4.50	19.3%	12.8%	142	+0.53	—	—	—
Sean Manaea L 2020 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP	3.75	20.3%	3.6%	3.5%	.309	3.89	24.8%	18.0%	455	+0.14	3.28	1,494	72
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	68
Brent Suter L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	28	SP	4.15	19.8%	4.0%	4.0%	.275	3.15	24.1%	18.9%	123	-1.00	2.15	949	67
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2016 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP	3.95	15.2%	1.6%	3.5%	.241	3.33	23.2%	18.4%	392	-0.62	2.79	725	64
Derek Holland L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	16.7%	6.1%	4.3%	.270	4.63	18.8%	9.6%	414	-0.20	3.75	686	63
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	62
Ryan Yarbrough L 2020 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP-	3.31	18.8%	4.7%	2.2%	.282	4.10	18.1%	13.3%	367	+0.79	3.06	1,324	60
Adam Wilk L 2016 · 3.29 FIP	28	SP	3.29	18.7%	3.6%	2.4%	.296	4.97	13.8%	6.0%	223	+1.68	3.29	455	60
Andrew Heaney L 2019 · 4.19 FIP	28	SP	4.19	28.9%	7.1%	4.8%	.302	3.89	28.8%	22.0%	269	-0.30	3.19	1,197	56
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	54
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	54
Dillon Peters L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	28	SP	4.86	22.8%	8.7%	4.7%	.286	4.87	15.8%	5.5%	39	+0.01	2.56	598	53
Marco Gonzales L 2020 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP	3.09	23.1%	2.5%	3.0%	.258	4.92	15.6%	8.8%	376	+1.83	3.09	1,108	53
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	52
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	52
Jaime García L 2015 · 2.93 FIP	29	SP	2.93	19.0%	5.9%	1.3%	.265	4.32	19.7%	11.0%	411	+1.39	2.93	540	52
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	51
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	182	51
Joey Lucchesi L 2021 · 3.18 FIP	28	SP-	3.18	26.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.297	4.67	15.9%	6.1%	243	+1.49	3.18	817	51
Kyle Lobstein L 2018 · 3.33 FIP	28	SP	3.33	17.6%	7.8%	1.3%	.300	3.78	19.7%	9.5%	111	+0.45	3.33	379	51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	19.7%	5.9%	1.27	4.29
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38