Brady Ebel — OGILVIE

Brady EbelSS Wilson Warbirds

Age 19 L/R 6'3" / 195 lbs A HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION374 act + 249 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .319 / .322

PA249

HR4

SB11

K%27

BB%12

BABIP291

ISO107

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.0	$18M	+$17M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.2	$18M	+$17M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.2	$16M	+$16M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+3.2	$15M	+$12M
2034	Arb-2	$11M	+3.1	$14M	+$9M
2035	Arb-3	$15M	+3.0	$12M	+$6M
Totals		$35M		$92M	+$77M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	66	60	14	1	0	0	4	23	2	0	1	233	303	250	553	17	378	35	6	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	66	58	14	1	0	0	6	17	2	0	1	241	333	259	592	17	341	26	9	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	MIL	—	374	314	64	14	2	5	48	112	8	26	3	204	324	309	633	105	294	30	13	290	80	-8	+4	+0	+4	+11	1.0
YTD	19	A	MIL	—	374	286	70	17	2	6	76	79	8	26	3	245	416	381	797	136	312	21	20	367	139	+16	+4	+0	+4	+11	3.6
ROS	19	A	MIL	0%	249	214	46	9	1	4	29	67	4	11	2	215	319	322	641	107	293	27	12	299	87	-4	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.8
ROS	19	MLB	MIL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		290	—	—	284	75	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	A	MIL	—	374	315	64	14	2	5	48	112	8	26	3	203	324	308	632	105	292	30	13	290	80	-8	+4	+0	+4	+11	1.0
TOT	19	A	MIL	—	623	528	110	23	3	9	77	179	12	37	5	208	322	314	637	106	292	29	12	294	83	-12	+5	-0	+7	+18	1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	MIL	43%	581	499	110	22	3	10	67	155	10	14	2	220	325	337	661	116	296	27	12	304	91	-6	+2	-0	+6	+16	1.9
2028	21	MLB	MIL	61%	609	524	120	24	3	13	70	158	10	13	2	229	331	361	692	132	297	26	11	313	97	-2	+2	-0	+7	+17	2.4
2029	22	MLB	MIL	68%	627	540	126	25	3	15	71	160	11	12	2	233	334	374	708	141	298	26	11	318	102	+1	+2	-0	+7	+18	2.8
2030	23	MLB	MIL	71%	638	549	128	25	3	16	73	160	11	11	2	233	335	377	712	144	298	25	11	322	105	+3	+1	-0	+7	+18	3.0
2031	24	MLB	MIL	71%	637	548	128	25	3	16	73	159	11	11	2	234	335	378	713	144	299	25	11	325	107	+5	+1	-0	+7	+18	3.2
2032	25	MLB	MIL	71%	629	541	128	25	3	17	72	157	11	11	2	237	338	388	726	152	299	25	11	326	108	+6	+1	-0	+7	+18	3.2
2033	26	MLB	MIL	71%	619	532	125	24	3	16	71	154	11	10	2	235	337	382	719	147	299	25	11	327	109	+6	+1	-0	+7	+18	3.2
2034	27	MLB	MIL	69%	609	523	123	24	3	16	71	152	10	10	2	235	338	384	722	149	299	25	12	327	109	+6	+1	-0	+7	+17	3.1
2035	28	MLB	MIL	69%	598	513	121	23	3	16	70	150	10	10	1	236	339	386	725	150	299	25	12	326	108	+5	+2	-1	+6	+17	3.0
2036	29	MLB	MIL	67%	587	503	118	23	3	15	69	148	10	9	1	235	338	382	720	147	298	25	12	325	107	+4	+1	-2	+6	+17	2.8
2037	30	MLB	MIL	66%	576	493	115	22	3	15	68	147	10	9	1	233	338	381	719	148	297	26	12	322	105	+3	+1	-2	+6	+16	2.5
2038	31	MLB	MIL	65%	564	483	110	21	2	14	67	146	9	8	1	228	333	366	699	139	295	26	12	318	102	+1	+1	-3	+6	+16	2.2
2039	32	MLB	MIL	65%	553	474	106	20	2	13	65	145	9	7	1	224	328	357	685	133	292	26	12	313	98	-1	+1	-4	+6	+16	1.8
2040	33	MLB	MIL	70%	491	422	92	17	2	11	58	131	8	6	1	218	324	346	670	128	288	27	12	306	93	-4	+1	-4	+5	+14	1.2
2041	34	MLB	MIL	66%	444	382	80	14	2	9	52	122	7	5	1	209	315	327	642	118	282	27	12	298	86	-7	+1	-5	+5	+13	0.6
2042	35	MLB	MIL	61%	389	335	70	12	2	8	45	110	6	5	1	209	313	328	642	119	276	28	12	289	79	-9	+1	-6	+4	+11	0.1
2043	36	MLB	MIL	52%	329	283	56	9	1	6	38	95	5	3	1	198	304	300	604	102	270	29	12	279	71	-11	+0	-6	+4	+9	-0.4
2027	20	MLB	MIL	43%	251	216	46	9	1	4	29	67	4	6	1	213	317	319	637	106	294	27	12	290	80	-6	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.5
2028	21	MLB	MIL	61%	371	320	72	14	2	8	42	96	6	8	1	225	326	356	682	131	294	26	11	298	86	-6	+1	-0	+4	+11	1.0
2029	22	MLB	MIL	68%	427	368	84	16	2	10	49	109	7	8	1	228	330	364	694	136	295	26	11	304	90	-5	+1	-0	+5	+12	1.3
2030	23	MLB	MIL	71%	454	391	91	18	2	11	52	114	8	8	1	233	335	373	708	141	296	25	11	307	93	-3	+1	-0	+5	+13	1.6
2031	24	MLB	MIL	71%	452	389	91	18	2	11	52	113	8	8	1	234	336	375	712	141	296	25	12	310	95	-2	+1	-0	+5	+13	1.7
2032	25	MLB	MIL	71%	446	384	89	17	2	11	51	111	8	8	1	232	334	372	706	141	297	25	11	311	96	-2	+1	-0	+5	+13	1.7
2033	26	MLB	MIL	71%	439	378	88	17	2	11	51	109	7	7	1	233	335	376	711	143	296	25	12	312	97	-2	+1	-0	+5	+12	1.7
2034	27	MLB	MIL	69%	423	364	85	16	2	11	49	106	7	7	1	234	336	379	715	146	296	25	12	312	97	-1	+1	-0	+5	+12	1.6
2035	28	MLB	MIL	69%	411	353	83	16	2	11	48	103	7	7	1	235	338	385	724	150	296	25	12	311	96	-2	+1	-1	+4	+12	1.5
2036	29	MLB	MIL	67%	393	337	78	15	2	10	46	99	7	6	1	231	336	377	713	145	295	25	12	310	95	-2	+1	-1	+4	+11	1.3
2037	30	MLB	MIL	66%	379	325	74	14	2	9	45	97	6	6	1	228	332	366	699	138	294	26	12	307	93	-3	+1	-1	+4	+11	1.1
2038	31	MLB	MIL	65%	368	316	72	14	2	9	43	95	6	5	1	228	332	370	702	142	292	26	12	304	91	-4	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.9
2039	32	MLB	MIL	65%	358	307	68	13	1	8	42	94	6	5	1	221	327	349	675	127	289	26	12	299	87	-5	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.7
2040	33	MLB	MIL	70%	345	296	65	12	1	8	40	92	6	4	1	220	325	348	673	128	285	27	12	292	82	-7	+0	-3	+4	+10	0.4
2041	34	MLB	MIL	66%	292	251	52	9	1	6	34	80	5	3	1	207	314	323	637	116	280	27	12	284	76	-8	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.0
2042	35	MLB	MIL	61%	238	204	42	7	1	5	28	67	4	3	0	206	314	324	637	118	274	28	12	275	69	-8	+1	-3	+3	+7	-0.2
2043	36	MLB	MIL	52%	172	147	30	5	1	3	20	50	3	2	0	204	312	313	625	109	267	29	12	265	61	-8	+0	-3	+2	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6219	5347	1210	230	28	146	721	1602	105	101	15	226	330	362	692	135	293	26	12	302	90	-74	+14	-22	+67	+176	16.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	559	126	24	3	15	75	167	11	11	2	225	329	360	688	134	292	26	12	302	90	-8	+1	-2	+7	+18	1.7
Career	—			—	9795	8418	1916	365	45	230	1133	2539	165	165	28	228	331	364	694	136	296	26	12	315	99	-7	+22	-34	+105	+278	37.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	559	127	24	3	15	75	168	11	11	2	227	330	361	692	134	296	26	12	315	99	-0	+1	-2	+7	+18	2.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	66	58	14	1	0	0	6	17	2	0	1	241	333	259	592	17	341	26	9	283	75	-2	-0	—	—	+2	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	12	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.2	25.1
	/162	664	17	6	252	318	423	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#2Alex Avilalast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 3,638 PA	13	3,638	105	8	233	348	393	+65	+46	26.7	24.5
	/162	664	19	1	233	348	393	+11.9	+8.5	4.9	pk7: 22
#3Chris Iannettalast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 4,253 PA	14	4,253	141	11	230	345	406	+76	-30	23.7	21.5
	/162	664	22	2	230	345	406	+11.9	-4.6	3.7	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	6,372	152	103	230	329	369	+63	+0	25.9	20.5
	/162	664	16	11	230	329	369	+6.6	+0.0	2.7	pk7: 15
#4Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#5John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#5John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#6Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brady Ebel (OGILVIE)	19	39→51	36→48	47→45	60	208/322/314	106	292	9	37	29%	12%	83	+1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→59	41→50	49→50	58	241/333/346	105	301	8	10	21%	12%	96	+1.5	249/334/387	138	332	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	244/330/384	140	317	13	15	25%	11%	101	+1.8
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	88	+0.9	191/266/284	93	290	7	5	34%	9%	52	-1.6	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	45→53	42→50	52→55	54	215/320/330	115	290	9	18	26%	12%	88	+0.9	235/321/384	149	306	13	20	25%	10%	101	+1.8	236/324/395	159	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.2
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	41→50	50→40	52	218/297/315	97	275	8	8	23%	10%	73	-0.1	225/288/361	136	282	16	4	25%	8%	81	+0.4	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A	19	51→60	39→50	49→55	48	241/309/334	92	287	6	11	18%	7%	82	+0.5	233/291/345	112	300	8	23	24%	5%	78	+0.2	261/326/416	155	313	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.0
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	53→58	41→45	46→50	52	253/323/352	98	306	9	15	19%	9%	92	+1.2	232/301/330	98	277	8	10	18%	9%	78	+0.2	264/356/391	126	308	11	2	17%	11%	114	+2.9
✕Richi Sanchez 2014 · A	20	52	40→45	50	57	243/333/344	100	295	6	10	18%	11%	95	+1.4	217/286/295	78	282	3	7	22%	8%	63	-0.9	202/252/280	79	255	0	6	20%	6%	40	-0.6
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51→42	43→45	51→55	52	244/320/360	116	300	9	14	21%	9%	94	+1.3	228/320/325	97	311	8	17	26%	11%	85	+0.7	226/320/360	134	289	14	26	25%	12%	91	+0.8
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	48→47	45→55	48→55	46	233/305/357	125	310	12	12	27%	8%	87	+0.8	242/305/384	142	306	15	16	25%	7%	94	+1.3	248/306/416	169	299	18	16	23%	6%	100	+1.2
●Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	44	39→55	52→50	46	210/278/299	89	296	6	9	30%	8%	60	-1.0	189/246/313	124	271	11	8	33%	7%	50	-1.7	218/311/403	185	271	23	12	27%	11%	99	+1.3
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	48→42	43→50	47→45	50	230/306/345	115	283	9	10	21%	8%	85	+0.7	221/273/345	124	289	14	8	27%	6%	70	-0.3	225/289/370	145	269	18	4	23%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	72	-0.2	235/300/339	104	298	6	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	254/315/362	108	309	9	16	20%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	231/306/343	112	272	11	5	19%	7%	85	+0.7	224/289/325	101	280	9	6	22%	6%	72	-0.2	209/262/317	108	250	12	1	21%	4%	55	-0.3
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	50	47→45	49→50	47	249/302/385	136	294	15	11	21%	7%	92	+1.2	235/320/365	130	278	12	13	19%	10%	95	+1.4	231/321/358	127	270	11	12	18%	10%	91	+1.0
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→49	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	74	-0.1	230/299/349	119	326	11	11	30%	9%	82	+0.5	228/302/349	121	326	10	15	31%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Jesus Morelli 2009 · A	19	49	42→45	48→50	49	234/311/346	112	300	9	12	24%	8%	87	+0.8	220/282/289	69	304	4	10	27%	6%	59	-1.1	219/279/260	41	287	0	14	22%	6%	47	-0.5
✕Jaff Decker 2009 · A	19	53→49	43→55	53→55	59	249/353/369	120	330	10	10	25%	13%	110	+2.4	232/321/407	175	309	21	8	30%	11%	108	+2.3	213/301/403	189	279	24	8	31%	10%	97	+1.2
●Josh Thole 2006 · A	19	46→56	37→40	47→45	53	218/297/291	73	256	5	5	16%	8%	66	-0.6	227/292/293	66	286	3	4	20%	7%	64	-0.8	281/343/378	97	316	5	4	12%	8%	106	+1.6
●Andrew Lambo 2008 · A	19	50→49	43→65	43→45	48	240/309/354	114	306	9	4	24%	8%	88	+0.9	237/281/368	131	310	13	4	27%	5%	79	+0.3	242/291/471	228	307	31	5	31%	6%	111	+1.4
✕Alexi Amarista 2008 · A	19	51→60	41→45	51→55	47	246/294/352	105	276	8	13	14%	6%	80	+0.4	260/308/359	99	300	5	18	14%	6%	87	+0.8	271/315/373	103	310	5	21	14%	5%	91	+0.8