Brady Ebel — OGILVIE

Brady EbelSS Wilson Warbirds

Age 19 L/R 6'3" / 195 lbs A HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION538 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP297

ISO125

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$101M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$13M	+$12M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$13M	+$12M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$12M	+$11M
2033	Arb-1	$7M	+2.3	$11M	+$7M
2034	Arb-2	$12M	+2.2	$10M	+$4M
2035	Arb-3	$17M	+2.1	$8M	+$2M
Totals		$40M		$66M	+$49M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	66	58	14	1	0	0	6	17	2	0	1	241	333	259	592	17	341	26	9	283	78	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	66	60	13	1	0	0	4	23	2	0	1	217	288	233	521	17	334	35	6	228	40	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	66	60	13	1	0	0	4	23	2	0	1	217	288	233	521	17	351	35	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	—	66	58	14	1	0	0	6	17	2	0	1	241	333	259	592	17	341	26	9	283	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	66	60	13	1	0	0	4	23	2	0	1	217	288	233	521	17	334	35	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	66	60	13	1	0	0	4	23	2	0	1	217	288	233	521	17	334	35	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A MLE	MIL	—	538	454	97	22	3	9	67	161	12	40	4	214	330	335	665	121	304	30	12	299	89	-7	+6	+0	+6	+12	1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A RAW	MIL	—	494	383	100	23	4	10	96	101	10	39	3	261	421	420	842	159	325	20	19	381	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A+ RAW	MIL	—	44	33	5	3	0	0	9	13	2	1	1	152	364	242	606	91	250	30	20	305	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A MLE	MIL	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		299	22	11	308	95	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	A MLE	MIL	—	547	462	98	22	3	9	68	163	12	40	4	212	328	331	660	119	302	30	12	300	89	-7	+6	-0	+6	+12	1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIL	43%	581	498	113	24	3	11	68	154	10	16	2	227	332	353	685	127	302	27	12	312	97	-2	+2	-0	+6	+13	2.0
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	61%	609	522	121	25	3	14	71	157	11	14	2	232	336	372	708	140	302	26	12	322	104	+3	+2	-0	+7	+13	2.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIL	68%	627	539	128	26	4	16	72	158	11	13	2	237	339	390	729	152	302	25	11	328	108	+6	+2	-0	+7	+14	2.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIL	71%	638	548	132	27	4	17	74	158	11	12	2	241	343	398	741	157	302	25	12	331	110	+8	+2	-0	+7	+14	3.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIL	71%	637	547	133	27	4	18	74	156	11	12	1	243	345	406	751	163	303	24	12	334	112	+9	+2	-0	+7	+14	3.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIL	71%	629	539	131	26	4	18	74	154	11	11	1	243	346	406	752	163	303	24	12	336	113	+10	+2	-0	+7	+14	3.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIL	71%	619	530	129	26	3	18	73	151	11	11	1	243	347	406	753	162	303	24	12	336	114	+10	+2	-0	+7	+13	3.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIL	69%	609	521	125	25	3	17	72	149	11	10	1	240	344	397	742	157	303	24	12	337	114	+10	+2	-0	+7	+13	3.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIL	69%	598	510	123	25	3	17	72	147	11	10	1	241	347	402	749	161	303	25	12	336	113	+9	+2	-1	+6	+13	3.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIL	67%	587	501	120	24	3	16	71	146	10	9	1	240	345	395	741	156	302	25	12	334	112	+8	+1	-2	+6	+13	2.8
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIL	66%	576	492	117	23	3	16	69	145	10	8	1	238	343	394	738	157	301	25	12	331	110	+7	+1	-2	+6	+12	2.5
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIL	65%	564	481	114	23	3	15	68	143	10	8	1	237	343	391	734	154	299	25	12	327	108	+5	+1	-3	+6	+12	2.2
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIL	65%	553	473	109	21	3	14	66	143	9	7	1	230	336	376	712	146	296	26	12	322	104	+3	+1	-4	+6	+12	1.8
2040	33	MLB MLE	MIL	65%	491	421	94	18	2	12	59	129	8	6	1	223	330	361	691	138	292	26	12	315	100	-0	+1	-4	+5	+11	1.2
2041	34	MLB MLE	MIL	60%	444	381	82	15	2	10	53	120	7	5	1	215	322	344	666	129	286	27	12	307	94	-3	+1	-5	+5	+10	0.7
2042	35	MLB MLE	MIL	56%	389	334	69	12	2	8	46	108	6	4	1	207	313	326	640	120	279	28	12	297	87	-6	+0	-6	+4	+8	0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIL	43%	251	216	48	10	1	5	29	67	4	7	1	222	325	347	673	125	300	27	12	300	97	-1	+1	-0	+3	+5	0.8
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	61%	371	318	74	15	2	9	43	95	7	9	1	233	337	377	714	145	300	26	12	309	104	+2	+1	-0	+4	+8	1.5
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIL	68%	427	367	86	17	2	11	49	107	8	9	1	234	337	381	719	147	300	25	11	316	108	+4	+1	-0	+5	+9	1.9
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIL	71%	454	390	94	19	3	13	53	112	8	9	1	241	344	405	749	164	301	25	12	320	110	+6	+1	-0	+5	+10	2.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIL	71%	452	388	94	19	3	13	53	111	8	8	1	242	345	407	752	165	301	25	12	323	112	+7	+1	-0	+5	+10	2.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIL	71%	446	383	93	18	3	13	52	109	8	8	1	243	345	407	753	164	301	24	12	324	113	+7	+1	-0	+5	+10	2.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIL	71%	439	376	91	18	2	13	52	107	8	8	1	242	346	404	751	162	301	24	12	325	114	+7	+1	-0	+5	+10	2.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIL	69%	423	362	87	17	2	13	50	104	8	7	1	240	345	406	751	166	301	25	12	325	114	+7	+1	-0	+5	+9	2.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIL	69%	411	352	85	17	2	12	49	101	7	7	1	241	346	403	749	162	301	25	12	324	113	+6	+1	-1	+4	+9	2.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIL	67%	393	336	80	16	2	11	47	98	7	6	1	238	344	396	739	158	300	25	12	322	112	+6	+1	-1	+4	+9	1.9
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIL	66%	379	323	77	15	2	11	46	95	7	6	1	238	346	399	745	161	299	25	12	320	110	+5	+1	-1	+4	+8	1.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIL	65%	368	315	73	14	2	10	44	94	6	5	1	232	337	384	721	152	297	26	12	316	108	+3	+1	-2	+4	+8	1.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIL	65%	358	306	72	14	2	10	43	92	6	5	1	235	341	392	733	157	294	26	12	311	104	+2	+1	-2	+4	+8	1.2
2040	33	MLB CTX	MIL	65%	317	271	61	12	1	8	38	83	5	4	1	225	331	365	697	140	290	26	12	304	100	-0	+0	-3	+3	+7	0.8
2041	34	MLB CTX	MIL	60%	267	229	49	9	1	6	32	72	4	3	0	214	321	341	661	127	284	27	12	296	94	-2	+1	-3	+3	+6	0.4
2042	35	MLB CTX	MIL	56%	216	185	39	7	1	5	25	60	4	2	0	211	318	341	658	130	278	28	12	286	87	-3	+0	-3	+2	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5972	5117	1203	237	31	163	705	1507	105	103	14	235	340	389	729	154	299	25	12	316	107	+55	+15	-17	+64	+129	25.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	557	131	26	3	18	77	164	11	11	2	235	340	390	729	154	299	25	12	316	107	+6	+2	-2	+7	+14	2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	9226	7905	1854	368	49	237	1087	2343	160	156	21	235	339	383	722	149	301	25	12	326	107	+78	+23	-28	+98	+198	37.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	557	131	26	3	17	77	165	11	11	1	235	340	384	724	149	302	25	12	326	107	+6	+2	-2	+7	+14	2.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jhonny Peraltalast yr '17 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,291 PA	11.0	7,291	202	17	267	329	423	+66	+63	42.9	37.5
/162	664	18	2	+6.1	+5.8	3.9	pk7: 32
#2Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#3Chase Headleylast yr '18 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,740 PA	8.6	5,740	130	93	263	343	400	+6	+26	27.7	26.7
/162	664	15	11	+0.8	+3.1	3.2	pk7: 26
#4Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	7.4	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.3	25.1
/162	664	17	6	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#5Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	9.0	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	25.0
/162	664	20	20	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	9.2	6,126	159	105	237	337	387	+62	+0	30.4	23.9
/162	664	17	11	+6.7	+0.0	3.3	pk7: 17
#6Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	7.5	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brady Ebel (OGILVIE)	19	39→51	36→48	47→45	60	220/327/342	122	299	3	8	27%	12%	95	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	52→58	41→45	46→50	51	249/316/346	97	301	9	15	20%	9%	90	+0.6	231/301/326	95	276	7	10	18%	9%	79	-0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→60	41→50	49→50	58	237/329/342	104	299	8	10	22%	12%	94	+0.9	248/333/382	134	332	12	14	26%	11%	104	+1.6	244/329/380	136	317	13	15	25%	11%	100	+1.3
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	89	+0.5	191/267/284	93	292	7	5	34%	9%	57	-1.8	188/237/266	78	247	8	4	27%	6%	40	-0.9
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	55	216/324/330	114	293	8	18	27%	12%	91	+0.6	237/321/380	143	308	13	20	25%	10%	100	+1.3	237/324/389	152	306	14	21	25%	10%	100	+0.9
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51	43→50	50→55	51	244/315/357	114	300	9	14	21%	9%	92	+0.7	228/318/325	97	308	8	17	26%	11%	86	+0.3	228/320/369	141	283	16	24	24%	11%	94	+0.8
✕Richi Sanchez 2014 · A	20	52	40→45	50	57	243/333/344	100	295	6	10	18%	11%	96	+1.0	217/286/295	78	282	3	7	22%	8%	67	-1.1	202/252/280	79	255	0	6	20%	6%	47	-0.6
✕Jaff Decker 2009 · A	19	53→49	43→55	53→55	59	249/353/369	120	330	10	10	25%	13%	109	+2.0	230/321/393	163	306	18	8	29%	11%	103	+1.6	214/305/383	170	280	20	8	30%	10%	95	+0.7
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	42→52	47→50	45→40	47	215/281/345	130	270	15	5	26%	8%	77	-0.3	241/299/370	129	293	14	4	22%	7%	89	+0.5	255/314/382	127	304	14	3	20%	7%	96	+0.9
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A	19	51→60	39→50	48→55	48	240/307/330	90	287	6	11	18%	6%	83	+0.1	233/289/339	106	300	7	23	24%	5%	78	-0.3	260/325/413	154	312	16	25	21%	5%	105	+1.5
●Jeimer Candelario 2013 · A	19	50→57	40→60	44→45	52	240/311/338	98	300	7	5	22%	9%	86	+0.3	209/264/324	115	262	10	2	23%	7%	65	-1.2	251/327/436	184	301	19	3	22%	9%	112	+2.1
✕Victor Ortega 2023 · A	19	48	38→45	43→45	50	224/305/303	79	298	4	6	24%	9%	76	-0.4	218/318/280	62	282	2	7	20%	12%	76	-0.4	223/337/308	85	295	4	3	22%	13%	89	+0.2
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	50→51	46→45	49→50	47	248/302/374	126	296	14	11	21%	7%	91	+0.7	233/316/354	121	279	10	13	19%	9%	92	+0.7	238/315/361	123	274	12	9	17%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Adael Amador 2023 · A	20	51→54	46→50	46→55	55	252/334/383	131	290	14	14	18%	10%	105	+1.7	229/302/359	130	266	15	21	19%	9%	88	+0.4	216/294/338	122	249	13	22	19%	9%	78	-0.2
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→55	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	84	+0.1	213/299/399	186	281	23	6	32%	9%	97	+1.1	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
●Jackson Merrill 2023 · A	20	51→57	43→60	51→50	42	247/291/361	114	327	10	12	27%	6%	83	+0.1	260/301/422	162	298	18	11	19%	5%	102	+1.5	266/313/459	193	307	23	15	21%	6%	112	+2.1
●Wander Franco 2021 · A	20	53→57	44→55	47→55	53	259/313/384	126	277	10	10	12%	7%	97	+1.1	271/327/430	159	295	14	14	13%	7%	113	+2.3	278/337/452	174	298	16	20	12%	8%	118	+2.0
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	231/306/343	112	272	11	5	19%	7%	86	+0.3	224/289/325	101	280	9	6	22%	6%	76	-0.4	212/264/322	110	252	12	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	76	-0.4	235/301/339	104	297	6	12	21%	8%	82	+0.0	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
●Edgar Quero 2022 · A	19	44→54	44→50	48→40	45	201/299/321	121	330	10	6	38%	10%	80	-0.2	237/326/378	141	300	15	5	24%	10%	102	+1.5	240/328/378	138	294	15	4	22%	9%	100	+1.0
●David Dahl 2013 · A	19	53→57	46→60	51→55	41	259/293/403	145	311	11	10	21%	4%	94	+0.9	238/269/364	126	304	9	14	24%	4%	76	-0.4	267/318/453	186	342	20	12	27%	7%	112	+1.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps