Brady Ebel

SS Wilson Warbirds
Age 20 L/R 6'3" / 195 lbs A HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP45OGV rank#49ETA2028MLB%4%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202518ACarolina Mudc…66.241/.333/.2590049—.217/.288/.233
202619A+/AMIL538.252/.417/.406104098—.220/.349/.341
2027PROJMLE20MLBMIL8.224/.336/.34500990.0
2028PROJ50% MLB21MLBMIL258.230/.341/.366661051.1
2029PROJ69% MLB22MLBMIL379.235/.344/.3811081091.8
Next 3 projected WAR 2.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$7M2034Arb-2$12M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
BB%95
Chase%84
Z-Con%46
wOBA32
wRC+27
Whiff%27
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 38, comp-based) · star 10% · didn't stick 60%
CompsJ.P. Crawford (age 20) · Jackson Holliday (age 19) · Sal Stewart (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†99
AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .336 / .345
PA8
HR0
K%25
BB%12
BABIP284
ISO124
MLB%4%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-0BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.80+0.8WAR
0.01.53.00.01.11.82.12.32.42.52.42.227282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$97M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+2.1$13M+$13M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+2.3$14M+$13M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+2.4$13M+$13M
2033Arb-1$7M+2.5$13M+$9M
2034Arb-2$12M+2.4$11M+$6M
2035Arb-3$16M+2.2$10M+$3M
Totals $37M $74M +$56M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202518 ACarolina Mudcats — 6658 14100 6172 01 241333259592 17341 269 283 49 — — — — — —
202619 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers — 4433 5300 9132 11 152364242606 91250 3020 305 47 — — — — — —
202619 AWilson Warbirds — 494383 10023410 9610110 393 261421420842 159325 2019 381 103 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202518 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 6660 13100 4222 01 217288233521 17344 336 241 49 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLEWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 4435 4200 7162 11 114295171467 57224 3616 238 47 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEWilson Warbirds — 494410 942048 6913710 393 229354356710 127313 2814 320 103 — — — — — —
202518 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 6660 13100 4222 01 217288233521 17342 336 241 49 — — — — — —
202518 A RAWCarolina Mudcats — 6658 14100 6172 01 241333259592 17341 269 283 49 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 538445 992348 7615412 404 222351346697 124316 2914 313 98 — — — — — —
202619 A RAW2 teams — 538416 10526410 10511412 404 252417406823 154320 2120 375 98 — — — — — —
202518 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 6660 13100 4222 01 217288233521 17344 336 241 49 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 538445 992348 7615412 404 222351346697 124306 2914 313 98 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202518 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 6660 13100 4222 01 217288233521 17344 336 241 49 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 538445 992348 7615412 404 222351346697 124306 2914 313 98 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEMIL 4% 588499 11223310 751379 132 227339348687 121290 2313 314 99 -1 +2 -1 +6 +13 0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202720 MLB CTXMIL 4% 87 1000 120 00 224336345681 121284 2512 312 99 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEMIL 50% 517437 10321311 661189 112 233344369712 136291 2313 324 105 +3 +1 -1 +6 +11 2.1
202922 MLB MLEMIL 69% 550467 11022313 691239 112 237347383730 145292 2213 330 109 +6 +1 -0 +6 +12 2.6
203023 MLB MLEMIL 77% 560476 11423314 701249 112 240348392740 151292 2212 334 112 +8 +1 +0 +6 +12 2.8
203124 MLB MLEMIL 78% 578493 11924315 711279 102 242348397746 155293 2212 335 113 +9 +1 +1 +6 +13 3.0
203225 MLB MLEMIL 79% 590504 12224316 721309 102 243348399747 156293 2212 336 113 +9 +1 +1 +6 +13 3.1
203326 MLB MLEMIL 79% 599512 12425316 731329 102 243348399747 156293 2212 336 113 +9 +1 +1 +6 +13 3.2
203427 MLB MLEMIL 78% 596509 12324316 731329 92 242347396743 155292 2212 334 112 +9 +1 +1 +6 +13 3.1
203528 MLB MLEMIL 77% 585500 12024315 711319 82 240345392737 152292 2212 332 111 +7 +1 +0 +6 +13 2.8
203629 MLB MLEMIL 75% 568486 11523314 691288 72 238342385728 148291 2312 328 108 +6 +1 -0 +6 +12 2.5
203730 MLB MLEMIL 74% 552472 11222314 671278 62 235339378717 143289 2312 324 105 +4 +0 -1 +6 +12 2.1
203831 MLB MLEMIL 73% 534458 10521212 641257 52 231334368702 137286 2312 318 101 +1 +0 -2 +6 +12 1.7
203932 MLB MLEMIL 72% 511438 9819211 611227 37 225328355683 130283 2412 311 97 -2 -2 -3 +5 +11 1.0
204033 MLB MLEMIL 79% 476411 9017210 561166 328 219321340661 121278 2412 302 90 -5 -11 -3 +5 +10 -0.4
202821 MLB CTXMIL 50% 258219 511016 33594 61 230341366708 136286 2313 322 105 +2 +1 -0 +3 +6 1.1
202922 MLB CTXMIL 69% 379322 7614210 48856 81 235344381726 146287 2213 328 109 +4 +1 -0 +4 +8 1.8
203023 MLB CTXMIL 77% 429366 8716212 53957 82 238346391736 153287 2212 332 112 +6 +1 +0 +5 +9 2.1
203124 MLB CTXMIL 78% 451385 9217213 56997 82 240346396742 156288 2212 334 113 +7 +1 +0 +5 +10 2.3
203225 MLB CTXMIL 79% 464398 9518213 561027 82 241346398744 158288 2212 334 113 +7 +1 +1 +5 +10 2.4
203326 MLB CTXMIL 79% 473405 9718214 581047 82 240346398743 158288 2212 334 113 +7 +1 +1 +5 +10 2.5
203427 MLB CTXMIL 78% 462396 9418213 561027 71 239345395740 156287 2212 333 112 +7 +1 +1 +5 +10 2.4
203528 MLB CTXMIL 77% 450385 9117212 551007 61 238343391733 153287 2212 330 111 +6 +1 +0 +5 +10 2.2
203629 MLB CTXMIL 75% 425364 8516211 52966 51 235340384724 149286 2312 327 108 +4 +1 -0 +5 +9 1.9
203730 MLB CTXMIL 74% 406348 8015210 49936 51 232337376713 144284 2312 322 105 +3 +1 -1 +4 +9 1.6
203831 MLB CTXMIL 73% 389334 7714210 47915 32 228332366698 138281 2312 317 101 +1 -0 -1 +4 +8 1.2
203932 MLB CTXMIL 72% 370318 711328 44885 35 223326354680 131278 2412 309 97 -2 -1 -2 +4 +8 0.7
204033 MLB CTXMIL 79% 374322 701318 44915 222 216319338657 122273 2412 300 90 -4 -8 -3 +4 +8 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 53304562 106619924140 651120579 7743 234339380719 146286 2312 326 106 +48 -2 -5 +57 +115 21.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650556 13024317 7914710 95 234340379719 146286 2312 326 106 +6 -0 -1 +7 +14 2.7
Career— MLE — 80306846 160732141189 9891860125 14963 235342376718 142293 2312 325 106 +64 -1 -7 +80 +161 30.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650554 12926315 8015110 125 233340372712 139291 2312 325 106 +6 -0 -1 +7 +14 2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AWilson Warbirds · 494 PAwOBA .376 → .320 (−56)K% 20.4% → 27.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.45%÷1.000×1.360——27.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.43%÷1.000×0.690—×1.04514.01%
HBP% /PA2.02%—×0.780—×1.0451.65%
Singles /BIP22.34%÷1.000×0.920×1.036×1.04522.25%
Doubles /BIP8.16%÷1.000×0.830×1.036×1.0457.33%
Triples /BIP1.42%÷1.000×0.910×1.036×1.0451.40%
Home runs /BIP3.55%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0452.96%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .376 → .320; ISO .159 → .139; BABIP .325 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 44 PAwOBA .299 → .238 (−60)K% 29.5% → 37.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.55%÷1.000×1.270——37.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.45%÷1.000×0.710—×1.05015.25%
HBP% /PA4.55%—×0.790—×1.0503.77%
Singles /BIP10.00%÷1.000×0.920—×1.0509.66%
Doubles /BIP15.00%÷1.000×0.810—×1.05012.76%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .299 → .238; ISO .091 → .074; BABIP .250 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 66 PAwOBA .277 → .241 (−36)K% 25.8% → 33.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.76%÷1.033×1.360——33.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.09%÷0.981×0.690—×1.0506.71%
HBP% /PA3.03%—×0.780—×1.0502.48%
Singles /BIP31.71%÷0.948×0.920—×1.05032.30%
Doubles /BIP2.44%÷1.002×0.830—×1.0502.12%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.214×0.800—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .277 → .241; ISO .017 → .014; BABIP .341 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).