Iker Redona — OGILVIE

Iker Redona P ACL Reds

Age 18 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8796vR 105

ERA3.75

FIP3.75

K%25.1%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%19.0%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4055

CMD2560

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	13	6	31	114	42	3	1	46%	2.4	25.1%	3.3%	21.8%	1.3%	0.86	2.09	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	13	6	31	114	42	3	1	46%	2.4	36.8%	2.6%	34.2%	0.9%	0.86	1.12	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	ROK	ACL Reds	10	6	42	175	57	6	1	60%	4.2	22.1%	4.3%	17.9%	0.8%	3.00	2.21	+1.1
ROS	18	MLB	CIN	8	8	57	239	60	15	7	100%	7.1	25.1%	6.1%	19.0%	2.9%	3.75	3.75	+0.5
ROS	18	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.1%	6.1%	19.0%	3.0%	3.79	3.79	—
2026 TOT	18	MLB	CIN	—	—	99	414	117	21	8	—	—	28.3%	5.0%	23.3%	1.9%	3.43	3.09	+2.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	CIN	14	14	85	361	91	23	10	100%	6.1	25.4%	6.2%	19.1%	2.9%	3.75	3.72	+1.4
2028	20	MLB	CIN	19	19	120	505	129	31	14	100%	6.3	25.5%	6.2%	19.4%	2.8%	3.71	3.66	+2.4
2029	21	MLB	CIN	25	25	160	674	173	41	19	100%	6.4	25.7%	6.0%	19.7%	2.8%	3.66	3.60	+3.4
2030	22	MLB	CIN	28	28	175	739	196	42	20	100%	6.2	26.6%	5.7%	20.9%	2.7%	3.54	3.46	+4.0
2031	23	MLB	CIN	29	29	180	760	207	41	20	100%	6.2	27.3%	5.4%	21.9%	2.7%	3.41	3.33	+4.4
2032	24	MLB	CIN	29	29	180	760	212	39	20	100%	6.2	27.9%	5.1%	22.7%	2.7%	3.31	3.24	+4.5
2033	25	MLB	CIN	29	29	180	760	215	38	20	100%	6.2	28.2%	5.0%	23.2%	2.6%	3.23	3.18	+4.7
2034	26	MLB	CIN	29	29	180	760	216	38	20	100%	6.2	28.4%	5.0%	23.5%	2.6%	3.19	3.16	+4.7
2035	27	MLB	CIN	28	28	177	749	213	38	20	100%	6.3	28.4%	5.1%	23.4%	2.7%	3.19	3.20	+4.6
2036	28	MLB	CIN	27	27	172	726	206	38	20	100%	6.4	28.3%	5.2%	23.1%	2.8%	3.25	3.28	+4.3
2037	29	MLB	CIN	26	26	164	694	195	38	20	100%	6.3	28.1%	5.4%	22.6%	2.9%	3.35	3.41	+3.8
2038	30	MLB	CIN	25	25	154	652	181	37	20	100%	6.2	27.7%	5.7%	22.0%	3.1%	3.49	3.59	+3.3
2039	31	MLB	CIN	23	23	144	608	166	37	20	100%	6.3	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	3.4%	3.67	3.79	+2.7
2027	19	MLB	CIN	7	7	42	177	45	11	5	100%	6.0	25.4%	6.2%	19.1%	3.0%	3.79	3.76	+0.4
2028	20	MLB	CIN	14	14	87	367	94	23	11	100%	6.2	25.5%	6.2%	19.4%	2.9%	3.75	3.70	+1.4
2029	21	MLB	CIN	22	22	135	570	147	34	16	100%	6.1	25.7%	6.0%	19.7%	2.9%	3.70	3.64	+2.8
2030	22	MLB	CIN	25	25	157	663	176	38	19	100%	6.3	26.6%	5.7%	20.9%	2.8%	3.58	3.50	+3.5
2031	23	MLB	CIN	27	27	167	705	192	38	19	100%	6.2	27.3%	5.4%	21.9%	2.8%	3.45	3.37	+4.0
2032	24	MLB	CIN	27	27	169	714	199	37	19	100%	6.3	27.9%	5.1%	22.7%	2.7%	3.35	3.28	+4.2
2033	25	MLB	CIN	27	27	171	722	204	36	20	100%	6.3	28.2%	5.0%	23.2%	2.7%	3.27	3.22	+4.4
2034	26	MLB	CIN	27	27	171	722	205	36	20	100%	6.3	28.4%	5.0%	23.5%	2.7%	3.23	3.20	+4.4
2035	27	MLB	CIN	27	27	168	709	202	36	20	100%	6.2	28.4%	5.1%	23.4%	2.8%	3.23	3.24	+4.2
2036	28	MLB	CIN	26	26	163	688	195	36	20	100%	6.3	28.3%	5.2%	23.1%	2.9%	3.29	3.32	+4.0
2037	29	MLB	CIN	25	25	156	659	185	36	20	100%	6.2	28.1%	5.4%	22.6%	3.0%	3.39	3.45	+3.5
2038	30	MLB	CIN	23	23	147	621	172	36	20	100%	6.4	27.7%	5.7%	22.0%	3.2%	3.54	3.64	+3.0
2039	31	MLB	CIN	22	22	137	578	158	35	20	100%	6.2	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	3.5%	3.72	3.84	+2.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			298	298	1870	7894	2172	430	228	100%	6.3	27.5%	5.4%	22.1%	2.9%	3.44	3.05	+51.3
/ 200 IP	—			32	32	200	844	232	46	24	100%	6.3	27.5%	5.4%	22.1%	2.9%	3.44	3.05	+5.5
Career	—			23	12	73	289	67	11	3	52%	3.2	23.3%	3.9%	19.4%	1.0%	2.09	2.16	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			63	33	200	788	184	31	8	52%	3.2	23.3%	3.9%	19.4%	1.0%	2.09	2.16	+7.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Iker Redona (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.75	25.1%	6.1%	2.9%	—	3.65	25.6%	19.4%	365	-0.10	—	—	—
Wei-En Lin L 2027 · 3.44 FIP	19	SW	3.44	25.4%	6.5%	3.0%	.310	2.85	21.6%	14.4%	51	-0.59	2.85	132	90
Juan Rojas L 2026 · 3.65 FIP	18	SP-	3.65	23.0%	7.6%	2.8%	.279	4.23	15.9%	2.4%	164	+0.58	2.74	279	85
Denny Roman L 2027 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	25.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.348	5.24	15.7%	-1.0%	21	+2.00	3.24	109	85
Jorge Rodriguez L 2026 · 2.90 FIP	18	SP-	2.90	21.6%	6.1%	1.5%	.289	4.52	12.7%	5.6%	68	+1.62	2.90	178	77
Nick Bennett L 2029 · 2.83 FIP	21	SP-	2.83	21.7%	5.8%	1.5%	.264	5.12	19.3%	9.8%	227	+2.29	2.83	346	74
Jacob Lopez L 2028 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.58	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.08	3.50	478	73
Yohander Méndez L 2028 · 2.58 FIP	20	SW	2.58	20.4%	6.6%	0.7%	.309	4.56	18.3%	9.1%	411	+1.98	2.58	477	71
Oscar Rayo L 2027 · 2.86 FIP	19	SW	2.86	20.7%	4.6%	1.7%	.321	2.86	17.9%	12.1%	200	+0.00	2.50	362	71
Pablo Aldonis L 2028 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP-	4.25	20.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.324	2.67	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.58	1.89	135	71
James Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	455	70
Taylor Hearn L 2029 · 3.88 FIP	21	SW	3.88	26.1%	10.6%	3.0%	.347	3.97	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.09	3.66	572	70
Aidan Deakins L 2029 · 3.83 FIP	21	SP-	3.83	18.9%	8.5%	2.3%	.323	5.29	17.1%	6.0%	62	+1.46	3.83	119	69
Luis Angel Rodriguez L 2026 · 2.73 FIP	18	SP-	2.73	17.8%	3.8%	1.2%	.221	4.12	19.2%	6.5%	73	+1.39	2.73	388	69
Blake Townsend L 2028 · 3.96 FIP	20	SP-	3.96	26.7%	11.2%	3.1%	.286	4.11	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.15	3.40	263	69
Carlos Peña L 2028 · 3.17 FIP	20	SW	3.17	23.8%	10.5%	1.4%	.301	3.85	19.1%	10.2%	145	+0.68	3.17	577	68
Josh Hendrickson L 2029 · 3.99 FIP	21	SW	3.99	21.8%	6.7%	3.4%	.250	4.39	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.40	3.93	319	68
Matt Bower L 2029 · 3.31 FIP	21	SW	3.31	21.5%	0.0%	3.7%	.320	4.70	18.1%	8.9%	220	+1.39	3.31	239	67
Frankeli Arias L 2027 · 3.68 FIP	19	SW	3.68	16.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.281	5.25	15.8%	3.5%	214	+1.57	3.68	292	67
Osvaldo Hernandez L 2027 · 3.53 FIP	19	SP-	3.53	20.4%	8.1%	2.0%	.324	3.32	15.0%	7.7%	142	-0.21	3.04	312	66
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2029 · 3.19 FIP	21	SP-	3.19	18.7%	7.7%	1.2%	.365	4.75	13.1%	7.3%	157	+1.56	3.19	184	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	152	27.4%	5.5%	1.09	3.42
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Corey Kluber ('23)	8	149	26.1%	5.4%	1.05	3.48
Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF	9	169	21.2%	4.8%	1.10	3.42
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65