Iker Redona — OGILVIE

Iker Redona P ACL Reds

Age 18 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.1 · 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8391vR 99

ERA3.46

FIP3.46

K%25.1%

BB%3.8%

K-BB%21.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$176M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4055

CMD2560

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.2	$22M	+$22M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.7	$26M	+$26M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+4.0	$28M	+$27M
2033	Arb-1	$9M	+4.2	$28M	+$24M
2034	Arb-2	$15M	+4.2	$26M	+$20M
2035	Arb-3	$22M	+4.0	$22M	+$14M
Totals		$49M		$153M	+$132M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	6	31	114	42	3	1	46%	2.4	25.1%	3.3%	21.8%	1.2%	0.86	2.08	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	6	31	114	42	3	1	46%	2.4	25.1%	3.3%	21.8%	1.2%	0.86	2.08	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	13	6	31	114	42	3	1	46%	2.4	36.8%	2.6%	34.2%	0.9%	0.86	1.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	16	12	56	243	76	17	3	75%	3.5	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	1.6%	3.88	3.25	—
YTD	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	16	12	56	243	76	17	3	75%	3.5	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	1.6%	3.88	3.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	CIN	11	7	47	192	64	7	1	64%	4.3	33.3%	3.6%	29.7%	0.5%	2.68	1.03	—
2026	18	A RAW	CIN	5	5	9	51	12	10	2	100%	1.7	23.5%	19.6%	3.9%	3.9%	10.38	5.75	—
ROS	18	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	5	22	5	1	1	100%	5.1	25.1%	3.8%	21.3%	2.9%	3.46	3.46	+0.1
2026 TOT	18	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	61	265	81	18	4	—	—	30.8%	6.7%	24.0%	1.4%	3.84	3.27	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	CIN	18	18	85	361	91	15	10	100%	4.7	25.4%	4.2%	21.2%	2.9%	3.49	3.45	+1.5
2028	20	MLB MLE	CIN	25	25	120	505	129	21	14	100%	4.8	25.5%	4.2%	21.3%	2.8%	3.47	3.42	+2.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	CIN	33	33	160	674	173	28	19	100%	4.8	25.7%	4.2%	21.5%	2.8%	3.43	3.37	+3.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	CIN	33	33	175	739	196	29	20	100%	5.3	26.6%	3.9%	22.7%	2.7%	3.32	3.23	+3.6
2031	23	MLB MLE	CIN	33	33	180	760	207	27	20	100%	5.5	27.3%	3.6%	23.7%	2.7%	3.19	3.10	+4.0
2032	24	MLB MLE	CIN	32	32	180	760	212	26	20	100%	5.6	27.9%	3.4%	24.5%	2.7%	3.08	3.01	+4.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	CIN	31	31	180	760	215	25	20	100%	5.8	28.2%	3.2%	25.0%	2.6%	3.00	2.95	+4.4
2034	26	MLB MLE	CIN	30	30	180	760	216	24	20	100%	6.0	28.4%	3.2%	25.2%	2.6%	2.96	2.93	+4.4
2035	27	MLB MLE	CIN	30	30	177	749	213	24	20	100%	5.9	28.4%	3.3%	25.2%	2.7%	2.97	2.97	+4.3
2036	28	MLB MLE	CIN	29	29	172	726	206	25	20	100%	5.9	28.3%	3.4%	24.9%	2.8%	3.02	3.05	+3.9
2037	29	MLB MLE	CIN	27	27	164	694	195	25	20	100%	6.1	28.1%	3.6%	24.4%	2.9%	3.12	3.18	+3.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	154	652	181	26	20	100%	5.9	27.7%	3.9%	23.8%	3.1%	3.27	3.36	+2.9
2039	31	MLB MLE	CIN	24	24	144	608	166	26	20	100%	6.0	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.4%	3.45	3.56	+2.3
2027	19	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	42	177	45	7	6	100%	4.7	25.4%	4.2%	21.2%	3.1%	3.62	3.58	+0.7
2028	20	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	87	367	94	16	11	100%	4.8	25.5%	4.2%	21.3%	3.1%	3.59	3.54	+1.6
2029	21	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	135	570	147	24	17	100%	4.8	25.7%	4.2%	21.5%	3.0%	3.55	3.49	+2.5
2030	22	MLB CTX	CIN	31	31	157	663	176	26	20	100%	5.1	26.6%	3.9%	22.7%	2.9%	3.44	3.35	+3.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	CIN	31	31	167	705	192	25	20	100%	5.4	27.3%	3.6%	23.7%	2.9%	3.31	3.22	+3.7
2032	24	MLB CTX	CIN	30	30	169	714	199	24	20	100%	5.6	27.9%	3.4%	24.5%	2.9%	3.20	3.13	+4.0
2033	25	MLB CTX	CIN	29	29	171	722	204	23	21	100%	5.9	28.2%	3.2%	25.0%	2.9%	3.12	3.07	+4.2
2034	26	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	171	722	205	23	21	100%	6.1	28.4%	3.2%	25.2%	2.9%	3.08	3.05	+4.2
2035	27	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	168	709	202	23	21	100%	6.0	28.4%	3.3%	25.2%	2.9%	3.09	3.09	+4.0
2036	28	MLB CTX	CIN	27	27	163	688	195	23	21	100%	6.0	28.3%	3.4%	24.9%	3.0%	3.14	3.17	+3.7
2037	29	MLB CTX	CIN	26	26	156	659	185	24	21	100%	6.0	28.1%	3.6%	24.4%	3.2%	3.25	3.31	+3.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	CIN	24	24	147	621	172	24	21	100%	6.1	27.7%	3.9%	23.8%	3.4%	3.41	3.50	+2.8
2039	31	MLB CTX	CIN	23	23	137	578	158	25	21	100%	6.0	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.6%	3.60	3.71	+2.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		333	333	1870	7894	2172	288	240	100%	5.6	27.5%	3.6%	23.9%	3.0%	3.30	2.91	+47.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	232	31	26	100%	5.6	27.5%	3.6%	23.9%	3.0%	3.30	2.91	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		29	18	87	357	81	24	5	62%	3.0	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	1.5%	2.79	2.88	+43.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	41	200	821	186	56	12	62%	3.0	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	1.5%	2.79	2.88	+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Iker Redona (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.46	25.1%	3.8%	2.9%	—	3.41	25.6%	21.4%	365	-0.05	—	—	—
Denny Roman L 2018 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	25.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.348	5.55	15.7%	-1.0%	21	+2.31	3.24	109	73
Juan Rojas L 2022 · 3.66 FIP	18	SP-	3.66	23.0%	7.6%	2.8%	.279	4.29	15.9%	2.4%	164	+0.63	2.74	282	72
Luis Angel Rodriguez L 2018 · 2.73 FIP	18	SP-	2.73	17.8%	3.8%	1.2%	.221	4.13	19.2%	6.5%	73	+1.40	2.73	388	68
Jesús Luzardo L 2017 · 2.42 FIP	19	SP	2.42	19.0%	1.3%	1.4%	.314	3.43	23.6%	16.6%	199	+1.01	2.42	1,057	68
Nick Bennett L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	21	SP-	2.85	21.7%	5.8%	1.6%	.264	5.13	19.3%	9.8%	227	+2.28	2.85	346	67
Jorge Rodriguez L 2019 · 2.90 FIP	18	SP-	2.90	21.6%	6.1%	1.5%	.289	4.25	12.7%	5.6%	68	+1.35	2.90	178	67
Inmer Lobo L 2022 · 2.57 FIP	18	SP	2.57	23.2%	3.0%	1.9%	.275	3.61	18.2%	7.2%	104	+1.04	2.57	151	66
Yadiel Batista L 2023 · 3.00 FIP	19	SP	3.00	16.6%	1.6%	2.0%	.360	4.47	14.5%	5.5%	186	+1.47	3.00	225	66
Luis Cepeda L 2019 · 3.37 FIP	18	SP	3.37	21.3%	3.8%	2.9%	.306	5.06	17.7%	9.5%	22	+1.69	3.37	115	65
Noah Schultz L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	19	SP	4.07	27.0%	6.8%	4.4%	.246	3.71	21.9%	11.8%	271	-0.36	2.52	298	64
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.49	534	62
Kendry Rojas L 2021 · 2.32 FIP	18	SP-	2.32	30.5%	7.2%	1.6%	.310	3.84	18.6%	8.7%	179	+1.52	2.32	318	62
Rodolfo Fajardo L 2018 · 2.78 FIP	18	SP	2.78	20.1%	5.5%	1.2%	.250	5.56	15.6%	5.6%	57	+2.78	2.78	158	61
Yohander Méndez L 2015 · 2.65 FIP	20	SW	2.65	20.4%	6.6%	0.8%	.309	4.65	18.3%	9.1%	411	+2.00	2.65	477	61
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	60
Josh Dye L 2018 · 4.35 FIP	21	SP-	4.35	15.1%	4.1%	3.7%	.373	3.14	23.0%	14.9%	123	-1.21	2.79	238	60
James Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	487	59
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	59
Alberto Pacheco L 2021 · 3.39 FIP	18	SP	3.39	19.1%	6.2%	2.0%	.286	4.08	16.9%	6.3%	239	+0.69	3.07	427	58
Felix Viloria L 2015 · 2.69 FIP	18	SP-	2.69	18.5%	6.6%	0.6%	.297	4.66	14.5%	5.4%	66	+1.97	2.69	128	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.6	152	27.4%	3.7%	1.09	3.19
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Hyun Jin Ryu ('23)	3.5	101	22.0%	5.4%	1.17	3.27