Iker Redona

P ACL Reds

Age 19 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#144ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Rojos	13	6	31	0.86	1.12	36.8%	2.6%	—	K 25.1% · BB 3.3% · FIP 2.08
2026	18	MIX2 levels	16	12	56	3.88	1.99	31.3%	7.0%	—	K 21.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.25
2027PROJ	19	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.02	4.02	22.7%	6.8%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	20	MLBCIN	7	7	32	4.24	4.28	21.8%	7.4%	0.5
2029PROJ57% MLB	21	MLBCIN	13	13	65	4.19	4.15	22.5%	7.1%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$6M2034Arb-2$10M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 82%

CompsDenny Roman (age 19) · Pablo Aldonis (age 20) · Jorge Rodriguez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 110

ERA4.02

FIP4.02

K%22.7%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%16.0%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$90M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$12M	+$12M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$13M	+$12M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+2.5	$13M	+$10M
2034	Arb-2	$10M	+2.6	$13M	+$8M
2035	Arb-3	$14M	+2.5	$11M	+$5M
Totals		$33M		$72M	+$56M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	6	31	114	42	3	1	46%	2.4	25.1%	3.3%	21.8%	1.2%	0.86	2.08	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	6	31	114	42	3	1	46%	2.4	25.1%	3.3%	21.8%	1.2%	0.86	2.08	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	13	6	31	114	42	3	1	46%	2.4	36.8%	2.6%	34.2%	0.9%	0.86	1.12	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	56	243	76	17	3	75%	3.5	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	1.6%	3.88	3.25	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	56	243	76	17	3	75%	3.5	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	1.6%	3.88	3.25	—
2026	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	56	243	76	17	3	75%	3.5	31.3%	7.0%	24.3%	1.2%	3.88	1.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	6.8%	16.0%	2.9%	4.02	4.02	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	92	386	84	29	11	100%	4.8	21.8%	7.4%	14.4%	2.9%	4.11	4.15	+1.4
2029	21	MLB MLE	CIN	24	24	115	484	109	35	14	100%	4.8	22.5%	7.1%	15.3%	2.8%	4.07	4.03	+1.9
2030	22	MLB MLE	CIN	25	25	130	548	129	37	15	100%	5.2	23.5%	6.7%	16.8%	2.8%	3.95	3.86	+2.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	CIN	25	25	132	557	135	36	15	100%	5.3	24.3%	6.5%	17.8%	2.7%	3.83	3.74	+2.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	CIN	23	23	131	551	137	34	15	100%	5.7	24.8%	6.2%	18.6%	2.7%	3.72	3.65	+2.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	128	543	137	33	15	100%	5.8	25.2%	6.1%	19.1%	2.7%	3.64	3.59	+2.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	129	545	139	33	15	100%	5.9	25.4%	6.1%	19.4%	2.7%	3.60	3.57	+2.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	126	534	136	33	15	100%	6.0	25.4%	6.1%	19.3%	2.7%	3.61	3.61	+2.7
2036	28	MLB MLE	CIN	20	20	121	510	129	32	14	100%	6.0	25.3%	6.3%	19.0%	2.8%	3.66	3.70	+2.5
2037	29	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	113	477	119	31	14	100%	5.9	25.0%	6.5%	18.5%	3.0%	3.76	3.83	+2.1
2038	30	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	103	433	107	30	14	100%	6.0	24.7%	6.8%	17.9%	3.2%	3.91	4.00	+1.7
2039	31	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	92	388	94	28	13	100%	6.1	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	3.4%	4.09	4.20	+1.3
2040	32	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	81	342	82	26	13	100%	5.8	23.8%	7.6%	16.3%	3.7%	4.29	4.43	+0.9
2028	20	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	32	135	29	10	4	100%	4.6	21.8%	7.4%	14.4%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+0.5
2029	21	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	65	274	62	20	8	100%	5.0	22.5%	7.1%	15.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.15	+1.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	92	388	91	26	12	100%	5.1	23.5%	6.7%	16.8%	3.0%	4.07	3.98	+1.7
2031	23	MLB CTX	CIN	20	20	105	443	108	29	13	100%	5.2	24.3%	6.5%	17.8%	2.9%	3.95	3.86	+2.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	CIN	20	20	111	469	116	29	14	100%	5.5	24.8%	6.2%	18.6%	2.9%	3.84	3.77	+2.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	CIN	19	19	113	477	120	29	14	100%	5.9	25.2%	6.1%	19.1%	2.9%	3.76	3.71	+2.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	CIN	19	19	116	490	124	30	14	100%	6.1	25.4%	6.1%	19.4%	2.9%	3.72	3.69	+2.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	CIN	19	19	116	490	124	30	14	100%	6.1	25.4%	6.1%	19.3%	2.9%	3.73	3.73	+2.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	CIN	19	19	112	473	120	30	14	100%	5.9	25.3%	6.3%	19.0%	3.1%	3.78	3.82	+2.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	105	443	111	29	14	100%	5.8	25.0%	6.5%	18.5%	3.2%	3.89	3.96	+2.0
2038	30	MLB CTX	CIN	16	16	96	405	100	28	14	100%	6.0	24.7%	6.8%	17.9%	3.4%	4.05	4.14	+1.6
2039	31	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	87	367	89	26	14	100%	6.2	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	3.7%	4.24	4.35	+1.2
2040	32	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	77	325	78	25	13	100%	5.9	23.8%	7.6%	16.3%	3.9%	4.45	4.59	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		215	215	1228	5184	1274	340	162	100%	5.7	24.6%	6.6%	18.0%	3.1%	3.95	3.57	+27.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	208	55	26	100%	5.7	24.6%	6.6%	18.0%	3.1%	3.95	3.57	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		29	18	87	357	81	24	5	62%	3.0	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	1.5%	2.79	2.88	+27.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	41	200	821	186	56	12	62%	3.0	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	1.5%	2.79	2.88	+3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Reds · 47 IPFIP 1.03 → 2.16 (+1.13)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.65%	—	×1.250	4.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.73%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.03 → 2.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 9 IPFIP 5.75 → 7.36 (+1.61)K% 23.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.740	17.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.61%	—	×1.180	23.14%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.75 → 7.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Rojos · 31 IPFIP 0.80 → 2.08 (+1.28)K% 36.8% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.84%	—	×0.680	25.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.63%	—	×1.250	3.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷0.987	×1.400	1.24%

Result: FIP 0.80 → 2.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Iker Redona (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.00	22.7%	15.6%	336	-0.02	—	—	—
Denny Roman L 2018 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	25.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.348	5.55	15.7%	-1.0%	21	+2.31	3.24	109	76
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	75
Jorge Rodriguez L 2019 · 2.90 FIP	18	SP-	2.90	21.6%	6.1%	1.5%	.289	4.25	12.7%	5.6%	68	+1.35	2.90	178	75
Patrick Wicklander L 2022 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP-	4.88	21.5%	7.9%	4.7%	.320	5.00	16.4%	5.8%	156	+0.12	4.88	254	75
Josh Hader L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	21	SP-	3.47	22.1%	8.8%	2.0%	.287	3.41	31.9%	20.5%	307	-0.06	1.31	839	74
Nick Bennett L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	21	SP-	2.85	21.7%	5.8%	1.6%	.264	5.13	19.3%	9.8%	227	+2.28	2.85	346	73
James Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	489	72
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	72
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	71
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2017 · 3.19 FIP	21	SP-	3.19	18.7%	7.7%	1.2%	.365	4.82	13.1%	7.3%	157	+1.63	3.19	184	71
Brett Adcock L 2017 · 4.06 FIP	21	SP-	4.06	19.7%	10.0%	2.5%	.294	4.62	17.2%	2.8%	193	+0.56	4.02	301	71
Johan Simon L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP-	3.51	19.8%	10.2%	1.4%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+0.99	3.45	178	71
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	71
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	71
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	70
Michael Boyle L 2015 · 2.97 FIP	21	SP-	2.97	16.2%	6.7%	0.7%	.305	4.28	14.7%	6.1%	232	+1.31	2.97	406	70
Ryan Wilson L 2017 · 3.43 FIP	20	SP-	3.43	18.5%	8.8%	1.4%	.395	4.12	18.8%	7.9%	155	+0.69	3.43	222	70
Jaylen Nowlin L 2022 · 3.45 FIP	21	SP-	3.45	26.8%	13.3%	1.7%	.352	4.98	19.1%	6.1%	254	+1.53	3.45	372	70
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	70
Dalton Lehnen L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	21	SP	3.95	19.8%	7.6%	2.8%	.398	4.49	15.8%	2.9%	189	+0.54	3.95	222	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	112	24.3%	6.6%	1.12	3.85
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Mike Minor ('22)	7.0	128	21.6%	7.0%	1.30	4.25
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
John Candelaria ('75-'93, 42 WAR*)	12.6	140	22.5%*	5.7%*	1.34*	3.73*
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)	9.0	121	20.4%*	8.5%*	1.10*	4.16*
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*