Blake Townsend
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 25
LHP
6'4" / 245 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
K%16.5%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 2 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 32.0% | 0.0% | 32.0% | 4.0% | 6.75 | 2.59 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 2 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 32.0% | 0.0% | 32.0% | 4.0% | 6.75 | 2.54 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 60% | 3.1 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 3.96 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 60% | 3.1 | 38.8% | 10.4% | 28.4% | 1.5% | 4.11 | 1.93 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 0 | 29 | 134 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.3% | 17.5% | 0.8% | 4.5% | 4.60 | 6.25 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 0 | 29 | 134 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.6% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 2.2% | 4.60 | 3.75 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 35 | 0 | 48 | 211 | 55 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 0.8% | 3.38 | 3.40 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 35 | 0 | 48 | 211 | 55 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.1% | 10.0% | 16.1% | 0.5% | 3.38 | 2.39 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 38 | 169 | 36 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.4% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 2.35 | 3.88 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 38 | 169 | 36 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 0.6% | 2.35 | 3.05 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 12 | 92 | 368 | 81 | 23 | 7 | 35% | 2.7 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 1.76 | 3.96 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 12 | 92 | 368 | 81 | 23 | 7 | 35% | 2.7 | 22.0% | 6.2% | 15.8% | 1.9% | 1.76 | 3.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 14 | 12 | 63 | 279 | 56 | 28 | 13 | 86% | 4.5 | 16.3% | 11.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.26 | 6.19 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 48 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 132 | 568 | 104 | 53 | 21 | — | — | 18.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 52 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 52 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 51 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 0 | 126 | 533 | 95 | 47 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.28 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 150 | 74 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 29 | 292 | 1253 | 231 | 137 | 37 | 20% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 3.36 | 4.57 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 20 | 200 | 859 | 158 | 94 | 26 | 20% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 3.36 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Townsend (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.66 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 206 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .326 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.15 | 0.84 | 577 | 88 |
| Matt Crouse L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .276 | 4.32 | 12.2% | 4.3% | 268 | +0.35 | 3.97 | 342 | 84 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 83 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 83 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 82 |
| Matt Tracy L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 82 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 81 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 80 |
| Jose Molina L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.23 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 144 | 78 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.01 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .292 | 4.17 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.16 | 3.91 | 383 | 78 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 78 |
| Drake Britton L 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 78 |
| Ryan Kellogg L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 12.4% | 5.8% | 2.3% | .359 | 4.23 | 12.3% | 7.1% | 64 | +0.18 | 3.65 | 446 | 76 |
| Michael Heesch L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 14.0% | 10.3% | 1.2% | .284 | 4.59 | 11.1% | 2.8% | 44 | +0.72 | 3.87 | 109 | 76 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 76 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .258 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 4.6% | 144 | +0.04 | 4.44 | 188 | 76 |
| Robby Scott L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.06 | 17.3% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .307 | 3.61 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 162 | -0.45 | 2.34 | 285 | 75 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 75 |
| Jonah Hurney L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 14.0% | 6.8% | 1.8% | .324 | 5.02 | 11.4% | 0.9% | 18 | +1.28 | 2.78 | 137 | 75 |
| Patrick McCoy L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .336 | 4.17 | 15.4% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.45 | 3.72 | 113 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 1.10 | 4.66 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |