Blake Townsend — OGILVIE

Blake Townsend P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 245 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%16.5%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	2	2	5	25	8	0	1	100%	2.7	32.0%	0.0%	32.0%	4.0%	6.75	2.59	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	2	2	5	25	8	0	1	100%	2.7	32.0%	0.0%	32.0%	4.0%	6.75	2.54	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	15	67	26	7	1	60%	3.1	26.7%	11.2%	15.6%	2.8%	4.11	3.78	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	3	15	67	26	7	1	60%	3.1	38.8%	10.4%	28.4%	1.5%	4.11	1.93	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	29	134	37	18	3	0%	1.5	18.3%	17.5%	0.8%	3.8%	4.60	5.83	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	0	29	134	37	18	3	0%	1.5	27.6%	13.4%	14.2%	2.2%	4.60	3.75	—
2023	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	35	0	48	211	55	21	1	0%	1.4	19.3%	11.7%	7.5%	0.7%	3.38	3.34	—
2023	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	35	0	48	211	55	21	1	0%	1.4	19.3%	11.7%	7.5%	0.7%	3.38	3.34	—
2023	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	35	0	48	211	55	21	1	0%	1.4	26.1%	10.0%	16.1%	0.5%	3.38	2.39	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	38	169	36	19	1	0%	1.2	17.4%	14.7%	2.7%	0.8%	2.35	3.93	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	38	169	36	19	1	0%	1.2	17.4%	14.7%	2.7%	0.8%	2.35	3.93	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	38	169	36	19	1	0%	1.2	21.3%	11.2%	10.1%	0.6%	2.35	3.05	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	12	92	368	81	23	7	35%	2.7	17.7%	7.1%	10.6%	2.5%	1.76	3.87	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	12	92	368	81	23	7	35%	2.7	17.7%	7.1%	10.6%	2.5%	1.76	3.87	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	12	92	368	81	23	7	35%	2.7	22.0%	6.2%	15.8%	1.9%	1.76	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	23	21	105	461	94	51	15	91%	4.6	16.6%	11.8%	4.8%	3.9%	4.78	5.34	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	23	21	105	461	94	51	15	91%	4.6	16.6%	11.8%	4.8%	3.9%	4.78	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	TEX	20	18	91	397	77	43	15	90%	4.5	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	3.8%	5.06	4.91	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	TEX	3	3	15	64	17	8	0	100%	4.9	26.6%	12.5%	14.1%	0.0%	3.07	2.44	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	5.9	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	2.7%	4.69	4.69	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	111	486	98	53	16	—	—	20.2%	10.9%	9.2%	3.2%	4.78	5.31	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	98	0	103	436	76	38	12	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	2.7%	4.62	4.61	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	97	0	102	429	76	37	12	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.6%	9.1%	2.8%	4.61	4.62	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	94	0	99	416	74	36	12	0%	1.0	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.69	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	90	0	94	398	70	36	12	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.9%	8.7%	3.1%	4.74	4.81	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	TEX	84	0	88	374	65	35	12	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.2%	8.1%	3.3%	4.89	4.98	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	43	0	45	190	33	16	5	0%	1.0	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	2.7%	4.62	4.61	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	61	0	64	270	48	23	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.6%	9.1%	2.8%	4.61	4.62	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	70	0	74	312	56	27	9	0%	1.1	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.69	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	73	0	77	325	57	29	10	0%	1.1	17.7%	8.9%	8.7%	3.1%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	TEX	72	0	76	321	56	30	10	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.2%	8.1%	3.3%	4.89	4.98	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		321	0	337	1424	251	126	43	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.9%	8.7%	3.0%	4.71	4.38	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	75	26	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.9%	8.7%	3.0%	4.71	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		152	38	334	1435	262	161	38	25%	2.2	18.3%	11.2%	7.0%	2.6%	3.45	4.43	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	23	200	860	157	97	23	25%	2.2	18.3%	11.2%	7.0%	2.6%	3.45	4.43	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Townsend (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	16.5%	8.8%	2.7%	—	4.64	17.6%	9.0%	304	-0.05	—	—	—
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	87
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	86
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	86
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	84
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	82
Matt Crouse L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.0%	6.3%	2.0%	.276	4.40	12.2%	4.3%	268	+0.41	3.99	342	81
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	80
Adam Wolf L 2022 · 3.91 FIP	25	SW	3.91	19.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.292	4.18	16.8%	5.9%	109	+0.27	3.91	383	78
Ryan Kellogg L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.4%	5.8%	2.2%	.359	4.33	12.3%	7.1%	64	+0.34	3.65	446	77
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	77
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	75
Jose Molina L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	14.4%	8.9%	2.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	144	75
Samuel Strickland L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	24	SW	4.87	19.5%	7.3%	4.5%	.337	3.53	20.1%	14.4%	148	-1.34	2.91	292	75
Colin Rodgers L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	24	SW	4.36	16.8%	9.7%	2.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	313	74
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2019 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	13.5%	6.9%	3.2%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	184	73
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	72
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	72
Carson Teel L 2021 · 5.34 FIP	25	SW	5.34	16.2%	6.7%	5.0%	.296	4.26	17.7%	10.6%	63	-1.08	3.43	248	72
Trevor Belicek L 2016 · 3.87 FIP	23	SW	3.87	16.3%	6.7%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	142	72
Alec Gamboa L 2022 · 5.36 FIP	25	SW	5.36	14.8%	13.1%	3.4%	.287	3.96	15.8%	4.0%	169	-1.40	1.46	439	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	93	17.4%	8.8%	1.13	4.70
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38