Blake Townsend
P
Frisco RoughRiders
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'4" / 245 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.2%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%11.5%
IP67
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 2 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 5 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 21 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 20 | 0 | 29 | 134 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 18.3% | 17.5% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 5.74 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 35 | 0 | 48 | 211 | 55 | 21 | 1 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 3.38 | 3.33 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 33 | 0 | 38 | 169 | 36 | 19 | 1 | 17.4% | 14.7% | 0.8% | 2.35 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 34 | 12 | 92 | 368 | 81 | 23 | 7 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 1.76 | 3.85 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 2 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 4 | 4 | 5 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 67 | 285 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 74 | 319 | 61 | 29 | 13 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 4.80 | 3.95 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 67 | 285 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.32 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 62 | 264 | 55 | 24 | 8 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 52 | 23 | 8 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 50 | 23 | 7 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 40 | 21 | 7 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 37 | 20 | 7 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 19 | 235 | 1008 | 190 | 111 | 25 | 18.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 3.02 | 4.25 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 16 | 200 | 857 | 161 | 94 | 21 | 18.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 3.02 | 4.25 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Townsend (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.34 | 20.9% | 12.2% | 200 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 90 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 89 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 89 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 89 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 89 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 200 | 88 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 88 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .304 | 4.45 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 276 | +1.08 | 3.37 | 353 | 87 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 186 | 87 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 86 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 86 |
| Sam Moll L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.80 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .329 | 2.83 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 57 | -0.97 | 2.35 | 451 | 86 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 85 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 84 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.47 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 1.1% | .280 | 5.07 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 364 | +1.60 | 3.47 | 431 | 84 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 84 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.68 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | .352 | 4.78 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 129 | +0.10 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Scott Alexander L 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .240 | 3.29 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 184 | -0.21 | 2.82 | 414 | 84 |
| Brian Clark L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 248 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$5M | ||