Blake Townsend

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 245 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	33	0	38	2.35	3.05	21.3%	11.2%	—	K 17.4% · BB 14.7% · FIP 3.93
2025	24	MIX3 levels	34	12	92	1.76	3.08	22.0%	6.2%	—	K 17.7% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.87
2026	25	MIX2 levels	23	21	105	4.78	4.62	20.4%	11.1%	—	K 16.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 5.33
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	1	0	1	5.19	5.19	16.2%	10.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBTEX	25	0	26	5.12	5.13	16.7%	10.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBTEX	33	0	35	5.11	5.15	17.0%	10.4%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsIrwin Delgado (age 26) · Nick Dombkowski (age 25) · Luis Perez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%16.2%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%5.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	2	2	5	25	8	0	1	100%	2.7	32.0%	0.0%	32.0%	4.0%	6.75	2.59	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	2	2	5	25	8	0	1	100%	2.7	32.0%	0.0%	32.0%	4.0%	6.75	2.54	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	15	67	26	7	1	60%	3.1	26.7%	11.2%	15.6%	2.8%	4.11	3.78	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	3	15	67	26	7	1	60%	3.1	38.8%	10.4%	28.4%	1.5%	4.11	1.93	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	29	134	37	18	3	0%	1.5	18.3%	17.5%	0.8%	3.8%	4.60	5.83	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	0	29	134	37	18	3	0%	1.5	27.6%	13.4%	14.2%	2.2%	4.60	3.75	—
2023	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	35	0	48	211	55	21	1	0%	1.4	19.3%	11.7%	7.5%	0.7%	3.38	3.34	—
2023	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	35	0	48	211	55	21	1	0%	1.4	26.1%	10.0%	16.1%	0.5%	3.38	2.39	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	38	169	36	19	1	0%	1.2	17.4%	14.7%	2.7%	0.8%	2.35	3.93	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	38	169	36	19	1	0%	1.2	17.4%	14.7%	2.7%	0.8%	2.35	3.93	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	38	169	36	19	1	0%	1.2	21.3%	11.2%	10.1%	0.6%	2.35	3.05	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	12	92	368	81	23	7	35%	2.7	17.7%	7.1%	10.6%	2.5%	1.76	3.87	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	12	92	368	81	23	7	35%	2.7	17.7%	7.1%	10.6%	2.5%	1.76	3.87	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	12	92	368	81	23	7	35%	2.7	22.0%	6.2%	15.8%	1.9%	1.76	3.08	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	105	461	94	51	15	91%	4.6	16.7%	11.8%	4.9%	3.9%	4.78	5.33	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	105	461	94	51	15	91%	4.6	16.7%	11.8%	4.9%	3.9%	4.78	5.33	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	105	461	94	51	15	91%	4.6	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.3%	4.78	4.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.2%	10.7%	5.4%	3.1%	5.19	5.19	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	67	0	70	296	50	31	9	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.5%	6.2%	3.2%	5.12	5.13	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	57	0	60	252	43	26	8	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.4%	6.6%	3.2%	5.11	5.15	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	51	0	53	225	38	24	8	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.5%	6.5%	3.4%	5.17	5.23	-0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	TEX	46	0	48	203	34	22	7	0%	1.0	16.8%	10.8%	6.0%	3.6%	5.29	5.39	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	25	0	26	110	18	12	3	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.5%	6.2%	3.2%	5.12	5.13	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	33	0	35	148	25	15	5	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.4%	6.6%	3.2%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	36	0	38	160	27	17	5	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.5%	6.5%	3.4%	5.17	5.23	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	TEX	36	0	38	160	27	17	6	0%	1.1	16.8%	10.8%	6.0%	3.6%	5.29	5.39	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		131	0	137	580	98	61	19	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.6%	6.3%	3.4%	5.18	4.86	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	89	28	0%	1.1	16.9%	10.6%	6.3%	3.4%	5.18	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		152	38	334	1435	263	161	38	25%	2.2	18.3%	11.2%	7.1%	2.6%	3.45	4.43	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	23	200	860	157	97	23	25%	2.2	18.3%	11.2%	7.1%	2.6%	3.45	4.43	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 91 IPFIP 4.91 → 5.77 (+0.86)K% 19.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.40%	—	×0.810	15.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×1.100	11.91%
HR / BF /BF	3.78%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.91 → 5.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 15 IPFIP 2.44 → 2.60 (+0.16)K% 26.6% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.56%	—	×0.860	22.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.44 → 2.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 66 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.83 (+0.70)K% 19.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.85%	—	×0.810	16.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.87%	—	×1.100	7.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷0.891	×1.200	2.06%

Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 24 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.99 (+0.97)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.10%	—	×1.150	5.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.06%	÷1.048	×1.250	3.65%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 29 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.93 (+0.71)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.56%	—	×0.770	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.78%	—	×1.150	14.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.175	×1.250	0.80%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 9 IPFIP 2.40 → 2.73 (+0.34)K% 16.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.810	13.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.100	6.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.844	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.40 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AModesto Nuts · 48 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.34 (+0.92)K% 26.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.07%	—	×0.740	19.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.95%	—	×1.180	11.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.47%	÷0.883	×1.300	0.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AModesto Nuts · 19 IPFIP 4.25 → 5.83 (+1.59)K% 24.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.69%	—	×0.740	18.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×1.180	17.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷0.855	×1.300	3.76%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Townsend (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	16.2%	10.7%	3.1%	—	5.17	16.9%	6.4%	183	-0.02	—	—	—
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	86
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	81
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	79
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	79
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	78
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	77
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	76
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	76
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	76
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	76
Jose Molina L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	14.4%	8.9%	2.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	144	76
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	75
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	75
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	75
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	74
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	74
José Manuel Fernández L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	26	SU	5.08	13.6%	8.7%	3.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	263	73
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	73
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	73
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	60	16.7%	10.6%	1.27	5.17
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*