James Gonzalez — OGILVIE

James Gonzalez P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 255 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%18.7%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	4	19	80	22	5	1	57%	2.7	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	1.7%	4.82	3.47	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	7	4	19	80	22	5	1	57%	2.7	27.5%	6.2%	21.3%	1.2%	4.82	2.24	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	28	116	27	6	1	40%	2.8	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	0.0%	2.25	2.31	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	4	28	116	27	6	1	40%	2.8	23.3%	5.2%	18.1%	0.9%	2.25	2.28	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	79	359	76	36	12	68%	3.6	16.6%	11.2%	5.4%	4.5%	6.15	5.59	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	79	359	76	36	12	68%	3.6	21.2%	10.0%	11.1%	3.3%	6.15	4.52	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	108	479	135	46	11	79%	4.5	21.0%	11.3%	9.8%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	108	479	135	46	11	79%	4.5	21.0%	11.3%	9.8%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	108	479	135	46	11	79%	4.5	28.2%	9.6%	18.6%	2.3%	4.42	3.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	18	121	505	110	38	9	67%	4.5	17.9%	8.4%	9.6%	2.2%	3.41	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	18	121	505	110	38	9	67%	4.5	17.9%	8.4%	9.6%	2.2%	3.41	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	18	121	505	110	38	9	67%	4.5	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	1.8%	3.41	3.19	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	17	17	78	340	83	35	6	100%	4.6	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	2.0%	4.27	3.98	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	17	17	78	340	83	35	6	100%	4.6	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	2.0%	4.27	3.98	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	17	17	78	340	83	35	6	100%	4.6	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	1.8%	4.27	3.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	42	4	74	326	63	37	7	10%	1.8	15.9%	10.9%	5.0%	2.4%	5.25	4.45	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	42	4	74	326	63	37	7	10%	1.8	15.9%	10.9%	5.0%	2.4%	5.25	4.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	OAK	13	2	18	84	18	11	1	15%	1.4	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	1.2%	6.00	3.60	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	OAK	29	2	56	242	45	26	6	7%	1.9	18.6%	10.7%	7.9%	2.5%	5.01	4.25	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	OAK	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.8%	7.8%	2.6%	4.70	4.70	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	80	351	68	40	8	—	—	19.3%	11.3%	8.0%	2.2%	5.21	4.47	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	104	0	109	461	88	48	12	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	2.6%	4.65	4.64	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	102	0	108	454	88	47	12	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	2.7%	4.63	4.65	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	99	0	104	441	86	46	12	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.67	4.71	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	95	0	100	421	81	44	13	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	3.0%	4.76	4.83	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	OAK	89	0	94	396	75	43	13	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.8%	8.0%	3.2%	4.91	5.01	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	50	0	53	224	43	23	6	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	2.6%	4.61	4.60	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	68	0	71	300	58	31	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	2.6%	4.59	4.61	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	77	0	81	342	66	36	9	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	79	0	83	350	67	37	10	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.79	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	OAK	77	0	81	342	65	37	11	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.8%	8.0%	3.1%	4.87	4.97	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		351	0	369	1557	299	164	44	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.69	4.36	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	89	24	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.69	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		149	81	507	2205	407	224	59	54%	3.4	18.4%	10.2%	8.3%	2.7%	4.44	4.29	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	32	200	870	161	88	23	54%	3.4	18.4%	10.2%	8.3%	2.7%	4.44	4.29	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	18.7%	10.8%	2.6%	—	4.67	19.3%	8.9%	321	-0.03	—	—	—
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	87
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	85
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	84
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	83
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	83
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	80
Adam Wolf L 2022 · 3.91 FIP	25	SW	3.91	19.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.292	4.18	16.8%	5.9%	109	+0.27	3.91	383	78
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	76
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	76
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	76
Colin Rodgers L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	24	SW	4.36	16.8%	9.7%	2.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	313	75
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	75
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	74
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	74
Zack Thompson L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP-	4.50	22.8%	12.9%	3.1%	.355	4.69	23.0%	10.8%	107	+0.19	2.03	402	73
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	25	SW	4.71	23.8%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.59	15.7%	5.5%	157	+0.88	2.06	402	72
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	72
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	72
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	97	19.2%	10.6%	1.09	4.72
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48